The Great Depression 2 ? - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By jimjam
#15080701
“I feel like the 2008 financial crisis was just a dry run for this,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a Harvard economist and co-author of a history of financial crises, “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.”

“This is already shaping up as the deepest dive on record for the global economy for over 100 years,” he said. “Everything depends on how long it lasts, but if this goes on for a long time, it’s certainly going to be the mother of all financial crises.”

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#15080709
I disagree, and it's a great time to buy stock and negotiate great deals on cars and guitars.

The reason I say this that many working professionals are still working, and making good money. Same for a lot of businesses. They will be ready to hire back all the people that are fired.

Don't get me wrong, there will be a downturn, but I think we will recover from it relatively quickly.
#15080731
fokker wrote:There will be famines in the overpopulated 3rd world countries, while we will be able to afford buying their food ...


I somehow believe 3rd world countries would be OK because they had been shit anyways so the people probably weren't affected that much (except for, say, those miners in South Africa?)

The same cannot be said for 1st world countries though.
#15080735
Patrickov wrote:I somehow believe 3rd world countries would be OK because they had been shit anyways so the people probably weren't affected that much (except for, say, those miners in South Africa?)

The same cannot be said for 1st world countries though.


Actually the global south is very much negatively affected by subsidized food production in wealthy economies.
#15080737
@Rancid the problem I think of the future? Is that global warming is going to play havoc with global temps, and it might unleash a lot of CoVid-19's. They are talking about another one that might strike in the fall. This is a way that nature has to a certain extent of culling the herd. And human civilization is fragile Rancid. Puerto Rico lost water pumps for a year and electricity and cell phone access and basically was thrown into third world status and martial law. That can happen at any time. Thinking that everything will go back to normal after a bunch of businesses are basically in free fall due to not having customers and people being unemployed for months. Some estimates are talking 32% unemployment in the USA. PR was at nearly 80%. Once you hit those big numbers mass migration is not far away. People too poor or without connections won't be able to pay for water, food, electricity. It is ironic that the stupid Donald Trump administration kept hating on socialism due to the 'nanny state'giving people free things? Is now realizing that without people working regular low paying jobs, and without trade and consumption of those same people on a mass scale?There is no economy worth saving. Socialism is what keeps people from dying unattended in hospitals, kids from never learning to do their foundational skills in school, keeps the roads intact, the law enforcement happening, the x and the y. The state is more important than profits for big monopolies and banks and so on....if you don't care about workers and people's health? There is no economy.

But, you got the brainwashed thinking that society doesn't exist. That we are not part of a connected whole. All of us are a connected whole. Corona Virus brought this truth home. Everyone touching groceries, touching surfaces, kissing, talking, hugging and needing to be with others. We are social beings. Isolation is damn hard for two weeks, three months, six months, etc. Solitary confinement is a cruel and unusual punishment for prisons to use because our human nature is CONTACT. Not isolation. Use a political and economic system that deals with the strengths of the group to make wealth happen, economic prosperity happen. That is what needs to happen.

No more bullshit about selfishness is human nature. Because if everyone were selfish only? No need to stay home. Your bullshit is the only one that counts and if everyone else you come into contact with dies? Who gives a damn. It is all about ME. Those people who love that rapacious nasty style of thought love capitalism. They need to not be allowed to rule ever. Someone told that Trump fool prez 45 that if he continues to lie his ass off about how many people might die and it is all ok....the USA is better than China and Italy? That he is going to have dire and severe consequences in November. New York is the epicenter of this virus. Donald's home state. He needs to stop his childish rantings and stupid proclamations and start acting like a leader....of a nation in severe crisis. If he doesn't? Let the people who know better do it for him.

The Great Depression needs a lot of nation's cooperating across international borders to control this problem. If we can cooperate well as one? With unity? We can solve a whole lot of problems. Including environmental disasters. If we continue to be selfish and petty? We are going down. That is the reality.
#15080742
Donna wrote:Actually the global south is very much negatively affected by subsidized food production in wealthy economies.


Point probably missed.

What I mean is those already suffering would be, at worst, still suffering. People there would adapt better.

But for those better-off, this can make them experience the suffering in the scale of those worse-off, and they would probably handle it so badly that those places would be where the mass deaths and despair happen.
#15080744
Patrickov wrote:Point probably missed.

What I mean is those already suffering would be, at worst, still suffering. People there would adapt better.

But for those better-off, this can make them experience the suffering in the scale of those worse-off, and they would probably handle it so badly that those places would be where the mass deaths and despair happen.


What a stupid take.
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By Donna
#15080749
Patrickov wrote:Well, I thought having a low opinion of first world (capitalist) countries is of socialists' taste?


Taste?
#15080759
Rancid wrote:I disagree, and it's a great time to buy stock and negotiate great deals on cars and guitars.

I agree. It's not born of a financial crisis, but of a pandemic.

Rancid wrote:The reason I say this that many working professionals are still working, and making good money.

Right. Our company has no plans to lay anyone off. Although they will slow or freeze hiring generally, but will accelerate in certain areas like where I'm working.

Patrickov wrote:I threw one of the said stock away despite holding it for almost two decades.

I haven't bought any financials yet. I've done well in food stocks. I'm up well over 100% in PFGC. I'm up over 50% in WEN. I expect these to pull back a bit as we retest the lows.

Patrickov wrote:I somehow believe 3rd world countries would be OK because they had been shit anyways so the people probably weren't affected that much (except for, say, those miners in South Africa?)

I think this is going to split along high population density and age/health lines. Rural areas won't be as hard hit. Urban areas will be worst affected.

Tainari88 wrote:@Rancid the problem I think of the future? Is that global warming is going to play havoc with global temps, and it might unleash a lot of CoVid-19's. They are talking about another one that might strike in the fall. This is a way that nature has to a certain extent of culling the herd.

If it's happening on a time-table, it's probably directed and not random.

Tainari88 wrote:Some estimates are talking 32% unemployment in the USA. PR was at nearly 80%. Once you hit those big numbers mass migration is not far away.

Why migrate to a place with 32% unemployment?

Tainari88 wrote:It is ironic that the stupid Donald Trump administration kept hating on socialism due to the 'nanny state'giving people free things?

There isn't political will for socialism. One thing an unemployed restaurant worker would probably not want right now is ownership of a restaurant. For your type of socialism to insulate people, it pretty much has to be collectivism, which has a long history of authoritarianism and famine.

The irony is that this fiasco was caused by a country ruled by a communist party. Why does this fact always seem to escape people pushing socialism?
#15080767
blackjack21 wrote:
The irony is that this fiasco was caused by a country ruled by a communist party. Why does this fact always seem to escape people pushing socialism?



You ever wonder what communist means? Because China doesn't look much like Soviet Russia or what Marx was talking about.

China also lacks the robust social safety net that characterises a modern socialist country.

If you're using the old mean of socialist, China doesn't fit that, either.

So, basically, you didn't say anything. Which didn't escape anyone.
#15080777
late wrote:You ever wonder what communist means? Because China doesn't look much like Soviet Russia or what Marx was talking about.

China also lacks the robust social safety net that characterises a modern socialist country.

If you're using the old mean of socialist, China doesn't fit that, either.

So, basically, you didn't say anything. Which didn't escape anyone.



Frankly I see his accusation more directed against the kinds of, say, Member skinster, because their perceptions of socialism seem closer to what he describes.

I am pretty sure other socialists are not what his words are directed for so it is safe for them to ignore that part.
#15080795
blackjack21 wrote:I agree. It's not born of a financial crisis, but of a pandemic.


Right. Our company has no plans to lay anyone off. Although they will slow or freeze hiring generally, but will accelerate in certain areas like where I'm working.


I haven't bought any financials yet. I've done well in food stocks. I'm up well over 100% in PFGC. I'm up to over 50% in WEN. I expect these to pull back a bit as we retest the lows.


I think this is going to split along high population density and age/health lines. Rural areas won't be as hard hit. Urban areas will be worst affected.


If it's happening on a time-table, it's probably directed and not random.


Why migrate to a place with 32% unemployment?


There isn't a political will for socialism. One thing an unemployed restaurant worker would probably not want right now is ownership of a restaurant. For your type of socialism to insulate people, it pretty much has to be collectivism, which has a long history of authoritarianism and famine.

The irony is that this fiasco was caused by a country ruled by a communist party. Why does this fact always seem to escape people pushing socialism?


No, BJ, I am talking about people having to leave for other areas looking for fewer unemployment problems. Do you think Puerto Ricans left because everything was great in PR? If the USA has a lack of jobs en masse? People are going to twiddle their thumbs and hang around waiting for better opportunities? They won't BJ. They will leave. Californians left to Colorado in large numbers when your state had financial problems. That is the migration I am talking about.

About the Commies spreading the virus? You should know better BJ as the son of a doctor you should know better than to blame the Chinese or the Communists for a pandemic. Pandemics can come out of any continent. Some doctors in South Korea said that it came from a bat that jumped to a livestock animal and then to humans. If we extrapolated people should stop eating meat and would have fewer possibilities of dealing with animal-borne viruses. Don't use the originating nation or its political platform as creating the problem. Socialism is a better system in these situations because being into rugged individualism and all that implies in these types of issues? It is inhumane. That is my point.

I have hope for you Relampaguito, but trying to like a man who is thinking about profiting from tragedy is very very difficult for me.
#15080796
Tainari88 wrote: a man who is thinking about profiting from tragedy


rich folks are buying medical stocks in large quantities.
#15080797
jimjam wrote:rich folks are buying medical stocks in large quantities.


This is precisely why whenever a crisis comes and passes, and you re-evaluate the situation. The rich come out better than ever, and the poor come out worse than ever. It happened in 2008, and it's going to happen again here.

At some point, somethings gotta give though, no?
#15080926
Rancid wrote:This is precisely why whenever a crisis comes and passes, and you re-evaluate the situation. The rich come out better than ever, and the poor come out worse than ever. It happened in 2008, and it's going to happen again here.

At some point, somethings gotta give though, no?



Well, that is the worry. See, the rich don’t always do well out of crisis. Consider historical examples such as the Red revolution in Russia, 1918, or the liberal revolution in France, 1789. The rich didn’t so particularly well out of that. In fact, most of them suffered execution in one form or another.

There are other historical examples, but my personal favourite, which I would like to bring to your attention, is the collapse of the Mediterranean Bronze Age civilisation around 1300BC. This was the time of the Trojan wars and the New Kingdom Egyptians.

The archeological record has cities which show the city centre government buildings having been destroyed at the time of the collapse, but the surrounding residences being relatively intact. This subjects revolt by the proletariat rather than sacking due to invasion. The Sea People’s were likely displaced commoners ravaging the countryside rather than marauding Barbarians, as was originally thought.

Was the Bronze Age collapse the first commie revolt? @Donna ?

The following era wears a dark age, which saw a loss of high culture and an interruption to the transmission of abstract learning. It also saw a long period of population decline, move to smaller, defended settlements and general lose of cultural complexity. Population decline like that would mean a high death rate than birth rate. Try to imagine how that would be for the people of the time living through it.

But after a few centuries, cultural complexity began to recover as some settlements grew in size, were then able to collect a greater economic surplus and so fund armies of suffice to size to subjugate their neighbours, thus creating new empires. This recreated the greater economic efficiencies that allow substantial increases in cultural complexity and, hey presto, we are back to a civilised age again. This time the age of the Persians and the Greeks. The classical world that would be dominated by the Romans until it too collapsed in its turn, giving way to a new dark age.

That dark age would gradually resolve into the Middle Ages, then the renaissance and the age of modernity, the last 500 years of civilisation. But nothing lasts forever. What is must pass and return to the earth once more. Ashes to ashes, dust to dust.

Well, let us classify that as the worst case scenario. :)
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