Preconditions for revolutions - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15125489
I have the impression that its not enough that things are terrible but that people must have hope for a better alternative. Otherwise one accepts ones fate as one accepts the inevitability of death.

So what actually creates the conditions ripe for revolution rather than being shit?
#15125495
Being denied fundamental human rights and all means of peaceful protest & democratic methods been have tried and failed, or the inability to even try such peaceful protests without a high likelihood of serious harm ie: by a repressive & tyrannical government.
#15125502
Wellsy wrote:I have the impression that its not enough that things are terrible but that people must have hope for a better alternative. Otherwise one accepts ones fate as one accepts the inevitability of death.

So what actually creates the conditions ripe for revolution rather than being shit?


Have you read The Anatomy of Revolution by Crane Brinton? It lists a few conditions. I think the Wikipedia article about the book has a concise summary:

Wiki wrote:Fall of the old regime

The revolutions begin with problems in the pre-revolutionary regime. These include problems functioning—"government deficits, more than usual complaints over taxation, conspicuous governmental favoring of one set of economic interests over another, administrative entanglements and confusions". There are also social problems, such as the feeling by some that careers are not "open to talents", and economic power is separated from political power and social distinction. There is a "loss of self-confidence among many members of the ruling class", the "conversion of many members of that class to the belief that their privileges are unjust or harmful to society" (p. 65). "Intellectuals" switch their allegiance away from the government (p. 251). In short, "the ruling class becomes politically inept" (p. 252).

Financial problems play an important role, as "three of our four revolutions started among people who objected to certain taxes, who organized to protest them .... even in Russia in 1917 the financial problems were real and important" (p. 78).

The revolutions' enemies and supporters disagree over whether plots and manipulation by revolutionists, or the corruption and tyranny of the old regime are responsible for the old regime's fall. Brinton argues both are right, as both the right circumstances and active agitation are necessary for the revolution to succeed (p. 85–6).

At some point in the first stages of the revolutions "there is a point where constituted authority is challenged by illegal acts of revolutionists" and the response of security forces is strikingly unsuccessful. In France in 1789 the "king didn't really try" to subdue riots effectively. In England the king "didn't have enough good soldiers". In Russia "at the critical moment the soldiers refused to march against the people" and instead joined them (p. 88).
#15125514
Wellsy wrote:So what actually creates the conditions ripe for revolution rather than being shit?

Class consciousness, but alienation is important too. They may even be related: alienation ---> class consciousness. Under capitalism at least.
#15125520
Beren wrote:Class consciousness, but alienation is important too. They may even be related: alienation ---> class consciousness. Under capitalism at least.

So you need agitation for an alternative amidst the shit show to overcome the hopeless fatalism?

I’m wondering what examples there are in building as much as we’re certainly in nee conditions which can’t be capitalized upon by a vanguard party or anything like that.
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