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By colliric
#14599855
I would disagree but only from a certain glass-half-full point of view. The 40% membership vote is what helped him get there(as the votes were weighted overall and he polled above 50% overall). If it was as low as was being feared he wouldn't have taken leadership.

Rudd designed the system basically to stop the whole "stab the PM in the back during the first term" thing by increasing the overall difficulty and basically turning it into a minor internal election. For Bill to be defeated before losing an election he would have to suddenly turn into a literal turd.... It won't happen. Labor Members wouldn't vote out a first termer in such a manner, it's a deeply unpopular move. They'd likely buck any move by the caucus to oust a first termer.

The Liberal party needs to adopt a similar system.

Personally I'm with Jeff Kennett on this.... Turnbull is a self-centred destabilizing opportunist and has never been a teamplayer. Next election I'll probably vote for the Nationals first and probably Clive Palmer second if Turnbull's leading the Liberals. Maybe even put Labor up a spot or two. Self..... Self...... Self.....

Couldn't even wait till the bloody bi-election was over.
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By unbalanced zealot
#14599886
I don't think Shorten would be voted out as PM ... never can tell tho how things are going to pan out.

Voted out as opp. leader ... I reckon better than 50% it'll come to pass before 2016 election. Trouble is ALP has few outstanding replacements.
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By Ornate Placebo
#14600464
Albanese is quite popular, and has been pretty far from the spotlight in recent times. He could be a successful candidate.
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By Ornate Placebo
#14600472
Is his seat really that marginal?

Candidates pushed toward leadership are generally in the safest seats. Grayndler would need a swing of about 20% to go to the Liberals or Greens.
By GandalfTheGrey
#14600476
the libs aren't in contention. Its one of those funny 3-way seats where one of the major parties thumps everyone on primaries, but the primaries of second place plus the preferences of the other is almost enough to put second place in contention. 2010 was a scare for Alabanese because the libs preferenced the greens (ahead of labor), but 2013 was a walkover because the libs stopped doing that. But I can't see them being so charitable towards labor next time - and whats more the Green vote in those inner-city areas is definitely strengthening, largely due to a massive grassroots campaign by the Greens. Pliberseck's Sydney seat is in a similar situation - though you would think her bigger profile would get her over the line.
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By Ornate Placebo
#14600486
Yeah I know that the margin was quite small in 2010 due to preferences. I would assume that, even if the Liberals preference the Greens, Labor would come through with a similar margin as 2010, as any votes the Liberals lose (and they should lose a quite a few) will mostly go to Labor anyway, and in 2013 Liberal and Green votes combined only just pipped Labor's votes. Still, you're right that if it is a risk it may well stymie his chances of leadership, and Di Natale is doing well so even a marginal swing to the greens could put the seat in doubt - assuming you are correct that the Liberals will stop preferencing Labor first.
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By unbalanced zealot
#14600587
Really don't know how far Pliberseck could go? She could maybe take over from Shorten following a 2016 loss but not sure if she has the mental toughness to take on a campain within a year. I really think many in the ALP are open to an alternative but no-one is there ready to go. A kind a Shane Watson scenario maybe ... keep plugging away with Shorten and hope he comes good somehow?
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By colliric
#14600805
I doubt the Liberals will preference the Greens again, too much tension between the Greens and Nationals. Turnbull would probably have to continue current preferencing policy under the Coalitions most recent agreement. Reverting to the previous "Government at all costs" position is very unpopular. It's also a risky move alienating the conservative faction of the party who orchestrated the position.

Likely "better the devil you know" will continue.

... keep plugging away with Shorten and hope he comes good somehow?


Rudd's system of leadership election is basically designed with this in mind. It gives the elected leader his one shot at election-winning greatness and all but ensures an election defeat would be required to topple a leader. Alot of people say Rudd's "Sorry" is his greatest contribution as PM, but personally I thought in the longer term it will be considered his "social media circus" minded consolidation to the Labor leadership which finally ensures stability. They were designed to return labor leadership spills to their traditional spot after an election loss.
By GandalfTheGrey
#14600863
colliric wrote:I doubt the Liberals will preference the Greens again


They almost certainly will if it means unseating a labor member - as they are now openly contemplating:

The Liberal Party is considering ending its policy of preferencing the Greens last in every electorate in a bid to put the ALP under greater pressure in inner-city seats.


Tellingly, party president Michael Kroger questions why the libs have “dealt itself out of the game” under the current policy.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nationa ... 43f517c64f
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By colliric
#14600873
GandalfTheGrey wrote:They almost certainly will if it means unseating a labor member - as they are now openly contemplating


The Nationals have already dictated terms over Climate Change policy and Turnbull is still singing the praises of "Direct Action" as a result...

I doubt they'll be happy to let Green Preferences go through to the keeper as well.

Truth is either party will probably be able to win the election comfortably without doing that(as it usually only affects a small amount of seats anyway), so there's no real point in changing it anyway. It's tempting but ultimately who wants to see the Greens grow their representation through preferences. If they want to grow they'll have to do it the old fashioned way now.

Besides when Brown was in front he made Green policy NOT to preference deal, and if they're not getting preferences back why bother?
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By unbalanced zealot
#14601673
Malcolm Turnbull's cabinet
Prime Minister - Malcolm Turnbull
Deputy Prime Minister and Infrastructure and Regional Development Minister - Warren Truss
Cabinet Secretary - Arthur Sinodinis
Indigenous Affairs Minister - Nigel Scullion
Foreign Minister - Julie Bishop
Trade and Investment Minister - Andrew Robb
Attorney General - George Brandis
Treasurer - Scott Morrison
Assistant Treasurer and Small Business Minister - Kelly O'Dwyer
Finance Minister - Mathias Cormann
Agriculture and Water Minister - Barnaby Joyce
Industry, Innovation and Science Minister - Christopher Pyne
Resources, Energy and Northern Australia Minister - Josh Frydenberg
Immigration and Border Protection Minister - Peter Dutton
Environment Minister - Greg Hunt
Health and Sport Minister - Sussan Ley
Defence Minister - Marise Payne
Communications and Arts Minister - Mitch Fifield
Employment Minister and Minister for Women - Michaelia Cash
Social Services Minister - Christian Porter
Education and Training Minister - Simon Birmingham


Good to see Kelly O'Dwyer promoted. Cormann sucks but what can you do, as does Dutton.
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By unbalanced zealot
#14602313
He was ok on Q & A IMO.

At least if he sits there until the next election (Shorten) voters will get a chance to have their say on him and he'll either be our glorious leader or be gone.

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