[Zionist Nationalist]

I know that Hezbollah is in financial trouble now and as long as there is a war they will be busy there and wont touch us

Assad wont win infact he is losing ground right now in Hama and his attacks against the rebels in other areas are failing the rebels are getting alot of support from many countries they wont allow Assad to win or to stay in power after the war.

I dont care about the Islamists ISIS and all those guys they are not a problem for me. Hezbollah and Iran are the problem.

[Bosnjak]

After 5 Years bloody wars, Assad has no Troops, more, even the Iranian Pasdaran and Hezbollah, have also no more troops. With Air Superiority, Artillery Supperiority... he still looses on all fronts
, technical college in Alleppo Assad lost +/- 500 Soldier and dozens of Tanks in the last few days.


Russia has achived its goals:

-Present High-Tech Weapons for Press, (droping old ones).
-deflecting public opinion about the loses in Donetzk, where Russians get massacred
-keeping the Hermin Base

If Damascus falls or not, does Putin not care, because he did not put many Chips on the Table for Syria-Poker, even fewer investment then the West



considering the low oilprices, are Syria and Iraq not realy important, as the hole region lost its importance due to Sybirian and Fracking Oil

[Igor Antunov]

Rebels are effectively cut off in Aleppo again and rebel Hama offensive means nothing, it has already stalled. As with all rebel opportunistic attacks they make headway due to surprise then meet resistance when SAA redeploys. Then they get pushed back slowly (See south Aleppo). Troops from the fallen rebel enclave of Darayya have been deployed around Damascus and that entire area should be cleared up soon.

[Bosnjak]

They marched in just 24h 10km towards Hama, if Hama falls Allepo falls too.

But the Rebels are not nasty enough, ISIS plants every house IEDs, in case of retreating.

[The Sabbaticus]

Kafir holidays.

[Igor Antunov]

To be fair it is advertising one particular resort destination in Syria, which is probably 100x safer than 99% of Mexico.

[Bosnjak]

Assadists again failed an offensive on South Alleppo, because the situation in Assad-Alleppo is also desperate, because of the expensive supply over dustroads, for 1,5 Million, does not work.

The rebels have just to plant IEDs and let them come.

Now is the Tigerforce, an Assad Elite Unit removed from Alleppo to defend Hama.

[Igor Antunov]

Siege of Aleppo is back on:

Now is the Tigerforce, an Assad Elite Unit removed from Alleppo to defend Hama.

No...they were there already, so unless they can teleport instantly, didn't happen.

Tiger Forces are native to Hama and that is their main staging region, there is an armoured contingent moving from Hama city to confront Jaf north of Hama by positioning on strategic hilltops. Rebels there will be checked soon.

[roxunreal]

As with all rebel opportunistic attacks they make headway due to surprise then meet resistance when SAA redeploys.

Yeah but that's not really great for the SAA now is it? It's why it's taking so long for them to clear the rebels in the first place, and once they commit to clearing them from a certain areas, other theatres suffer. The latest example of this is Aleppo - they invested so much into evicting the rebels from the Ramouseh corridor that the rebels gained considerable ground in Hama from which the government will now be evicting them for another few months at least. The Latakia front has also been mostly stalled for weeks if not months. Back when the SAA and allied militias went on that ill fated adventure towards Raqqa, and during the Tadmur offensive before that, they lost the strongholds of Al-Eis, Qarassi and Khan Touman that they had recaptured in south Aleppo when the Russians intervened, and Al Hadher is now on the frontlines again. It's very likely that the rebels will try to blitz it at some time, and given the pro-government Shia/Afghan militia record in south Aleppo, the chance of the rebels capturing it isn't that small. If they capture Al Hadher, the government gains of the grand south Aleppo offensive from last year will be reduced to a strip of minor villages, which is a terrible shame and advantage squandered for the government.

The only theatre that is consistently but slowly going in the government's favor is Rif Dimasq. Darayya could initiate a cascade of rebel-government deals in smaller besieged pockets. Muhammadiyah, a rebel pocket west of Darayya of similar size where a ceasefire has held for some time now, is also in the process of a negotiated rebel evacuation. There is talk about the same being prepared in Madaya and the nearby rebel held valley north-west of Damascus. All the SAA forces there will end up reinforcing the east Ghouta push which is already going quite well without them anyway.

In any case it's no badge of competence for the government to be able to defeat the rebels in a high intensity battle where it commits its best forces while it loses ground elsewhere, it means they cannot project strenght consistently over the main battlegrounds, but only selectively to the most high priority objective at a given time.





Hama is far from endangered, but it's good to remember how easily Idlib fell. Yeah, it was almost surrounded, but so is Daraa, yet due to heavy fortifications and a layered defense it still stands in governemnt hands. I doubt Hama has a layered city defense, most of its defense would be checkpoints and possibly berms in the countryside. Not that I think Hama will fall, 90% not, but there's still that 10%, and we all know how unpredictable this war is.

The main fighting elements in the conflict against IS are the Iranian/Iraqi/Syrian governments and associated militia.

The SDF has by far had the most negative impact on IS in Syria up to now, it's not really even comparable with the government which has only captured Tadmur, Qaryatayn and surrounding villages, pus more vollages around Kuweires airbase. The SDF on the other hand not only captured much more land, but screwed up IS supply lines to Turkey and Iraq in the process, and is effectively the most responsible for ISIL's attrition in Syria. In the future however, the SAA and allied militias will be doing most of the rest of the clearing.

[Igor Antunov]

Hama currenly involves hundreds of fighters on all sides. Aleppo has tens of thousands tied up. It is the pivotal front. Rebels aren't going to threaten supply lines in Aleppo via Hama.

Unless this hama offensive is directly sponsored by Turkey and thousands of Islamists are actually involved (what happened during idlib offensive), it is going to run out of steam fast. In fact if it is just 600 JaF, they are in danger of being enveloped and destroyed having advanced this far without securing their lines.

[Igor Antunov]

SDF is collapsing as a coalition organization. Arab fighters ditched the YPG, sided with Turkey and took 5 villages in the middle of Kurdish held territory.

[Bosnjak]

Tiger force commander, dead, after beeing shot down by a TOW.

It is unpossible with a TOW, either the rebels tuned the laserbeem for Air-Defense to be 2-3 meter broad or they got Igla1. Because in a game you need 100-1000 Tows to hit a heli even if you can airburst them.

They can claim what they want they got somewhere Manpads

3 Helicopters in 3 Weaks, not bad. 1 Russian 1 south of Allepo and 1 Hama

[roxunreal]

Absolutely no proof that it was Suheil al-Hassan aboard apart from that it was a French-made Gazelle chopper which, despite being the same type that Al-Hassan used for transportation, Syria still has at least two dozen in service.

(this twitter account is bullshit, but the pics are from the vid of the downed helicopter)

As for the SDF, only two minor Arab groups defected. The first one is Liwa al-Tahrir, about 50 defected fighters, which is numerically insignificant. As for the second group, the one that is controling the villages, I'm not even sure if they are talking about the Liwa Thuwar al-Raqqa when they are refering to Liwa Ahrar Raqqa, the later one being the one reported to have defected (edit: they're NOT the same, again a minor faction). By far the most important Arab group allied with the SDF is the Shammar tribe, which are militarily organized as the Al-Sanadid Forces.

The government is continuing to lose villages in north Hama. Ma'an and Kawkab are under rebel assault.

[Atlantis]

Whatever happened to that Turkish advance and their Syrian proxies? Looks like they got stuck. There haven't been any clashes with IS and they haven't dislodged the Kurds either. Perhaps the Americans have called them off.

[Bosnjak]

The Rebels should after the War, introduce Election, every rebel group will get Votes for the next 20 Years, those who you freed those you elect, like ANC in South-Africa.

This is the scenario with the fewest possibility to have a Afghanistan after Najibullah removal.


A realistic Scenario Assad will ever rule over hole Syria is unpossible, he holds just 25%, allthough 1 Year excessive Russian Carpet Bombing.

[Igor Antunov]

Assad holds most urbanized territory and ~70% of the population.

[roxunreal]

Liwa Ahrar Raqqa leader releases video denying reports of clashes/defections from SDF

(pro-government twitter account, but probably the most unbiased one)

A good recent map of Hama


Ma'an is still in government hands, no direct rebel attack yet as far as I know. This village is Alawite, so I really hope that the inhabitants are far away from it just in case.

The mountain Jabal Zayn al-Abidin is a very strategic location south of the rebel front lines. It rises 600 meters above the surrounding terrain and offers excellent fire control over the area, including Hama city. I don't expect that the rebels will capture it, but who knows. In any case it won't be an easy fight. The mountain is home to a small Shia shrine.

[roxunreal]

Pro-gov forces captured the Artillery base in Aleppo this morning, besieging it again completely.



I wonder if the rebels will continue to push in this area or try another offensive elsewhere in Aleppo...though every other elsewhere is a heavily urban area, except Mallah which is way too flat and open for the rebels anyway. But they've probably exhausted their offensive pool considerably during the SW aleppo battle.

[Typhoon]

The situation in Aleppo appears to have returned from a state of de-facto siege to complete siege according to government sources today with recapture of the armaments college and positions to the south. The rebels Hama offensive appears to have run out of steam, as a diversion or as an initiative it does not seem to have worked. Much like in Lattakia recently I expect these gains to be rolled back over the coming weeks, though I expect the focus will remain on Aleppo as it is vital for the government to claim the city.

Whatever happened to that Turkish advance and their Syrian proxies? Looks like they got stuck.

I heard news that they have set a limit on southern expansion to the river , goal initially is to complete control of the Syrian side of the border. It will be interesting to see if Turkey actually bothers now Kurd's have been given a strong message.

It is unpossible with a TOW, either the rebels tuned the laserbeem for Air-Defense to be 2-3 meter broad or they got Igla1. Because in a game you need 100-1000 Tows to hit a heli even if you can airburst them.

Its possible since the the helicopter was flying/hovering low and slow. Definitely not an Igla, Igla makes a sustained noise before launch as the detector cools down, then a distinct whine during launch.

The SDF has by far had the most negative impact on IS in Syria up to now, it's not really even comparable with the government which has only captured Tadmur, Qaryatayn and surrounding villages, pus more vollages around Kuweires airbase. The SDF on the other hand not only captured much more land, but screwed up IS supply lines to Turkey and Iraq in the process, and is effectively the most responsible for ISIL's attrition in Syria. In the future however, the SAA and allied militias will be doing most of the rest of the clearing.

The SDF has done well in Syria, but they cannot compete with the Syrian, Iraqi and Iranian governments in terms of limiting the spread of IS and ultimately destroying them, by geography alone if nothing else.

IS supply lines were destroyed most effectively by the Russian air-force when it pulled the plug on the caliphates oil operations. This oil was traded through Kurdish territory despite hostilities.

[Igor Antunov]

~30 days after rebels kicked off the SA offensive, it has been reversed and at huge cost to them. 100 APC's/tanks and hundreds of fighters killed. This leaves an opportunity for SAA to keep pushing against a depleted force.