Federal Election 2016 - Page 4 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#14698348
A-ZLatest
CAPRICORNIA
2/7/16, 7:25am. 79.8% counted
HELD BY:
LNP
50.0%
PREDICT:
ALP ahead
50.7%
+1.5%
ALP

CHISHOLM
2/7/16, 8:52pm. 69.0% counted
HELD BY:
ALP
51.0%
PREDICT:
LIB ahead
50.1%
+1.6%
LIB

COWAN
2/7/16, 6:56am. 77.2% counted
HELD BY:
LIB
54.0%
PREDICT:
ALP ahead
50.7%
+5.2%
ALP

DUNKLEY
2/7/16, 8:11pm. 74.1% counted
HELD BY:
LIB
55.0%
PREDICT:
LIB ahead
50.3%
+5.2%
ALP

FORDE
2/7/16, 5:47pm. 78.7% counted
HELD BY:
LNP
54.0%
PREDICT:
ALP ahead
50.1%
+4.5%
ALP

GILMORE
2/7/16, 7:35am. 85.1% counted
HELD BY:
LIB
53.0%
PREDICT:
LIB ahead
50.2%
+3.6%
ALP

GREY
3/7/16, 2:06am. 77.5% counted
HELD BY:
LIB
63.0%
PREDICT:
NXT ahead
56.1%
+19.7%
NXT

HERBERT
3/7/16, 11:22pm. 82.0% counted
HELD BY:
LNP
56.0%
PREDICT:
ALP ahead
50.6%
+6.8%
ALP

HINDMARSH
3/7/16, 11:57pm. 78.4% counted
HELD BY:
LIB
51.0%
PREDICT:
ALP ahead
50.4%
+2.3%
ALP

PETRIE
earlier today at 3:57am. 81.3% counted
HELD BY:
LNP
50.0%
PREDICT:
LNP ahead
50.8%
+0.3%
LNP


ABC details above. But the AEC data seems more comprehensive because it gives more context if someone delves into the details.

Morrison keeps rabbiting on about them get +5% on postals and he may have a point. What do people think on that?
#14698814
Oh yeh ... go Cory.

Trouble is unless he bring House of Reps along with him, he's just another Senator to throw in with the rest of them.

Say he could bring Andrews or someone else they could have balance of power ... am I thinking this right. Craig Thompson was ejected from the ALP mid term and sat on the cross bench.

This might all get weirder and weirder ... but who in the lower house would align themselves with CB?

PS: Can someone in the Senate even do that? Looking at the PUP I suppose they can.
#14698879
unbalanced zealot wrote:PS: Can someone in the Senate even do that? Looking at the PUP I suppose they can.


There is no ban on party defections. I wish there was.

I agree, it's hard to conceive him getting lower house M.Ps, that would endanger the Coalition getting a majority.
#14699222
In some countries Cory would find himself accused of having committed XYZ illegal activity, and after a short swift trial ... no Cory.

(In his case maybe involving a barnyard ... he seems to have made public in the past some dubious obsessions he has on 'that front')
#14699298
And in a totally surprising development, Igor was premature.

1. Grey has already been won by the libs - fairly easily in the end
2. The coalition is very close to a majority - and is looking at anywhere between 74-77 seats (76 being a majority).

For those interested, the libs are currently quite safe in 73 seats, with 6 seats still up in the air. Of those, Flynn is looking very bad for Labor - who despite their strong lead in the regular votes (3000+), is being absolutely slaughtered in the postals, and on current projections is set to lose by about 1000 votes. On the other hand, two of them, Cowan and Hindmarsh are looking more and more secure for labor. The other 3, Forde, Capricornia and Herbert, are absolute coin tosses at the moment, but if anything would probably all favour libs on current projections.
#14699304
For what its worth, the geeks over at pollbludger are becoming more and more pessimistic about labor's chances in all 3 of Forde, Capricornia and Herbert - based on the current postal swings. I wouldn't call it yet by any means, but 76 seats or above for the coalition is looking the frontrunner at the moment.
#14699640
Barrie Cassidy was saying that once postal finish and absenties come into play the trend will revert back to that of the regular swings in the seats. Hindmarsh is likely to swing ALP as it has a Greek background candidate and postals coming in from Greece will favour him.
#14699687
unbalanced zealot wrote:Barrie Cassidy was saying that once postal finish and absenties come into play the trend will revert back to that of the regular swings in the seats. Hindmarsh is likely to swing ALP as it has a Greek background candidate and postals coming in from Greece will favour him.


Thats certainly true, and in the case of Hindmarsh it will almost certainly save Giorganis. The problem is with the key QLD seats that have massive postals, and they all heavily favour the LNP. And because there are so many, there simply won't be enough outstanding absentees and pre-polls to claw back the deficit. In Flynn, labor had a seemingly unassailable lead of over 2000 votes before postals started. Now they are 7 votes in front with even more postals to come.
#14699688
Gandalf, thanks for typing 'absentees ' (w/ correct spelling) ... I just couldn't fathom the spelling of it when I wrote my post for some reason.

Yep ... the Qld seats look like they are probably all going to fall the Coalition's way. I've been watching the ABC seats in doubt page, and it seems like more postals come in to be counted which just add more time to proceedings.

Personally I would have liked to see at the Coalition at least fall back to 75 to make things interesting. I take it people in nursing homes who use postal votes are generally Coalition inclined?

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