[roxunreal]

Well Assad sure is taking his sweet time in north Hama while the rebels took more villages to the east of their salient, thus widening it to prevent the government carving its own salient through it and (semi)besieging it, like the government did in the south of the east Ghouta pocket earlier this year, for example.

Meanwhile pro-government sources are raving about some ludicrous Al-Bab offensive that's imminent Al-Bab? Now? While they need to at least take a somewhat significant neighborhood of east Aleppo to have at least something to show regarding the grandiosely announced Aleppo offensive. While they have to defend from rebel attacks near the Golan. While jihadists are basically strolling through government-held north Hama villages a few days in a row now. I hope Al-Bab is some kind of misdirection, for the government's sake, it does have a habit of stabbing itself in the back when it has the momentum.

[The Sabbaticus]

What are the developments surrounding Al-Nusra? What has transpired since their name change to Jabah Fatah Al-Sham and subsequent delisting as a terrorist organization? And whatever happened to Khorasan? And is Al Qaida still directly involved in Syria?

[GandalfTheGrey]

Al Qaida - as in "Al Qaeda central" - as in Al-Zawahiri and a handful of loyal followers holed up in northern Pakistan who spend most of their time hiding - were obviously never directly involved in Syria. They're not directly involved in pretty much anything except dodging drones

[Decky]

And cashing their paychecks Mossad deliver to them once a month.

[Bosnjak]

In this conflict everybody has his Team.

the Leftis, love Kurds,
Ultra-Right Assad,
the pro western Rebels.
and the violence lovers ISIS

[pikachu]

Btw I think there might be another reason why the government seems to be okay with losing more ground in north Hama while focusing on Aleepo - it's because of who it's losing that ground to. There is no question that the primary driver of the north Hama offensive is Jund al Aqsa plus a number of other hardline groups like JFS, TIP, etc. Jund al Aqsa and many others from that list are on the US terror group list and will most certainly be excluded from any successful ceasefire agreement which the US might potentially reach with Russia in the future. Therefore, the SAA will have plenty of time to reverse these gains, even if a successful nationwide ceasefire comes in effect. In fact, the whole Idlib agglomeration will most likely end up being excluded from the ceasefire due to the absolute predominance of the hardline groups within it.

Aleppo city is another story - there are many various types of rebel groups in Aleppo city, and also due to the very prominent and symbolic nature of the Aleppo city conflict, the US and Turkey will almost certainly insist on including it in the ceasefire deal. So you've got to focus on it now, before any ceasefire deal is reached, because later will be too late. In a backhanded way this also serves the US interests, because the US wants to convey to as many rebel factions as possible that the only way out of the conflict is through a negotiated settlement, not through jihad. As long as they refuse to turn on JFS and continue to walk around with signs saying "we don't want aid, we want to end the siege", as far as the US is concerned they just haven't gotten the memo yet. So they need to be taught a lesson first and foremost. Trying to teach any lessons to jihadist nutcases like Jund al Aqsa is a lost cause, they will just have to be eliminated in the end, but the US is still hoping that Fateh Halab factions can be brought to reason. So I have little doubt that the US is pretty well on board with the latest SAA Aleppo offensive.

[Igor Antunov]

Fighting in Aleppo.

As for Hama, the goal may simply be to hold hama city, then surround the rebels later while they're engaged near city.

In Aleppo one can see SAA is using Mallah tactics. Overrun rebel position, wait for counter offensive, retreat, blast rebel concentration to bits with airpower and artillery, then move in again and continue. It is the only way to get them out of the woodwork, as you can see in video, the urban fighting is decidedly urban. The city is comprised of cement and strone structures, a defenders dream. So you make them come out in force and confront you.

And ISIS gold currency is in full circulation.

[GandalfTheGrey]

Any substance to these claims by Al Nusra do you think?

An unnamed senior al-Nusra Front commander told journalist Jürgen Todenhöfer that the group, considered to be terrorist by the United States, Russia, as well as the United Nations, has received weapons, particularly the BGM-71 TOW anti-tank missiles, from the US, German weekly news magazine Focus reported.

Read more: https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/2016 ... siles.html

[roxunreal]

One interesting detail: the purple tip of the government salient northeast of Hama is the village of Abu Dali, and it's some sort of neutral "free zone" for trade between the government and various armed groups, despite the local clan chief being pro-government.

http://english.enabbaladi.net/archives/ ... perations/

It's kind of reminiscent of Fikret Abdić's Autonomous Province of Western Bosnia.

I'm sure the regime is for now ok with losing more villages in Hama as long as the defensive ring around Hama holds, as well as long as the rebels don't directly endanger toe road to Aleppo.

[pikachu]

Any substance to these claims by Al Nusra do you think?

The interview itself sounds sketchy for more than one reason. Normally, Nusra leaders would want to play down any indirect help they might be receiving from the US. This guy not just emphasized it, he actually listed Israel among the benefactors as well - which is pretty haram.

But the substance is accurate. One way or another, Nusra obviously benefited a lot from any help that the US provided to the "opposition" as a whole.

[Igor Antunov]

This is why Hama is on the back burner.

Assad (Syrian Army) is assembling 10,000 troops for final assault on Aleppo

An army of 10,000 troops is amassing outside of the besieged city of Aleppo as the government prepares for an unprecedented assault on rebel-held areas of the city after a week of airstrikes and artillery fire has left the city burning and hundreds dead.

According to senior government sources speaking to CNN, the US is now considering how to react to the latest move by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against opposition forces in eastern Aleppo.

The troops, which have been gathering for the last week and are believed to include as many as 3,000 soldiers from Iran, are reportedly preparing for a final ground assault as al-Assad looks to crush rebel positions in eastern Aleppo and retake the strategically important city.

https://news.vice.com/article/assad-is- ... -on-aleppo?

Ignore the rest of the article, just jihadist apologist drivel. I also De-propagandized the headline.

[starman2003]

https://news.vice.com/article/assad-is- ... -on-aleppo?

The attack is underway. Hope it doesn't turn out to be a Stalingrad for them. What if the rebels crack and the government takes eastern Aleppo? Will that mean the end is finally in sight? Hope so, but who knows....

[Igor Antunov]

It would mean tens of thousands of SAA troops in the immediate area would be free to launch offensives into Idlib or ISIS territory.

[starman2003]

It would mean tens of thousands of SAA troops in the immediate area would be free to launch offensives into Idlib or ISIS territory.

Probably wishful thinking, but if eastern Aleppo falls soon, it might demoralize the rebels, enabling the SAA and its allies to wrap up the campaign rather quickly. Aided by plenty of Russian airstrikes of course.

[Political Interest]

While I do not want the rebels to win it is very hard to watch the little children screaming on camera. I wish Russia and Syria would stop the bombardment. It achieves nothing.

God is watching us all.

[Decky]

You can't clear American trained, armed and funded Jihadists out of a town without bombing it PI. When you make an omelette eggs will be broken.

[Igor Antunov]

Or more appropriately when you funnel tens of thousands of armed religious extremists into a country people will die.

[pikachu]

Given the recent developments, the Castello road part of the Russo-American agreement looks pretty obsolete.

While I do not want the rebels to win it is very hard to watch the little children screaming on camera. I wish Russia and Syria would stop the bombardment.

That's very noble of you.

Yet how come you don't seem to wish that their parents would perhaps let their kids out of this voluntary hell? You do know that everyone who wants to leave East Aleppo can do so at any time, right? The kids who are still in East Aleppo are there because their parents wouldn't let them leave - that is the one and only reason they are still there. Consider this fact. Their parents have chosen this fate for themselves and they have made their kids into hostages of that political choice. It is they, who, in my view, bare the primary responsibility for what is happening to their children, not the Syrian regime or anybody else.

Consider also the fact that they have had 5 years to leave East Aleppo. Five fucking years to get your shit and move to a safer place, or at least move your family to a safer place if you want to fight. They knew that the encirclement was coming literally years in advance. This was not a blitz that caught anyone by surprise, the encirclement was coming slowly and gradually. The ones who stayed under those circumstances are freaks who knew perfectly well what was coming and stayed, and they made their families stay as well. They knew exactly what their wives and kids would be subjected to, yet they didn't let them off to a safer place. Why?

Does their pride just not allow them to send their family into regime-controlled territory? Fine! You don't even need to sacrifice much of your pride, really. Send them off to refugee camps in Turkey or Jordan, to Kurdish controlled territory, or just to a safer place within the rebel-held Syria. There are so many options. Women, children, and elderly who do not bare arms are not militants and can go anywhere within Syria and even to refugee camps outside of Syria. Lucky ones can even go all the way to Western Europe apparently. Even now that the encirclement is in place, that is still accurate. They have plenty of options. What exactly would they lose by choosing one of those options, other than a tiny bit of pride and an opportunity to parade the wounded kids in front of cameras in a pathetic attempt to elicit foreign intervention? If the militants need their wives to support their "home front"/local economy while the men fight, they could still at least send the kids away. If you care about your family - at least move your elderly and your kids to a safer place, preferably together. They contribute literally nothing to your war effort anyway, they are probably more of a drain on your resources than anything. Have them settle somewhere in Idlib, in Rojava, in Lebanon, or in Lattakia - depending on how much pride you're willing to sacrifice. They'll be so much better off in any of those places or any other place you could possibly think of. All of the places listed above have one or another type of support services for elderly and for kids, especially refugees. They're not going to starve to death there, even if they have no connections. No, it probably won't be easy, but in any case, it would be insane to suggest that their prospects of survival in any of those places is actually lower than in the besieged East Aleppo - I don't think anyone will make that argument. If that was true, why would anyone be whining about East Aleppo at all?

It is the Syrian government which doesn't have very many options when it comes to this. It has to bomb the rebel-held Aleppo, or it might never win this war. And bombing will inevitably result in civilian casualties. The option to simply cease bombing or to carry out only the very precise and targeted strikes in attempt to minimize civilian casualties would come at a very heavy price for the regime. And no matter how accurate you're trying to be, as long as you are bombing, you'll still end up killing hundreds of civilians at a time - look at what the US did in Manbij for example, and plenty of other places. Furthermore, you could easily argue that ceasing the bombing effort would only prolong the war and thus actually increase the civilian suffering in the long term - i.e. the same argument which the US used in the atomic bombing of Japan and continues to use to this day. (Do you want a humanitarian justification for your most brutal and violent acts? There you go! You can always find one, trust me.)

Bottom line - the rebels have and always had plenty of options for where to send their kids. The Syrian air force has far less options for where to drop and not to drop their bombs. If you want the children of East Aleppo to stop screaming on camera - please come to Syria and strangle their parents, then drive the kids out of there. If you can't do that - just turn off the TV.

[Typhoon]

Nice to see some progress in Syria while I have been away, the governments offensive in Aleppo appears to be yielding results. While we can expect the fight to be difficult due to the terrain favoring the defender we must consider that the opposition have no way to reinforce the city. The conditions for the Aleppo defenders are in this respect far worse than Stalingrad, that city was never truly cut off. Aleppo like Damascus is being strangled. The only question is how long that takes, the use of heavier munitions suggests the government/Russia are trying for a Palmyra rather than a Damascus.

I'm sure the regime is for now ok with losing more villages in Hama as long as the defensive ring around Hama holds, as well as long as the rebels don't directly endanger toe road to Aleppo.

Indeed, Hama is a distraction.

While I do not want the rebels to win it is very hard to watch the little children screaming on camera. I wish Russia and Syria would stop the bombardment. It achieves nothing.

It is a shame that the Aleppo case cannot be resolved in the manner we are seeing in say Qadsiyah, these exchanges have to be commended in my view as a good way to resolve the conflict. Sadly despite their untenable military situation in Aleppo the rebels and it must be said their foreign supporters do not wish to give up the city as it would be a heavy political blow, perhaps fatal. As such the only way is to bomb them out, not pleasant viewing but its unfortunately the only way forward and it is working now they have isolated the city.

[roxunreal]

My take on the Aleppo offensive by the pro-gov forces is that, at least for the immediate future, it has two objectives:

1. Widen the government corridors in the north and south, thus preventing any chance of the siege being broken again and securing the western half of Aleppo at the same time. This has mostly already been achieved, especially in the north. In the south it's a bit harder because of the heavily urban areas in question, but perhaps they'll push the other way towards Al-Hikma school

2. Pick off outlying less urban parts of the east Aleppo pocket, such as industrial districts and somewhat more open/isolated areas like farms and separate suburbs, especially in the north and south. Some of the areas in question are Sheikh Lutfi and Sheikh Saeed in the south, the area around the Islamic Cemetery in the east (Talat al-Barakat and eastern Jabal Badro), and Owaija and basically everything north of Haydariyah district, in the north.

The pocket may end up looking something like this:


This will reduce the pocket to mostly dense urban areas and the government will have something to show for its offensive. From there on they either play the long game, slowly starve them out and shrink the pocket and hope the rebels surrender, or basically decide to flatten large areas of the city and get ready for large numbers of their own casualties in an all out assault.