[pugsville]

nothing budget. very little in it.

elected on a mantra of budget emergency the coalition government is a total failure by it's own standards.

[GandalfTheGrey]

nothing budget. very little in it.

By design. The only purpose of this budget was to ensure it is an electoral non-issue. They're even talking down the tax cuts - virtually unheard of in Australian politics.

If nothing else, the coalition have learned from 2014.

[pugsville]

so the elections on and the interest from the electorate seem,s pretty low.

hows the feeling out there? I see the election as pretty even with neither party really cursing through with much of a clear message.

prediction from here I think returned coalition with much reduced majority. unless something starts to give.

the media ads from both sides I find clumsy and insulting.

[redcarpet]

ALP either leading, or it's neck-to-neck in polls. So betting on ALP victory with at least a small majority. If necissary via coalition with ind./Greens

[GandalfTheGrey]

so the elections on and the interest from the electorate seem,s pretty low.

hows the feeling out there? I see the election as pretty even with neither party really cursing through with much of a clear message.

prediction from here I think returned coalition with much reduced majority. unless something starts to give.

the media ads from both sides I find clumsy and insulting.

jeez I thought I was a political junky, but even I'm sick of it already. Not sure what the commercial news stations are doing (never watch them), but ABC has taken to daily wall to wall coverage of the campaign - embedded journalists with each party and all.

I've come to the conclusion that labor can't win this - there primary vote is just too low. Their absolute best case scenario is a hung parliament - which IMO is the best scenario for the nation. I sincerely hope we are entering a sustained period of minority governments.

[pugsville]

the election that no one much cares about is entering;s final weeks.

I have the liberals remaining with a reduced majority , labour picking up maybe half what they need.

the senate could be a complete wildcard, strange things could happen.

[GandalfTheGrey]

But then suddenly like a bolt from the blue, Shorten comes out with what seems to be a devastating scare campaign against the privatisation of medicare.

Don't underestimate this - apparently this has been months in the planning and has reportedly resonated with the focus groups. The timing has clearly been carefully planned - 2 weeks out which hopefully gets the right balance between long enough to cut through but not so long people will get bored with it.

Libs are clearly shaken by it - doing a dramatic and panicked dropping of their plan to outsource the IT records management wing of medicare. Now liberals are frantically rolling out Turnbull signed "guarantee" of medicare remaining public signs all over the country.

Watch this space - it could be a game changer

[unbalanced zealot]

I'm especially interested in the non-ALP/Coalition vote. SA is going to be interesting with Xenophon in play ... I'd love to see them push Jamie Briggs in Mayo and give Pyne a bit of a scare.

[GandalfTheGrey]

Briggs is gone

Others to watch:
-Greens likely to unseat David "oops forgot about my $2 million house" Feeney
-Windsor vs Joyce in New England - too close to call
-Rob Oakshott an outside chance to snatch Cowper off the Nats
- Baby Wyatt Roy will struggle to hold Longman

And perhaps most ominously for the coalition - that famous 'bellwether' seat Eden Monaro has Labor's Mike Kelly well on track to regain the seat he lost in 2013.

I still think 21 seats is beyond Labor - which is what they need to get outright majority. Most likely scenario is a return of the government either with or without a majority. But even if they scrape through with say 3, 4 or 5 seat majority - that could spell chaos for the coalition. How many competing factions will there be suddenly standing up to assert themselves - in the knowledge that they potentially hold the balance of power? The Nats themselves, who will probably get between 7-9 seats will almost certainly hold the balance of power - are they finally going to grow a pair and throw their weight around in relation to things like coal-seam gas and coal mines in the middle of prime farming land?

[unbalanced zealot]

That's a great scenario.

Briggs Windsor Mike Kelly some key Defense related position ?

Never really thought about the Nats having a balance of power, especially if there's discontent with Liberal policies.

[pugsville]

election adds are they just more annoying this time around or am I more jaded ?

I finding mr Turnbull every bit annoying as abbot. didnt abbot commit to health and education funding last election?

[unbalanced zealot]

Thankfully don't have to watch any of the ads in Korea, but we can watch Q&A on inter-net TV. Thought Turnbull did pretty well. Shorten did well too last week. What are they pushing in the ads?

[pugsville]

still not much in very much a plague on both their houses from he general public. a lack lustre campaign.

give the campaign mostly to the libs they have hammered a simpler message, plan, jobs, growth, trust (in liberal economic management) secure borders, and the health and education spending is safe. cant believe that labour did not hammer their credibility after the crap they pulled after the last election as far as "no cuts to health and education: as well as totally failure to live up as economic managers. basiclaly this government has fiddled , blowing out the budget while unable to pass legislation or manage a senate an increasing important skill in this era of politics were a senate majority looks very very unlikely for any party, having declared war on the cross benches before the election , well just good luck incasing anything.

their results are appalling lack of plan, bad economic management, poor jobs growth (increasing casualsation , jobs are being create d just not good ones) and as their extravagant business cuts on massively optimistic assumptums what would libs do as that 'plan' fails? keep blowing out the budget or take the axe to health and education? (yeah i am no fan)

policy - 2 communication - 6

labour has moved around a bit, ran hard onto medicare scare campaign and that malcom's rich. really has not promoted their policies that hard. labour actually has more substantive policies but they are not explain and certainly not effectively sloganised and weaponised in this election.

shorten is poor communicator. policies are a bit middle of the road for mine, too much trying to please everyone and half measures. stuff grand fathering if yu move of negative gearing, get rid of it (run the percentage climbed done over 10 years to soften the impact) but having a privileged class of old investment rankles me.

policy - 5 communication - 2

prediction coalition back with reduced count maybe 5-6 less.( would not be surprised if more indenpendats than labour wins) senate more cross benches. which variety is hard to say. cannot see the coalition having a majority predict stronger cross bench.

[Igor Antunov]

Just went to vote. As always, and like everyone in this region. 1 to Labor, followed by commie novelty parties. If Labor wins I will eventually get my $100/month 1GB fiber to the premises, if they lose I'm stuck with the $140/month 100mb connection on the copper wire network that is so unstable they may never be able to patch it up. I have lost phone/net access 5 times in the past month, it is so iffy and completely disruptive to business. Telstra with their cheap laissez faire infrastructure need a leftist big government stick shoved up their ass.

[unbalanced zealot]

Streaming Anthony Green on ABC via VPN.

Numbers just starting to come in.

[unbalanced zealot]

Brandis is saying Briggs is likely gone in Mayo, apparently .

[unbalanced zealot]

Sophie Mirrabella well down, maybe rid of her.

[redcarpet]

Sophie Mirrabella well down, maybe rid of her.

Rooting for Eric Kerr in Indi, but looks like he won't make history to win that seat for the ALP, pah!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/indi/

[unbalanced zealot]

Anyone but Sophie.

[unbalanced zealot]

Rooting for Eric Kerr in Indi, but looks like he won't make history to win that seat for the ALP, pah!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/indi/

If Wodonga's population grows/diversifies and independents don't run, do you think ALP could get up in not the too distant future?