[colliric]

A great day for the Labor party, Perhaps the best of this governments second term....

Now is the time for the Greens to go. No more preferences, no more piggybacking into parliament. It's sink or swim for them now. Watch as Labor eventually tries to poach a few of 'em, well one of them at least...

A bad day in the history of the Greens, a great day for Labor.

Labor has been waiting for the Greens to do this for months.

[GandalfTheGrey]

Great day for long-term viability of the Greens actually.

Also, labor will have no choice but to continue preferencing them in many electorates. They have to preference someone - whats the choice, liberal? National? CTA? - or their closest ideological brethren the Greens? Its a no-brainer. In fact Milne is showing real vision - clearly defining the Greens as ideologically independent of labor, but knowing that in most cases labor will have no choice but to keep preferencing them - and in the case of the Greens holding the balance of power, will always (well almost always) choose greens over the coalition or any other right/centre-right block.

Interesting also that Milne made a specific pitch for retaining Melbourne. I would have given it up as a lost cause, but maybe they have their own research suggesting otherwise? Good luck to them.

[colliric]

Great day for long-term viability of the Greens actually.

Also, labor will have no choice but to continue preferencing them in many electorates. They have to preference someone - whats the choice, liberal? National? CTA? - or their closest ideological brethren the Greens? Its a no-brainer. .

Have you forgotten that Bob Brown promised the Greens would NEVER preference deal ever again following the disaster that was the 2010 Victorian state election, and the "Greens are the devil" statement from John Brumby that sabotaged(Intentionally OR unintentionally!) the individual preference deals? A "threat" Bob made good on with the following state election in NSW by not allowing colleges to do preference deals?

Labor has the freedom it wants to preference whoever they damn well like... Hence they have finally started putting the boot into the Greens. They're free to say "Bob cut the preference ties first, and Christine ended the marriage".... Labor couldn't be happier at the moment, they've finally got a bit of a break here and something to celebrate about. Heck I'm voting Liberal, and I'm happy for them too right now! No choice my ass.... Their choice is let the Green run roughshod over them, or say "Better the devil you know", Greens Last and Liberals second last.

Milne is smart enough to realise they're fighting for their life here, so of cause she's going to campaign to save Melbourne. Polls have suggested the Labor party is likewise going to have to defend as many of it's swing seats as possible as it STILL looks like a crushing Coalition victory is on the cards.

They only have the 1 seat remember, not as if they have the luxury of letting their only seat go without a fight.

Liberal Party hates the Greens(Ideologically opposed), Labor also hates the Greens(as their own personal Judas/Brutus party, and on labour ideology).... The question is, is their hatred if each other so great that it outweighs their bipartisan hatred of the Greens? My opinion is, no.

[AVT]

It is just playing politics, the Greens know Gillard is a sinking ship so they are trying to get as far away as possible (while still pretty much honouring their agreement with Labor) before the election. The Greens know that Labor is bleeding votes and they are hoping to pick up the left leaning deserters by presenting themselves as having nothing to do with this governments failures.

[colliric]

It is just playing politics, the Greens know Gillard is a sinking ship so they are trying to get as far away as possible (while still pretty much honouring their agreement with Labor) before the election. The Greens know that Labor is bleeding votes and they are hoping to pick up the left leaning deserters by presenting themselves as having nothing to do with this governments failures.

Meanwhile Labor is now free to tell the classic childrens story, The Green Devil or How I was Stabbed in the Back "by Lindsay Tanner, John Brumby et al" to the rest of the country.

[GandalfTheGrey]

Labor has the freedom it wants to preference whoever they damn well like... Hence they have finally started putting the boot into the Greens. They're free to say "Bob cut the preference ties first, and Christine ended the marriage".... Labor couldn't be happier at the moment, they've finally got a bit of a break here and something to celebrate about. Heck I'm voting Liberal, and I'm happy for them too right now! No choice my ass.... Their choice is let the Green run roughshod over them, or say "Better the devil you know", Greens Last and Liberals second last.

Labor are not going to choose liberal over greens, thats just absurd.

Or if they do, it will only be in seats where it won't make any difference.

Its very simple: greens will never in a million years side with the coalition against labor - and thats exactly why Milne and labor can engage in this sort of mudslinging against each other; because both sides know that, through simple lack of alternative choices, they cannot separate. I don't care what Brown or Brumby or Tanner says - this basic arrangement cannot change.

edit: an interesting piece on the battle for Melbourne:

The bad news for the greens is they need an improbable 13% swing in order to get over the line on primaries alone. The good news is that if they manage to get 40% primary, they may get over the line on leaked liberal preferences. Interestingly, last election one third of liberal voters defied the liberal how-to-vote cards and preferenced greens. Just goes to show that the obsession over preferencing in lower house seats should be taken with a grain of salt.

[colliric]

That is a very good article... You do realize it shows how grim Bandt's prospects are.... If in this particular seat Labor preferences against the Greens, and the Liberals preference Labor, then Labor is most likely certain to win it.

It's really such an easy decision after all: Preference Greens in safe seats(as in seats the Greens aren't even close in), Preference the Liberals in Melbourne(thereby most likely winning the seat, justifying the decision).

[GandalfTheGrey]

Preference the Liberals in Melbourne(thereby most likely winning the seat, justifying the decision).

col, are you sure you understand how the preferential system works?

Labor preferences won't mean didly squat for anything in Melbourne. Why? Because the TPP runoff will be between labor and greens - thus the preference of both parties won't be counted. The only preferences that will really matter in Melbourne will be liberal - as the last party that will be eliminated.

[colliric]

col, are you sure you understand how the preferential system works?

Labor preferences won't mean didly squat for anything in Melbourne. Why? Because the TPP runoff will be between labor and greens - thus the preference of both parties won't be counted. The only preferences that will really matter in Melbourne will be liberal - as the last party that will be eliminated.

And obviously the Greens are going to be last this time.... Still looks grim for Bandt and the greens.

[GandalfTheGrey]

last on the liberals? Of course they will - just like they were in 2010. But if 1/3 of liberal voters defy the how to vote cards again, then it may be just enough to get the greens over the line. Depending on the green primary vote. Everything hinges on the primary vote.

[Salohcin]

It's kind of pointless anyway. Another split parliament is excessively unlikely. So the only power the greens can hope to have is in the senate anyway.

Edit: Now that I think about it...that goes for the Labor party too (baring a miracle).

[Ahovking]

Just going to throw this out here, The greens are going to be absolutely destroyed this following Federal election.

[AVT]

Just going to throw this out here, The greens are going to be absolutely destroyed this following Federal election.

They will get around 10 %, Milne played her card too early, most people will have forgotten them come election time.

[colliric]

They will get around 10 %, Milne played her card too early, most people will have forgotten them come election time.

Labor should regain the seat of Melbourne based on the Liberal Preferences... Which Gandalf seems to have totally forgotten actually went, through a preference deal, to the Greens in 2010, the only damn reason Bandt got his seat.

He was retiring from it, but boy Lindsay Tanner was PISSED off about that.