[Beren]

Sure, they will get a better healthcare system if they leave the EU, as well as Welsh farmers will get more subsidies!

[Zagadka]

[Zag Note: Please keep this thread on Trump]

[SpecialOlympian]

Trump did claim he predicted Brexit, once he knew what it was.

"And Brexit? Your position?" I ask [Donald Trump.]

"Huh?"

"Brexit."

"Hmm."

"The Brits leaving the EU," I prompt, realizing that his lack of familiarity with one of the most pressing issues in Europe is for him no concern nor liability at all.

"Oh yeah, I think they should leave."

[redcarpet]

Trump will be good for your tax bracket. What are you complaining about?

Not everyone is a selfish prick. There is the bigger picture. Not all voters are single-issue, selfish voters, etc.

[Potemkin]

Not everyone is a selfish prick. There is the bigger picture. Not all voters are single-issue, selfish voters, etc.

You aren't very familiar with middle-class people, are you?

[Beren]

Hollywood Reporter, June 1st wrote:
"And Brexit? Your position?" I ask [Donald Trump.]

"Huh?"

"Brexit."

"Hmm."

"The Brits leaving the EU," I prompt, realizing that his lack of familiarity with one of the most pressing issues in Europe is for him no concern nor liability at all.

"Oh yeah, I think they should leave."

Which means Trump is a genius, or rather a prophet. He had only some seconds to think about the issue, and spit out the right answer, like a supercomputer or something. History and life proved him right immediately!

[Hong Wu]

I'm pretty worried as to how the left will respond to a Trump victory. Their only really argument is "Trump dumb and racist". Meanwhile, every other place in the world is moving to the right and the American left is content making one-word arguments while muting conservatives as much as possible. They don't seem equipped, mentally, to cope with failure.

[Beren]

I'm pretty worried as to how the left will respond to a Trump victory. Their only really argument is "Trump dumb and racist". Meanwhile, every other place in the world is moving to the right and the American left is content making one-word arguments while muting conservatives as much as possible. They don't seem equipped, mentally, to cope with failure.

If Trump wins, then coping with failure will be tremendously difficult. Because America will win so much, that failure will seize to exist, so nobody will be able to cope with it. It's simple folks, the system is ridged, that's why we still have failures to cope with. But I can cope with anything, even if it doesn't exist any more. That's the secret of winning!

[SpecialOlympian]

I'm pretty worried as to how the left will respond to a Trump victory. Their only really argument is "Trump dumb and racist". Meanwhile, every other place in the world is moving to the right and the American left is content making one-word arguments while muting conservatives as much as possible. They don't seem equipped, mentally, to cope with failure.

Lol wtf is this word garbage.

Well, whizz and gee golly, I guess not voting for someone simply because they're a famous garbage person who only happens to be dumb and racist is bad. Somehow.

Also lol @ the tax argument. I make enough money so that I can care about conceptual bullshit, like whether or not my vote will put a racist tangerine in the White House.

If only people would stop and think about how the ignorant racists would feel if we didn't elect Trump, a man who played the role of a competent businessman on a reality show. How will the real minority, white people who don't understand how the economic system they supported is making them equal to the wrongskins, feel if we don't support Trump?

[Hong Wu]

Lol wtf is this word garbage.

Well, whizz and gee golly, I guess not voting for someone simply because they're a famous garbage person who only happens to be dumb and racist is bad. Somehow.

Also lol @ the tax argument. I make enough money so that I can care about conceptual bullshit, like whether or not my vote will put a racist tangerine in the White House.

If only people would stop and think about how the ignorant racists would feel if we didn't elect Trump, a man who played the role of a competent businessman on a reality show. How will the real minority, white people who don't understand how the economic system they supported is making them equal to the wrongskins, feel if we don't support Trump?

Funny but it's the case that there are parts of the country where "Trump is a racist, and orange" doesn't qualify as an argument. I'm not sure if the nation's Colbert fans realize this. It won't take all that much to put Trump over the top. He's within the margin of error in some swing states and voter turnout is abnormal.

[SpecialOlympian]

Anyone paying attention to the election before each party's convention is a weirdo. We are all weirdos here.

Go to your nearest bar and gauge the level of political awareness of anyone drunk enough to bum you a smoke if you don't believe me.

The fact that you're even paying attention right now puts you in the 1% of people who are politically aware. Same as if how contributing to your 401k before 35 puts you into the top 1% of "People who are good at financial planning."

But here's the thing: pollsters poll people who are either stupid or lonely enough to give up 15 minutes of their free time to someone who dialed them. These are the people who go through the ritual of voting, and all the polls are bad for Trump at this point in time.

[redcarpet]

But here's the thing: pollsters poll people who are either stupid or lonely enough to give up 15 minutes of their free time to someone who dialed them. These are the people who go through the ritual of voting, and all the polls are bad for Trump at this point in time.

Nor are all polls fair, eg; push polling. Tricky wording, etc. One must keep an open mind.

When it comes to poling, if you're serious, you go to the actual websites of the polling agencies, or think tanks, that DO them. The devil is in the detail. Always

[Drlee]

But here's the thing: pollsters poll people who are either stupid or lonely enough to give up 15 minutes of their free time to someone who dialed them. These are the people who go through the ritual of voting, and all the polls are bad for Trump at this point in time.

This is increasingly true and certainly a problem from pollsters. I don't do polls. And when I do I lie. Deliberately. I do not like telemarketers and that is what pollsters are to me.

This subject came up the other day at a meeting. In the meeting were 11 people, all but one of whom earn six figures. All of us denied taking part in any polls though we were all called frequently.

Then there is the "telephone demographic". Polls almost never include significant numbers of people who use cell phones only. That would rule out two of my neighbors; homeowners in a relatively affluent neighborhood.

A note of caution. Look at the Brexit polls. They got it dead wrong. Off by some 12 points on average. This is what is frightening. You have to decide for yourself (as SO correctly points out) that we even believe that the polls are asking the right question. People in polling booths have the annoying habit of voting for their own private reasons. My hope is that significant numbers of people will sober up and fly right before the election. That surely did not happen on the Brexit vote. We watched otherwise sober and sane people pull one of the stupidest stunts in recent history. So stupid that even the supporters of Brexit are in one huge "holy shit what did I drink last night and who is this girl with facial tattoos" mood. Now the whole country is flailing around for a daddy figure to make it all right. Blair's name has come up in several things I have read.

The thing is that Trump, if he is smart enough and can suck some billionaire dick to raise money, could pull this off. He really could. If he shows up at the convention ready to tow the company like and picks a VP that shows sober consideration he could turn his bad-boy image around overnight. If he moves from firebrand to avuncular business tycoon mode, promising better wages and promising the people that he can build alliances across party lines that speak not only to conservative bigots but to liberals as well, he could win.

Ironically, Trump's biggest problem is not Trump. It is (and I am certain he would disagree with this) that he has built a life of surrounding himself with sycophants. He needs someone who can sit with him for an hour at 10 PM every night and chew his ass until he promises to get back on message. Someone whose contract allows him to get into fuck-you mode and whose golden-parachute gives him a life-long income if Trump fires him. All of this in exchange for a cabinet post or Ambassadorship to Norway.

If I were that guy I would say to Trump..."Look. We are going into the convention in two weeks. You are going to pick Casper Milktoast as your VP. You are going to pick someone whose integrity is unimpeachable. He (and it must be a he) will be a bone to the left. Someone like George Pataki.

So here is the deal. Check this out:

•On many issues, there are between a quarter and two-fifths of Republicans who disagree with the party's position. 34 percent think marijuana should be legal, 33 percent think gun laws should be more strict, 28 percent support federally funded universal pre-K, 24 percent think global warming is caused mostly by human activity, 36 percent support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, 40 percent support same-sex marriage, and 37 percent think the distribution of wealth should be more fair.

There are the numbers that can give Trump a win. If this is true for republicans, imagine how many independents will have the same positions. Right now Hilary is out front on each and every one of these issues. Trump could take them. The real deal is this. The far right members of the republican party would vote for a cephalopod before they would vote for Hilary. Trump can simply count them as a done deal. Now he needs to pivot HARD to the left. HARD. And the above are the issues where he can do just that while still keeping up his tough-guy façade.

But he is not wise enough to do this. I wish I could spend a couple of hours with him in a hotel room with just him and his kids. He could walk out the winner.

[Beren]

He could walk out the winner.

He could walk out the winner any time, but he won't, because he's not supposed to. He doesn't want to be president, he couldn't even bear that lifestyle. He doesn't want to make America great, he wants to make himself and his family business really great. As president in the rest of his active life he couldn't do that. He also knows he's not the right person, and with the platform he's created for himself it would be an impossible task to do.

[QatzelOk]

Trump's idiotic mis-statement in Scotland about Brexit... was in all the papers.

Meanwhile, what Hillary said to Oprah about Brexit (the same day) has dissapeared off the face of the earth's media.

Hillary said: "Brexit isn't perfect. But the British have recently had a democratic election where they voted for moderates for the first time...."

Oh wait. That's what she said after the USA-UK-France destroyed Libya's infrastruture and killed its president. My bad.

[ArtAllm]

I'm pretty worried as to how the left will respond to a Trump victory. Their only really argument is "Trump dumb and racist".

The Establishment just cannot believe that they are living in their ideological bubble and have lost any connection to real life. The majority does not accept their idea about "the brave new world", and their power was based on deception, shaming, name calling and intimidation.

Now their ideological bubble is bursting, but they do not get it.

[Atlantis]

The Establishment just cannot believe that they are living in their ideological bubble and have lost any connection to real life. The majority does not accept their idea about "the brave new world", and their power was based on deception, shaming, name calling and intimidation.

Now their ideological bubble is bursting, but they do not get it.

All these ravings against the establishment or the elite are in no way addressing the real problems of the world. The simplistic solutions and hate of the populists can only make things worse. We are seeing the rise of fascism. It is worldwide. The US, Europe, Asia, Australia everywhere. The newly elected president of the Philippines told his people to go out and kill drug addicts. He wants 100,000 killed so Manila bay will turn red and the fish will grow fat. He wants police to kill them on the street. And its not just words. He is rumored to have ordered 1,000 people killed by death squats in the town he used to be the mayor of.

[SpecialOlympian]

lol one of Trump's stage people fucked up at Trump's speech today and instead of his campaign song he walked out to Bruno Mars' "I want to be a millionaire (so fucking bad)."

How apropos.

[Hong Wu]

Lol.

Trump could still lose, a lot hinges on the FBI. Bill meeting with the AG has caused a stir. AG responded by saying she would accept the FBI recommendation. Hillary interviewed by the FBI today?

Here's my takeaway. If they had it in the bag, why meet with Lynch and cause controversy? So they can't be 100% confident Hillary won't be indicted. But Lynch's statement suggests confidence. So they think she's probably okay but aren't completely sure of it.

Ultimately, the left has no intention of taking the right seriously despite the worldwide trend towards the right. Nor would they accept President Trump, it would be riots. The right will never accept Hillary who would also be a lame duck from the start. So we are in a bind either way.

It would actually be best if Hillary were indicted, then Bernie Sanders ran and lost. At least that way the left has a coherent dialogue instead of pretending that Hillary isn't corrupt.

[Igor Antunov]

The novelty of Trump and the other candidate have worn off. Why are American election campaigns so stupidly long? What can you do in so many months that you can't do in a few weeks?