[Kaiserschmarrn]

It seems preemptive to speak of a trend. There may be a spike, although from what I've seen so far the evidence isn't strong (which obviously doesn't mean that it doesn't exist). What was the rate of attacks prior to whenever the newspapers and officials picked up on this? How many of the attacks mentioned in the OP have been verified?

[Glen]

20% increase on the first two weeks of July compared with the same period in 2015

... we are seeing an increase in reports of hate crime incidents to True Vision, the police online hate crime reporting site. This is similar to the trends following other major national or international events. In previous instances, crime levels returned to normal relatively quickly but we are monitoring the situation closely.

I could not find a link for raw data. I was referring to a possible trend from 2013 when the Calais jungle formed?

[Albert]

With national sentiments being suppressed by the government by "hate crime" legislation and "political correctness" enforced by state system. It is no surprise that after Brexit, signaling that such measures had be challenged and hampered towards EU migrants people will lash at easter European immigrants.

These prejudices had existed before, just now people felt legitimacy in expressing them. One can only imagine what boils down inside in British people towards non-European migrants.

This just shows how much of a construct and unnatural the whole "multicultural society" is. Without tremendous effort of authoritarian state measures the whole construction will collapse and with it cohesion of society until things naturally work themselves out and order will come about again. Mainly do to the fact most migrants will leave unable to withstand harassment and isolation. In that case government can only intervene by making this process more civil by such measures as deportation. This will prevent things escalating into violence.

These are things to come in the future, as sooner or late the unnatural and unrealistic state of affairs of multicultural construction will collapse. I hope only Britain will have good leadership at that time to govern society through such period. If you will have progressive dreamers at that point as you have now, they will only make matters worse.

For all this we have to give credit not to right wingers or wrasist or xenophobia or whatever other imaginary boogey man that the establishment likes to scapegoat. But the progressive social engineers themselves. Who have created this state of affairs in hopes to establish some sort of multicultural utopia. For god knows what reason.

[Glen]

These prejudices had existed before ... One can only imagine what boils down inside in British people towards non-European migrants.

I am going to push back on this.

Prior to the Arab spring, the most common xenophobic issues I heard of were street fights breaking out between Pakistani and Indian communities. Their differences apparently stem from the Indo-Pakistan wars, and it would flare up in certain UK streets whenever India and Pakistan disagreed on some issue in the news.

To be honest, most "natives" (Normans, Franks, Saxons, etc.) seemed comfortably accustomed to the steady inflow of Commonwealth migrants that started in 1945. I suspect the current EU immigration issue stems from job protectionism between the incumbent tradesmen, because I think contracting tradesmen rely on their social networks for job security, and that network or work culture may have been collectively threatened by cheaper continental labour.

Disclaimer: Pure speculation drawn from random observations, but never the less a sincere hypothesis.

[Albert]

We can only draw certain conclusion from when political correctness, or others such measures, are no longer enforced to artificially continue prompting multiculturalism and allow things to develop naturally.

From my experience there is prejudice existent in every people of any nation. British people do not differ in this regard to any other people on this planet. One has to only observe how society and people function, where there is no government enforcement of multicultural ideal and social affairs function naturally in society.

That is where my speculation is derived from. That is from cross examination with other societies.

Good example is post-Soviet collapse and ethnic relation between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Where through similar state measures as in Britain now, like political correctness, ethnic tensions did not exist in the region. When such measure were no longer observed situation in the Caucasus region between Armenians and Azerbaijani naturally turned into open ethnic conflict. In turn reigniting some old "forgotten" fudes. As prior their coexistance was artificially maintained even though there were historically unresolved issues that had to be settled since WW1. Especially regarding territorial claims.

Now people who lived as neighbours in their day to day lives, can no longer live together in the same settlements and have partition themselves in that region.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh_War

[Kaiserschmarrn]

@Glen I don't have time now, but I'll look this up. If I remember correctly crime reporting has been going up in the last few years, and this has been attributed to successfully encouraging people to report crimes, or at least the authorities/organsations seem to think that it has significantly contributed.

I wouldn't be surprised if certain incidents had the effect of temporarily leading to more crimes (e.g. it could have happened with Lee Rigby), I'm not sure about the extent though.

[Atlantis]

Take for instance the rate of attacks against refugees in Austria, Switzerland and Germany.

Yes, but that's not what we are talking about. We are talking about EU migration. The UK didn't take a million refugees last year. That you get some problems with that is to be expected. The point is that EU immigration is not seen as a Problem in Germany as it is in the UK, not even by the AfD.

And please spare us the rant about the Luegenpresse. The far-right doesn't mind lies. In fact it's lies are far more grotesque than any biased reporting the mainstream media my be guilty of. There is no absolute objectivity, it's just a matter of knowing which bias your media has to make the mental adjustment.

[layman]

It's the hordes of Africans and Asians people should be worried about, not some Polish plumbers.

You mean all the ‘commonwealth brothers’ that brexiters want to invite intead of euopeans?

Now, May is going to use EU immigrants as bargaining chip in her talks with the EU.

She has said (several times) that existing EU migrants may only have problems in their host country’s do not reciprocate. There is nothing to worry about for existing EU migrants in the UK.

[Atlantis]

She has said (several times) that existing EU migrants may only have problems in their host country’s do not reciprocate.

She has repeatedly refused to give guarantees on the future status of current EU immigrants in the UK on the grounds that that would depend on the negotiations with the EU. Ie., she is using EU immigrants as bargaining chip. Not one of the continental leaders I have heard have made any such conditions.

[layman]

Not one of the continental leaders I have heard have made any such conditions.

Correct. Not one of the European leaders have guranteed that British citizens can stay .....

Personally I would prefer she did but wanting a 'like for like' isnt that unreasonable ...

[Glen]

wanting a 'like for like' isnt that unreasonable ...

This is facetious, but never the less: would a 1:1 ratio of incoming and outgoing workers between UK and EU be 'like for like'?

You mean all the ‘commonwealth brothers’ that brexiters want to invite intead of euopeans?

Commonwealth brothers are not replacing European brothers, but treated as equals: like for like

[Atlantis]

Correct. Not one of the European leaders have guranteed that British citizens can stay .....

Not true, the German vice chancellor even talked of allowing double nationality for British citizenship to make it easier for them to stay in Germany after Brexit. That means a lot because Germans have always been very reluctant about allowing double nationality since they consider that a person needs to make up his/her mind about his/her loyalties.

Anyways, you are just playing with words. That doesn't change the fact that nobody on the continent wants to get rid of British expats, while the UK referendum was won on the understanding that EU immigrants would have to go.

It's not up to EU leaders to show that they are not against British expats. It's up the British leaders to finally come clear and say what they want.

Don't try to confuse the matter.

[layman]

Commonwealth brothers are not replacing European brothers, but treated as equals: like for like

I dont believe in equality. Europeans are far better as migrants to the UK than Nigerians or Pakistanis. There is massively less cultural gap and they are much better educated.

People who think they are equal are generally religious fanatics. Christians, muslims or uber-liberals.

Not true, the German vice chancellor even talked of allowing double nationality for British citizenship to make it easier for them to stay in Germany after Brexit. That means a lot because Germans have always been very reluctant about allowing double nationality since they consider that a person needs to make up his/her mind about his/her loyalties.

Talked about is not the same. The brits have talked about exact same thing. There is no real problem here unless you want to make one. Noone is getting deported.

Anyways, you are just playing with words. That doesn't change the fact that nobody on the continent wants to get rid of British expats, while the UK referendum was won on the understanding that EU immigrants would have to go.

Not anyone with any power.

It's not up to EU leaders to show that they are not against British expats. It's up the British leaders to finally come clear and say what they want.

Yes it is because they will have no right to be there when we leave. We need to know whether they can stay.

[Frollein]

* Gangs prowling the streets demanding passers-by prove they can speak English

Well, hereabouts, Salafists are prowling the streets shoving the Koran at you and demand you start covering yourself - if they don't stab you for your indecency.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

Yes, but that's not what we are talking about. We are talking about EU migration. The UK didn't take a million refugees last year. That you get some problems with that is to be expected. The point is that EU immigration is not seen as a Problem in Germany as it is in the UK, not even by the AfD.

I'm referring to your opinion that anti-immigration sentiment (what you call "xenophobia") needs to be suppressed. If you were right that having anti-immigration sentiment represented politically by a major or mainstream party leads to more violence against immigrants, we should see a lot more of this in Austria and Switzerland than in Germany, regardless of whether it is refugees or other immigrants. But we don't.

[Baff]

By Glen -  Sat 30 Jul 2016, 13:14

Commonwealth brothers are not replacing European brothers, but treated as equals: like for like

But it isn't like for like.
When our European brothers were trying to kill and enslave us, our Commonwealth brothers were giving their lives and wealth to prevent this.

They aren't equals and personally I don't wish to treat them as such. They are honoured brothers.

F me sideways a German has more rights to live in this country than a Canadian!!!
EU brings me shame.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

I could not find a link for raw data. I was referring to a possible trend from 2013 when the Calais jungle formed?

Data can be found on the True Vision website, although this is not monthly data.

Pdfs (recorded hate crimes per year):
Recorded Hate Crime Data for 2014/15 for England, Wales and Northern Ireland
Recorded Hate Crime Data for 2013/14 for England, Wales and Northern Ireland
Recorded Hate Crime Data for 2012/13 for England, Wales and Northern Ireland
Recorded Hate Crime Data for 2011 for England, Wales and Northern Ireland

Note recording has changed from calendar year to financial year after 2011. There are some caveats mentioned in these reports re comparing numbers year on year.

In summary:
2010: 48,127
2011: 44,361 (-8%)
2012/2013: 41204 (-7%)
2013/2014: 42434 (+3%)
2014/2015: 52371 (+23%)

Regarding the increase in 2014/2015 (note the article only refers to England/Wales data - NI is excluded):

The Home Office said "likely factors" in the increase included improved recording of crime, a greater awareness of hate crime and an improved willingness of victims to come forward.

[...]

Police can only record what they know about, so to truly understand hate crime you have to also look at the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) - the internationally respected rolling programme of interviews with ordinary people.

The CSEW is not without its statistical limitations, but it casts its net far wider than the police and it reports that hate crime has fallen by 28% over the last seven years.
So while the prime minister has tweeted that rising hate crime is unacceptable, it's almost certain that police figures are up because more people are reporting it.
In other words, it is very difficult to argue that we are becoming a nastier nation when the evidence indicates we're becoming increasingly intolerant of hate crime.

To get an idea of monthly variation here is a graph taken from National Hate Crime Data for 2014/15 for England and Wales (page 11).



I think this may be the basis for their statement that certain incidents lead to spikes in hate crime. I'm not so sure how convinced I am by what seems to be an attribution to the run up to the Gaza/Israel conflict, but at any rate it seems unsound to attribute all of any one increase to a single event.

True Vision also records the number of online reports on its website and it has also seen an increase in reporting year on year:
2012/2013: 2957
2013/2014: 3641 (+23%)
2014/2015: 4169 (+15%)
2015/2016: 4764 (+14%)

So overall, the 20% increase compared to the previous period mentioned by the NPCC isn't particularly informative. If we accept that increased awareness has led to an increase in reporting, then we should be careful in attributing all of the increase to the referendum. If we also accept that certain incidents cause an increase in this type of crime, then we also need to consider that there have been several high profile terrorist attacks since the referendum and factor this in.

As a final note, I'm doing here what journalists actually should be doing and are paid for. I'm especially looking at the BBC, publicly financed and mandated to inform/educate.

Edit: Also would this count as racist hysteria today? BBC: Pakistani Daleks

[youtube]C0n88tZQc4Q[/youtube]

[Glen]

To get an idea of monthly variation here is a graph taken from National Hate Crime Data for 2014/15 for England and Wales (page 11).

Thank you.

I think current reports provide insufficient data to perform a retrospective analysis. From the small sample, it could be argued that hate crimes rise before (May'13) the Lee Rigby murder and drop afterwards (Jul'13). Seeking trends in raw data from 1960 would be troubled by changes in police culture and in public reporting methods. This topic probably deserves an academic criminology paper, and that requires funding.

[layman]

I make a big distinction between nasty comments and violence or inciting violence.

My hunch is that only the nasty comments have increased.

It reminds of of this which I read yesterday

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... slim-abuse

Our police barely investigate burglarys these days. Going after nasty comments and racism over social media just isnt a high priority for police. I think really need needs to be the providers themselves doing more. Safe spaces need to be created by private individuals, for private individuals online with freedom of association.