[pugsville]

So most likely late this year around september.

Turnbull's honeymoon seems over, and the back bench fairly opposed to any real policy change, which means the Coalition government will go to the election having done about stuff all. The Budget deficit much bigger now, after all the rhetoric before the election about dire trouble and need for immediate action, almost nothing has been done. Most of the measures have been rejected by senate , and almost all rejected more firmly in opinion of the public.

So whats the difference between Turnbull and Abbot? Better quality of Press/Media ? Higher quality bafflegab? (as there is no policy difference) Less appalling Gaffs?

Meanwhile Shorten continues to massively underwhelm. Labour to it's credit has released some policies and has made some moves of things like negative gearing (which for me is a no brainer, ineffective policy working against the interest of most Australians costing us all a bloody fortune, but thats just my opinion)

SO whats the feeling about the coming poll,

Will the Coalition find some policies ? [NO]
Will Abbot comeback? [NO]
Will Shorten Make it to the Election? [YES]

Who will win ? [Coalition Marginally not what I want but what I think will happen]

[redcarpet]

Well thankfully the polling show them diving, now neck-to-neck with the ALP. Making it even worse for themselves by talking about increasing the GST in an election year, hehehehe!

[GandalfTheGrey]

Meanwhile Shorten continues to massively underwhelm.

I disagree. I think he is going from strength to strength - though admittedly starting from a pretty low base. Keep in mind that Shorten has already proved his critics wrong - you'll recall as soon as Turnbull took over, the libs and their useful idiots were out in full force declaring that the game was up for Shorten and that at the very least factional infighting was sure to return to the labor party - and probably a change in leadership. Now look at the state of the two parties: its the coalition who are crippled by division, and its the labor party - under Shorten - who is the epitomy of unity.

A Labor win are still long odds, and currently the best case scenario for labor is probably a hung parliament. Having said that, momentum is changing at a remarkable pace - the 2PP is now at 50-50, and while the biggest impediment for labor remains the preferred PM rating, the gap in that is narrowing rapidly. And really, when you think about it, what have the coalition got up their sleeve to change the momentum in their favour? They seem to have decided that the only thing that can do until the election is do nothing - rather than risk sticking their neck out with anything bold policy wise. So where does that leave them? It will probably mean that a) it will be labor who will be setting the policy agenda and be seen as the ones with vision and an agenda, and b) the coalition will continue to be ridiculed for waffling about absolutely nothing, and being prepared to do absolutely nothing. So my question is, how on earth can the coalition expect to put a halt to the momentum that is rapidly gaining in labor's favour?

[redcarpet]

Well as we've seen swinging voters in marginal seats are clearly willing to dump one-term governments if they turn in on themselves, fail to govern for all, etc. We're seeing both with few changes in federal level & Tony's destabilisation.

Makes me feel good; an ALP victory will mean no plebiscite on same-gender marriage. As a gay Australian I'm disturbed and disgusted the willingness to put a social issue of a right to a national vote. It's be a big lid on homophobia that would be lifted. Even if bigots don't riot, it'll be ugly, with an increase in hate crimes and the tabloid media would rabble-rouse even worse.

[pugsville]

the crazy thing about the plebiscite is that it's the policy of the very people (socially conservative mps) who openly say that they will not be bound by the result. the plebiscite was dreamed up to solely stop a vote in parliament, why have the plebiscite if it's not going to actual change anything?

[redcarpet]

Well for one thing is means delaying implimentation, buy time, etc.

We know the 1975 EEC referendum in the UK was to keep Labour united. Well, the split occurred later in thew 1980s, the right of UK Labour din't care anyway.

So it may be Malcom's strategy to prevent social conservatives defecting to being Independent M.Ps (as if it'd be a bad thing!) or a new party from defectors forming, etc. There's nothing stopping them voting against implementing the result afterwards anyway, so it can only be for short-term political gain. With the feared political results only delayed anyway for when in a second term or in Opposition

[pugsville]

well Turnbull has turned out to be every bit incapable of managing the senate as abbot. after today there is very little chance of any co operation from the minor parties as turnbill as declared immediate war on the micro fringe parties in the senate trying for immediate senate reform. while i can see senate reform as a laudable goal this immediate action for the next election means that relations with those cross bench senators has been treated totally. with a hostile senate the Turnbull government now will find it very hard to pass anything. having done almost nothing is the last two years, the budget emergency has bot been addressed at all the defect just keeps going up. unable to manage the senate, unable to manage the economy, problems with the backbench, and seemingly devoid of real policy. all Turnbull has only provided better slogans and soundbites over abbot. turn bill thinks innovation can be funded by slashing basic science research.

if Turnbull was against anything other than the cardboard that is shorten he would already be in bad trouble.

the government has a budget coming out very soon, almost everything that would actually fix the budget has already been ruled out, they have also created a expectation of tax cuts. after the absolute shocker of the first budget, the do thing budget in the second, the government doing nothing again might be risky with the growing trend of australians throwing out first term governments.

[redcarpet]

Even if he doesn't go as far as a leadership spill, T.B's destabilisation only helps turn off Coalition voters & no doubt swinging voters too. It's like every 2 or 3 weeks a new leak or public statement of his latest feet-dragging or undermining effort......he can't shut his gob, lol

[GandalfTheGrey]

while i can see senate reform as a laudable goal this immediate action for the next election means that relations with those cross bench senators has been treated totally. with a hostile senate the Turnbull government now will find it very hard to pass anything.

Which is why he is angling for an early DD election. He's burnt his bridges with the current lot, and I think he's resigned himself to not getting anything through until the election except the senate voting reform bill.

It really highlights how foolish he was not to go for a DD election as soon as he knifed Abbott. It would have been a perfectly understandable course of action to take - to seek an immediate mandate from the people to get the Abbott monkey off his back and start immediately with a new, mandated, economic policy agenda. He could have avoided all this embarassing dithering and waffling, pretending to be starting some great conversation about tax reform, when blind Freddy can see he's just desperately stalling until the election.

[pugsville]

looks like a double dissolution July 2nd election for Australia.


i thought there was reasonable case for reform of senate election laws, but to do so in a hairy then rush to election hardly is a way for sober and good lasting reform of senate elections.

agin there is a reasonable case for some extra anti corruption tribunal to handle construction/unions but to narrow the focus to not include politicians and developers or corporations is to reduce it to a witch hunt of political opponents. the senate would pass a federal icac bill as many of the senators have said. political opportunism.

http://www.theguardian.com/australia-ne ... not-passed

http://www.theguardian.com/australia-ne ... parliament

[redcarpet]

Kind of weird Bill (on workplace relations) to base a DD election on. I would have thought it's be based on something else

[pugsville]

it's merely the pretext, in 1987 when Hawke did it the trigger was the Australia card bill. it was barely mentioned in the campaign and was not even attempted to be passed after.

I suspect corrupt union bogeymen will be prominent in the campaign as what else have the libs got? it's gonna be unions, recalcitrant senate, tax fear about negative gearing causes both falling house prices and rising house prices, and maybe the carbon tax.

[unbalanced zealot]

The Libs will play up the union thing IMO because they'll try to run with MT is not BS. MT only got the job because he's not TA, who only got the job because he wasn't KR or JG.

[redcarpet]

Bernardi risks Lib split with new party

Jared Owens
The Australian
March 26, 2016 12:00AM

South Australian Cory Bernardi and his wife Sinead. ‘My mission (is) to build a movement that will change politics’.
Rightwing Liberal senator Cory Bernardi has laid the groundwork to launch a new political force, the Australian Conservatives, to “give a voice back to Australia’s forgotten people”.
In a move that risks further splintering the Turnbull government, a company controlled by the South Australian senator’s wife has applied to trademark the name and logos of the new group, with the stated aim of providing the “services of a political party”.

Senator Bernardi, who in ­September warned of a possible schism of the Liberal Party if Malcolm Turnbull did not uphold the party’s “distinctly conservative” character, yesterday described the Australian Conservatives as a program of his existing Conservative Leadership Foundation.
He would not provide further details about what the program ­involved or give an assurance he would not leave the Liberals to lead a breakaway party.

In a rousing email to supporters on Monday, Senator Bernardi ­referred repeatedly to the “silent majority of Australian Conservatives” who were challenging “the leftist agenda of big government and decaying society”.
“Unless the mainstream parties connect with the ‘forgotten people’ they will choose a different path. It’s a global phenomenon and would be foolish to think it won’t emerge in Australia,” he wrote, citing the rise of Donald Trump.
“My mission (is) to build a movement that will change politics. To fight against the tyranny of political correctness and give a voice back to Australia’s forgotten people.

“That’s what Sir Robert Menzies sought to do over 70 years ago in forming the Liberal Party. It’s time Australian Conservatives ­reclaimed Menzies’s vision.”

After Mr Turnbull seized the prime ministership in September, Senator Bernardi raised the prospect of a split in the Liberal Party unless it maintained a “distinctly conservative vision”.

Just when you though they would be careful, given the approaching election, now the Liberal Party is facing a possible split. This is a dream come true for non-Coalition voters. The infighting continues with a possible split in the wings

[pugsville]

please please let bernadi start his own party... could be shades of the DLP.


but is he that stupid? i think it;s more likely to be massive brinkmanship with turn bill, either tow the socially conservative line or i'll pull down the entire liberal party. either support my agenda or i'll wreck the government.

[redcarpet]

please please let bernadi start his own party... could be shades of the DLP.


but is he that stupid? i think it;s more likely to be massive brinkmanship with turn bill, either tow the socially conservative line or i'll pull down the entire liberal party. either support my agenda or i'll wreck the government.

Yes. With the social conservatives in the LPA, they're like a couple dozen or so. Achieving the occasional u-turn. All it takes is a little 'expression of concern' and Malcom grovels to hold them in the same tent. Government by Gossip!

What a bunch!

[pugsville]

corey bernardi is suessful political using his influence to boost his relatively narrow popular support to control many government policies in areas he cares about. i don't like him, i don't like his values or his tactics, but he is being so far very effective.

got to take him seriously,

[GandalfTheGrey]

corey bernardi is suessful political using his influence to boost his relatively narrow popular support to control many government policies in areas he cares about. i don't like him, i don't like his values or his tactics, but he is being so far very effective.

got to take him seriously,

Only because Turnbull is completely spineless.

He needs to call their bluff and demonstrate how marginalised and irrelevant they really are.

[pugsville]

http://www.theguardian.com/australia-ne ... s-dio-wang
'Turnbull said on Sunday it was “hard to predict” whether the ABCC bill would pass the Senate when it resumes for a special sitting from 18 April, but confirmed the government would not be trying to broker a deal with separate talks with the eight crossbenchers but was relying on them to figure out a deal among themselves.'

so the government is not going to even try to negotiate with the cross bench senators but 'rely' on them working out a deal? how is that even possible? surely if there is a deal there must be some interaction?

how can this be even trying in good faith to pass this legislation?

the government is running to an early double dissolution election on this and it's done nothing with this bill for ages, they could have debated it before parliament rose. but Turnbull has neither tried to talk to non-liberals about this. but suddenly it's a desperate issue the requires the senate to be called back early. and if not passed an early election.

this government has done very very little. they ranted and raved about a budget emergency before the last election and have blown out the debt even more and are totally without any real plan to address tis other than bracket creep. they have launched a number of radical thought bubbles and run away from tim every time. they have no clear plans or policies. marcom's innovation thing is merely adds and slogans while education and science research is slashed. really aside from shorten what has this government got going for it? not being abbot?

[redcarpet]

ALP in lead. The tide appears to have fully turned now, assuming the ALP doesn't wreck their chances. And Shorten announces a Royal Commission into the banks;

Labor flags royal commission into banks

The culture of Australia's banks is set to become a battleground in this year's federal election after the government rejected calls by Labor to consider a royal commission into the industry.

Following days of negative publicity prompted by allegations that Westpac Banking Corp manipulated the bank bill swap rate, the mood within the Labor Party was to promise a royal commission if elected but the government said it was not needed because the sector was already adequately regulated.