[Igor Antunov]

Seems it doesn't matter, Turkey just issued a major ultimatum to YPG. Turkey says it will attack YPG until they withdraw east of the Euphrates:

Turkish F.M Çavuşoğlu: If YPG doesn't retreat to the east of Euphrates, Turkey will do what's necessary
http://t24.com.tr/haber/disisleri-bakan ... riz,356620


All that territory...

Erdogan: The operation that has started today targets ISIS and YPG

As is custom, US has thrown its useful idiots to the dogs, again:

US official says it will give aircover for #Jarablus offensive in cooperation with Ankara - Hassan Ridha

ERDOGAN: “Our patience ended. We will eliminate all threats in north of #Syria.” "Those who say Turkey will be affected from this op in this or that way; I tell them to think about their own future"

Turkish regulars have entered Syria:




This operation is not aimed at ISIS lol.

[JohnRawls]

Assad and Russians have gotten security gurantees that they wanted already from Turkey.(This wouldn't happen if Turkey wasn't sure that the Russian will not get involved) The kurds are currently the US problem since they made an alliance with them I wonder how the US will be able to justify this and their alliance with the Kurds to the Kurds themselves.

[Igor Antunov]

The hard truth is they don't have to.

Screwed them once, will screw them again.

[Typhoon]

This has always been a concern of mine regarding the Kurdish advances. Manjib and the following Kurdish turn north appears to have been a tipping point for Turkey who after dealing with some barriers (Russia and US) have responded. Turkey appears to be implementing its original security box idea in northern Syria, effectively moving the Turkish border south.

As a NATO member the US was always going to have to pick Turkey but this must still be a bitter moment for the Kurds, the US approach in Syria having been thrown into further shambles. It remains to be seen if there will be sustained conflict between Turkey and the Kurds as the former heads south.

This intervention also poses a dilemma for the government, what happens when there is no longer a buffer of IS between government and Turkish/us backed forces. I am inclined to believe that Russia and Turkey will keep things in line to maintain their own relation (similarly with Iran) but we shall see. It could create a curious contrast depending on which side of Aleppo you are.

[skinster]

[roxunreal]

Hectic times indeed. The regime's brief siege of east Aleppo turned over on its head (though I think the government will break the rebel corridor soon, they've captured a hill overlooking it), the SDF captured Manbij and formed Military councils for Al-Bab and Jarablus, the regime's Hasakah terridory is reduced to a few blocks, the rebels captured Al-Rai again, then now this crazy escalation by Turkey after murky backroom deals between all sides, because the situation in north Aleppo wasn't complicated enough.

I am wondering if the SDF (or YPG to be more precise) will now shift focus on Raqqa.
Another thought crossed my mind, maybe it's a bit of a stretch - I'm wondering about a possibility of an SDF-government deal that would be about the SDF relieving the government pocket in Deir ez-Zor by bypassing/besieging IS-held urban areas of the city, in return for government concessions to the SDF. These could take the form of guaranteeing open supply between Arfin/Sheikh Maqsood and Rojava, or much less likely, in the form of the government leaving some of its holdings in the northeast (the base east of Hasakah, because I doubt they'd ever leave Qamishili). Then again, I have my doubts about whether the government would even want the DeZ siege to be lifted if the SDF is the one to lift it, because it may look bad for Damascus.

But all these developments have overshadowed other major (dare I say historical in the context of this war) developments in Damascus:

1. The regime is kicking ass in East Ghouta, which it will likely reduce to only the urban areas of Douma, Irbin, Jobar and smaller suburbs/villages in between them if this keeps up.



2. The rebels in Darayya seem to have agreed to be evacuated from the pocket completely, by busses, the only problem is that they want to go to Daraa and the regime wants to send them to Idlib.

[Bosnjak]

map of hostile and friendly connections in the War.

[Atlantis]

Turkey has tolerated (supported?) IS in Syria for 3 years. Now, that the Islamists are finally being driven out by the Kurds, Turkey is in a rush to attack the Kurds. The US has used the Kurds to fight IS, now that they are succeeding, the US tells its ally to move back and fight IS elsewhere. The Kurds are really out off luck. They can't even switch allies and turn to the Russians, now that Erdogan has made up with Putin.

If the Turks are invading the North of Syria now, I don't see them pulling back any time soon. Both Turkey and the US are now invading Syria in violation of international law.

[Atlantis]

The Turkish "invasion" was obviously closely coordinated with the US and Moscow was in on it up to a certain point.

Turkey has gone further than promised in Syria, says Moscow

August 26, 2016 KOMMERSANT

Ankara is carrying out a full-scale ground operation in Syria. This format has not been coordinated with Moscow and threatens to undermine the warming of Russian-Turkish relations.

The relations between Moscow and Ankara have been subjected to a new test. The Turkish army, with air support from the U.S.-led coalition, entered Syria on Aug. 24, starting the anti-terrorist operation Euphrates Shield, which was not coordinated with Damascus. By evening, the border town of Jarabulus had been captured from Islamic State.

The Turkish operation was approved by U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, who arrived on a visit to Ankara, while the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed deep concern. The operation in Syria, not coordinated with Moscow, threatens to complicate the process of normalization of bilateral cooperation, which was agreed in St. Petersburg on Aug. 9 by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Not a ground operation, says Turkey

Erdogan announced the beginning of the operation on the morning of Aug. 24, explaining that it was directed against the Islamic State (ISIS) terrorist group and Kurdish YPG (People’s Protection Units) forces, which Ankara also considers to be a terrorist group.

The preparation took several days. As Turkish special forces conducted reconnaissance on the territory of Syria, Turkish tanks and heavy artillery were moved to the border areas.

Could Russia-Turkey relations deteriorate again over Syria?

Following heavy bombardment of Jarabulus (a total of 63 targets were fired at 224 times in the first hours) and a series of air strikes involving aircraft from the U.S.-led international coalition, Syrian Free Army (FSA) troops were able to enter the city and take it under control in a matter of hours.

They did not meet serious resistance: The ISIS militants who were in Jarabulus began to leave the city already on the eve of the operation, and almost completely retreated during its active phase.

Turkey insists that what is happening cannot be considered to be a ground operation: The task is to open a corridor for the armed forces of the moderate Syrian opposition for cleansing Jarabulus from terrorists.

Turkish territory has been repeatedly shelled from the city in recent years.

Surprise for Russia

According to a military source, the Russian special services had information about Turkey's intention to carry out the operation, but its scale was unexpected. "This city could have been taken by a much smaller force; they will not stop in this region and are likely to go further," the source said.

The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed deep concern in connection with the Turkish operation in Syria. "Moscow is [...] especially alarmed by the prospect that the situation in the conflict zone will continue to deteriorate, resulting in greater civilian losses and heightened ethnic tensions between Arabs and Kurds," the ministry said in a statement.

The official Syrian authorities, meanwhile, described the actions of the Turkish forces as an "invasion." The Syrian Foreign Ministry, which called on the UN Security Council to urgently intervene in the situation and to "end the aggression," said in a statement that Syria "condemns the crossing of the Turkey-Syria border by Turkish tanks and armored vehicles towards the Jarabulus area with air cover from the U.S.-led coalition and considers it a flagrant violation of Syrian sovereignty."

Following a visit to Ankara, U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden did not accept these claims, but actively supported the actions of Turkey and made it clear that he regards them as an important step in the fight against ISIS.

An anti-Kurdish operation in disguise

"In the Euphrates Shield operation, Turkey is supporting the moderate Syrian opposition with its tanks, artillery and aircraft," said Alexander Vasilyev, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies in Moscow. "Such a scheme and model has been already used by the Turks."

According to him, the Turks earlier successfully interacted with loyal local Kurds in northern Iraq in the same way. "They set up a network of support centers and military bases at that time," Vasilyev said. "In such a way, Ankara tried to fight the Kurdistan Workers' Party and move this fight from the south-east of Turkey to northern Iraq."

Meanwhile, according to Vasilyev, Turkey's operation is directed against the Kurds, even if it is masquerading as part of the fight against international terrorism.

Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defense think tank, finds it very symbolic that the Euphrates Shield operation coincided with Biden's visit to Ankara.

"Given that the relationship between Ankara and Washington in recent weeks reached a low point, this operation was the ideal opportunity for both sides to divert attention from the issue of exiled Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen and demonstrate that the United States and Turkey remain strategic allies," said Pukhov.

For Moscow, Ankara's operation was an unpleasant surprise, demonstrating that the expectations for a convergence of the countries’ positions on Syria that emerged after the meeting between Putin and Erdogan were premature.

In deciding about the operation in Jarabulus, the Turkish leader has sent a signal that relations with the U.S. remain a priority for him, and he prefers to act in the framework of the antiterrorist coalition led not by Moscow, but Washington.

According to Kommersant's information, in case of aggravation of the situation, the Russian military and diplomats are ready to employ bilateral channels of communication with their Turkish counterparts, as well as express their concerns to the U.S. if necessary.

According to Vladimir Sotnikov, director of the Moscow-based Russia-East-West center, Ankara's actions could seriously affect the process of normalization of bilateral cooperation that was agreed by presidents Putin and Erdogan in St. Petersburg.

"Erdogan is playing his own game and is still on the other side of the conflict," he said.

"On the other side of the conflict?" I guess he means the wrong side.

[Albert]

Russia should get out of this war. It gains nothing in this conflict, I understand if it were colonizing Syria, but otherwise what Russia gains out of it. A pretty naval base that never really is of any use. An ally that we gain what from?

Let Americans and Turks have the mess if Assad falls like there is in Lybia now.

Otherwise Russia plays senseless imperial games like America is doing now.

[Igor Antunov]

It gains a permanent puppet in Latakia. Ideal for projecting interests into middle east and Mediterranean. No reason to get out, this war is not costing Russia excess lives or budget beyond what the ~600 annual military exercises on Russian soil do. Good, natural position for geopolitical and military affairs serving Russian interests.

This is nothing like America's senseless, games with no goal and purpose beyond the immediate.

[JohnRawls]

The Turkish "invasion" was obviously closely coordinated with the US and Moscow was in on it up to a certain point.

Oh please. If Russians weren't fully on it then Turkey would never start this. I think after the airplane debacle with Russia, they will triple check what they can do or can't do in Syria with the russians.

[Igor Antunov]

So called rebel supply road into aleppo:

aka road of certain death. Every truck met an untimely end.

[Atlantis]

It gains a permanent puppet in Latakia. Ideal for projecting interests into middle east and Mediterranean. No reason to get out, this war is not costing Russia excess lives or budget beyond what the ~600 annual military exercises on Russian soil do. Good, natural position for geopolitical and military affairs serving Russian interests.

This is nothing like America's senseless, games with no goal and purpose beyond the immediate.

I agree. Following 15 years of failed US interventions which came at a gigantic cost (6 trn for Iraq only), Russia can pick up the peaces at minimal cost to become for the first time in history a dominant player in the ME. The czars would be proud of Putin.

In addition to its traditionally close relations with Iran and Syria, Russia is now gaining influence with Turkey and Iraq.

The modest cost for deploying forces in Syria should be more than compensated for by arms sales as a result of having demonstrated its capabilities.

But more than anything, Russia will have a say in any gas pipelines going through Syria to supply Golf gas (from Iran or Qatar) to Europe. Adding to its stake in NordStream and the planned TurkStream pipelines. The Russians will have the ability to become a dominant player in the energy business, much to the annoyance of the Americans.

[Albert]

It gains a permanent puppet in Latakia. Ideal for projecting interests into middle east and Mediterranean. No reason to get out, this war is not costing Russia excess lives or budget beyond what the ~600 annual military exercises on Russian soil do. Good, natural position for geopolitical and military affairs serving Russian interests.

This is nothing like America's senseless, games with no goal and purpose beyond the immediate.

Why would Russia want to project anything in Middle East? What do those countries offer? Hashish from Belbaak for roubles? We do not need to have a military base in Syria to have a supply if that, there is already a proud man in Minsk ready to supply anyone who is willing.

Are we going to police the mid east like Americans and tell Arabs what to do? What for? Whocares what they do there? They can establish an all powerful Islamic Caliphate and marry 10 year old girls all they want for all I care. Just don't migrate to where I live.

As far as I can tell, if Russia is not actively colonizing the area there is no point of being there. Resources Russia has aplenty, if we need hashish or something we can trade. Otherwise they can all go to Mecca for all I care.

@Atlantis What say will Russia have in the gas pipeline? Can we run this pipeline through your land? We can do that without war. If Russia does not want to pay the people on who's territory we run the pipeline that is a different story. But is money worth blowing someone up for like this. I don't think so.

Also why does Russia have to create peace there. Again this is imperial ego games. Let them resolve their own affairs like grown up adult they are. So next time they can not scapegoat the west or any other outside nation, when they decide to blow each other up.

[Zionist Nationalist]

Assad is losing the Aleppo battle

[x]

[roxunreal]

The status quo in south-west Aleppo hurts the rebels much more than it does Assad, they can't keep that corridor up forever with pro-gov forces having fire control over it from the hill to the south, without a new and successful offensive by the rebels to secure the surroundings, or elsewhere to thin the government forces, the corridor will fall. Not to mention that it's of very limited use anyway since only one route into Aleppo through the corridor is passable and exposed to SAA artillery and air power.

[Zionist Nationalist]

if Assad wins in Aleppo it will destabilize Turkey even further. Erdogan asked Putin not to bomb the rebels in Aleppo because without Russian airforce Assad army cant do shit win.

[JohnRawls]

Not really. The corridor itself is an airtilery pocket of sorts with or without the Russians. So right now Assad is benefitting from the situation in there. Russian inteligence is far more important then the Russian airstrikes though.

[Bosnjak]

Assads Korridor is also not much broader, then those of the rebels, but the Assad Korridor stretches far longer but also narrow, at Khananser the Rebels have Fire-controle.

here a current map.

http://syria.liveuamap.com/