[Puffer Fish]

Amsterdam is an example of an open, wealthy city, that takes immigrants from all different places in the world.
So what have been the results?
Rent prices and costs of housing have gone through the roof.

What to do about rising rents? | DW Documentary, DW Documentary, June 11, 2019

The Netherlands has the highest population density of any nation-sized country in Europe (not counting the tiny ones).

The excess of people and lack of enough space for everyone who wants to live there has made the housing market very competitive and driven prices up.
Young people are finding they cannot afford to move out from their parents. The availability of affordable housing has pretty much disappeared on the open market.
Even middle class people are struggling to afford housing and finding they are being priced out of the market.

It's not just the city of Amsterdam itself, it's all of the surrounding area.

The Netherlands supplies more subsidized housing than any other country in Europe, but there just are not enough for all the people who want them. There are very long wait lists.
In the video, someone is quoted as saying that there are many people who earn too much to qualify for subsidized housing but not enough to afford an apartment.

I wonder, how long will the Netherlands be able to remain "open and tolerant" ?

[libertasbella]

Until everyone who could rally against government intervention in the housing market is dependent on the government for housing. Or homeless, in which case they'll be too cold and hungry to pose much of a threat.

[Pants-of-dog]

@Puffer Fish

Is there any evidence showing a link between immigration and high housing costs?

[Puffer Fish]

@Puffer Fish

Is there any evidence showing a link between immigration and high housing costs?

What do you even mean by that?

Obviously if you add lots more people, it's going to change the balance of supply and demand in the housing market. When there are shortages of something, prices go up. Basic economics.

Rather than waste my time, why don't you tell me exactly what type of evidence you are asking for?

Do you mean evidence that Amsterdam has seen large amounts of immigration from foreign parts of the world over last 2 decades and that the population has gone up?
That would be easy enough to provide.

[Potemkin]

Dutch people being made homeless...?

[Pants-of-dog]

What do you even mean by that?

Obviously if you add lots more people, it's going to change the balance of supply and demand in the housing market. When there are shortages of something, prices go up. Basic economics.

Yes, I understand the hypothesis. You are assuming that supply is lagging behind demand.

Rather than waste my time, why don't you tell me exactly what type of evidence you are asking for?

Do you mean evidence that Amsterdam has seen large amounts of immigration from foreign parts of the world over last 2 decades and that the population has gone up?
That would be easy enough to provide.

A study or news article that describes the actual causal chain and shows verifiable facts that support the causal chain described.

[Robert Urbanek]

The video cited three causes of the shortage: tourist demand for housing, British businesses setting up shop in the city because of BREXIT, and investors who are buying up property and reselling it to the rich.

Perhaps part of the solution would be regulations to prevent investors from hoarding and speculating on large portions of residential housing stock.

[Puffer Fish]

The video cited three causes of the shortage: tourist demand for housing, British businesses setting up shop in the city because of BREXIT, and investors who are buying up property and reselling it to the rich.

Perhaps part of the solution would be regulations to prevent investors from hoarding and speculating on large portions of residential housing stock.

If you watched the video, it says that the Netherlands has already passed a law requiring homebuyers to live in the home for at least 5 years after buying it.
The law was intended to help prevent speculators. This has still not solved the overall housing problem.


I suspect the educated people are just refusing to see the elephant in the room, because they don't want to see it.
Even suggesting that immigration could be the source of these problems would be a taboo topic, in most circles of Dutch society right now. Look at what happened to politician Geert Wilders.

[Puffer Fish]

A study or news article that describes the actual causal chain and shows verifiable facts that support the causal chain described.

Oh, so you only trust the media to do your logic for you?

Most of the mainstream media would not dare touch this. So people like you will just be kept in the dark, I guess.
Same thing with almost all academic studies. And this would be especially true in a country like the Netherlands. Someone who did put out such a study and put their name on it would be jeopardizing their academic career.

You know, I probably could find some news article that says this, but you would probably dismiss it as "far Right" and "unreliable".


Question: Why do you need the media to tell you there's a connection between A and B ?
Even if the media does say that, it will most likely be their opinion. Their interpretation of the facts.

Can't we use a little bit of common sense on our own?

I mean, I can give you statistics and numbers, I have no problem doing that, but at the end of the day, you're going to have to draw your own conclusions from those numbers.


I posted this in the Economics section, because Economics does not always have a clear connection between A and B.
Sometimes we just have to infer that there may likely be a connection. And argue about the economics and the numbers.
(Example: You can't really "prove" or "disprove" that higher taxes were the cause of lower economic growth, in a particular situation)


If we rely solely on the media for our interpretations of the facts and opinions, then we will be at the complete whim of any widespread media bias that might exist out there.
That is something to consider.

[AFAIK]

How do we know immigrants are responsible for increasing demand? Where are you sure demand from tourists isn't a factor despite all the complaints we hear about air bnb?

Personally I blame tourists and will refuse any request to back up this assertion by providing a simple link to a news articles as such "evidence" is beneath me.

[ThirdTerm]

Pants-of-dog wrote:
A study or news article that describes the actual causal chain and shows verifiable facts that support the causal chain described.

This Dutch article is the accurate one to explain the situation well. The increasing number of "expats" in the city is blamed for rising rents. They are mostly rich foreign nationals from Britain and America who work for multinational companies. In addition to British bankers, American insurers and Japanese technicians, cheap workers from the former Eastern bloc are recently added to the group of foreigners. The multinationals may want to leave London for Amsterdam due to 'Brexit' and the municipality is welcoming the trend because it benefits the local economy. However, some Amsterdammers complain about the presence of too many Americans in the city.

The number of expats in the city has skyrocketed in recent years. And in addition to rising rents, this sometimes also causes nuisance.

Priceless rental homes, screaming Americans in the garden and heaps of bulky waste on the sidewalk. The accusing finger quickly goes to Airbnb tourists, but the scenes here and there also belong to a group that does not return home after a few days: expats. They have more money to spend than the Dutch and are not familiar with all the (unwritten) rules.

The number of expats in the city is growing rapidly, even though it is difficult to define the group in detail. The municipality itself uses figures from the tax authorities on 'economically active international employees'. That group - which includes, in addition to British bankers, American insurers and Japanese technicians, cheap workers from the former Eastern bloc - has doubled in a few years. While there were 39,000 in 2009, in 2015 the counter was 77,400. In the metropolitan region it went from 84,500 to 144,800.

Expats are interesting because they pay more. Sometimes a company rents or buys the housing for its employees, but often the expats receive compensation from their employer. 'I just drove around with a woman from an international company who earns more than a hundred thousand euros, then 1600 or 1700 euros in rent is not very much. And they all have the 30 percent rule, 'says Küçük. Expats pay less tax than the Dutch. 'If they earn 4000 euros gross, they will be left with more than we would earn. In any case, their salaries are higher than an average income.'

American accent
And then there are the cultural differences. Amsterdammers who share their backyard with several expat households soon notice that Americans, for example, make much more intensive use of their garden. They hold massive barbecues with several families or talk out loud on their balconies until late at night. It is remarkable that the conversations laced with 'like, like' and 'you know' are much more prominent than those of the Dutch neighbors.

Brexit
Küçük hopes for many more expats. The municipality is lobbying a lot to get large foreign companies to the city. For example, the multinationals that want to leave London due to 'Brexit'. Just like the European Medicines Agency, which has to find a new accommodation and takes 900 employees. Kajsa Ollongren, now the boss in the city, told Het Parool earlier this month that she wants to offer space to all groups. Also expats. 'I don't want to choose between groups and I'm not going to tell expats that they are no longer allowed to live here. It is good for the economy if companies come to Amsterdam.'

https://www.at5.nl/artikelen/173572/exp ... -euro-huur

[Puffer Fish]

How do we know immigrants are responsible for increasing demand? Where are you sure demand from tourists isn't a factor despite all the complaints we hear about air bnb?

Here's one site that shows tourism in the Netherlands has gone up 40% between 2000 and 2014.

It's still sort of difficult to imagine tourism can be the main driver in all of this.


In 2018, there were 19 million tourists in Amsterdam, and tourists to Amsterdam have an average stay of 4.52 days.
(sources: https://www.statista.com/topics/6025/to ... d%20German. and https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/81847372.pdf

Amsterdam population in 2018 was 854,047.

Adjusting
854,047 x 365 = 311,727,155
19,000,000 x 4.52 = 85,880,000

85,880,000 divided by 311,727,155 = 27.5 percent

Means that tourists only represent 27.5 percent the size of the permanent population in the city, on any give day.

[Skynet]

The video cited three causes of the shortage: tourist demand for housing, British businesses setting up shop in the city because of BREXIT, and investors who are buying up property and reselling it to the rich.

Perhaps part of the solution would be regulations to prevent investors from hoarding and speculating on large portions of residential housing stock.

The market will find a solution, more densitiy like skyscrapers, whereas regulation stalls investment. Germany made a law "rental fee brake", this halted the investment in real estate.

Most people have realestate, they get richer. The house of my father lost 50% in value, because people leave Bosnia to work in Germany.

[Puffer Fish]

The market will find a solution, more density like skyscrapers, whereas regulation prevents investment.

Buildings that are taller than 2 levels get exponentially more expensive to build.
It does partially have to do with additional building code regulations on these buildings, but also the fact 3 level buildings take substantially more structural reinforcement.

The cost of a small condo in a 4 level high building is probably going to be the same as a small to medium sized house, if price of land is not considered.

Higher buildings could also obstruct views and block more sunlight. Some people would complain they would be a blight on the city.

[Skynet]

Buildings that are taller than 2 levels get exponentially more expensive to build.
It does partially have to do with additional building code regulations on these buildings, but also the fact 3 level buildings take substantially more structural reinforcement.

The cost of a small condo in a 4 level high building is probably going to be the same as a small to medium sized house, if price of land is not considered.

Netherlands are flat there is enough space to build




this buildings are cheap, in socialist countries they were build

[Puffer Fish]

Netherlands are flat there is enough space to build

this buildings are cheap

Just something to point out: American-style diversity and large apartment blocks typically do not work out too well.

People do not want to be living in that close proximity, literally on top of each other. There are noise and crime problems.
Troublesome children left to roam loose, causing problems.

Europe does not really have much experience with this so far.

Look at the American experience. In places where large apartment blocks have been tried in the past, they've turned into ghettos, crime, the middle class does not want to live there. Things have fallen apart.

The only exception is in highly gentrified places where poorer people can't afford to live in the building.

[Skynet]

Just something to point out: American-style diversity and large apartment blocks typically do not work out too well.

People do not want to be living in that close proximity, literally on top of each other. There are noise and crime problems.
Troublesome children left to roam loose, causing problems.

Europe does not really have much experience with this so far.

Look at the American experience. In places where large apartment blocks have been tried in the past, they've turned into ghettos, crime, the middle class does not want to live there. Things have fallen apart.

The only exception is in highly gentrified places where poorer people can't afford to live in the building.

You are right! Therefore Erdogan let just build 3 levels, so you know your neighbours, in bigger appartment blocks there is no contact between neighbours.

[Pants-of-dog]

Oh, so you only trust the media to do your logic for you?

Most of the mainstream media would not dare touch this. So people like you will just be kept in the dark, I guess.
Same thing with almost all academic studies. And this would be especially true in a country like the Netherlands. Someone who did put out such a study and put their name on it would be jeopardizing their academic career.

You know, I probably could find some news article that says this, but you would probably dismiss it as "far Right" and "unreliable".


Question: Why do you need the media to tell you there's a connection between A and B ?
Even if the media does say that, it will most likely be their opinion. Their interpretation of the facts.

Can't we use a little bit of common sense on our own?

Sure, Go ahead.

One way you could show that immigration causes higher housing costs is by showing that housing costs went up sharply right after immigration started.

[Puffer Fish]

Sure, Go ahead.

One way you could show that immigration causes higher housing costs is by showing that housing costs went up sharply right after immigration started.

How about this?

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/dutchstudies/an/S ... s_imm.html

https://www.statista.com/statistics/577 ... therlands/


Additional housing price statistics stretching back from 1975-2013
https://dobododo.wordpress.com/2013/07/ ... the-1970s/

[Puffer Fish]

It seems to me the statistics seem to be consistent with or support the hypothesis.

Housing prices really started accelerating around 1996, and that is around the same time immigration levels began accelerating.


Of course, it could also very well be possible the causation could be the reverse - higher housing prices might have been the factor that brought in more immigration, as lower-earning Dutch families began to be priced out of Amsterdam by the higher rents, creating a vacuum. Since immigrant families often are willing to crowd many people into a small living space and have several income earners per home. And are also generally willing to pay a larger percent of their income towards rent, since the financial situation is still better than the countries where they come from.