The psychologist Philip Tetlock is well-known for having authored
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? which is a rather academic treatise on how well various pundits and other professionals actually did predicting future events and also a more down-to-earth, practical guide to how one can actually improve one's own thinking about what is likely true or false,
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.
The blurb from Amazon states:
"In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from [the] elite group [of highly successful forecasters]. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods.
It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic."
So let's take stock of what feminists and the SocJus movement in general tend to do from that bolded list:
- Gather evidence from a variety of sources: no
- Think probabilistically: no
- Work in teams: yes, although they are highly dysfunctional
- Keep score: no
- Be willing to admit error or change course: hell no
They get half credit for the third criterion (and I'm being generous here) and zero for the others, for a total of 10/100. Final grade: F.
Why is it OK for these people to try to fill my head with shit?