[kami321]

What If Russian Federation was to start rapidly recovering its economy at a fast rate (like in China) in near future? Could/would that lead to a new cold war?

One one hand, it seems like all major ideological disagreements have been solved, so there shouldn't be any reason for conflict, on the other hand, as we all know, countries with similar ideologies are able to compete, hate, and even fight directly against one another as well; and they did so many times throughout history. Russia and USA are still able to hate one another, as we can see from recent developments, plus, if you remember the 1948 Dawes Plan called not only for elimination of communism, but also for minimization of Moscow's influence as a separate objective.
If RF and USA decide to seriously compete against one another, the mass media on both sides will find plenty of arguments for hate and the ordinary people will follow. The real incentive for competition will be simple imperialist world suprmeacy, and nothing else really.

Also it has to be noted that one of the side-effects of globalization is peace and friendly relations. Both Russia and China might have become simply too entrenched in the world market and transnational corporate agreements. Cutting links with foreign markets will hurt both East and West a lot, hence it is questionable whether either side would risk worsening the realtions to that point. Just imagine what would happen if China and US started embargoing each other.
On the other hand, it can be done. If Russian economy becomes strong enough (about the size of India at least), it might then become possible for RF and PRC to start limiting their market activities in pro-western countries and focusing only on the markets in the "Axis of Evil" bloc and neutral countries like India. It will still hurt, no doubt, but the West will be hurt as well.



So, if (and only if) Russian economy really starts catching up to the level of the developed western European countries, it seems possible to me that a new Cold War could start with RF and PRC on one side, while US, EU and Japan on the other. Indian politics will also be crucial, but it is unclear so far which side it would join if such conflict was to occur. Russia would then join Axis of Evil's efforts and together with China start funding the rebels in Iraq and Afghanistan with arms and modern technologies, and then the US position in the Middle East will be seriously screwed.

How possible is this?

[Kiroff]

What If Russian Federation was to start rapidly recovering its economy at a fast rate (like in China) in near future? Could/would that lead to a new cold war?

Let's lock this as the premise and not argue that it won't(for people who love to. I was going to argue this too when I first saw it).

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Then it's pretty possible. Once the political situation would stabilize in RF, and the economical situation would strengthen it would probably be able to make an argument against the US.

I'll begin with the development of anti-Americanism in Russia. Of course, in the early 90's USSR and later Russia was best buds with the US. Of course that all ended with the integration of Eastern Europe into NATO, and its culmination with the second war in Yugoslavia which was the event that made the Russian populace more hostile to the US than probably any other single event in history. Hell, that was the origin of the derogatory term "pindOs." It was the first time that people massively protested outside the US embassy not told to do so by the Party, or any real source above. People just came becuase they felt betrayed by what seemed to be an ally. That was the point when Russian anti-Americanism began. Of course Putin's friendship with Bush helped ease that a bit, and no one protested the American war in Afganistan(though people saw 9/11 as justice on the victim), during the Iraq war there was anti-Americanism beyond just Zhirinovsky's drunk speech live from Baghdad. Today most people resent the US for talking about Russia's problems with democracy, and the short string of (3) velvet revolutions, in the last of which Russia took the initiative. That's why Kasparov's visit to the White House is seen as political suicide. He simply followed the footsteps of Nevzlin, who the government used to examplify an oligarch - a murderer that flees to Washington to talk with pals that think they can sort it all out.

In the future, the government will probably take more initiative to use the developed feelings of anti-Americanism in the populace to achieve their goals. However, the alliance with China still doesn't look perspective. Chinese immigrants still threaten Siberia. Of course Stalin somehow figured it out, as PRC asked the USSR in the 1960's to begin thermonuclear war against the West while the CPSU really wanted to simoultaneously dissolve the Warsaw Pact and NATO. As for strongholds of Americanism in East Asia such as Japan and South Korea, while there are definite tensions with Japan, South Korea is all but an ally(Russia's economic partnership with SK is one of the strongest partnerships Russia has with countries outside of the CIS). Of course an end of that relationship would require Russia to develop technolodies for production of high technology, as everything else will not be price effective(right now most Russian hi-tech is developed in Russia but manifactured in South Korea).

Economically, there is the WTO which Russia will soon join, and China is a member of. I doubt that the two countries, both geared for export would want to stop that. That would rid the WTO of meaning. Cutting that link would create a situation that didn't exist even during the USSR. Oil and gas prices would skyrocket, and only create a new sphere of influence - the Middle East. Strengthened, it would be an uncontrollable entity with its own policies. And no one wants that. Of course, Iran's alliance with Russia and China would ease it, but then there's Saudi Arabia. Of course, Russia can make all the possible weapons to defeat it, but then it's an issue of price.

Of course there are other issues. Would EurAsEC merge into a single country and would SCO become THE counter to NATO? If it does, Russia gets a population of about 230 million, 150 million of them Russian.

Sorry, I might have gotten off track. But yeah, if Russia's economy strengthens it could definitely happen, as Russia is one of the leading countries in energetics(wave power plants, etc.) and weaponry(no extra explanation needed), and China is a leading consumer goods manufacturer. An economic alliance that produces everything AND exports manifactured goods to its counterbalance is pretty dangerous. Don't know how cold it can get.

[kami321]

Once the political situation would stabilize in RF, and the economical situation would strengthen it

I think its the other way around. If the economic situation will truly strengthen, then the political situation will stabalize.

Chinese immigrants still threaten Siberia.

In what way? In saving Russia's declining population from disappearing and providing a cheap labor force? I see no threat there. It's all a matter of perception. There isn't any real threat now, and in case of full military alliance between RF and PRC, there will be no threat at all.

South Korea is all but an ally(Russia's economic partnership with SK is one of the strongest partnerships Russia has with countries outside of the CIS).

This won't last. ROK is under US thumb, pretty literally speaking, if the Russian realtions with US will deteriorate, ROK will follow.

Would EurAsEC merge into a single country

I'd predict that eventually EU and at least some of EurAsEC will achieve merger, namely Belarus + Russia + Kazakhstan + South Ossetia and Abkhazia union sounds likely. Also maybe Ukraine will collapse in two, who knows.

Oil and gas prices would skyrocket

Much more so in the US than in Russia, because most major oil producing countries happen to be least friendly to US. Iran and Venezuela are already ready to cut off economic links with the west at any moment, in case of econoimc recovery in Russia I'd expect Azerbaijan and Turmenistan to take Russia's side as well, leaving the western powers with basically with Iraq, Angola, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and a bunch of insignificant oil producers. Iraq won't last long, so bascally it will be all up to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to keep the western economies alive. Needless to say, the oil prices in the west will be seriously hurt.
Russia will urgently need to build new pipelines all across Sibiria to be able to fuel the Chinese economy more effectively. Although Russia is already planning such pipelines actaully.


Oh and also, "cold war" doesn't really mean that all economic links have to be cut. Russia can still continue suppling gas to EU and competing against it in an armed race at the same time.

[Kiroff]

I think its the other way around. If the economic situation will truly strengthen, then the political situation will stabalize.

I just meant that both would happen, no time relation.

In what way? In saving Russia's declining population from disappearing and providing a cheap labor force? I see no threat there. It's all a matter of perception. There isn't any real threat now, and in case of full military alliance between RF and PRC, there will be no threat at all.

However, the population does not want to become of a Chinese culture and the immigrants don't want to assimilate creating an _ethnic problem_.

This won't last. ROK is under US thumb, pretty literally speaking, if the Russian realtions with US will deteriorate, ROK will follow.

However, ROK has enormous investments in Russia as its corporations such as LG, Samsung, Daewoo, and others build assembly plants in Russia. That won't be easy to stop.

I'd predict that eventually EU and at least some of EurAsEC will achieve merger, namely Belarus + Russia + Kazakhstan + South Ossetia and Abkhazia union sounds likely. Also maybe Ukraine will collapse in two, who knows.

I doubt that Russia would take useless regions like Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Maybe Transdniestria for strategic purposes, but those two are simply useless. They're only leverage against Georgia and eventually the US.

I'd expect Azerbaijan and Turmenistan to take Russia's side as well

Why Azerbaijan? From what I see they are realpolitik, and they would only take show gives more benefits in the end. So far it's the US.

Oh and also, "cold war" doesn't really mean that all economic links have to be cut. Russia can still continue suppling gas to EU and competing against it in an armed race at the same time.

Yeah, but same thing happenned during the Cold War. The USSR exported oil and gas to Western Europe and imported grain from the US and Canada. Though today Russia exports grain.

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In the end it will either be a bipolar world like in the Cold War or pure chaos. The world today is like the post-partition Roman Empire. Neither principate is strong enough to control the whole empire, but each is more than powerful enough to control its of territory causeing conflict. Or post-Alexander the Great if you like.

[Political Interest]

Indian politics will also be crucial

India would not likely side with the United States. Historically India have had a good relationship with Russia, lasting back into the Soviet days with Kruschev. India buys alot of MiGs and Sukhoi from the Russian Federation, and they even have the license to make some of Russia's weapons. We must also not forget that the United States has historically backed Pakistan, in relation to the Soviet's backing of India, and even till today Musharraff receives weapons from the US. Yet, Pakistan is also very friendly with China and this could shift relations somewhat to a more Chinese centered policy on Pakistan, and therefore make India possibly turn futher to the United States. If China and the Russian Federation do ally, India would be at a dilemma as to whether they should join an alliance with China, who they have had historic rivalry with, or forsake Russia by joining with the US. Overall, I think it is unlikely that Russia will ally with China in the near future because the two are currently undergoing a rivalry in Africa, for influence. Remember, Putin is looking to revive Russia as a great power and China is a potential rival. Perhaps we can see Russia emerging as a third non-aligned power in this conflict? In many ways Russia is acting pragmatically to do what it must do, but overall it is hard to tell where India will stand if there is such a split.

[kami321]

the population does not want to become of a Chinese culture and the immigrants don't want to assimilate creating an _ethnic problem_.

Does United States have an ethnic problem?
And how do you know that they don't want to assimilate? Did you ask them or did you see some meaningful statistics about it? I doubt so.

That won't be easy to stop.

True, but as I said, given enough time the economic ties can be broken, as long as both sides desire it.

So far it's the US.

No, actually, so far it's rather neutral, leaning only slightly to US side perhaps. Development of Russian economy and/or settlement of the Karabakh crisis may well reverse this.

The world today is like the post-partition Roman Empire

Interesting theory, except, according to it the actual united "Roman Empire" existed only for only about a decade or so, and even then the east was more independent than hoped, and "maybe he forgot, that Russia still has nuclear weapons!"

We must also not forget that the United States has historically backed Pakistan, in relation to the Soviet's backing of India, and even till today Musharraff receives weapons from the US.

Don't overestimate the Indian hatred of Pakistan. From what I understand, the conflict is close to being settled.

Overall, I think it is unlikely that Russia will ally with China in the near future because the two are currently undergoing a rivalry in Africa, for influence.

Interesting, where specifically?

Remember, Putin is looking to revive Russia as a great power and China is a potential rival.

In a capitalist world, everyone is a potential rival. Japan for instance is a potential rival of US, yet US and Japan are still close allies, aren't they?

[Kiroff]

Does United States have an ethnic problem?

Yes.(To a certain extent.) Of course it's no as bad as before. It's a different sort of problem though.

And how do you know that they don't want to assimilate? Did you ask them or did you see some meaningful statistics about it? I doubt so.

Unlike immigrants from Transcaucus and Central Asia they live in "ghetto" communities separate from the "native" society.

Interesting theory, except, according to it the actual united "Roman Empire" existed only for only about a decade or so, and even then the east was more independent than hoped, and "maybe he forgot, that Russia still has nuclear weapons!"

That's why I said post-partition. The world has never been united, except when humans were just emerging. The point I wanted to make is that no single side can control the whole world. And the principiates I was talking about are the tetrarch. However, still, each side is strong enough to control more than its sphere but neither is strong enough to control the whole world.

[Political Interest]

Don't overestimate the Indian hatred of Pakistan. From what I understand, the conflict is close to being settled.

But its about having a history of friendship. I would not say the conflict is close to ending, because there is still a historic tension between Indians and Pakistanis. While it may sometimes be friendly, there is often conflict over Kashmir and Hindu Nationalism is also a very strong force in India at the moment, a force which does play a part in Indian politics. India has a good relationship with Russia, although internal politics in Pakistan may shift India's position. If the more militant, anti-US, more hardline factions within Pakistan take over from Musharraff, there may be a shift towards looking for other sources of allegience, perhaps to Russia? Russia may take this as a chance to gain a foothold in the Islamic world, which China is also trying to do. India may feel somewhat abanndoned, and with this could possibly more open to the United States. Bush is already making advances towards India, and I believe he invited them to send troops to Iraq. But I doubt that the extreme factions in Pakistan would likely side with Russia, given the Chechen crisis, and as Iran becomes more of a supplier of weapons and aid, Pakistan may choose neither the US or Russia, and it may continue its friendship with China. For this reason, Russia and India will continue to be strongly linked if Pakistan were to lose its friendship with the US and a Russia, China rivalry could possibly develop.

[Ombrageux]

I really don't see how Russia could possibly recover to the power she had in the Cold War. Eastern Europe is independent and will stay that way, Russia population is half that of the USSR (and dropping by 1 million/year), America's economic and demographic growth is steady. Russia's economy is still a mess, though that is somewhat obscured by high oil prices.

[kami321]

Eastern Europe is independent and will stay that way

By independent, you mean EU and NATO? Why say independent then? Or if you're talking about Ukraine and Belarus, the former may collapse and the latter will eventually join some sort of union with Russia.

Russia population is half that of the USSR (and dropping by 1 million/year),

This doesn't have to continue this way, right? Population growth is not something predetermined and uncontrollable.

America's economic and demographic growth is steady

Steady at 3% (economic growth). If things continue the way they are progressing now, the American position in the world will be displaced soon by EU and China.

[alyster]

If I'm not harshly mistaking then last year was one of the first in this millenium when EU's economic growth over did US.

Altough disagreement apear, US and EU are and will be allies. Their economy together is massive. China could become a strong player, atlist so the economists keep saying, but that's not even sure. Secondly China isn't going to be Russia's wingman, it will either lead the oposition side or be on it's own. I think we learned that from the original cold war. So economically I don't see a threat to Euro-atlantic zone unless some global catastrophy will occure, such as peek oil.

[Ombrageux]

By independent, you mean EU and NATO? Why say independent then? Or if you're talking about Ukraine and Belarus, the former may collapse and the latter will eventually join some sort of union with Russia.

Either way, they are all outside of Russia's embrace.

This doesn't have to continue this way, right? Population growth is not something predetermined and uncontrollable.

It is very difficult to change these trends, pro-natalist government policies have a long history of ineffectiveness.

Steady at 3% (economic growth). If things continue the way they are progressing now, the American position in the world will be displaced soon by EU and China.

Actually, the EU is unfortunately doing quite poorly. Either way, Russia is on the 3rd or 4th rung of economic powers, a massive catchup will be necessary even begin running in the same race.

[Kiroff]

DumbTeen:

What If Russian Federation was to start rapidly recovering its economy at a fast rate (like in China) in near future? Could/would that lead to a new cold war?

Let's lock this as the premise and not argue that it won't(for people who love to. I was going to argue this too when I first saw it).

[kami321]

Actually, the EU is unfortunately doing quite poorly.

Still it has a future, I believe. Its combined economy is higher than of US and its currency is stronger.

a massive catchup will be necessary even begin running in the same race.

Yup, that's why right now this is little more than a theory. We'll see if the next guy after Putin will be a little more sane and economically successful.

I think we learned that from the original cold war.

What did you learn? There is very little that you could learn about this from cold war v1 because the situation now is quite radically different.
1. The governments of both countries are not ideologically driven, much more nihilistic actually than US and its friends.
2. Moscow is no longer more powerful than Beijing, now it's the other way around. And China doesn't have a history of imperialism against Russia (unlike vise-versa).
3. The actual territorial conflict between the two states has been settled.

[Shade2]

By independent, you mean EU and NATO? Why say independent then?

Why not ? Members of EU and NATO are free and independent countries. Especially new ones cheerish end of being soviet slaves.

If things continue the way they are progressing now, the American position in the world will be displaced soon by EU

EU isn't a state and will not become one.

I'd predict that eventually EU and at least some of EurAsEC will achieve merger

Never going to happen. You forgot Poland We will make sure Russia's dreams of hegomony will be opposed. EU will thus never merge with Russia. Of course a new organisations could be possible-but it won't change the fact that between Germany and potential core EU there is Poland. I am rather enjoying seeing Russia lose its money on Baltic pipeline

[Kiroff]

Dude, learn to read. He never said anything about a merger between Russia and EU. You didn't even read this thread. And no one cares about a minor delusion called Poland. And never will.

Poland is not a variable in the formula of world politics. Bye.

[Shade2]

Dude, learn to read.

Dude stop hallucinating.

I'd predict that eventually EU and at least some of EurAsEC will achieve merger

So either you can't read, or your current hallucination of becoming Lenin's cat has taken over your perception of reality.

. And no one cares about a minor delusion called Poland. And never will.
.

Sure, Panslavist idiots didn't care when we ruined their hallucinations of PanRussian Empire, Lenin also didn't care about Poland when we kicked his butt back to Russian steppes, neither did Hitler when we unleashed the might of the entire world against him, nor did Soviet Russia care when we led to collapse of communism together with both Polish heroes-Ronald Reagan and John Paul II
And now of course its also fun to see Russia being blocked by Poland in EU, waste billions on pipeline projects that looks as much possible in realisation as "real communims" Soon Russia will have territory of USA nearer its border-USA bases are USA's territory. Oh its such fun to see Russia dreams ruined