- 13 Apr 2014 04:03
#14390278
Over the past fifty years massive immigration from non-white, or more aptly, non-European countries, has rapidly changed the face of the United States. Going from nearly 90% of the population in 1960, 'white' Americans have declined to a historic low of 63% of the total population, per the 2010 census. Correlatively, the white voting share has gone from nearly 88% in the 1988 election to 72% in the last election; with the 2012 election being also notable for the fact President Obama was reelected with the lowest level of white support ever at 39%--an electoral predicament offset by the fact he won more the 2/3rds of every non-white voting group, if we consider Hispanics as non-white too.
Moreover, looking forward, demographics show that America will no longer be a white-majority country after 2048--whites will retain a numerical plurality but will certainly lack the hegemonic electoral clout they once had. These forecasts given the current composition of the Republican party being 90% white seem to be the writing on the wall; the Republican party in its current racial composition will not be able to win national elections if the Democratic voting advantage with non-whites continues. To note, the catch all 'non-white' grouping I'm using is obviously a little too convenient--Asians, Hispanics, and blacks are all culturally very different groups that, on par, have pretty divergent interests and the recent electoral trends are certainly not, by any means, permanent.
However, what I've found rather revealing in a recent Pew research poll was that most political views broke down completely on racial lines. Obama approval: white majority disapproves; non-whites, whether Hispanic, Asian, or black, overwhelmingly approve. More government, more services: white majority disagrees; all non-whites, as in the last question, overwhelmingly agree. Ask about less government and services and the results are flipped but the clear racial divide remains; whites run conservative, non-whites liberal.
Even among the 18-29 year old group where there is much more consensus on social issues, when the issues turn to ideological views on government or fiscal matters, the racial divide between whites and non-whites returns; with the former, of course, trending conservative.
From these trends I start to hypothesize three conclusions:
1. The ideological base of American conservatism, at least fiscally, in smaller, limited government, on average, seems to have restricted appeal to mainly white Americans.
2. As whites continue to decrease as a share of the electorate, the Republican party ideologically will have to shift left as the growing non-white electorate changes the national political calculus and the country as whole becomes more centre-left than right--maybe more like Europe ideologically: defense reduced further, more social welfare, etc.
3. There might be a cultural element irrespective of the short-term political interest of both white and non-white voting groups. To elaborate, 'native' white-Americans may sense a greater connection to the ideals of the United States at its founding, or their ideological conception of that founding, regardless of the country's current governmental composition. That is, small, constitutionally bound, limited republican government, an emphasis on private associations/charity rather than social welfare, and relatively free, low taxed market economy.
Where as, non-white groups, coming from non-Western cultures with little to no ideological connection to the classic Enlightenment political thought or classical economics would culturally be distinct. Instead, they would tend ideologically to more statist models of government, higher government spending, more services, higher taxation, wealth redistribution--basically a 'social justice' conception of government, one focused more on wealth and racial inequality than maximizing economic growth.
TL;DR: Whites are decreasing, various non-white minorities are increasing as a share of national electorate. Contemporary elections show pretty stratified racial divide in political ideology between white and non-white Americans and public opinion polls seems to correlate this as well, even cross generationally. Main questions: Does this spell doom for American conservatism? How much does cultural heritage determine white and non-white political ideology and voting patterns?
Moreover, looking forward, demographics show that America will no longer be a white-majority country after 2048--whites will retain a numerical plurality but will certainly lack the hegemonic electoral clout they once had. These forecasts given the current composition of the Republican party being 90% white seem to be the writing on the wall; the Republican party in its current racial composition will not be able to win national elections if the Democratic voting advantage with non-whites continues. To note, the catch all 'non-white' grouping I'm using is obviously a little too convenient--Asians, Hispanics, and blacks are all culturally very different groups that, on par, have pretty divergent interests and the recent electoral trends are certainly not, by any means, permanent.
However, what I've found rather revealing in a recent Pew research poll was that most political views broke down completely on racial lines. Obama approval: white majority disapproves; non-whites, whether Hispanic, Asian, or black, overwhelmingly approve. More government, more services: white majority disagrees; all non-whites, as in the last question, overwhelmingly agree. Ask about less government and services and the results are flipped but the clear racial divide remains; whites run conservative, non-whites liberal.
Even among the 18-29 year old group where there is much more consensus on social issues, when the issues turn to ideological views on government or fiscal matters, the racial divide between whites and non-whites returns; with the former, of course, trending conservative.
From these trends I start to hypothesize three conclusions:
1. The ideological base of American conservatism, at least fiscally, in smaller, limited government, on average, seems to have restricted appeal to mainly white Americans.
2. As whites continue to decrease as a share of the electorate, the Republican party ideologically will have to shift left as the growing non-white electorate changes the national political calculus and the country as whole becomes more centre-left than right--maybe more like Europe ideologically: defense reduced further, more social welfare, etc.
3. There might be a cultural element irrespective of the short-term political interest of both white and non-white voting groups. To elaborate, 'native' white-Americans may sense a greater connection to the ideals of the United States at its founding, or their ideological conception of that founding, regardless of the country's current governmental composition. That is, small, constitutionally bound, limited republican government, an emphasis on private associations/charity rather than social welfare, and relatively free, low taxed market economy.
Where as, non-white groups, coming from non-Western cultures with little to no ideological connection to the classic Enlightenment political thought or classical economics would culturally be distinct. Instead, they would tend ideologically to more statist models of government, higher government spending, more services, higher taxation, wealth redistribution--basically a 'social justice' conception of government, one focused more on wealth and racial inequality than maximizing economic growth.
TL;DR: Whites are decreasing, various non-white minorities are increasing as a share of national electorate. Contemporary elections show pretty stratified racial divide in political ideology between white and non-white Americans and public opinion polls seems to correlate this as well, even cross generationally. Main questions: Does this spell doom for American conservatism? How much does cultural heritage determine white and non-white political ideology and voting patterns?
"History suggests that capitalism is a necessary condition for political freedom. Clearly it is not a sufficient condition."
-Milton Friedman
-Milton Friedman