The Power of Bias in Economics Research - Page 3 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#14865302
That article is suggesting that it can't be filtered out.


I obviously disagree with that conclusion, it flies in the face of the entire history of science.

That gets us into decision theory which gets really complicated(and controversial) really fast. It's not nearly as simple as "responsibility to act".


Nothing is ever simple, I feel compelled to act regardless, I will not stand idly by when I can help reduce suffering just because of informational uncertainty.
#14865313
mikema63 wrote:I obviously disagree with that conclusion, it flies in the face of the entire history of science.


No, it doesn't. If that's your takeaway then you have a very naive conception of science.


Nothing is ever simple, I feel compelled to act regardless, I will not stand idly by when I can help reduce suffering just because of informational uncertainty.


Yeah, well that gung-ho mentality often ends up doing way more harm than good. "Hell is full of good meanings, but heaven is full of good works"
#14865325
"Imre Lakatos and Paul Feyerabend each suggested that because of underdetermination, the difference between empirically successful and unsuccessful theories or research programs is largely a function of the differences in talent, creativity, resolve, and resources of those who advocate them. And at least since the influential work of Thomas Kuhn, one important line of thinking about science has held that it is ultimately the social and political interests (in a suitably broad sense) of scientists themselves which serve to determine their responses to disconfirming evidence and therefore the further empirical, methodological, and other commitments of any given scientist or scientific community.

Mary Hesse suggests that Quinean underdetermination showed why certain “non-logical” and “extra-empirical” considerations must play a role in theory choice, and claims that “it is only a short step from this philosophy of science to the suggestion that adoption of such criteria, that can be seen to be different for different groups and at different periods, should be explicable by social rather than logical factors” (1980, 33).

And perhaps the most prominent modern day inheritors of this line of thinking are those scholars in the sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK) movement and in feminist science studies who argue that it is typically the career interests, political affiliations, intellectual allegiances, gender biases, and/or pursuit of power and influence by scientists themselves which play a crucial or even decisive role in determining precisely which beliefs are abandoned or retained in response to conflicting evidence. The shared argumentative schema here is one on which holist underdetermination ensures that the evidence alone cannot do the work of picking out a single response to such conflicting evidence, thus something else must step in to do the job, and sociologists of scientific knowledge, feminist critics of science, and other interest-driven theorists of science each have their favored suggestions close to hand."
https://plato.stanford.edu/search/searcher.py?query=Underdetermination+of+Scientific+Theory
#14865328
No, it doesn't. If that's your takeaway then you have a very naive conception of science.


That is little more than an unsupported assertion. I could as easily claim that you have an extremely biased view of science that supports your ideological suppositions about reality.

We can accuse each other of bias and naivete all day and not get anywhere.

Yeah, well that gung-ho mentality often ends up doing way more harm than good. "Hell is full of good meanings, but heaven is full of good works"


I don't live my life via platitude.

As for your second post I would find it more compelling if science were a closed discipline disconnected from external criticism and validation. Which since the piece itself is a criticism of the personal biases of scientists and their effects on outcomes is clearly not true.

You'd think, with the level of contempt you seem to hear upon the scientific process, that it had never advanced and could never advance and indeed all human endeavors would fail to ever progress beyond their roots.

It's a flawed endeavor but not so cripplingly flawed as you seem to wish to make out.
#14865353
mikema63 wrote:That is little more than an unsupported assertion.


If you knew anything about the issue or even paid attention to the qualified opinions and published studies presented in this thread you'd know that it's a very well supported assertion.

I could as easily claim that you have an extremely biased view of science that supports your ideological suppositions about reality.


You'd have a hard time backing up that claim, but I welcome you try.

I don't live my life via platitude.


That's an aphorism, not a platitude. You don't think there's any wisdom or general truth in it?

As for your second post I would find it more compelling if science were a closed discipline disconnected from external criticism and validation.


Feyerabend, Kuhn, and Lakatos should have thought of that before they shot their mouths off. :lol:


You'd think, with the level of contempt you seem to hear upon the scientific process, that it had never advanced and could never advance and indeed all human endeavors would fail to ever progress beyond their roots.


I don't have contempt for science, I love science. I love actual real science, my contempt is for the idealized fetish ignorant idolaters have made out of a perfectly respectable method of inquiry.
#14865356
The way you go back and forth between reasoned debate and insulting drivel is going to give me whiplash.

If you dissagree then dissagree, there is no need for snide insinuations about my intelligence or general belligerence.
#14865365
I don't mean to offend you, but a lot of times you seem to conveniently ignore all the ground that we've already covered and revert back to smug condescension. Anyway, if you're interested in the skeptical critique of science the info and links in this thread are a good start.

Some search terms:
underdetermination
pessimistic meta-induction


Some thoughts on econometrics by a retired Rutgers professor -
Econometric Modeling as Junk Science - Rutgers University
Myths of Murder and Multiple Regression
#14865366
I don't mean to offend you, but a lot of times you seem to conveniently ignore all the ground that we've already covered and revert back to smug condescension.


I'm not condescending to you by disagreeing with a point and forwarding my own view. You seem to revert entirely to direct insults whenever I dissagree with you on anything in any thread. I've treated you no differently than I've treated anyone else on PoFo over the last few years. You are hardly the first PoFo Marxist I've ever argued with, I've been arguing with welsey in this same thread.

Never have any of them stooped to the level of annoying vitriolic attacks that you have and never have any of them accused me of making them do it by being smug.

Anyway, if you're interested in the skeptical critique of science the info and links in this thread is a good start.


The issue here isn't that I haven't read all the right things and I'll just change my mind and become enlightened if I just read the things you have read. We seem to have different outlooks and values that lead us to have different feelings and conclusions about all the various things people have said about science.

Handing me a reading list of things really isn't the point anymore in the argument. The point is that you can't seem to go three whole posts without going back to personal attacks.

I really think we are done discussing this. I'll be happy to continue it with others if they care to but I don't need to come back to this thread tomorrow to see you condescend to me about how low you think my intelligence is or how dishonest I am for not agreeing with the critiques that you agree with.
#14865404
My 2nd post on this site.
Neo-liberal economics is deeply flawed, but it has captured the discipline of economics.
I think the Modern Money Theory should be looked at as a possible better theory to use.
To learn more google MMT and Wray.
MMT seems to be better at sticking to assumptions that are true. Macro-economics can't use the scientific method to prove its theories because it can't do experiments where it controls the variables. It tries to use logic to prove its theories, but it fails to list all the assumptions in the proof. If any one of the assumptions is not obviously true then the proof is not valid. So, without the list who can say if their proof is valid?
MMT assumes that the dollar is not backed by gold and a central part of the theory. Other theories are often still stuck in gold-standard thinking. MMT says that all dollars are just IOUs. That they are I (= the Gov.) owe you $1 worth of value against your tax liabilities. MMT holds that without taxes, fiat currency is not backed by anything and loses its value quickly. So, nations that can't collect taxes for whatever reason will have high inflation unless i=the currency is backed by gold or dollars or some real thing.
MMT holds that US Gov. deficits are a way for most people in the nation to have saved some dollars during a year. [Have more dollars in the bank at the end than at the beginning.] Without a deficit 1 person can save only if another loses some of his savings.
MMT holds that it is impossible to pay off the US national debt in the normal meaning of the terms. That is with tax revenues which are the Gov's income. This is because taxing more than is spent to create a surplus has the effect of shifting dollars from the people to the insurance comp. and banks, etc. that currently hold the debt [the bonds and T-bills]. There is no mechanism to distribute to dollars from those comp. to the people again, so the people stop spending. This cuts the incomes of comp. and other people. This cut in incomes represents a drop in economic growth which means a recession has started. If the Gov. tries to continue its surplus the recession will get worse and worse. The people will vote in new politicians who will end the surplus.
MMT holds that just paying the bonds and T-bills as they come due [even with cash created out of air] will always cause less economic damage than defaulting on the debt will cause. That therefore, the US should and will never default on the debt. It also holds that the Fed. Res. Bk can avoid high interest rates so worrying about the effect of high interest rates is unfounded.
MMT holds that the only problem with large deficits is inflation [= a general price rise]. And the inflation will only happen when there is real full employment [= low unemployment and no-one discouraged from looking for work].

Etc.

I have seen several claims that economists who don't stay close to Neo-liberalism are denied tenure or otherwise punished and this keeps economics from progressing. This is a power bias at work.
#14865453
mikema63 wrote:
Spoiler: show
I'm supper busy right now so I don't really have time to give what you posted a good read so I'm only going to give a superficial reply, apologies.

The marginal theory of value does include presuppositions, we can debate rather or not those suppositions presume capitalist rationality is the best or whatever else but I'd make a different point as my main reply.

The point of mathematical modeling is to in a logical form take hypothesis and all their suppositions and extend them to conclusions that must be true if those suppositions are true. So the assumptions and necessary conclusions of Marginal theory of value or the labor theory of value can be tested against reality.

The marginal theory of value can be disproven in the real material world.

Insofar as the marginal theory of value and the labor theory of value cannot be tested because they cannot make testable conclusions they are philosophical problems and should be outside the discipline of economics as it is currently practiced in economic departments.

I'm not going to argue that the marginal theory of value in particular or any other hypothesis coming out of modern economic departments doesn't have presuppositions from withing the mindset of people who grew up and never really question the capitalist framework. That is after all how most people are and we shouldn't really expect professional economists to be particularly unlike normal humans.

I would posit that potentially we are looking at a thomas Kuhn type problem where we are describing things as they are and making hypothesis withing a capitalist ideological framework and are waiting for a fundamental paradigm shift in how we think about economics. We had such a revolutionary shift when Evolution was first fully posited and many of the problems that we tried and failed to explain within the framework of an ideological environment pointed towards a fundamentally different paradigm posited by religious doctrine. Indeed it helped destroy that false ideology.

The point I'm getting at is that economists certainly are trapped within the context of the society in which they exist, it's a human endevour after-all, but biologists are trapped by their context too and were able to eventually transcend that boundary because they were looking at the world in a way that would force them to reject false ideological presuppositions. Economics has started to apply mathematical tests to their own presuppositions, this can only be regarded as a more positive development in the search for truth.

The application of maths doesn't inspire much confidence in me in helping to create a radical paradigm shift.
In that I look at psychology and it has gone through many different schools of thought but it still remains philosophically confused, in part because of the difficulty in understanding the mind but also because many of them try to use methodological things to address philosophical problems.
This is why it can be the case that no amount of facts necessarily illuminates the problem because facts are all interpreted within the dominant paradigm. And if the philsophers of science show us anything, it's that the progress of science itself doesn't have any rational demarcation.
And of course people are trapped within the existing society, but the massive difficulty for all will be to understand it in order to conceive of something beyond it, which is why Marx stands above many theorists in that they end up in a series of antinomies and conclusions that presume one can change a feature of capitalism rather than what is essential to it.

Darwin's theory alone didn't destroy the position of the church, the bourgeoisie did.
Ideas don't appear to take dominance out of simply rational persuasion.
Because the struggle isn't simply in the realm of ideas but in reality and in reality the ruling class has certain ideas which prevail. Which doesn't make them entirely untrue, rather the point to remember is that knowledge is shaped by power and so it get contorted. Obviously the time is ripe to pick at it during crisis, when even those who are the true believers can falter in their belief.
The GFC and such having opened up some interest, also the increasing attack on the poor, people's dissatisfaction with the chaos of free trade.
But I don't think a struggle at such a point would lead to a alternative dominant paradigm, not apparent that it really budges marginalism at all, but it might gain favor with those who are disillusioned with the rhetoric that assert class interests as universal.
p. 6-7
denial of the independent interest of the working class could not survive the growth of trade unionism, working class political agitation, and the wider movement for social reform.

When workers are strong, their voices are harder to suppress and assert ideological dominance.
I do not put faith in school of economics to simply come around, this is where I have a knee jerk reaction of the faith of things needing only to go through a Kuhnian paradigm shift. Economics has restricted itself to a certain lens, leaving out other things as simply outside their purview. I don't expect anything especially radical within such a purview.

We can only understand things by abstracting them. The economy itself is an abstraction of the system of interactions between people. It is difficult if not impossible to understand the economy or society by trying to look at the whole thing at once in the same way it was impossible to discover the overall system of evolution without understanding many particular things. Science after all is inductive, we go from the specific to the general.

You can accuse an economist like amartya sen of failing to question capitalist ideology or capture the holism of society in his work on social choice and welfare but by understanding these specific things we can come to a better understanding of the economy as a whole, and thus of society as a whole. (I would point out that there is a very important amount of crossover work between sociology and economics as well so I don't see the criticism that economics ignores the implications of economy with society and values as entirely valid.)

It is not, in my mind, a bad thing in and of itself that economists seek to understand specific things.

I think in a previous interaction I stated how I do not criticize abstraction within itself, but the manner in which people abstract which leads to inadequate conceptions. My view being that the way in which some people abstract is superior to that of others, hence I value the thinking of Marx whilst detesting that of others.
I do not ask that people attempt to hold all of reality in their minds at once, rather there is a way of thinking where one seeks to identify essential relations so as to have abstractions that are representative of things as they exist rather than abstracted from their real world relations. I have a disdain for that which remains in the purely abstract, but not abstraction itself.

Indeed, the work of Amartya Sen seems to have been inavluable to many.
And evaluated on terms of their intentions they can be said to do well. People necessarily put certain limits on their focus and what they seek to explain.
But the point isn't so much of whether they do well at their job in regards to the limits they set for themselves but criticizing the limits of study itself irregardless of how well they do within those limits and the value at that level and frame of abstraction.
Because specialization has it's place, but it can makes for a lot of smart idiots whose work becomes isolated rather than integrated. Which relates to one aspect of my cynicism in regards some paradigm shift in economics.

https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/spirkin/works/dialectical-materialism/ch01-s04.html
To artificially isolate the specialised sciences from philosophy amounts to condemning scientists to finding for themselves world-view and methodological guidelines for their researches. Ignorance of philosophical culture is bound to have a negative effect on any general theoretical conclusions from a given set of scientific facts. One cannot achieve any real theoretical comprehension, particularly of the global problems of a specialised science, without a broad grasp of inter-disciplinary and philosophical views. The specialised scientists who ignore philosophical problems sometimes turn out to be in thrall to completely obsolete or makeshift philosophical ideas without even knowing it themselves. The desire to ignore philosophy is particularly characteristic of such a trend in bourgeois thought as positivism, whose advocates have claimed that science has no need of philosophy. Their ill-considered principle is that "science is in itself philosophy". They work on the assumption that scientific knowledge has developed widely enough to provide answers to all philosophical problems without resorting to any actual philosophical system. But the "cunning" of philosophy lies in the fact that any form of contempt for it, any rejection of philosophy is in itself a kind of philosophy. It is as impossible to get rid of philosophy as it is to rid oneself of all convictions. Philosophy is the regulative nucleus of the theoretically-minded individual. Philosophy takes its revenge on those who dissociate themselves from it. This can be seen from the example of a number of scientists who after maintaining the positions of crude empiricism and scorning philosophy have eventually fallen into mysticism. So, calls for freedom from any philosophical assumptions are a sign of intellectual narrowness. The positivists, while denying philosophy in words, actually preach the flawed philosophy of agnosticism and deny the possibility of knowing the laws of existence, particularly those of the development of society. This is also a philosophy, but one that is totally misguided and also socially harmful.
...
Sciences have become so ramified that no brain, however versatile can master all their branches, or even one chosen field. No one nowadays can say that he knows the whole of medicine or biology or mathematics, as some people could have said in the past. Like Goethe's Faust, scientists realise that they cannot know everything about everything. So they are trying to know as much as possible about as little as possible and becoming like people digging deeper and deeper into a well and seeing less and less of what is going on around them, or like a chorus of the deaf, in which each member sings his own tune without hearing anyone else. Such narrow specialisation may lead, and has in some cases already led, to professional narrow-mindedness. Here we have a paradox. This process is both harmful and historically necessary and justified. Without narrow specialisation we cannot make progress and at the same time such specialisation must be constantly filled out by a broad inter-disciplinary approach, by the integrative power of philosophical reason. Otherwise a situation may arise when the common front of developing science will move ahead more and more rapidly and humanity's total knowledge will increase while the individual, the scientist, for example, will lag farther and farther behind the general flood of information and become more and more limited as the years go by. Aristotle knew nearly everything that was known to his epoch and constituted the substance of ancient science, but today by the time he leaves school the pupil is expected to know far more than Aristotle. And it would be a lifetime's work even for a gifted person with a phenomenal memory to learn the fundamentals of all the sciences.

What is more, narrow specialisation, deprived of any breadth of vision, inevitably leads to a creeping empiricism, to the endless description of particulars.

We need people whose abstract labor is more holistic also in conjunction with specialization. Darwin was a great thinker who in fact thought dialectically to conceive of evolutionary theory, rather than mere appearance, he was able to comprehend change in organisms. We no longer categorized things by Linnaeus taxonomy which represented a necessary step but an inferior stage of thought.
But today I think there are great thinkers, but there are certainly concerns for the great synthesizers of thought, they certainly exist but what their influence is I don't know.
I remember people on here and elsewhere lamented the philosopher scientists of the past, where some poster here summarized modern day scientists as being like factory line workers.
They produce their little pieces of understanding, but they they perhaps don't understand much further than what they need to know for their job and so can be incredibly smart but in a restricted way. But such is the division of labor, particularly intellectual.
It's not that particulars or the empirical isn't important, but it's the emphasis on such that leads to stupidity and degradation of understanding.

And yeah, there's crossover work, but that they remain distinct even as interdisciplinary is worriesome that they still retain distinct ontological methodologies and aren't really integrated. But sociology itself is burdened by the assumptions that arise out of economics.
p. 8...
Spoiler: show
The investigation of concrete economic and social problems introduced social and historical considerations. Social economics qualified the optimistic conclusions of pure theory, analysing the extent to which inequalities of economic power, the development of monopoly, the imperfect exercise of rationality and the intervention of the state distort the harmonious equilibrium defined by pure theory and introduce economic conflict into the model of perfect competition.
...
Weber offered an acute, and extremely influential diagnosis of the contradictions of modernity, the only such diagnosis which stands comparison with that of Marx in recognising that the ‘substantive irrationality’ of modern society is not simply a pathological deformation of a rational normality, but is inherent in the process of ‘rationalisation’. Weber recognised that the contradiction between the ‘formal rationality’ of modern society and its ‘substantive irrationality’ is not simply a matter of an arbitrary subjective evaluation, but is an objective feature of modern society, expressed in the conflict between systems of values, and within the individual personality, which has objective historical consequences. But unlike Marx, Weber could not get to the roots of this contradiction in the alienated forms of social labour because he saw such forms of labour as rational. Thus he remained trapped within a dualistic theory of capitalist society in which the individual subject confronts an objective social world which is indifferent to meaning and impervious to action, whose objectivity is defined functionally, in relation to ends which have become detached from their individual foundations and embedded in the social structure.

Weber’s diagnosis of the contradictions of modernity is a mystification of the fundamental contradictions of the capitalist mode of production, but it remains a very powerful diagnosis because it is a very acute expression of the forms in which those contradictions appear to experience. Weber’s misanthropic and pessimistic fatalism reflected the circumstances of time and place, and of the cultural and intellectual milieu in which he wrote, so that his own solution was hardly supportive of the liberal project. Nevertheless he defined the dilemmas confronting liberalism in the wake of the marginalist revolution in economics, dilemmas which any rigorous liberal sociology would have to resolve.

The central problem was a simple one: how to define sociology as a discipline which is both critical of marginalist economics, in establishing the socio-historical limits of economic rationality, while at the same time recognising the limits to sociology embodied in the liberal principles of individual rationality expressed in the economic theories of marginalism. This theoretical problem expressed the fundamental dilemma of modern liberalism: is it possible to formulate a critique of the inhumanity of modern capitalism on the basis of precisely those liberal principles of which modern capitalism is the expression and the result? It is because Weber was acutely aware that there were no simple solutions to this simple problem that he could define the dilemmas confronting sociology so acutely
...
The distinction between economy and society is not an empirical distinction, but a conceptual one, resting on the conceptual distinction between the essential rationality of capitalism and its social reality, a distinction that in turn rests on the definition of economic relations as essentially asocial, concerning not relations between people, but relations of subjective evaluation of things by abstract individuals, mediated by the technical relations of production and the formal relations of exchange. The definition of the nature and significance not only of modern economics, but also of modern sociology, depends on the legitimacy of the economists’ abstraction of social actors from their social and historical context, an abstraction that is based on the definition of economics not as the science of a particular set of social relations, but of a particular orientation of action, ‘the science which studies the processes of rational acquisition of scarce means to the actor’s ends by production and economic exchange, and of their rational allocation as between alternative uses’ (Parsons, 1949, p. 266).

Sociology is not necessarily content to occupy the space allocated to it by marginalist economics. However, as we have seen in the case of Weber’s sociology, the sociological critique of the narrow economic rationalism of marginalist economics cuts the ground from under its own feet. This presents any critical sociology with an acute dilemma, which appears in the irreconcilability of the voluntarism of the theory of action, that defines the autonomy of sociology, with the implicit naturalism of the theory of social structure on which it ultimately rests.

Although sociology can define its object and formulate its methodology within the framework of the theory of action, the theory of action cannot provide the ultimate foundation of sociological explanation. The theory of action abstracts the individual from the social relations within which alone she exists as a social individual. Thus a formal sociology, like that of Simmel, which seeks to explain social relations as the product of the subjective orientation of action, can never achieve such an explanation, since any such explanation presupposes a substantive context for social action which is defined by the very social relations that the reference to action purports to explain. On the other hand, the theory equally abstracts these social relations from the action of individuals, through which alone they are reproduced and transformed. The result is that a ‘structural’ sociology ends up referring the explanation of the social relations of capitalist production to the functional requirements of their own reproduction, a circularity which is only broken by the marginalist ‘naturalisation’ of capitalist social relations, as the rational expression of the natural and technological conditions of social existence.

This dilemma pervaded Weber’s sociology, but it was not of Weber’s making: it is the constitutive and irresoluble liberal dilemma on which modern sociology is based. Weber evaded rather than resolved it by limiting the scope of sociology to the interpretative understanding of concrete social situations, and representing the dilemma as the inescapable fate of humanity.
...
The liberal dilemma lies in the contradiction between the voluntaristic theory of action, which is the necessary basis of any liberal democratic theory that believes that a legitimate social order is compatible with the freedom of the individual property owner, and the naturalistic theory of social structure which defines the objective constraints which characterise such action as social. This dilemma defines the terms within which modern sociology has developed. However, the two poles of the contrast are not independent of one another. Rather they are constituted as complementary, but mutually exclusive, perspectives on society by the ideological abstraction of the individual, on the one hand, and nature, on the other, from the historically developed social relations of capitalist production which alone mediate the relation between the individual and nature and within which alone nature and the individual exist socially. Thus modern sociology is condemned to exist within a world defined by a series of abstract dualisms which reflect the inadequacy of its foundations but which nevertheless structure sociological debate: structure–action; object–subject; positivism– humanism; holism–individualism; society–individual; explanation–understanding; order–conflict; authority–consent. Through all the twists and turns of sophisticated theoretical debate the same themes constantly recur.

Simply put, I don't believe sociology is going to do much to really challenge economics limitations and I think it'll remain a duality. To which their particular exisence was a boon to our understanding, particulars and such limits were crucial to improving human understanding. But, it be stuck within it is to remain stupid and this is where people often flip flop between dualities, things they are unable to resolve in part because they have already presumed their separation.

So I'll reiterate though as I take it from your statement you think I have an issue within itself to study things so specifically, which I believe isn't the issue itself, but to confine one's self to such limits is problematic.
This is where philosophy is invaluable to helping people to synthesize things and see their connections, or it can get quite scary the way people think in their tunnel vision.

I don't want to get too caught up in arguments about any specific modern theory in economics. My point would be that wherever there is a real world implication to a theory then it should be tested. Where it isn't testable because of limitations in our ability to test it we should be cautious in accepting it. Where it cannot be tested because it is untestable we should reject it as unknowable or at least the realm of philosophy.

I think I'd make a point here and attempt to draw a line in the argument between philosophy of the economy and economics as it's currently practiced. It would simplify the argument to draw a hard line between the part of economics that is untestable by mathematical means or by looking out at specific cases in the economy today and philosophical worries like whether or not the marginal theory or labor theory is true in a philosophical sense. That isn't to say it isn't an important question. There is a limit to what we can know with what knowledge and tools we have at hand and we will always be more restrained when using empirical methods.

I hope you don't treat too strong a divide between empiricism and rationalism.
Regardless, there are limits to testing of things, there is some empirical proof for some of Marx's ideas about capitalism in regards to falling rate of profit and so on, but it's certainly not an idea that can be conclusively proven/falsified. In part because one can not have such a controlled experiment of the economy.
I would imagine the point about the barter illusion would be of empirical significance in that it shows that the models foundations are based on an assumption that directly conflicts what is observable about the reality of our exchanges of commodities. That sounds pretty concerning if it's true if this is what lays at the base of all the modeling.
It's not a philosophical inquiry as much it's that one presumably is required to inquire in the actual reality we're meant to be investigating economically supposedly and then derive things from that existing reality. This is what I mean about the manner of abstracting, the model is based on a fantasy distant from reality. Not that it's a model in itself but it's a model based on a fantasy. Which is distinct from a model simply abstracting many features away, but that essential features are abstracted and obscure things.


I actually wouldn't say it's neutral. Scientific study in general isn't and cannot be neutral because it is done by human beings and we exist in a particular context with particular biases. The institutions of science shape it, it has it's own institutions and institutional culture, etc. Those institutions are deliberately shaped in many ways to try and fight against those human biases but they exist. It's only through a shared commitment to the values that make science work that are drilled into anyone taking science courses that push those values and vigilance and criticism from outside and in of these institutions are necessary to make them continue to function.

My point on this is that science, academics, and economics in particular are all shaped by stuff and can never be truly neutral. We just have to hold it to a particular set of values and standards.

On that vein I would argue that people like you or sivad who criticize the discipline help the discipline in the long run. It forces them to defend themselves from stinging criticisms that they may not be upholding those values they profess and forces them to evaluate their work in that context.

But at this point we are running far deeper into the philosophy of science that I'm super comfortable with since I'm not super well read on the topic.

Well the idea of neutrality is applicable to the field of marginalism itself which is prided on the basis of its abstract universality by ignoring much of the real world. The idea was that marginalism freed the political economy from concerns of politics (it was simply facts, no values, that was in the realm of sociology) and was scientific. But often such an acclaim to objectivity merely denies the influence of subjectivity and the values it's based on. Part of my disdain for this sentiment has arisen in part from forum members elsewhere where their assertion of objectivity almost always is a veil for their inability to recognize their own prejudices, biases and so on, naive and arrogant they are. Not that we all aren't unaware of much of ourselves, but they are severely so.

Well it's good to press ones self into the discomfort, thats how get challenged :D
Though I understand, things can get a bit stretched out too far too quickly.


By this argument biology would be a sterile endeavor because it was entirely descriptive and was founded in perfect creation. The power of the institutions of science and academia is it's ability to challenge it's own presuppositions and founding ideology. We advance, and it's messy and difficult and biased and human but this assertion that it's foundation is flawed and we can't progress is not only wrong but would seem to fly in the face of the actual historical development of science.

As I think I mentioned earlier with the barter stuff, I'm not expecting a perfect model of reality, its fruitful to abstract much that is simply irrelevant to identifying the essence of things.
But it seems to me that as with the bartering example, that they ignore important parts of the existing economy in their models, making them superfluous instead of historically specific and significant to capitalism.
The thing is that I don't think marginalism is being swept away by it's inadequacy and that's because in spite of anyones claim of it simply being a technical science devoid of political values, it is politically charged and it would be stupid of a ruling class to somehow have it swept away.
I mean, Keynes' work was threatening to marginalism but soon as got away from such economic crisis, it simple enough to neutralize his work as things moved on. Which relates to my sense that the school doesn't progress from it's own self criticism within itself, but the criticism and changes originate out of the conflicts in the world. Marginalism itself emerged from certain real world conditions and similarly, changes to such fields don't occur in isolation from society and it's tensions.
And such tendencies will always arise because it's not simply a pursuit of truth, but is heavily characterized by certain biases of a political nature. People have different interests on what they want to prove and the way in which they conceive it. And my point about no amount of time isn't that it can change in time as much as it's not time itself which will change it. Because I don't believe in time necessarily progressing things but people and their circumstances. And the challenging of marginalism may be done away with but it might have some creative end in which it changes in the way that marginalism was in its implications, a way to move away from the explicit political tensions made in study of the political economy.

It's not that these criticisms don't apply, they may in fact exist for forever in some form or another. I would only posit that a self reflective study using the foundations of scientific institutions so long as the values and integrity of those institutions are defended can transcend their ideological foundations. We cannot treat a particular human endeavor as not being able to grow past it's ideological roots and into a new one and then claim that the entirety of society can do so.

It can't grow past ideology within itself, as it's part of society and changes in academia often reflect a change in the times themselves. And when it comes to something as politically sensitive as economics and it's implications, before any shift occurs it will have to come through struggle and strengthening of those whose political interests are counter to marginalism.
Quite often I see that whilst there can be specific debates and so on, they can often merely be a repetition of the past which hasn't been learn from and overcome. We repeat the past in some form because the problems do not go away necessarily until we solve them and at times, progress is fettered because of alternative interests.
I think my view is that your characterization sounds as if the institutions themselves presumed to not be too severely compromised will in their pursuit of truth necessarily win out. Maybe it could with certain changes, but what those changes much be I don't think are found within the institutions themselves but from pressures outside of them. In that change doesn't necessarily come from with in, and the schools of thought have themselves been reflective of the political issues of their time.
Keynes arose as a necessary limit to the irrationality of chaos to legitimize reforms that saved war hardened people from fucking up their governments.
#14865489
The application of maths doesn't inspire much confidence in me in helping to create a radical paradigm shift.


Math is a form of logic that generates necessary conclusions from premises. It is the single most powerful tool humanity has ever invented and if it can't help lead to paradigm shifts then I'd despair that anything actually could do so.

It can be used and abused by humans of course but it is still a tool that anyone with some grounding in math can analyze.

Fundamentally there may be a difference in attitude towards math vs. verbal arguments between us. You may not know this but years ago when I joined pofo right when I finished high school I was a right wing libertarian (in part just because of upbringing). I was taken in by austrian economics which is a group that reject mathematical models entirely in favor of verbal arguments about how the economy works.

Ultimately it amounts to little more than verbal slight of hand to justify some of the most ridiculous policy positions imaginable, it's all utter unverifiable nonsense that rejects entirely any attempt to critically analyze it with mathematical tools. I was taken in for a decent amount of time because I didn't really understand math and it led me to conclusions that not only supported my biases but took them to the most ridiculous possible totalizing libertarian conclusions.

Having had the experience of being totally bamboozled by this sort of verbal argument that eschews mathematical analysis I went into my degree program and was basically brought up in the institutional culture of the sciences. I learned to truly appreciate math not only as a tool but as a beautiful thing in it's own right, with massive power to correct our deepest biases.

So fundamentally I have a deep respect for mathematics and a hypercaution towards verbal arguments because of my life experiences. Which is a gap I'm not sure I can bridge with you who seem to distrust the math and prefer entirely verbal arguments.

In that I look at psychology and it has gone through many different schools of thought but it still remains philosophically confused, in part because of the difficulty in understanding the mind but also because many of them try to use methodological things to address philosophical problems.


I know very little about philosophy in psychology so I can't really comment, but it seems to me that psychology as a field has gotten better at addressing issues than ever before. The way I see it is that it's a necessary if a bit blind endeavor, addressing mental issues is important but we simply don't have any strong foundations to work from when it started and so it was just bumbling in the dark. We couldn't not try to address these important issues but we had no idea where to start so people seem to have just sort of made things up.

We understand things a bit better now and have stronger foundations to address mental issues from now.

This is why it can be the case that no amount of facts necessarily illuminates the problem because facts are all interpreted within the dominant paradigm.


And yet it is also the accumulation of facts that stretch the dominant paradigm in the sciences that ultimately cause people to go to a new paradigm. Facts are facts, and when necessary conclusions begin to strain the foundations of the dominant paradigm it will break apart.

Darwin's theory alone didn't destroy the position of the church, the bourgeoisie did.
Because the struggle isn't simply in the realm of ideas but in reality and in reality the ruling class has certain ideas which prevail. Which doesn't make them entirely untrue, rather the point to remember is that knowledge is shaped by power and so it get contorted. Obviously the time is ripe to pick at it during crisis, when even those who are the true believers can falter in their belief.
The GFC and such having opened up some interest, also the increasing attack on the poor, people's dissatisfaction with the chaos of free trade.
But I don't think a struggle at such a point would lead to a alternative dominant paradigm, not apparent that it really budges marginalism at all, but it might gain favor with those who are disillusioned with the rhetoric that assert class interests as universal.


I'd argue that this is itself a rather simplistic reduction of society to just class issues and scientific ideas to just developments in class conflict. Darwins revolutionary idea wasn't born out of class conflict, it was born out of our growing understanding of the natural world.

I don't think any one shift in understanding can be linked to any one thing or indeed the same things in every case. Eienstein didn't fundamentally overturn newton because of any particular ideological shifts in society for example. Though the Nazi's amusingly thought they could ignore facts on the grounds of being jewish.

You seem to suffer from pessimism as much as anything else on this point. You just don't think people who do what they love with an honest commitment to find the truth are ever capable of coming to "correct" conclusions. You seem particularly hung up on marginalism for ideological reasons and I'm concerned that you are staring down one concept you don't like as your barometer for whether or not economics is capable of coming to better conlcusions without considering the field as a whole and embracing the possibility that you might not be entirely correct yourself. You are coming from a particular ideological view as much as anyone else and could be as blind to the flaws in the labor theory of value or whatever it is that you believe in as they might be blind to the flaws of the marginal theory of value.

Personally I don't have strong opinions on the particular topic since I don't know enough to form a strong opinion and don't see it as being the most pressing issue for me personally.

I do however embrace that I could be wrong about a great many things that I hold personally near and dear to my heart, though I shudder to think of being wrong about these deeply held personal beliefs that form the foundation of my belief structures, I have been deeply wrong before after all (i.e. my ancap period, good god what was I thinking?)


When workers are strong, their voices are harder to suppress and assert ideological dominance.
I do not put faith in school of economics to simply come around, this is where I have a knee jerk reaction of the faith of things needing only to go through a Kuhnian paradigm shift. Economics has restricted itself to a certain lens, leaving out other things as simply outside their purview. I don't expect anything especially radical within such a purview.


I strongly believe in the institutions power. Perhaps I am overly optimistic, perhaps I am naive, but I really do think you are overly pessimistic that nothing can come from the economics departments because they haven't already adopted your particular ideas about how the economy functions.

My view being that the way in which some people abstract is superior to that of others, hence I value the thinking of Marx whilst detesting that of others.


How do you judge this? It would seem to me that the abstractions you find superior would be simply those that appeal to your values, preconceived beliefs, and various cognitive biases.

I can only say that I am radically suspicious of such an approach without fundamental tools like mathematics. I distrust myself far to much to deem myself an arbiter of whose abstractions are better than others.

I do not ask that people attempt to hold all of reality in their minds at once, rather there is a way of thinking where one seeks to identify essential relations so as to have abstractions that are representative of things as they exist rather than abstracted from their real world relations. I have a disdain for that which remains in the purely abstract, but not abstraction itself.


If you wish to understand what relations are actually important to abstract them why on earth would you not start from what the current relations in the world today are? :?:

I would add that mathematical models take real world information and make real world conclusions, the are not as you make out purely abstract.

But the point isn't so much of whether they do well at their job in regards to the limits they set for themselves but criticizing the limits of study itself irregardless of how well they do within those limits and the value at that level and frame of abstraction.
Because specialization has it's place, but it can makes for a lot of smart idiots whose work becomes isolated rather than integrated. Which relates to one aspect of my cynicism in regards some paradigm shift in economics.


I simply fail to see the issue you are claiming here. Economics seems to be a rather expansive field doing all sorts of wide ranging things. It studies everything from individual behaviors and small scale microeconomics to the study of institutions large and small, to the entire economy of all of society and how this or that effects it. What makes you say it is so narrowly focused?

We need people whose abstract labor is more holistic also in conjunction with specialization. Darwin was a great thinker who in fact thought dialectically to conceive of evolutionary theory, rather than mere appearance, he was able to comprehend change in organisms.


This seems a hefty claim indeed. :eh:

You seem to be asserting that Darwin was only able to discover evolution because he had somehow used some aspect of your ideology to do so. You could see how this would make me rather suspicious of the claim. It has an air of "i'm totally right about how the world works and so anyone else who was right must have secretly shared the way I think about stuff ideologically".


Simply put, I don't believe sociology is going to do much to really challenge economics limitations and I think it'll remain a duality.


My point isn't that sociology complete economics. Philosophy of economics matters too, in some way shape or form every field will touch on every other and impact each other. The divisions between fields are in part arbitrary after all, a discovery in one field can challenge the foundations of another. Every field of science and study are different levels of focus on the same reality after all, not so perfectly divided as all that. There will always be criticism of each and that matters.

This type of argument matters.

I'm not claiming that economics itself as an individual field with not influence from outside is necessarily able to transcend itself. the entire institution of science and academics is required, all of society is required. Anything isolated in a vacuum will be sterile.

To which their particular exisence was a boon to our understanding, particulars and such limits were crucial to improving human understanding. But, it be stuck within it is to remain stupid and this is where people often flip flop between dualities, things they are unable to resolve in part because they have already presumed their separation.

So I'll reiterate though as I take it from your statement you think I have an issue within itself to study things so specifically, which I believe isn't the issue itself, but to confine one's self to such limits is problematic.
This is where philosophy is invaluable to helping people to synthesize things and see their connections, or it can get quite scary the way people think in their tunnel vision.


I would never claim that philosophy doesn't have a role here or that you shouldn't make your arguments. I do think you are underestimating people within this fields ability to think more deeply about things. Many people don't of course but that's true of everyone. It seems a little unfair to imagine every scientist of being reduce to a thoughtless cog.

I hope you don't treat too strong a divide between empiricism and rationalism.


It's all filtered through human experience, I've heard good things about Kant's view on the topic but I couldn't really tell you that I had any deeply held beliefs about the superiority of one or the other. They seem to bleed into each other anyway, I don't know that you could really separate them.

Regardless, there are limits to testing of things, there is some empirical proof for some of Marx's ideas about capitalism in regards to falling rate of profit and so on, but it's certainly not an idea that can be conclusively proven/falsified. In part because one can not have such a controlled experiment of the economy.


Funnily the last sentence here is something the Austrians would say all the time. That is where the models come in, with a model you can take your hypothesis and take real world data and create necessary conclusions about the future if your hypothesis is true. It's hard to do science in the way physicists or chemists do on the whole of humanity and society but I'd point to ecology which studies many subjects that can be hard to do controlled experiments on but can produce very good work. This isn't in and of itself a fatal flaw.

If something can't be studied in the real world it can only be because two conflicting theories would produce the same results in that area. In which case if those distinctions matter you can fight over it but I'm more concerned with real world effects than logical debates about marginalism and the labor theory of value.

If either theory of value gave the same results all else being equal then I probably wont care all that much about which one is right. If those theories have other necessary conclusions that are good or bad then we have something to indirectly test those theories with.

I would imagine the point about the barter illusion would be of empirical significance in that it shows that the models foundations are based on an assumption that directly conflicts what is observable about the reality of our exchanges of commodities. That sounds pretty concerning if it's true if this is what lays at the base of all the modeling.


I don't know all that much about the barter illusion, but models are math and math can be right or wrong based on the presuppositions used. Any particular example of a bad model doesn't make modeling fundamentally flawed.

If all economics models have some fundamental flaw I'm not aware of it is because they are poorly constructed, not because math can't describe reality.

It's not a philosophical inquiry as much it's that one presumably is required to inquire in the actual reality we're meant to be investigating economically supposedly and then derive things from that existing reality. This is what I mean about the manner of abstracting, the model is based on a fantasy distant from reality. Not that it's a model in itself but it's a model based on a fantasy. Which is distinct from a model simply abstracting many features away, but that essential features are abstracted and obscure things.


A model that gives out false answers because it is grounded in untrue things about reality is a bad model, which can be ultimately rejected as flawed because it will give bad conclusions which do not map onto reality. It will be falsified.

Well the idea of neutrality is applicable to the field of marginalism itself which is prided on the basis of its abstract universality by ignoring much of the real world. The idea was that marginalism freed the political economy from concerns of politics (it was simply facts, no values, that was in the realm of sociology) and was scientific. But often such an acclaim to objectivity merely denies the influence of subjectivity and the values it's based on. Part of my disdain for this sentiment has arisen in part from forum members elsewhere where their assertion of objectivity almost always is a veil for their inability to recognize their own prejudices, biases and so on, naive and arrogant they are. Not that we all aren't unaware of much of ourselves, but they are severely so.


We all struggle in an absurd universe and die, looking for meaning that isn't there the whole time. :)

I really don't know what more to say to this part except that it's a problem that's true of everyone and everything past, present, and future. Not much I can really do to address the concern that humans are human and that makes everything we do flawed. :hmm:

As I think I mentioned earlier with the barter stuff, I'm not expecting a perfect model of reality, its fruitful to abstract much that is simply irrelevant to identifying the essence of things.
But it seems to me that as with the bartering example, that they ignore important parts of the existing economy in their models, making them superfluous instead of historically specific and significant to capitalism.


People fall in love with their own beliefs. I wouldn't really expect them to reject flawed beliefs overnight. This is true in many fields, people fought over whether or not atoms existed in physics for far longer than the evidence in it's favor would have you expect. It's just how people are. It happens in every academic field, we just have to have people keep pointing it out and have the evidence keep piling up and struggling till the truth wins out.

The thing is that I don't think marginalism is being swept away by it's inadequacy and that's because in spite of anyones claim of it simply being a technical science devoid of political values, it is politically charged and it would be stupid of a ruling class to somehow have it swept away.
I mean, Keynes' work was threatening to marginalism but soon as got away from such economic crisis, it simple enough to neutralize his work as things moved on. Which relates to my sense that the school doesn't progress from it's own self criticism within itself, but the criticism and changes originate out of the conflicts in the world. Marginalism itself emerged from certain real world conditions and similarly, changes to such fields don't occur in isolation from society and it's tensions.
And such tendencies will always arise because it's not simply a pursuit of truth, but is heavily characterized by certain biases of a political nature. People have different interests on what they want to prove and the way in which they conceive it. And my point about no amount of time isn't that it can change in time as much as it's not time itself which will change it. Because I don't believe in time necessarily progressing things but people and their circumstances. And the challenging of marginalism may be done away with but it might have some creative end in which it changes in the way that marginalism was in its implications, a way to move away from the explicit political tensions made in study of the political economy.


Nothing happens in a vacuum of course.

I would say that you are making too strong a statement in the other direction though. You seem to be making the statement that what economists think is simply a secondary consequence of everything else when I don't see it as so clear as that. Economic theory can drive changes in society and society can drive changes in economic theory but they aren't so seperate that one causes the other in one direction only.

I think my view is that your characterization sounds as if the institutions themselves presumed to not be too severely compromised will in their pursuit of truth necessarily win out. Maybe it could with certain changes, but what those changes much be I don't think are found within the institutions themselves but from pressures outside of them. In that change doesn't necessarily come from with in, and the schools of thought have themselves been reflective of the political issues of their time.


I have my own personal reasons that I respect these institutions.

I would point out that most economists don't really make tons of money or gain fame. It's the same for them as most other academic disciplines, they do it because they love it, because they have a drive for truth and have inherited those values and those values are reinforced by those institutions.

Maybe those institutions need changing maybe they dont, but I have a fundamental attitude that if people struggle for what they value they can get there eventually. Otherwise why even bother trying if you don't believe it?
#14865663
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Rugoz wrote: Back then they just theorized a little because they didn't have the statistical tools to do more.
Last time I checked they didn't even have a computer back in the 19th century.


The fact that statistical tools work in certain cases can't necessarily be extended as a universal principle. For instance, statistics work very well in predicting the aggregate motion of gases. Why is this the case?

1) The physical laws that govern their behavior are understood.
2) The units we use to measure motion, temperature, pressure, etc. are well-defined and do not change arbitrarily over time.
3) Molecules are essentially identical.

None of these statements is true with respect to economics.

4) Economics is recursive. Our "understanding" of economic events affects our economic behaviors. Thus, economic theory constantly interacts with the phenomena it supposedly models.

5) Economics is not empirical. We can assign numbers to things like inflation, unemployment, prices, etc., but none of these things exist independent of human society. They are not part of the phenomenal world in the same way that pressure and temperature are. A rock is still a rock even if humanity disappeared tomorrow, and its essential characteristics of mass, density, etc. exist independently. The same is not true of money or inflation.

6) Economics is unique & historically specific. The industrial revolution happened and cannot be repeated. You can't do experiments on the industrial revolution, nor isolate various factors. You can't test your theories by way of experiments in the real world.

The point is, it's not just a lack of knowledge or proper tools. Economics is a lot closer to literary criticism than physics - it studies a creation of the human mind, not some pre-existing timeless physical reality. This doesn't mean it's worthless, but it does mean that its prescriptions cannot by relied upon. (Truman's two-handed economists come to mind.)
#14865765
mikema63 wrote:I would point out that most economists don't really make tons of money or gain fame. It's the same for them as most other academic disciplines, they do it because they love it, because they have a drive for truth and have inherited those values and those values are reinforced by those institutions.

There are indications that bad practice – particularly at the less serious end of the scale – is rife. In 2009, Daniele Fanelli of the University of Edinburgh carried out a meta-analysis that pooled the results of 21 surveys of researchers who were asked whether they or their colleagues had fabricated or falsified research.

Publishing his results in the journal PLoS One, he found that an average of 1.97% of scientists admitted to having "fabricated, falsified or modified data or results at least once – a serious form of misconduct by any standard – and up to 33.7% admitted other questionable research practices. In surveys asking about the behaviour of colleagues, admission rates were 14.12% for falsification, and up to 72% for other questionable research practices."

[...]

According to a report in the journal Nature, published retractions in scientific journals have increased around 1,200% over the past decade, even though the number of published papers had gone up by only 44%. Around half of these retractions are suspected cases of misconduct.

Wager says these numbers make it difficult for a large research-intensive university, which might employ thousands of researchers, to maintain the line that misconduct is vanishingly rare.

[...]

The pressure to commit misconduct is complex. Arturo Casadevall of the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York and editor in chief of the journal mBio, places a large part of the blame on the economics of science. "What is happening in recent years is that the rewards have become too high, for example, for publishing in certain journals. Just like we see the problem in sports that, if you compete and you get a reward, it translates into everything from money and endorsements and things like that. People begin to take risks because the rewards are disproportionate."

As a PhD student in the 1980s, Casadevall says he published research in a few different journals depending on what his research was about. "Within 10 years, all you heard was, 'Where is the paper going to be published?' not 'What's in it?'. Scientists have got into this idea that where you publish determines the value of the work and that's crazy. What's important is what's in the paper."
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/sep/13/scientific-research-fraud-bad-practice
#14865807
"Science is living through an unprecedented crisis of reproducibility, with an associated loss of efficiency, waste of resources, and an impressive list of misdiagnoses in fields from forensics to economics, medicine to psychology, and nutrition to chemistry.

Science’s internal quality control mechanisms have been seriously impaired by dysfunctional system of incentives, including the use of perverse metrics, and the imperative to publish or perish, creating a dystopian nexus of Gordian complexity. The specialization of science, its subjugation to market ideology, and the loss of its pristine social fabric have contributed to this process. As a result, trust in science and expertise has suffered. Is such scepticism unjustified?

Science cannot solve these problems alone because it has contributed to create them in the first place. Scientists should not assume that science is an ethically privileged system. They should avoid supporting controversial policy agendas or corporate interests, or denouncing legitimate perspectives as “anti-science”. Scientists’ passion and advocacy is best deployed when they speak from within the confines of their own craft and specialised knowledge, showing humility and awareness of their own ignorance, as well as expertise.

But we have to acknowledge that a complete solution is not possible unless we address the core beliefs from which our present predicament has emerged.In the seventeenth century, at the dawn of the scientific age, Francis Bacon suggested the need to understand which idols need to be abandoned before we can achieve progress. Bacon’s battle against scholasticism would today take the form of a collective debate about the existing idealised vision of science and scientists." - Andrea Saltelli & Silvio Funtowicz


Post-normal science -
"the stage where we are today, where all the comfortable assumptions about science, its production and its use, are in question"

"facts [are] uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent"
Image

"In many ways it is this grand conception of the role of social science that is being challenged in the chapters that follow. One of my central concerns is the limits on the capabilities of research: what is it able to produce, and what is the relationship between this and the demands of policy making and practice? I argue that the evidenced-based practice model greatly exaggerates the current capacities of research, and involves naive assumptions about the nature of policy making and practice." - Martyn Hammersley, The Myth of Research-Based Policy and Practice

What is wrong with evidence based policy, and how can it be improved?
A crisis in science

Though apparently unrelated, controversy is not helped by science own crisis of reproducibility, integrity and legitimacy. We do not want to offer here a full picture of this crisis, for which that reader is referred to a recent book specifically devoted to this topic (Benessia et al., 2016; the authors of the present paper also contributed to this work). The volume makes the case that the crisis has ethical, epistemological, methodological and even metaphysical dimensions, and that its root causes can be read from history and philosophy of science scholarship to present-day historical critique of commodified science. It is also argued in the book that the crisis of science qua science impacts science as used for policy, and that is shown acutely through frictions affecting:

•the paradigm of evidence-based policy;

•the use of science to produce implausibly precise numbers and reassuring techno-scientific imaginaries;

•the use of science to ‘compel’ decision by the sheer strength of ‘facts’.

As per the crisis of science proper – which affect both reproducibility, the peer review system, the use of metrics, the system of incentive, the reader can find a recent summary in the work of Begley and Ioannidis (2015), which summarized a good deal of recent literature including from the same Begley (2013), (e.g. 2013; with Lee, 2012) and Ioannidis (e.g. 2005; 2014). For those authors the ingredients of the crisis are:

•The generation of new data/publications at an unprecedented rate;

•The compelling evidence that the majority of these discoveries will not stand the test of time;

•A failure to adhere to good scientific practice and the desperation to publish or perish and most evident proximate causes;

•The fact that the problem is multifaceted, and involving a large pool of different stakeholders, and that no single party is solely responsible, and no single solution will suffice.

A debate is also unfolding about recent and less recent cases of failure of the science to inform policies, suffice here mention the case of the cholesterol versus sugar saga, where important institutions stood behind misinformed policies for decades in spite of mounting contrary evidence(Teicholz, 2015; see Leslie, 2016, for a summary)

Before all that voices are raised to question whether “science has taken a turn towards darkness” (Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of The Lancet, 2015), or that “Science is turning back to the dark ages” (Phillips, 2016) or what sense of responsibility one might expect from scientists themselves (Macilwain, 2016).
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 8717300472

#14866103
This thread is such a dump.

@quetzalcoatl

Economic theory makes predictions about reality, this has been the case in the 19th century and it's the case today.
A necessary but not sufficient condition for an economic theory to be correct, is that it matches reality (aka the data).
#14866446
Rugoz wrote:This thread is such a dump.


Because there's no way to even begin to discuss the issue until people have a basic sense of what's going on in those ivory towers. If it wasn't a dump it would just be a sham, at least with a dump there's a heap to pick over.

A necessary but not sufficient condition for an economic theory to be correct, is that it matches reality (aka the data)


Then economics is a spectacular failure.
#14866656
@Sivad

So you think because you found a few articles on the internet that confirm the prejudices dumb people have about science you know what's going on in the ivory tower?

Economics is such a vast field, it's pointless to make general judgements about it. Romer criticized the "mathiness" in economic growth theory,
(kind of ironic coming from Romer), something I would agree with, but that is only a subset of economic research. And frankly it doesn't hurt,
as long as nobody takes it too seriously, which I think nobody does :lol:.

Know the limits of theory and know your statistics. The latter cannot be emphasized enough. People should be educated better in statistics.
#14868348
mikema63 wrote:Math is a form of logic that generates necessary conclusions from premises. It is the single most powerful tool humanity has ever invented and if it can't help lead to paradigm shifts then I'd despair that anything actually could do so.

It can be used and abused by humans of course but it is still a tool that anyone with some grounding in math can analyze.

Fundamentally there may be a difference in attitude towards math vs. verbal arguments between us. You may not know this but years ago when I joined pofo right when I finished high school I was a right wing libertarian (in part just because of upbringing). I was taken in by austrian economics which is a group that reject mathematical models entirely in favor of verbal arguments about how the economy works.

Ultimately it amounts to little more than verbal slight of hand to justify some of the most ridiculous policy positions imaginable, it's all utter unverifiable nonsense that rejects entirely any attempt to critically analyze it with mathematical tools. I was taken in for a decent amount of time because I didn't really understand math and it led me to conclusions that not only supported my biases but took them to the most ridiculous possible totalizing libertarian conclusions.

Having had the experience of being totally bamboozled by this sort of verbal argument that eschews mathematical analysis I went into my degree program and was basically brought up in the institutional culture of the sciences. I learned to truly appreciate math not only as a tool but as a beautiful thing in it's own right, with massive power to correct our deepest biases.

So fundamentally I have a deep respect for mathematics and a hypercaution towards verbal arguments because of my life experiences. Which is a gap I'm not sure I can bridge with you who seem to distrust the math and prefer entirely verbal arguments.

The way you talk about the Austrian school makes it sound as if their mistake was their use of language over math. But to make explicit, i’m not eschewing mathematics in itself. But since you are focused on math and it’s ability to help illuminate understanding, a point can be made that the fetish of maths has lead to it’s inappropriate/inapt use, as such is asserted by Tony Lawson who is shifting the discussion for reconsideration of the ontology of economics presumed.
See https://sci-hub.bz/10.1177/0486613408324412 for a review of his book. In which his criticism of the manner in which math is used, is insensitive to the ontological nature of the reality economists are meant to be modelling.
https://www.worldeconomicsassociation.org/newsletterarticles/interview-with-tony-lawson/
I’m merely arguing that in social science, including economics, we should take account the nature of social reality in fashioning methods appropriate to exploring specific aspects of it. The problem of modern economics is that methods are determined a priori without consideration of the nature of the task. Whatever the question or object of analysis, mainstream economists insist in advance that certain sorts of methods of mathematical modelling are always the appropriate tools.

Q2: What do you mean by atomism and closed systems? How do these categories figure in your critique of mainstream economics?

TL: OK now you are asking for details of ontological argument. Given the modern emphasis on mathematical modelling it is important to determine the conditions in which such tools are appropriate or useful. In other words we need to uncover the ontological presuppositions involved in the insistence that mathematical methods of a certain sort be everywhere employed. The first thing to note is that all these mathematical methods that economists use presuppose event regularities or correlations. This makes modern economics a form of deductivism. A closed system in this context just means any situation in which an event regularity occurs. Deductivism is a form of explanation that requires event regularities. Now event regularities can just be assumed to hold, even if they cannot be theorised, and some econometricians do just that and dedicate their time to trying to uncover them. But most economists want to theorise in economic terms as well. But clearly they must do so in terms that guarantee event regularity results. The way to do this is to formulate theories in terms of isolated atoms. By an atom I just mean a factor that has the same independent effect whatever the context. Typically human individuals are portrayed as the atoms in question, though there is nothing essential about this. Notice too that most debates about the nature of rationality are beside the point. Mainstream modellers just need to fix the actions of the individual of their analyses to render them atomistic, i.e., to fix their responses to given conditions. It is this implausible fixing of actions that tends to be expressed though, or is the task of, any rationality axiom. But in truth any old specification will do, including fixed rule or algorithm following as in, say, agent based modelling; the precise assumption used to achieve this matters little. Once some such axiom or assumption-fixing behaviour is made economists can predict/deduce what the factor in question will do if stimulated. Finally the specification in this way of what any such atom does in given conditions allows the prediction activities of economists ONLY if nothing is allowed to counteract the actions of the atoms of analysis. Hence these atoms must additionally be assumed to act in isolation. It is easy to show that this ontology of closed systems of isolated atoms characterises all of the substantive theorising of mainstream economists.

It is also easy enough to show that the real world, the social reality in which we actually live, is of a nature that is anything but a set of closed systems of isolated atoms (see Lawson, 1997, 2003)

Q3: If your critique means that we have real problems with current mainstream approaches, how should they be addressed?

TL: Basically we should elaborate the real nature of social reality and tailor our methods to that nature. This is a long story that I have elaborated upon over and again (again see Lawson, 1997, 2003). All I would add here is that your use of the phrase “current mainstream approaches” could be misleading. The defining feature of modern mainstream economics, as I see it, is its insistence on methods of mathematical modelling. It is this dogmatism that both defines the mainstream and is the problem. I see nothing wrong with individual economists experimenting with mathematical methods here and there in the hope that in the contexts of analysis, the relevant conditions hold. The mainstream does not own the methods or approaches they employ any more than they own mathematics. There is nothing wrong with mathematical methods per se only with the manner in which they are used. The problem of the mainstream is one of application of methods in inappropriate conditions. Mainstream economists insist that their mathematical methods be applied to all problems. They fail to differentiate the conditions of legitimate and illegitimate application. So ultimately the failure is one of ontological neglect, no doubt grounded in a cultural-ideological presupposition that mathematics is somehow necessary to all scientific activity, understanding and rigour. In this they are just misguided.

Tony Lawson is from the Critical realist school of thought which is significantly influenced by Marxist thought though not synonymous with it.
But to make explicit, the problem isn’t the maths, the response isn’t that there shouldn’t be maths in economics. As such I can agree with there being a great utility to maths, but the great mathematical techniques do not make up for problematic abstractions about the nature of the economy.

I know very little about philosophy in psychology so I can't really comment, but it seems to me that psychology as a field has gotten better at addressing issues than ever before. The way I see it is that it's a necessary if a bit blind endeavor, addressing mental issues is important but we simply don't have any strong foundations to work from when it started and so it was just bumbling in the dark. We couldn't not try to address these important issues but we had no idea where to start so people seem to have just sort of made things up.

We understand things a bit better now and have stronger foundations to address mental issues from now.

It has certainly done a lot, but it’s still incredibly fractured.
https://www.politicsforum.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=166183
Wilhelm Wudnt provided a theoretical foundation to legitimize experimental psychology, although its debtable the strength of such a foundation. But it was good in opening up a line of inquiry previously held impossible by some.
But the use of such a point was that one’s methods never get further than the assmptions that underpin them and if they are in error, then it seems likely that it’s futile to work on the method when one needs to move beyond the assumptions that underpin it. Though one might not really consider there to be a distinction between the assumptions of theory that gives legitimacy and the methods as the process should presumably inform one another.


And yet it is also the accumulation of facts that stretch the dominant paradigm in the sciences that ultimately cause people to go to a new paradigm. Facts are facts, and when necessary conclusions begin to strain the foundations of the dominant paradigm it will break apart.

Facts are facts within a certain framework of belief, that framework sets limits on what is considered and accepted as fact. And it’s not all that apparent that when things are strained that it breaks into a fundamentally new paradigm, as proven with general equilibrium theory which has been fucked up for ages but apparently still in vogue. Because, the transition to a new paradigm isn’t all that rational.
You’ll have to keep reading beyond Thomas Kuhn and see how Imre Lakatos tries to reconcile Kuhn with Poper for a demarcation of science and by Paul Feyerabend, fails the task.
https://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/philosophy/works/ge/feyerabe.htm
Even the ingenious attempt of Lakatos to construct a methodology that (a) does not issue orders and yet (b) puts restrictions upon our knowledge-increasing activities, does not escape this conclusion. For Lakatos' philosophy appears liberal only because it is an anarchism in disguise. And his standards which are abstracted from modern science cannot be regarded as neutral arbiters in the issue between modern science and Aristotelian science, myth, magic, religion, etc.


I'd argue that this is itself a rather simplistic reduction of society to just class issues and scientific ideas to just developments in class conflict. Darwins revolutionary idea wasn't born out of class conflict, it was born out of our growing understanding of the natural world.

I don't think any one shift in understanding can be linked to any one thing or indeed the same things in every case. Eienstein didn't fundamentally overturn newton because of any particular ideological shifts in society for example. Though the Nazi's amusingly thought they could ignore facts on the grounds of being jewish.

You seem to suffer from pessimism as much as anything else on this point. You just don't think people who do what they love with an honest commitment to find the truth are ever capable of coming to "correct" conclusions. You seem particularly hung up on marginalism for ideological reasons and I'm concerned that you are staring down one concept you don't like as your barometer for whether or not economics is capable of coming to better conlcusions without considering the field as a whole and embracing the possibility that you might not be entirely correct yourself. You are coming from a particular ideological view as much as anyone else and could be as blind to the flaws in the labor theory of value or whatever it is that you believe in as they might be blind to the flaws of the marginal theory of value.

Personally I don't have strong opinions on the particular topic since I don't know enough to form a strong opinion and don't see it as being the most pressing issue for me personally.

I do however embrace that I could be wrong about a great many things that I hold personally near and dear to my heart, though I shudder to think of being wrong about these deeply held personal beliefs that form the foundation of my belief structures, I have been deeply wrong before after all (i.e. my ancap period, good god what was I thinking?)

Well if I understand Feyerabend any, the idea here isn’t to mistake my focus on class as being the reduction of all of reality. The distinction being an awareness between that which is reality and the abstractions. But I’m not sure I posit things in a class reductionist way in that my assertion was that the bougsie in their corresponding relations emerging had them destroy the Church.
Without such a change, it’s not entirely clear that Darwin’s work would have spread and gained favour in the manner that it did. The Age of Enlightenment preceded Darwin’s work in 1850.
I didn;t assert Darwin’s understanding itself was a product of class struggle, but that it’s proliferation seems largely amicable to the rise of the bourgeoisie and the displacement of the Church’s authority/power.
https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/althusser/1970/ideology.htm
In the pre-capitalist historical period which I have examined extremely broadly, it is absolutely clear that there was one dominant Ideological State Apparatus, the Church, which concentrated within it not only religious functions, but also educational ones, and a large proportion of the functions of communications and ‘culture’. It is no accident that all ideological struggle, from the sixteenth to the eighteenth century, starting with the first shocks of the Reformation, was concentrated in an anti-clerical and anti-religious struggle; rather this is a function precisely of the dominant position of the religious Ideological State Apparatus.

The foremost objective and achievement of the French Revolution was not just to transfer State power from the feudal aristocracy to the merchant-capitalist bourgeoisie, to break part of the former repressive State apparatus and replace it with a new one (e.g., the national popular Army) but also to attack the number-one Ideological State Apparatus: the Church. Hence the civil constitution of the clergy, the confiscation of ecclesiastical wealth, and the creation of new Ideological State Apparatuses to replace the religious Ideological State Apparatus in its dominant role.

Naturally, these things did not happen automatically: witness the Concordat, the Restoration and the long class struggle between the landed aristocracy and the industrial bourgeoisie throughout the nineteenth century for the establishment of bourgeois hegemony over the functions formerly fulfilled by the Church: above all by the Schools. It can be said that the bourgeoisie relied on the new political, parliamentary-democratic, Ideological State Apparatus, installed in the earliest years of the Revolution, then restored after long and violent struggles, for a few months in 1848 and for decades after the fall of the Second Empire, in order to conduct its struggle against the Church and wrest its ideological functions away from it, in other words, to ensure not only its own political hegemony, but also the ideological hegemony indispensable to the reproduction of capitalist relations of production.

That is why I believe that I am justified in advancing the following Thesis, however precarious it is. I believe that the Ideological State Apparatus which has been installed in the dominant position in mature capitalist social formations as a result of a violent political and ideological class struggle against the old dominant Ideological State Apparatus, is the educational ideological apparatus.


Indeed I’m hung up on Marginalism in that it posits ideological obscrufication no matter the science and facts that it does arrive at, in not that it’s entirely false but the way in which is frames it’s knowledge is false eg an atomistic ontology.
There are others who do indeed come up with better conclusions for a difference in their view and methods. I’m unclear whether Marx believes in a labor theory of value as it seems he rather critiqued the it although he did posit that value was constituted by socially necessary labor time.
http://libcom.org/files/marx,%20marginalism%20and%20modern%20sociology%20-%20clarke.pdf
I argued in the last chapter that Marx’s critique of alienated labour defines a quite different project from that of simply re-interpreting political economy from a different class viewpoint. Far from defining the historical form of the social relations of capitalist production on the basis of the private ownership of the means of production, Marx insisted clearly and unequivocally that this was precisely the source of the errors of political economy, which failed to see that private property was only the expression of alienated labour. Thus, far from Marx adopting Ricardo’s labour theory of value, the key to Marx’s critique of political economy was his critique of that theory.

Far from adopting the labour theory of value to ‘prove’ the exploitation of the working class, Marx’s critique of Ricardo undermines any such proof, both philosophically, in undermining the liberal theory of property which sees labour as the basis of proprietorial rights, and theoretically, in removing the immediate connection between the expenditure of individual labour and the value of the commodity, so that the relationship between ‘effort’ and ‘reward’ can only be constituted socially. Thus Marx was harshly critical of ‘Ricardian socialism’ which proclaimed labour’s entitlement to its product, arguing that such a ‘right’ was only a bourgeois right, expressing bourgeois property relations.4

Just a nitpicky clarification.


I strongly believe in the institutions power. Perhaps I am overly optimistic, perhaps I am naive, but I really do think you are overly pessimistic that nothing can come from the economics departments because they haven't already adopted your particular ideas about how the economy functions.

Somethings do come from economists, many are quite incredibly bright, but many for all their brightness are quite restricted. Somethings can come from economics, but there are things lacking and I think that is a structural point in the way economics as a field is designed and has been based in it’s origins (Marginalist revolution). It avoided the politics of the political economy and restricted itself from some evaluative discussions (fact value distinction).
But economists have a lot to answer for when people lose their homes and jobs and they are left still asserting the rationality of the capitalist market even though they are left dumbfounded as to how to explain something like the GFC (2008).
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/the-dilemma-of-the-mainstream/

That some universities or institutions haven’t adopted my ideas isn’t my criticism of them, there are specific criticisms to be made. The dislike isn’t a critique in itself of course.

How do you judge this? It would seem to me that the abstractions you find superior would be simply those that appeal to your values, preconceived beliefs, and various cognitive biases.

I can only say that I am radically suspicious of such an approach without fundamental tools like mathematics. I distrust myself far to much to deem myself an arbiter of whose abstractions are better than others.

I’ll reiterate that I’m not arguing a position for non-mathematics.
Then I keep coming back to how you can believe in anything, a moderate scepticism is healthy but one runs into mere subjectivism if stuck in such a mindset, a negative infinity. Though of course you believe in things.
But I assert as such in the way that one is persuaded by anything, not just through reason but experience. It took me a long time of mulling over stuff in regards to Marx’s epistemology and Evald Ilyenkov’s characterization of Marx’s sense of abstraction.
And whilst it can be difficult to compare some abstractions, it can also be foolish should one posit all abstractions as equal (what leads to negative infinity in scepticism). But often to critique one manner of thought requires it be internally critiqued rather than smashed against that which has different views. Which is why I’m not saying believe what I believe though I’ll sprinkle points from my view, but instead to shake that comfort in economists.

But I judge the abstractions to be superior in that I think there is a significant flaw in the manner of abstracting an empirical entity from it’s real world relations.
Marx thinks relationally rather than associatively and as such thinks about things in a way that I think is simply more illuminating.
But as to how to anyone is persuaded, I guess one listens to things and finds that it accords with their reasoning and sense of the world.
I always recommend Ilyenkov and this page summarizing him as good first steps https://kapitalism101.wordpress.com/2014/07/21/abstraction-abstract-labor-and-ilyenkov/
Might take it as shit but it was a big find for me in clarifying a lot. But it took quite a lot of re-reading it among other bits and pieces to get a sense of what was meant by ‘concrete abstraction’. Which as far as I can tell relates to what I think is Hegel’s solution to the issue of essence in which the essence of any one thing is how it is constituted by it’s real world relations, as opposed to abstracted from them (end up with empty forms this way detached from their empirical content).
If you wish to understand what relations are actually important to abstract them why on earth would you not start from what the current relations in the world today are? :?:

I would add that mathematical models take real world information and make real world conclusions, the are not as you make out purely abstract.

Then, I think you should get back into a study of Marx considering such a view seems most amicable to him in beginning from the empirically real, then abstracting from it in order to return back to the real with concrete abstractions.
https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1857/grundrisse/ch01.htm#loc3
If I were to begin with the population, this would be a chaotic conception of the whole, and I would then, by means of further determination, move analytically towards ever more simple concepts, from the imagined concrete towards ever thinner abstractions until I had arrived at the simplest determinations. From there the journey would have to be retraced until I had arrived at the population again, but this time not as the chaotic conception of a whole, but as a rich totality of many determinations and relations.

One is meant to start from the world as it actually exists.
But the issue still remains how on abstracts that empirical world, which gets back to the point that the way in which the world is conceived is the issue and once again, if that view has problematic assumptions. Then it doesn’t matter how much empirical data you want to throw at it, the framing is inadequate.
http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae/publications/working_papers/stilldead.pdf
For those who are overwhelmed by the ongoing mathematical escalation in economic theory, McCloskey’s call to turn away from empty formalism toward real empirical work has a certain refreshing charm. But even applied researchers often present their work in terms of the abstractions of what she calls “blackboard economics.” Some theory is present, explicitly or implicitly, in any empirical study. In applied economics today, it is common to find explicit reliance on a general equilibrium framework, and hence implicit reliance on the dynamic stability of its equilibrium points.

The purely abstract is stated in terms that the models are ideal models that don’t really correspond all that well with the real world in a lot of ways in that they’re based on a conception of the world that is inadequate.

I simply fail to see the issue you are claiming here. Economics seems to be a rather expansive field doing all sorts of wide ranging things. It studies everything from individual behaviors and small scale microeconomics to the study of institutions large and small, to the entire economy of all of society and how this or that effects it. What makes you say it is so narrowly focused?

I say narrow or restricted or limited in that relative to political economy it is. https://www.marxists.org/glossary/terms/t/h.htm
The other significant component which marked the departure of bourgeois economic science from the tradition of political economy was this: political economy had for its aim to explain why people lived the way they did, and part of this was to explain why and how the wealth of the world was distributed in the way it was, i.e., why there were rich and poor for example. The new economic science was definitively not interested in investigating this, but took distribution as a given. This change was also tied up with a change in ethical conceptions: whereas Adam Smith had been concerned to understand why people placed a greater or lesser value on things, the new economic science was not interested in this. Mill and Bentham’s Utilitarianism was founded on the conception of “freedom of the individual” to the extent that enquiry into virtue, ie., into why we value this or that, was ruled out. Adam Smith arrived at the conclusion that value was determined by the quantity of socially necessary labour embodied in the production of a commodity, for Utilitarianism, value was “in the eye of the beholder”.

http://libcom.org/files/marx,%20marginalism%20and%20modern%20sociology%20-%20clarke.pdf
The new methods of analysis arose out of a new concern with the problem of prices. Economists had always sought to explain the determination of prices as part of their enterprise. What the marginalists introduced was an emphasis on the need for a rigorous theory of price determination. For classical political economy the determination of prices was a subordinate concern. The central theoretical issues were those of the constitutional order within which capitalism could best develop to the advantage of the nation as a whole, and of the relations between the classes proper to such a development. This led classical political economy to pose questions of distribution within the framework of a theory of growth, within which the rigorous determination of individual prices was of little concern, so long as the determination of prices could be assumed not to conflict too seriously with the theory of distribution. For the marginalists this order of priorities was inverted, and the central concern became one of developing a rigorous theory of price determination.

Within classical political economy the determination of prices was subordinate to the problem of distribution and prices were the by-product of the theory of distribution. Once wages, rent and the rate of profit had been determined, prices could be derived by adding together the component parts. However the contradiction between the classical theory of production and the Ricardian theory of distribution meant that the resultant prices did not coincide with the values according to which the distributive categories were determined. Hence within the Ricardian system the determination of prices was always subject to the qualifications that this divergence necessarily introduced. The vulgar critics of classical political economy had exploited this contradiction to reject the classical theory of distribution and the theory of value on which it was based. However, although they asserted the priority of price over value or even the exclusive reality of price as against value, they could offer no rigorous theory of price determination, nor did they seriously seek to develop such a theory.

The marginalists followed the vulgar economists in their concern with the question of prices, but they did not follow them in rejecting the need for a theory of value. For the marginalists a theory of value was essential to any attempt to develop a rigorous theory of price, and the scientific weakness of the classical theory of value was that it could not achieve this. The task the marginalists set themselves was to develop a rigorous theory of price determination on the basis of the subjective theory of value, the basis of the marginalist theory of value was initially defined as ‘utility’.

You see a vast sea, but I see it has having been made smaller, and now amount of dicing it up would make it that massive relative to the task of understanding in the political economy.
It has largely ignored the question of society, reduced itself, left a gap for sociology considering itself a value neutral science of resource allocation where there was once no need for the distinction of economics and sociology. Because the distinction between economy and society is conceptual but not empirical and to tear out society as it is from the technical calculations in economics of the marginalsit variant, is to render it impotent to certain considerations.
I guess an analogy to help think about it is how some Americans say they have a good healthcare system because of waiting times or something whilst downplaying how many people who would want or need healthcare aren’t readily accessing it. Sure one does a good job at what one is doing but one has largely neglected a significant lot. Now in considering the capitalist economy, economics has confined itself in a way that leads to all sorts of nonsense dualities and obscures real questions about capitalism treating it ahistorical as presupposed in it’s particular relations.

This seems a hefty claim indeed. :eh:

You seem to be asserting that Darwin was only able to discover evolution because he had somehow used some aspect of your ideology to do so. You could see how this would make me rather suspicious of the claim. It has an air of "i'm totally right about how the world works and so anyone else who was right must have secretly shared the way I think about stuff ideologically".

What shocks you about it?
Darwin was able to conceive of the essence of organisms (although he didn’t know the basic unit that underpins as such, the cell). The previous Linnaeus Taxonomy was associative in terms of appearance only, but didn’t grasp the essence of organisms.
Got to think about change and how simply looking at appearances doesn’t suffice as this just ends up with snapshot sense of things rather than properly conceiving of how one things turns into another.
https://www.scribd.com/document/93941626/Getting-to-Know-Hegel-by-Andy-Blunden
When we say that truth is historical, this observation has a further meaning. Forexample, if we define "fish" in terms of a sub-category of species organised inthe manner of Linnaeus, we quickly find ourselves with a host of hybrids and"border-line cases" which cannot be satisfactorily classified "fish" or "not-fish"without in fact losing the notion of Fish. "Fish" is in fact not a set of propertiesbe means of which an object may be classified as "fish" or "not-fish" - as aresult of the discovery by Darwin of the origin of species, we can nowunderstand the category of "fish" as a particular stage or arm in the evolution of species, and it is by the relation of a given species to this genesis that we maycall it "fish" or "not-fish"

It is important to understand that the notion of a thing is not just it's history, the story of it's rise and fall, but the underlying principle or truth of its genesis.

To which the unviersal or essence, the real thing which underpins all particulars, is not identified by associative features but something else.
I recommend this piece to clarify this point https://kapitalism101.wordpress.com/2014/07/21/abstraction-abstract-labor-and-ilyenkov/

But also: https://www.marxists.org/archive/ilyenkov/works/articles/universal.htm
And might see the point of how the ‘old logic’ finds itself at an impasse when it comes to comprehending things when thinking of them associatively.
I don’t seek to use Darwin’s reputation to imbue Marxism with some grand authority, but instead argue that the way Darwin thought was exactly inline with the manner in which Marx thought as inherited from Hegel (though different in that Hegel apparently doesn’t posit a real existing universal, only conceptual or ideal). If anything, it’s more to implore you to consider how Darwin came to such a conclusion and the manner of thought to see that Marxism isn’t some alien thing out to trick you, but that it posits things that should accord with your very reasoning should you give it attention.
My point isn't that sociology complete economics. Philosophy of economics matters too, in some way shape or form every field will touch on every other and impact each other. The divisions between fields are in part arbitrary after all, a discovery in one field can challenge the foundations of another. Every field of science and study are different levels of focus on the same reality after all, not so perfectly divided as all that. There will always be criticism of each and that matters.

This type of argument matters.

I'm not claiming that economics itself as an individual field with not influence from outside is necessarily able to transcend itself. the entire institution of science and academics is required, all of society is required. Anything isolated in a vacuum will be sterile.

But how actively intermingled and interdisplinary economics is I wonder. There are some cracks and potential in people starting to discuss things more.
https://www.worldeconomicsassociation.org/newsletterarticles/interview-with-tony-lawson/
But at least for a forum like this one in Paris2, where there are nearly 700 heterodox economists, we can seek to be serious in our papers, to be respectful both to each other as audience members and also to our subject-matters. We don’t need to show how clever we all are; let us take the capabilities of each other as givens. What is needed, yet can be lacking, is real engagement and debate over the nature of the social world and how it works, a progression of the discipline. Instead we allow features like numbers of publications, citations, rankings of journals in which we publish, and so forth to dominate the manner in which we do things. This all results in, or is a manifestation of, a dumbing down of the discipline. It is anti-intellectual. Yes it is the path of the mainstream. But the whole point of heterodoxy I assume is to distance ourselves from mainstream practices that can clearly be seen to be indefensible. I am sorry if this sounds heavy. And of course I’m saying that I must raise my standards as much as anyone else. But I think it is gatherings like this that can help us; and it is in gatherings like this that we can hopefully be allowed to try. I am hopeful that we can draw strength from each other, and connect with each others’ research in serious and respectful ways. Up to a point we already do; some contributors especially. But I feel that many of us could do so much better.


Of course I am not suggesting that we must all agree with each other; or that everything deserves publication; only that we engage and encourage engagement, that we don’t exclude on non-intellectual grounds. I recognise that resources including journal space are limited; heterodox ones especially. That is why I believe that heterodox journals should not fill themselves with the sort of mathematical exercises that can get into, and indeed are the sole content of, mainstream journals. But I certainly think heterodox journals should be open to, say, mainstream contributors who wish to argue that the current emphasis and insistence on mathematical modelling is entirely appropriate. The problem here, of course, is that mainstream economists do not seem willing to argue a case; they merely take it as given that mathematical tools are appropriate. And they thereby, and in this manner, exclude all alternatives. My worry is that certain heterodox and methodological journals sometimes act in similar anti-intellectual ways to other heterodox views with which they feel uncomfortable or in competition or whatever.

The second positive feature I would like to emphasise is the launch of the pluralistic World Economics Association (WEA), and its various activities, not least its open forum journals. To the latter everyone can submit papers, observe the submission of papers by others, observe in turn the feedback received from referees and any and all others wishing to make an input, engage with any of the latter, all leading to final revisions, and so on. Such an open process appears necessarily free from some of the concerns I raised earlier. The whole thing seems designed to be truly pluralistic. I do so hope these sorts of developments continue, and are widely recognised and supported.


I would never claim that philosophy doesn't have a role here or that you shouldn't make your arguments. I do think you are underestimating people within this fields ability to think more deeply about things. Many people don't of course but that's true of everyone. It seems a little unfair to imagine every scientist of being reduce to a thoughtless cog.

Oh they can think deeply, but that doesn’t change the sad state of economics as a field for me and others. I don’t think of them as thoughtless cogs, hell they can be incredibly thoughtful, but that doesn’t mean they find the means to overcome their issues for all their thinking. But when I posit tunnel vision, the point is related to the earlier characterization of the inadequate nature of how the world is assumed to be in economic thought.
Which is why I bring up Tony Lawson as a positive influence in pressing the discussion on ontology.

Funnily the last sentence here is something the Austrians would say all the time. That is where the models come in, with a model you can take your hypothesis and take real world data and create necessary conclusions about the future if your hypothesis is true. It's hard to do science in the way physicists or chemists do on the whole of humanity and society but I'd point to ecology which studies many subjects that can be hard to do controlled experiments on but can produce very good work. This isn't in and of itself a fatal flaw.

If something can't be studied in the real world it can only be because two conflicting theories would produce the same results in that area. In which case if those distinctions matter you can fight over it but I'm more concerned with real world effects than logical debates about marginalism and the labor theory of value.

If either theory of value gave the same results all else being equal then I probably wont care all that much about which one is right. If those theories have other necessary conclusions that are good or bad then we have something to indirectly test those theories with.

My point is that whilst one can do empirical tests, one won’t find that a theory is readily dispensed with even if a hypothesis is shown to be wrong. And oddly enough, one finds that those who don’t believe in the LTV don’t find conclusive results and those who do, tend to.
Overall, the LTV in Marx’s conception (alienated labor) doesn’t seem to have been conclusively proven right nor false. As I understand it Marx at this point has been shown to be 100% internally consistent when interpreted correctly as people have long misinterpreted him according to some. But to the empirical proof of his theorizing is still needing to be done.
The falling rate of profit I imagine has difficulties in that there are tendencies to counter it and so it seems many things are acting simultaneously at once.


I don't know all that much about the barter illusion, but models are math and math can be right or wrong based on the presuppositions used. Any particular example of a bad model doesn't make modeling fundamentally flawed.

If all economics models have some fundamental flaw I'm not aware of it is because they are poorly constructed, not because math can't describe reality.

Indeed there can be such a thing as bad modelling but again, my issue isn’t with math but with the axioms of how the economy is conceived in economic models.
I must wonder where I gave of this impression of anti-math as it permeates your response.


A model that gives out false answers because it is grounded in untrue things about reality is a bad model, which can be ultimately rejected as flawed because it will give bad conclusions which do not map onto reality. It will be falsified.

Again, one can have hypothesis falsified but this doesn’t lead to the rejection of the theory.
But to get to a point that might be compelling to you, much of economics of the marginalist variant begins from individuals exhcnaing with one another (why is referenced the barter illusion which abstracts away commodities in a market and capitalist relations)
Based on this [url]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonnenschein–Mantel–Debreu_theorem[/url]
Think I linked this earlier but this gives a good rendition of the above in relation to General Equllbirum Theory http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae/publications/working_papers/stilldead.pdf
Instability arises in part because aggregate demand is not as well-behaved as individual demand. If the aggregate demand function looked like an individual demand function -- that is, if the popular theoretical fiction of a “representative individual” could be used to represent market behavior -- then there would be no problem. Unfortunately, though, the aggregation problem is intrinsic and inescapable. There is no representative individual whose demand function generates the instability found in the SMD theorem (Kirman 1992). Groups of people display patterns and structures of behavior that are not present in the behavior of the individual members; this is a mathematical truth with obvious importance throughout the social sciences.

For contemporary economics, this suggests that the pursuit of microfoundations for macroeconomics is futile. Even if individual behavior were perfectly understood, it would be impossible to draw useful conclusions about macroeconomics directly from that understanding, due to the aggregation problem (Rizvi 1994, Martel 1996). This fact is reflected in Arrow’s one-sentence summary of the SMD result, quoted at the beginning of this section (“In the aggregate, the hypothesis of rational behavior has in general no implications.”).

The microeconomic model of behavior contributes to instability because it says too little about what individuals want or do. From a mathematical standpoint, as Saari suggests, there are too many dimensions of possible variation, too many degrees of freedom, to allow results at a useful level of specificity. The consumer is free to roam over the vast expanse of available commodities, subject only to a budget constraint and the thinnest possible conception of rationality: anything you can afford is acceptable, so long as you avoid blatant inconsistency in your preferences.

The assumed independence of individuals from each other, emphasized by Kirman, is an important part but not the whole of the problem. A reasonable model of social behavior should recognize the manner in which individuals are interdependent; the standard economic theory of consumption fails to acknowledge any forms of interdependence, except through market transactions. However, merely amending the theory to allow more varied social interactions will not produce a simpler or more stable model. Indeed, if individuals are modeled as following or conforming to the behavior of others, the interactions will create positive feedback loops in the model, increasing the opportunity for unstable responses to small fluctuations (see Section 4).


This point being not just testing done mathematically, but that the theoretical assumptions set limits which made it untenable. Hence my point that it doesn’t matter how good the methods are if the very foundation of such work is inadequate.
But if you look at it, the point is that it persists in spite of it’s inadequacy, there hasn’t been some radical shift in some of the mainstream. This is the sort of shit that’s put in textbooks.
We all struggle in an absurd universe and die, looking for meaning that isn't there the whole time. :)

I really don't know what more to say to this part except that it's a problem that's true of everyone and everything past, present, and future. Not much I can really do to address the concern that humans are human and that makes everything we do flawed. :hmm:

The lack of meaning comes from alienation as ;) Once in the form of religion but now in the form of the commodity over man.
People can do better, the point is that the conceptual distinction between subjectivity and objectivity is a lot murkier considering that our perception of the objective is subjective. But its to emphasize that our perception is mediated and to then ponder how there are suprasensuos things which are ‘objective’. The meaning and essence of things not embodied within the object itself but within empirical entities as constituted with their relations. The prime example being money which isn’t simply subjective value, which is what occurs for the empiricist that posits anything that isn’t empirical as subjectivity. It has real value as revealed when one uses it, because it is constituted by a market of commodities in which it is the universal commodity. Which relates back to the point about the barter illusion, discussing with someone else how money is treated as insignificant despite the barter illusion because its rationalized a way as just smoothing along transactions. The below also makes the point of the illegitimacy of generalizing from the individual exchange.
http://libcom.org/files/marx,%20marginalism%20and%20modern%20sociology%20-%20clarke.pd
The implications for the marginalist analysis of exchange become clear as soon as we turn to the explanation of money. For the marginalists money is simply a means of avoiding the inconvenience of barter, which has no substantive implications. However, barter cannot be reduced to the elementary form of immediate exchange, for in barter the individual acquires things through exchange with a view to their subsequent exchange for other things. The ‘inconvenience of barter does not lie in the mediated character of the exchange relation, which requires the individual to enter two exchange relations instead of only one, for this is as much the case when money serves as the mediating term in the exchange as it is when any other commodity plays that role. The ‘inconvenience’ of barter lies in the fact that the first exchange is conditional on the outcome of the second, the results of which cannot be known with certainty. I may wish to exchange corn for meat, but the butcher may want not corn but cloth. The butcher may be willing to accept my corn in exchange for her meat, with a view to subsequently exchanging the corn for cloth with somebody else. In this event neither of us wants the corn in itself, but only as the means of exchange for something else: corn serves in this exchange not as a use-value, but as a value. However, in exchanging meat for corn the butcher runs the risk of not being able to make the subsequent exchange on the anticipated terms, and this is where the ‘inconvenience’ of barter lies.

The use of durable, infinitely divisible commodities, with a high value in relation to their volume, as means of exchange certainly removes some of the physical inconvenience attached to less suitable commodities, but it does not solve the fundamental problem of barter, that exchanges are made conditional on an uncertain outcome. If corn is not in general demand the butcher will be unwilling to accept corn in exchange for meat, but the introduction of money does not solve this problem, for if corn is not in general demand I will no more be able to exchange my corn for money than I was able to exchange it for meat. On the other hand, if I am able to sell my corn for money, the rationality of this exchange is not determined by the conditions of this exchange alone, but also by my uncertain expectation of the future price of meat. It is the uncertainty of the outcome of particular exchanges that disqualifies particular commodities from serving as the means of exchange, and gives rise to money as the universal equivalent. However money does not remove the uncertainty attached to particular exchanges, it merely expresses that uncertainty in a universal form. Money does not resolve the inconvenience of barter, it generalises it. Far from expressing the rationality of exchange, money expresses the irrationality of a system of social production in which provision for human need is achieved only through the alienated form of commodity exchange.

The explanation of money presents problems of a different order from those raised by recognition of inequalities of wealth and power, because the existence of money cannot be explained without abandoning the most fundamental assumptions of the marginalist model. In the elementary act of exchange the agents of exchange knew with certainty the range of opportunities available to them, expressed in the reciprocal offers of each party to the exchange. If the exchange-ratios of all commodities, in the present and the future, are generally known, the results achieved in the analysis of the elementary act of exchange can be generalised to a system of indirect exchange. However, in the absence of uncertainty as to future exchange-ratios, every commodity can serve indifferently as means of exchange, and there is no need for one commodity to serve as a universal equivalent. On the other hand, if we recognise the existence of ignorance and uncertainty we can explain the emergence of money, but it is no longer legitimate to generalise the results achieved in the analysis of the elementary act of exchange.



People fall in love with their own beliefs. I wouldn't really expect them to reject flawed beliefs overnight. This is true in many fields, people fought over whether or not atoms existed in physics for far longer than the evidence in it's favor would have you expect. It's just how people are. It happens in every academic field, we just have to have people keep pointing it out and have the evidence keep piling up and struggling till the truth wins out.

Indeed, but I would say many have had long enough. But the real issue isn’t just to be shown to be wrong, but given an alternative otherwise one still requires that which one believes to be false to function. Even in knowing it’s wrong one will still act accordingly, because things are changed through disbelief, thats just a good precondition to change. But to change one needs the alternatives which some people find, but others won’t. Well it takes a lot of struggle for truth to become truth and I’m not sure how much struggling is going on.


Nothing happens in a vacuum of course.

I would say that you are making too strong a statement in the other direction though. You seem to be making the statement that what economists think is simply a secondary consequence of everything else when I don't see it as so clear as that. Economic theory can drive changes in society and society can drive changes in economic theory but they aren't so seperate that one causes the other in one direction only.

Indeed. https://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12613281/index.pdf
Even in the German Ideology, Marx explicitly points out that “circumstances make men just as much as men make circumstance” (GI. 165), and this sentence obviously shows that the real concrete’s relation to law, morality, religion, consciousness etc. is not one-sidedly determined. Of course, intellectual wealth directly depends on material conditions (GI. 154, 163, 166, and 172), but human beings affect and even change the material conditions and the circumstances in so far as it is possible for them to do so within the boundaries of the restrictions set by these conditions. Material conditions and intellectual wealth affect each other: “The production of ideas, of conceptions, of consciousness; is at firstly directly interwoven with the material activity and the material intercourse of men” (GI. 154 italics mine)

Our ideas can lead to change, but the ideas that lead to change are ones in tension with the society, not that which naturalizes the status quo. The status quo has it’s influence of course, this is what constitutes a hegemony, but wish to be clear that the change doesn’t come from apologists, not all ideas are out to change things. In this case, things keep changing but nothing changes at all applies I think. The appearance of things changes but real qualitative change doesn’t seem all that apparent for somethings.

But it’s also the case that…
http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/10867/1/VWills_ETD_2011.pdf
Marx's second argument against Kantian morality is that its focus on the free will belies the extent to which the will is itself determined by material conditions and material interests. The abstraction of the “free will” is illegitimate according to Marx because it attempts to prize apart the intellectual life of individuals from their economic, social, and historical context. A person with a will that is “wholly independent of foreign causes determining it,” to adopt Kant's phrase, simply does not exist in reality, and therefore such a subject makes a rather poor starting point for moral theory. (Later, in 1853, Marx writes, there critiquing Hegel, “Is it not a delusion to substitute for the individual with his real motives, with multifarious social circumstances pressing upon him, the abstraction of “free-will” — one among the many qualities of man for man himself”74!)

What Marx describes when he addresses the way in which economic laws play a role in determining the actions of human beings, are tendencies of members of various social groups to act in circumstances shaped through those laws, and not iron-clad predictions for particular individuals. Howard Sherman, in his 1981 paper, “Marx and Determinism,” puts this point very nicely when he writes:

Marx pointed out that one can find regularities of human behavior, that on the average we do behave in certain predictable ways. This behavior also changes in systematic ways, with predictable trends, in association with changes in our technological and social environments. At a simpler level, the regularities of human behavior are obvious in the fairly constant annual numbers of suicides and divorces (although these also show systematic trends). If humans did not, generally, behave in fairly predictable ways, not only social scientists but also insurance companies would have gone out of business long ago. Any particular individual may make any particular choice, but if we know the social composition of a group, we can predict, in general, what it will do. Thus, on the average, most large owners of stock will vote in favor of preferential tax rates for capital gains; most farmers will favor laws that they believe to be in the interest of farmers109

As a rule, a capitalist will tend to maximize his profit irrespective of the social repercussions. A bourgeois intellectual will tend to develop theoretical justifications for the continuation of capitalism, often in spite of the glaring social contradictions.

Within what Marx would call a bourgeois standpoint, that is to say, even while continuing to support the bourgeoisie as the class most suited to lead humanity economically, politically, and otherwise, it is possible for certain members of this class to develop a keen understanding of the social contradictions produced by class society and in some cases, even a real commitment to human development or to the eradication of such ills as global poverty or unfolding ecological destruction.

I don’t place optimism on average that people will merely find their way out, they need the tools of course but as mentioned earlier there isn’t yet enough free discussion. Many useful contribution by heterodox economists are still marginalized because they’re defined against a mainstream which mostly plays with itself.
I have my own personal reasons that I respect these institutions.

I would point out that most economists don't really make tons of money or gain fame. It's the same for them as most other academic disciplines, they do it because they love it, because they have a drive for truth and have inherited those values and those values are reinforced by those institutions.

Maybe those institutions need changing maybe they dont, but I have a fundamental attitude that if people struggle for what they value they can get there eventually. Otherwise why even bother trying if you don't believe it?

And good luck to them, i need not posit nefarious motivations for them to be inadequate to the task of displacing the mainstream. Many with good intentions are readily subdued by systems of power before them. Indeed people can struggle, this I agree with, it’s just that things are at a weak point right now even though it’s quite clear that in our western nations/economies things are going to shit but instead right wingers are galvanized, any left is yet to find its feet and stand firmly. Only baby steps are being taken thus far. But in regards to the institutions themselves, I surely ain’t expecting some en masse of heterodox influence, this should’ve happened years ago.
Anything can change, but what it takes to change such a thing is the issue, I would think that what is mainstream was dealt a significant blow years ago when they failed to predict the GFC. But somehow its going on, even the washington consensusisn’t slowed down that much in that the criticisms fall by the wayside in that they end up essentially accepting the presuppositions of capitalism.
Stuck with a lot of people whose most radical response to the issues of capitalism is to end up in terms of reformist like the utopian socialists. Basically, good intentions, haven’t spent time to understand capitalism in terms of what is, only to posit what ought to be in relation to bits and pieces.
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