[MB.]

In laymans terms?

Redundancy is important.

[killim]

In laymans terms?

If one link in the chain breaks you will surely want a backup

[Figlio di Moros]

What does this have to do with seperate MA/MP corps, intelligence corps, Airwarfare, pencil-pushers, etc?

[MB.]

I was talking to a friend of mine about this recently, and he very astutely pointed out that China operates a unified force structure and possesses the largest military in the world. Of course, the question of whether or not the People's Army Airforce and People's Army Navy could actaully contest control of the air, space and sea routes of communication with the United States will be continually debatable.

[Figlio di Moros]

China is competitive with us in the feild of cyberwarfare, and there's been concerns with the improvement of their Navy. Overall, I'd say that they'd be competitive in a defensive war against us, to include littoral combat, but I'm sure you're well aware of their lack of force projection.

[Igor Antunov]

I'm sure you're well aware of their lack of force projection.

A temporary state of affairs. Their first 3 medium-carriers are already under construction.

[Figlio di Moros]

I'm aware they're building their Naval power; however, they've got a far way to go before they'll be competitive with the US.

[Igor Antunov]

I'm aware they're building their Naval power; however, they've got a far way to go before they'll be competitive with the US.

'Fair way' being sometime within the next 20-30 years, which isn't all that long and is in fact irrrelevant considering nations exist on thousand year timescales. China was no.1 in all areas before, and it will be so again, then it will fall, then it will rise agian, ad infinitum until it isn't even called 'china' anymore and humans have 2 heads with 30 fingers on each hand.

[Figlio di Moros]

China is a highly over populated, resource starved nation; to say its rise and fall is imminent and inevitable doesn't strike me as too realistic, unless it can gain control of Siberia. However, I doubt the next "fall" wouldn't see their influence limited permenantly if they lose many of their autonomous regions.

At any rate, this is about a unified command structure; to say that China will potentially have a powerful blue water Navy in 20-30 yrs is irrelevent to the discussion at hand.

[Igor Antunov]

unless it can gain control of Siberia.

Typical western mode of thinking. The chinese trade for resources, they don't invade and occupy for them. Russia will play ball with a rich, eager to buy china, oh yes it will.

see their influence limited permenantly if they lose many of their autonomous regions.

They're only getting stronger and richer, so hypothesising that they will lose territory makes no sense.

At any rate, this is about a unified command structure;

This is a goal in their modernization process. Their military is continuously shrinking as they modernize it, as they are going for integration.

[Figlio di Moros]

unless it can gain control of Siberia.

Typical western mode of thinking. The chinese trade for resources, they don't invade and occupy for them. Russia will play ball with a rich, eager to buy china, oh yes it will.

You mean, "typical historical mode of thinking."

The point is, unless China specifically gains control of vast resources, they'll continue to have to compete for them; it'll continue having to import minerals, oil, food, etc. One major problem with looking at it as a potential military power is it's lack of economic security.

They're only getting stronger and richer, so hypothesising that they will lose territory makes no sense.

Right, and you think 7% growth is going to be sustainable? They'll plateau so enough, and you made reference to them "rising, falling, and rising again", which is why I pointed that out to you.

[Igor Antunov]

Right, and you think 7% growth is going to be sustainable?

They've sustained 10% growth on average over the past 20 years, and it looks to continue for the forseeable future, they only need another 20 years to surpass US economic might, and at that point they will STILL be just a developing country. Plenty of resources to go around for another couple of centuries, before were forced to plunge into the depths of space.

No doubt they will continue growing until they are fully developed, this means a per capita income of at least $40,000 or more per person, at that stage were talking 50% of the world economy concentrated in one country, as it was before, in ming china.

[Figlio di Moros]

In a country of 1.7 Billion people? Don't be asinine, their only economic advantage is their cheap supply of labor, and proposing they'll maintain 10% growth for another 20 yrs. is highly unlikely.

[Igor Antunov]

and proposing they'll maintain 10% growth for another 20 yrs. is highly unlikely.

You could have said the same 30 years ago in 1980. Growth survived multiple international recessions and never slowed overall. The average over that period is still over 10% per year.

In a country of 1.7 Billion people? Don't be asinine

EU is averaging $30,000 per capita at 502 million people after having it's economy destroyed in a world war and the eastern members have just emerged from a collapse after the soviet union. Europe also has no resource base to speak off. It was used up long ago. China is yet to develop her interior, untold resource wealth in those mountaneous regions. It's certainly possible.

their only economic advantage is their cheap supply of labor

And the fact that they have a workforce of over 800 million people, and later up to 1 billion people. They don't even ever have to be 50% as productive per person in order to produce more wealth overall, and national economic power comes from aggregate wealth produced in the country. It also benefits from being a centralized state, that wealth can be spent real quick, and targetted at specific sectors at the click of a finger.

I'm curious, when do you think China's growth will suddenly stop and start falling fast? When do you think China will fall into recession? 2015? 2025? You only have until 2025 before they overtake the US in nominal GDP and double the real gdp, so you'd better start praying for it's economy to collapse right now.