Scotland may vote for independence from the UK in second EU referendum - Page 2 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#14695619
All day when following the news whether on here or some of the usual suspects in British media (drop in on the Guardian if anyone wishes to see a funerary procession in full swing) I've heard the same sort of reaching pleas. "Scotland voted remain in!", "Northern Ireland voted remain in!", "The youth demographic voted remain in!", etc. ad nauseum. It just comes across as pathetic and desperate because none of it matters. The United Kingdom as a whole, accounting for all ages, backgrounds, constituent nations and regions, voted to leave. That is what counts here and that is the news story. And thank God for that.

Let's imagine a scenario which is reversed in which the remain vote won out as most of us anticipated, whether it was by 10% or 5% or 1%. Do you imagine for a second those people would be pointing to the fact that the majority of white working class Englishmen voted to leave (as well as many non-white British citizens in England's industrial blue collar areas), or that the senior age bracket voted to leave and making an implication that this somehow puts the vote's fairness or validity in question? They would be castigating and casting aside such people in a heartbeat and drinking to their tears.

If every time there was a referendum in any country and those who opposed the outcome pointed to the contrary stance of their home region/state/city as grounds for secession and the dissolution of their country, then it would be an invitation to anarchy.

Being an ethnic and cultural nationalist I was initially sympathetic on principle to my interpretation of the sentiment behind Scotland's independence referendum, but the more I saw who and what Salmond, the SNP and their supporting base are and stand for in Scotland, the more I feel comfortable with the position I adopted as the date drew closer which was a position for a united Britain, a United Kingdom. That feeling and conclusion couldn't be more vindicated today. It's a sad thing for those Scots historically who were willing to kill and die to secure the autonomy of their realm from English overreach but today the greatest threat to them is themselves, the political class in Edinburgh. Modern Scottish nationalism/separatism is nothing but an ideologically bankrupt platform for those who want to assert their "independence" by ditching their fellow Britons, much ethnic and cultural kin among them, to cling to the largest and most pervasive supranational organization on the planet as it accelerates an integration process intended by its architects to be irreversible. Such people should shut up or be made to shut up so I hope Westminster if it has any wisdom still quashes this idea before it even becomes a serious debate. This is the first referendum held on the UK status in the EU since the pathway to accession in the 1970's, so there's certainly no need to talk of another Scottish referendum after less than two years.
Last edited by Far-Right Sage on 25 Jun 2016 06:39, edited 1 time in total.
#14695621
Far-Right Sage wrote:All day when following the news whether on here or some of the usual suspects in British media (drop in on the Guardian if anyone wishes to see a funerary procession in full swing) I've heard the same sort of reaching pleas. "Scotland voted remain in!", "Northern Ireland voted remain in!", "The youth demographic voted remain in!", etc. ad nauseum. It just comes across as pathetic and desperate because none of it matters. The United Kingdom as a whole, accounting for all ages, backgrounds, constituent nations and regions, voted to leave. That is what counts here and that is the news story. And thank God for that.

Let's imagine a scenario which is reversed in which the remain vote won out as most of us anticipated, whether it was by 10% or 5% or 1%. Do you imagine for a second those people would be pointing to the fact that the majority of white working class Englishmen voted to leave (as well as many non-white British citizens in England's industrial blue collar areas), or that the senior age bracket voted to leave and making an implication that this somehow puts the vote's fairness or validity in question? They would be castigating and casting aside such people in a heartbeat and drinking to their tears.


To be fair, the "senior white working class Englishmen" have no intention to secede from the UK and will die out anyway in the non-so-far future, they're less relevant.
#14695661
Counter intuitively perhaps, Scots may not vote for independence this time round and cunning - fish faced - Sturgeon knows why.

It is because Europe doesn’t really want the messy hassle of onboarding Scotland while detaching England. Additionally Spain will veto it unless Germany choses to stamp its authority on them - it probably won’t.

Therefore, this would look like a double risk to the pragmatic voter. You would be leaving the UK and the EU - same as before but without a chance in hell of it being amicable on both sides.

There is a slight possibility that the EU stakeholders could see this as an alternitive stick of punishment to the UK for leaving. A breaking up of the UK would make the whole exersize look damaging which would be preferable in some quarters to hitting trade – something that is more painful for both sides.

Still, what do I know? My last prediction turned out to be badly wrong :lol:
#14695678
Rugoz wrote:
Seems pretty obvious. At least when it comes to Western Ukrainians.

Western Ukrainians are Galicians, better known as Ruthenians when your people ruled over them. The difference between Galicians and Eastern Ukrainians (or Little Russians) seems to be similar to that between Croats and Serbs, although unlike Croats Galicians don't appear to be particularly good at...anything.

Rugoz wrote:
Ukrainians seem to be less obedient. I cannot imagine Russians protesting in a similar way, even though they have plenty of things to protest about.

The Ukraine has been the worst performing post-Soviet economy of all. It's the one country in the former Soviet Union where the oligarch process spiraled out of control, allowing billionaires to basically take over and ruin the country. The Russian Federation has done about as well as the Baltic States and Visegrad countries economically and the only ex-Soviet countries to improve markedly more are Belarus (much poorer than Russia in 1990) and Azerbaijan (where oil is far more of a factor than Russia).

The situation really isn't comparable at all. The biggest problems in Russia now are Elvira Nabullina and Russians themselves. One can't blame Vladimir Putin for the fact that Russians appear to have never discovered the power washer.
#14695727
Hello Mr. ZN! It's one of the happiest days in recent history for me, greater perhaps than even the beginning of the direct Russian intervention in Syria, so I certainly couldn't let it pass by without sharing my thoughts with my friends here. And of course I couldn't wait to see the reactions of some of my British friends and sparring partners alike here, from Reiko and Potemkin to Thompson and Layman.

layman wrote:Counter intuitively perhaps, Scots may not vote for independence this time round and cunning - fish faced - Sturgeon knows why.

It is because Europe doesn’t really want the messy hassle of onboarding Scotland while detaching England. Additionally Spain will veto it unless Germany choses to stamp its authority on them - it probably won’t.

Therefore, this would look like a double risk to the pragmatic voter. You would be leaving the UK and the EU - same as before but without a chance in hell of it being amicable on both sides.

There is a slight possibility that the EU stakeholders could see this as an alternitive stick of punishment to the UK for leaving. A breaking up of the UK would make the whole exersize look damaging which would be preferable in some quarters to hitting trade – something that is more painful for both sides.

Still, what do I know? My last prediction turned out to be badly wrong :lol:


As you know I've been mostly absent in recent months but have had a chance to pop in now and again and do some reading without commenting. I saw a comment/post of yours a while back stating that this outcome was an impossible one! Without being too cheeky, I'd definitely like to hear your thoughts now that it's all said and done.

Admittedly I thought it would fail too. From the day I heard it announced in what I believe was 2012 and every day it's entered my mind since to the present I thought it was effectively a non-starter. The British are historically known for straying from any decision or cause at home with the perception of radicalism and radical change attached to it. Like any country there is a far-right and a nationalist movement, but not with the prominence of those in say, a smaller Eastern or Central European country such as Hungary. The traditional hard right being even well behind Front National in France (I don't equate Farage and UKIP with Marine Le Pen's movement, before anyone swoops in here).

I also miscalculated and thought that when the EU eventually started to show cracks I've long been praying for, it would come from the secession of one of the smaller countries with a more energized far-right and/or far-left and a much more severe economic problem - think of Greece as the textbook case. And yet there even a slightly less liberal establishment social democratic faction aligned with the "alter-globalization movement" such as Syriza and Tsipras' administration turned out to be Brussels collaborationists when push came to shove. Perhaps the key ingredient is not the country with the strongest Euroskeptic movement but the country with a moderate sized one that is actually large enough to even be in a position to stand up on its own after decades of bullying, brainwashing and forced assimilation. One that can not be dissuaded from giving their people a greater say by one flight of Merkel, Van Rompuy and that crew to the capital. If that theory holds true then we should be looking to a country like France or the Netherlands to be the next domino to fall, whether in four years or ten, rather than perhaps Greece or Hungary or any of the smaller nations that will not move until they see another one or more of the larger ones. Then it will be like Eastern and Central Europe circa 1989 all over again. It will be like watching a rerun. I hope it comes in what remains of my lifetime. Though Pandora's box has already been opened. Even the satisfaction of knowing that it's now finally in motion is enough. Of course there will be an even fiercer more bitter campaign to stop that in its tracks because:

1) The European neoliberal elite will now know it's possible and that even humoring the pretense of allowing a greater democratic voice can produce a horrible fluke like Brexit and kill their project

2) Those are core Western European continental countries

3) Those are Eurozone countries

So, my question. You've always been someone I considered to be of the right even as of the center-right with enough objectivity to mingle and talk with us extremists while holding to a more conventional Tory line on most serious issues. Can you now see that those, whether Tories, Labour, etc., and the entire centre-right and centre-left establishment you placed faith in here horribly misread the mood of the British public? Especially the middle class and working class encompassing the entire ideological portfolio and even the non(consciously) ideological pragmatists? Otherwise they would have never brought up the idea of a referendum to appear to entertain opposition, authorized it when it gained traction and sat idly by in smug confidence in all these years and months leading up to it without finding some way to throw a spanner in the works.

Internationalism, borderless neoliberalism, the transnational post-modernist project of a citizen with no language, no ethnicity, no gender, no culture, no country no faith except his pocketbook has been dealt the most grievous blow in one day and I couldn't be more ecstatic!!!

Now I'm gushing but I think this is a moment of serious historical consequence. It will spur more serious French nationalists and Dutch nationalists to glom on to a mass movement party like Front National and the PVV (despite the shortcomings and all compromises to advance in the electoral game those parties have had to make) as a temporary vehicle to smash the Eurocrat occupier. Even beyond other potential exits it will breathe new life into those seeking to defy the EU on a whole range of matters from Greece to Poland. And it will put the brakes even harder than they already were after the Russian annexation of Crimea and fall of Saakashvili on expansionist initiatives like the absorption of Ukraine and Georgia.

Years of failed British and European domestic and foreign policy and, what's more, the smug, implacable and infuriating refusal on their part to even admit there was a problem and make the slightest of concessions to an alternate style or point of view has finally had consequences for them and exacted just retribution upon them in a single day. Of course true justice would be them admitting what they've done before swinging from a long colonnade of lampposts but in the world we currently live in this is good enough. A victory against internationalism in any corner of the world is a victory for all of us.

The optics are incredible, euphoric even. Their armor of phony invincibility and the myth that resistance to consolidation of their project being futile has been smashed into a thousand pieces in front of a global audience.
#14695732
As you know I've been mostly absent in recent months but have had a chance to pop in now and again and do some reading without commenting. I saw a comment/post of yours a while back stating that this outcome was an impossible one! Without being too cheeky, I'd definitely like to hear your thoughts now that it's all said and done.


Hello good sir. Your return feels like that last satisfying piece to a broken jigsaw I call POFO 

Yes, I had thought the establishment would at least have had the decency to rig the vote lol

And yes I have egg on my face regarding that prediction.

So, my question. You've always been someone I considered to be of the right even as of the center-right with enough objectivity to mingle and talk with us extremists while holding to a more conventional Tory line on most serious issues. Can you now see that those, whether Tories, Labour, etc., and the entire centre-right and centre-left establishment you placed faith in here horribly misread the mood of the British public? Especially the middle class and working class encompassing the entire ideological portfolio and even the non(consciously) ideological pragmatists? Otherwise they would have never brought up the idea of a referendum to appear to entertain opposition, authorized it when it gained traction and sat idly by in smug confidence in all these years and months leading up to it without finding some way to throw a spanner in the works.


Hmm dunno. I doubt they will be given a vote unless the far right parties get a lot more support in those places. They saw Cameron screw up and so why repeat the mistake?

Cameron was far more worried about UKIP stealing tory votes than his only party split. Likewise, center right parties could do the same if they really have to.

This too turned out to be a bit of a miscalculation though as UKIP took more labour votes than tory. Again, the establishments everywhere are finding it harder and harder to read the people.
Last edited by layman on 25 Jun 2016 22:21, edited 1 time in total.
#14695837
One option of many for the The snp.

legislation taking the UK out of the EU has to be endorsed by the Scottish Parliament and there is already talk about holding it up, even defeating it when it appears before Holyrood. That would spark a constitutional crisis but that is exactly what some in the SNP want. That might be the most effective way of showing, not just that Scotland is different from the rest of the UK, but that it has considerable clout too.
#14695839
Anyway, as a European in the UK I truly hope that in the coming months reality comes back to the mainstream and the pack of lies told and re-told come out, Cameron with his move has allowed the next 4 months for the Brits to reconsider and when told the truth instead of the non-sense I am quite positive that the Brits will understand.


Also, Henry MacLeish (former leader of Scottish labour and first minister) has switched. He says would now vote yes to leave the uk.
#14695851
FRS wrote:Admittedly I thought it would fail too.

I'd like to welcome you back too, FRS. I hope it's not your health preventing you from posting.

I also thought the most likely outcome was remain and almost everybody else, even the bookies, did too. I wasn't as certain as layman, but then I hardly ever think about political issues in terms of certainty anyway.
#14696094
layman wrote:Counter intuitively perhaps, Scots may not vote for independence this time round and cunning - fish faced - Sturgeon knows why.

It is because Europe doesn’t really want the messy hassle of onboarding Scotland while detaching England. Additionally Spain will veto it unless Germany choses to stamp its authority on them - it probably won’t.

Therefore, this would look like a double risk to the pragmatic voter. You would be leaving the UK and the EU - same as before but without a chance in hell of it being amicable on both sides.

There is a slight possibility that the EU stakeholders could see this as an alternitive stick of punishment to the UK for leaving. A breaking up of the UK would make the whole exersize look damaging which would be preferable in some quarters to hitting trade – something that is more painful for both sides.

Still, what do I know? My last prediction turned out to be badly wrong :lol:


From what i've been reading the Spanish would only veto us if we made a unilateral move for independence. if it's done in agreement with westminster they are fine with it.

And i really hope westminster tries to deny us a referendum as some here are hoping for. It would be the biggest boost the independence movement could hope for. :lol:
#14696098
From what i've been reading the Spanish would only veto us if we made a unilateral move for independence. if it's done in agreement with westminster they are fine with it.


I doubt that is true. It is not so much the way the referendum is called they care about. It is the safety net of a seamless EU accession which would embolden catalans and elsewhere.

That is, unless the funny one with the pony tail wins.

And i really hope westminster tries to deny us a referendum as some here are hoping for. It would be the biggest boost the independence movement could hope for. :lol:


Correct - it would seal the deal in the longer term. Still, things are not as rosy as some nats seem to think.

1 - looks like the accession deal is not on the table from her first calls.
2 - even if it were, it would still mean adopting the euro
3 - it would be uncertainty on top of uncertainty.
5 - the timing is not of her chosing - she wanted 5 years to lay the groundwork
6 - it may trigger more business panic which would act against the SNP doctrine of pragmatism and competence inspiring behavior.

Still very much a wait and see. I think it all depends on what the actual conditions are going to be. My opinion:

If it will be a full exit then yes she will have to call indyref2. She couldnt hold it back then even if she wanted
If it is total fudge-exit then she will probably not bother and wait
If it is a half way (like norway deal) then who knows
#14696110
layman wrote:I doubt that is true. It is not so much the way the referendum is called they care about. It is the safety net of a seamless EU accession which would embolden catalans and elsewhere.

That is, unless the funny one with the pony tail wins.

But us winning a legal referendum wouldn't be comparable to the catalonian situation as Spain wouldn't grant them a legal referendum (unless maybe the socialists get in). Doesn't make sense.
Another difference is that Scotland wouldn't be ceding from a EU state this time like Catalonia would be doing with Spain.
Anyway we will soon find out.

layman wrote:Correct - it would seal the deal in the longer term. Still, things are not as rosy as some nats seem to think.

1 - looks like the accession deal is not on the table from her first calls.
2 - even if it were, it would still mean adopting the euro
3 - it would be uncertainty on top of uncertainty.
5 - the timing is not of her chosing - she wanted 5 years to lay the groundwork
6 - it may trigger more business panic which would act against the SNP doctrine of pragmatism and competence inspiring behavior.

Still very much a wait and see. I think it all depends on what the actual conditions are going to be. My opinion:

If it will be a full exit then yes she will have to call indyref2. She couldnt hold it back then even if she wanted
If it is total fudge-exit then she will probably not bother and wait
If it is a half way (like norway deal) then who knows


True, we just don't what is going to happen yet, too much chaos.

But there does seem to be a massive shift in opinion from people who were staunch unionists at the last referendum. I was amazed last night reading twitter at some of the people who are saying the would support the Yes side now.

Last time we got 45% when up against the entire British establishment and the media with not one daily newspaper on our side. Already some newspapers have changed sides so next time the media will be at least balanced.
Also i think before the campaign wasn't the Yes side at like 30% or something? This time it will be starting higher. The latest poll done since Thursday has 65%-35% in favour of independence. :eek:

So i think it is very likely to be the end of the UK but i think how the EU institutions and member states respond to the SNP in negotiations is going to be very pivotal in how a lot of people vote.
#14696112
But us winning a legal referendum wouldn't be comparable to the catalonian situation as Spain wouldn't grant them a legal referendum (unless maybe the socialists get in).
Doesn't make sense.
Another difference is that Scotland wouldn't be ceding from a EU state this time like Catalonia would be doing with Spain.
Anyway we will soon find out.


It doesn’t matter about the exact dynamics. The point is that Spain doesn’t want it to be seen as an option at all for the Catalans.

But there does seem to be a massive shift in opinion from people who were staunch unionists at the last referendum. I was amazed last night reading twitter at some of the people who are saying the would support the Yes side now.


Yes, even old labour first ministers and front benchers.

Last time we got 45% when up against the entire British establishment and the media with not one daily newspaper on our side.


Check your bias here. What this EU referendum shows is that having the media + establishment on your side is probably not such a great thing anymore. People dont trust "experts" anymore. They trust their facebook feed instead :lol:

Also i think before the campaign wasn't the Yes side at like 30% or something? This time it will be starting higher. The latest poll done since Thursday has 65%-35% in favour of independence.


Yes athough we cannot assume any kind of swing during the campaign and the current remaining NO voters are going to be much harder to shift.

So i think it is very likely to be the end of the UK but i think how the EU institutions and member states respond to the SNP in negotiations is going to be very pivotal in how a lot of people vote.


News is there is already a snub.

You underestimate how inflexible and stuck in its ways the EU is. Scottish people also tend to be deluded as to the nature of independance becase they feel scotland is a country already and a member already. It is not a continuation. It is a new membership, including a seat and voting rights.

Still, denying reality has worked with the english public so it may well work just fine in indyref2.
#14697008
Looks like a no, especially as there is no hard left rising in spain.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-sco ... s-36656980

Spain's acting prime minister has said he is "extremely against" the EU negotiating potential membership for Scotland.

Mariano Rajoy said he "believes everyone is against it" and that "if the UK leave, Scotland leaves"


Speaking ahead of his meeting with Ms Sturgeon, Mr Juncker said: "Scotland won the right to be heard in Brussels so I will listen carefully to what the first minister will tell me.

"But we don't have the intention, neither Donald Tusk nor myself, to interfere in an inner British process that is not our duty and this is not our job."


Mr Rajoy said after a summit of EU leaders in Brussels that he wanted to be "very clear Scotland does not have the competence to negotiate with the European Union".

He added: "Spain opposes any negotiation by anyone other than the government of United Kingdom.

"I am extremely against it, the treaties are extremely against it and I believe everyone is extremely against it. If the United Kingdom leaves... Scotland leaves."

Spain was a vocal opponent of Scottish independence ahead of the 2014 referendum, largely because of the situation in Catalonia where there is a strong Catalan independence movement.


Never underestimate the EU's capacity for each member to look out for their own interests. This is why igor and Goons predictions of a strategic, coordinated attack on the UK look doubtful.
#14697042
Scotland shouldn't matter that much, it's a country of 5.3 million comprising 8% of the UK's population. I thought it was bigger.

As for the right-wing Spanish government being assholes so early: it's not a legitimate reason to reject Scotland's EU-membership that your separatists will leave you then too. Any European idiots need to have something reasonable to veto anything, it's not something they can do for or without any reason.

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