[Rugoz]

The media, exhibit A from Politifact:

Why? Those are different statements.

[baltwade]

Is that according to the RCP map that still includes polls from a month ago?

Edit: Or months, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5950.html. They are giving Clinton New Mexico and haven't updated their polls there since May.

Similarly, RI hasn't been updated since the beginning of September. I can find polls online saying that Trump is currently winning in those states, and if he takes either one he would win the presidency according to the RCP map.

No, that's not based on the RCP map. The RCP shows certain states as being "toss-ups" when they're not. Georgia and Arizona are not toss-ups. They'll go for Trump. Similarity, New Hampshire, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan aren't toss-ups. They'll go to Clinton. North Carolina and Nevada are just barely toss-ups. They're more like "hard leaners". The only real toss-ups are Florida, Ohio, and Iowa.

So that puts Clinton at 272 (Trump getting 1 electoral vote from Maine) looking to pickup another easy 6 with Nevada and about equal to slightly better than equal odds of picking up either Florida or Ohio or both.

Trump on the other hand sits at 192 with no real plausible way of getting to 270.

[colliric]

Is that according to the RCP map that still includes polls from a month ago?

Edit: Or months, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5950.html. They are giving Clinton New Mexico and haven't updated their polls there since May.

Similarly, RI hasn't been updated since the beginning of September. I can find polls online saying that Trump is currently winning in those states, and if he takes either one he would win the presidency according to the RCP map.

The 272 number is apparently from the No Contested States RCP map.... This is where their "states in doubt" are assigned to the one leading no matter what the lead is. Which isn't a clear winning result anyway because Trump was on 266 last I checked it. In otherwords the election is too close to call.

[colliric]

No, that's not based on the RCP map.

Yes it is.... It's this one:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... s_ups.html

The No Toss Ups(No contested States) map.

Clinton 272
Trump 266

Too close to call.

[Pants-of-dog]

Part of me hopes Trump will win, so I can laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh.

[Hong Wu]

The 272 number is apparently from the No Contested States RCP map.... This is where their "states in doubt" are assigned to the one leading no matter what the lead is. Which isn't a clear winning result anyway because Trump was on 266 last I checked it. In otherwords the election is too close to call.

I think Trump is winning If he takes New Mexico or Rhode Island, he should win according to RCP, and they haven't updated New Mexico in four months or Rhode Island in almost a month now. I think they're running scared

[LV-GUCCI-PRADA-FLEX]

^ Poll from 9/1 shows Hillary up by 14 whole points in New Mexico.

Honestly can't wait for these debates. It will be a lot of people's first real exposure to Hillary in terms of her policies. Many Bernie supporters that are undecided assume that Hillary doesn't share that many of the policy objectives that Bernie did. Meanwhile Trump shares a lot of his policies objectives with dictators and Putin.

[Hong Wu]

A month old registered voters poll brah.

[LV-GUCCI-PRADA-FLEX]

The polls are bullshit! (Unless Trump is winning)

[SpecialOlympian]

Hong Wu, how does it feel to know that just by knowing the name of Egypt's previous president you are already more knowledgeable about foreign policy and world affairs than the man you're voting for?

Also why do all the Trump supporters think they're voting for Trump? They're really voting for Shadow President Pence. Lol if you think Trump is going to do anything besides fly around in Air Force 1 and make the Secret Service pay to sleep in his hotels.

[baltwade]

The 272 number is apparently from the No Contested States RCP map.... This is where their "states in doubt" are assigned to the one leading no matter what the lead is. Which isn't a clear winning result anyway because Trump was on 266 last I checked it. In otherwords the election is too close to call.

The 272 number is not from any RCP map. I'm not saying that RCP doesn't have a map that use it, but that's not where it comes from.

272 is the number of electoral votes that you get when you add up all the states that have a historic trend of voting for the Democratic nominee and that are also showing Clinton leading by more than the margin of error. These are basically "safe" Clinton votes.

Basically this is almost the exact same advantage that Obama had against Romney going into the 2012 election, where Obama had 259 "safe" electoral votes. The only difference in Virginia. Virginia flipping to a blue state has really hurt the Republicans. Without Virginia, a Republican win is almost impossible. Not only do they have to win every toss-up state, but they have to steal a "safe" Democratic state or two.

[SpecialOlympian]

Trump is clearly a strong administrator who spends a lot of time devising plans and then adhering to them in a way that makes them play out as expected. He has demonstrated this ability multiple times. I'd say Hillary is pretty fucked.

Say what you want about Trump, but I have faith in him. He is knowledgeable, and when he encounters a subject that he lacks expertise in he immediately rectifies that through careful study. While he is correcting his ignorance, he aids himself by seeking out knowledgeable professionals who can supplement his expertise with their own. I fully expect a rational, thorough, and competent administrator like Trump to sweep the election and flip the entire map red.

[Rancid]

Trump tells it like it is; the establishment can't take it!

[Igor Antunov]

So Trump has Bavarian origins actually. That explains a lot.

65% of Americans have German origins. That explains a lot; like why there is a minimum standard and the country isn't a shit hole like Mexico down south.

[Godstud]

According to the 2005 American Community Survey, 50 million Americans have German ancestry. German Americans represent 17% of the total U.S. population, not 65%. The ones with Russian ancestry are the ones you need to get rid of, since nothing good ever comes from Russians.

[Donna]

^ Poll from 9/1 shows Hillary up by 14 whole points in New Mexico.

Honestly can't wait for these debates. It will be a lot of people's first real exposure to Hillary in terms of her policies. Many Bernie supporters that are undecided assume that Hillary doesn't share that many of the policy objectives that Bernie did. Meanwhile Trump shares a lot of his policies objectives with dictators and Putin.

Bernie supporters, especially men, are probably indifferent to Putin and "dictators". Many are undoubtedly fond of socialist dictators like Castro or Chavez.

The only people who believe in liberal democracy today are the suits.

[Zagadka]

I've kinda paused both sides for the past couple of weeks, until at least the first debate. The mud slinging on both sides is worse than useless, it destroys any objective view of policies, and we don't know how they can handle issues until we see 'em under the lights.

[Decky]

Clinton will send her double to the debate. She won't be able to stand up for an hour and a half.

[Zagadka]

All part of the stupid I'm trying to avoid

[Decky]

She can't even give a 15 min interview without coughing her guts up Zag. You really think she will give the body double a day off and go in person to a debate lasting a hour and a half?