- 10 Feb 2023 07:43
#15264419
Neo-liberalism took over in 1981 with Reagan being President. Clinton came on board, and it has held sway ever since. Now even the MSM refuses to give alternate economic theories a fair hearing.
. . A key assumption of neo-liberalism was/is trickle down economics, which is the idea that giving more income to the rich will let/cause them to share it with the masses. It is obvious that this has not happened.
. . QE was a way for the Fed to pump money into the economy, but it could only go to the rich. The system doesn't let the Fed give money to the masses. The rich used the QE money to bid up the prices of real estate and corp stock. The US has seen huge bubbles in these 2 parts of the economy. Meanwhile, real wages have been flat or even falling if a more accurate CPI had been used.
MMT is 1st and foremost a way or a lens to see how the economy really works.
. . It is not based on false assumptions. It sees as true [for "fiat nations" that have their own fiat currency, and that float that currency, and have little debt in any other currency] => no fiat Gov. can run out of money [they issue/create it at will], the size of the Gov. deficit should not be the target, the target should be a good economy, a good economy has full employment and low inflation, bond sales by non EU nations are optional, bonds are a guaranteed income program for the rich, the nation's central bank can always control the interest rate that it pays on the bonds it sells, and fiat nations can always buy any real thing and all labor that is for sale in its currency.
. . MMT sees as false => the Gov. of fiat nations needs to get money to spend by taxing or borrowing it away from someone who has money, fiat nations can be unable to pay their debts, banks lend their depositors' money [so Gov. bond sales are not competing with corp. borrowers for money, and so Gov. bond sales don't crowd out money for corp. investment], the Phillips curve means that low unemployment must lead to high inflation, giving after tax income to the rich will always result in the rich spending it so that the masses benefit [this could happen, but it never has], that a nation must rely on corps to make all the investments needed to control inflation when there is full employment [the Gov. can build factories itself if the rich go on an "investment strike"], that the current US Market is close to the "Perfect Market" (which is defined as a Market with no players with monopoly pricing power) [so the part of the econ. theory that deals with a perfect market has no business being applied to the current US economy/market], and that it is even possible to define just what the NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) level is at any time,
So, some conclusions that MMT draws from all the above and other additional parts of MMT are =>
1] There is no fixed debt to GDP ratio that is going to be a problem. You see in 2008 GFC, nations in the EU saw their tax revenues and GDP fall as their spending increased. Therefore, their tax revenues minus spending = deficits increased which increased their total debt. At the same time as their GDP was falling. Therefore, the ratio increased, because both the debt =numerator was increasing and their GDP = denominator was decreasing. This didn't really reflect any real problem in the economy. It was just a number. Today the ratio for Japan is almost 300% and Japan still is having no problems except that the yen has fallen, but it may have stabilized. However, in the EU & EZ this caused a crisis. Nations like Ireland that had been doing fine suddenly had that ratio too high. Because Ireland doesn't issue the euro it had to pay high interest rates to borrow to cover the deficit. In the end and ever since the ECB stepped in and has been buying the bonds of nations so they can sell bonds at a reasonable interest rate. This is a violation of the official rules. MMTers predicted this would happen during the 1st crisis in about 2001.
2] Neo-liberalism is worried about Gov. deb and Gov. deficits. It is NOT worried about private debt levels anywhere near as much. So MS econ didn't see the GFC/2008 coming, while MMTers did see it coming. MMTers see that Gov. debt is not really a debt, because it can be paid at will and also, because it is a fact that having a Gov. surplus that totals $25 trillion spread out over even 100 years would cause the US economy to crash after the 1st few trillion had been taxed away and paid to some bond holders. The crash would end the surplus, but if it continued, the depression would get worse every year, until the Gov. reversed course and spent like crazy. This is the lesion of the early Great Depression. Hoover, kept his surplus going and then FDR started the huge deficit spending that helped a lot. I and anyone with a brain can see that since WWII spending ended the depression in 1940, that it could have been ended by the end of 1936 if WWII spending levels had been spent starting in 1933.
3] After WWII the huge US national debt was not reduced in any decade, i.e. at the end of any decade the total debt was lager than at its start. The graphs you see are of debt/GDP vs time, not debt vs time. The huge growing US national debt didn't hurt the US economy until at least 1971. And even then it is hard to prove that it had any effect. Many assert it, but none prove it.
.
. . A key assumption of neo-liberalism was/is trickle down economics, which is the idea that giving more income to the rich will let/cause them to share it with the masses. It is obvious that this has not happened.
. . QE was a way for the Fed to pump money into the economy, but it could only go to the rich. The system doesn't let the Fed give money to the masses. The rich used the QE money to bid up the prices of real estate and corp stock. The US has seen huge bubbles in these 2 parts of the economy. Meanwhile, real wages have been flat or even falling if a more accurate CPI had been used.
MMT is 1st and foremost a way or a lens to see how the economy really works.
. . It is not based on false assumptions. It sees as true [for "fiat nations" that have their own fiat currency, and that float that currency, and have little debt in any other currency] => no fiat Gov. can run out of money [they issue/create it at will], the size of the Gov. deficit should not be the target, the target should be a good economy, a good economy has full employment and low inflation, bond sales by non EU nations are optional, bonds are a guaranteed income program for the rich, the nation's central bank can always control the interest rate that it pays on the bonds it sells, and fiat nations can always buy any real thing and all labor that is for sale in its currency.
. . MMT sees as false => the Gov. of fiat nations needs to get money to spend by taxing or borrowing it away from someone who has money, fiat nations can be unable to pay their debts, banks lend their depositors' money [so Gov. bond sales are not competing with corp. borrowers for money, and so Gov. bond sales don't crowd out money for corp. investment], the Phillips curve means that low unemployment must lead to high inflation, giving after tax income to the rich will always result in the rich spending it so that the masses benefit [this could happen, but it never has], that a nation must rely on corps to make all the investments needed to control inflation when there is full employment [the Gov. can build factories itself if the rich go on an "investment strike"], that the current US Market is close to the "Perfect Market" (which is defined as a Market with no players with monopoly pricing power) [so the part of the econ. theory that deals with a perfect market has no business being applied to the current US economy/market], and that it is even possible to define just what the NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) level is at any time,
So, some conclusions that MMT draws from all the above and other additional parts of MMT are =>
1] There is no fixed debt to GDP ratio that is going to be a problem. You see in 2008 GFC, nations in the EU saw their tax revenues and GDP fall as their spending increased. Therefore, their tax revenues minus spending = deficits increased which increased their total debt. At the same time as their GDP was falling. Therefore, the ratio increased, because both the debt =numerator was increasing and their GDP = denominator was decreasing. This didn't really reflect any real problem in the economy. It was just a number. Today the ratio for Japan is almost 300% and Japan still is having no problems except that the yen has fallen, but it may have stabilized. However, in the EU & EZ this caused a crisis. Nations like Ireland that had been doing fine suddenly had that ratio too high. Because Ireland doesn't issue the euro it had to pay high interest rates to borrow to cover the deficit. In the end and ever since the ECB stepped in and has been buying the bonds of nations so they can sell bonds at a reasonable interest rate. This is a violation of the official rules. MMTers predicted this would happen during the 1st crisis in about 2001.
2] Neo-liberalism is worried about Gov. deb and Gov. deficits. It is NOT worried about private debt levels anywhere near as much. So MS econ didn't see the GFC/2008 coming, while MMTers did see it coming. MMTers see that Gov. debt is not really a debt, because it can be paid at will and also, because it is a fact that having a Gov. surplus that totals $25 trillion spread out over even 100 years would cause the US economy to crash after the 1st few trillion had been taxed away and paid to some bond holders. The crash would end the surplus, but if it continued, the depression would get worse every year, until the Gov. reversed course and spent like crazy. This is the lesion of the early Great Depression. Hoover, kept his surplus going and then FDR started the huge deficit spending that helped a lot. I and anyone with a brain can see that since WWII spending ended the depression in 1940, that it could have been ended by the end of 1936 if WWII spending levels had been spent starting in 1933.
3] After WWII the huge US national debt was not reduced in any decade, i.e. at the end of any decade the total debt was lager than at its start. The graphs you see are of debt/GDP vs time, not debt vs time. The huge growing US national debt didn't hurt the US economy until at least 1971. And even then it is hard to prove that it had any effect. Many assert it, but none prove it.
.