China has made it clear (not surprisingly), DON'T TOUCH North Korea. US-led power fading away - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#14832169
China has made it clear, it would remain neutral if the US attacks the North as revenge, but would definitely interfere if US/South Korea seek to destroy Kim's regime. Sounds reasonable huh? Yes, seemingly.
Let me tell you what I got from this message, if North Korea strikes first, no doubt US would take action, and in turn Kim would attack South Korea as well as Japan, easily. This would inevitably lead the US/South Korea (and Japan possibly) as a joint force to defeat Kim. What happens then is the second Korean War: Chinese army takes place.
As a result, that's clearly a warning to USA, only: DO NOT THINK ABOUT ANYTHING ON NORTH KOREA, even if it strikes first.

And it's totally clear North Korea has been the puppet of China, who offer 90% of trade and aids to the North including the development of weapons. It's stupid to expect China to "curb" the North. From China's perspective, the stronger North Korea's becomes militarily, the better for China to challenge the US-led western world.

Since both China & North Korea are constantly getting stronger, if the US is unable to defeat or even stop them, it'll NEVER. The US is no longer the superpower as it used to be, when it was inconceivable for either China or North Korea to send direct threat like that.

What do you guys think about the future?
#14832175
Lots of possible scenarios. Everyone, including myself, have reverted to Nationalistic arguments. We forgot about economics which is the key to everything today. I think China might be more interested it what benefits them economically. That is siding with the West against North Korea. I think they will make a deal, behind public view, to sell out North Korea as long as the US promises to not send in permanent troops. What else they get from the deal will slowly become apparent by future events.
Of course, any thing is possible. China may have developed a next generation defense system and are eager to draw the US into a trap. Who knows?

Edit: I can't actually think how the US would gain much from destroying North Korea. China will just install someone else. The great game still requires their destruction however, unless they agree to abandon their nuclear program. Of course that would just create another Iran scenario.
Last edited by One Degree on 12 Aug 2017 00:02, edited 2 times in total.
#14832177

The Pentagon has prepared a specific plan for a preemptive strike on North Korea's missile sites should President Trump order such an attack.

Two senior military officials — and two senior retired officers — told NBC News that key to the plan would be a B-1B heavy bomber attack originating from Andersen Air Force Base in Guam.

Pairs of B-1s have conducted 11 practice runs of a similar mission since the end of May, the last taking place on Monday. The training has accelerated since May, according to officials. In an actual mission, the non-nuclear bombers would be supported by satellites and drones and surrounded by fighter jets as well as aerial refueling and electronic warfare planes.

The target set, multiple sources say, would be approximately two dozen North Korean missile-launch sites, testing grounds and support facilities. The sources told NBC News they feel confident they have accurately identified a set of relevant targets. They say that the months-long standoff between North Korea and the Trump administration, together with North Korean activity and testing of a wide variety of missiles since January, has helped them to refine their understanding of North Korea's web of missile facilities.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/north-korea ... an-n791221


The Pentagon has a specific plan to bomb two dozen North Korean missile-launch sites. If North Korea is stupid enough to launch missiles towards Guam or go through the motions of doing so, these missile-launch sites would be demolished accordingly. Unless it's a full-scale invasion aiming at a regime change, China would not intervene.
#14832182
One Degree wrote:Lots of possible scenarios. Everyone, including myself, have reverted to Nationalistic arguments. We forgot about economics which is the key to everything today. I think China might be more interested it what benefits them economically. That is siding with the West against North Korea. I think they will make a deal, behind public view, to sell out North Korea as long as the US promises to not send in permanent troops. What else they get from the deal will slowly become apparent by future events.
Of course, any thing is possible. China may have developed a next generation defense system and are eager to draw the US into a trap. Who knows?

Edit: I can't actually think how the US would gain much from destroying North Korea. China will just install someone else. The great game still requires their destruction however, unless they agree to abandon their nuclear program. Of course that would just create another Iran scenario.


There are two points I want to add here:
China is indeed economically reliant on the western countries rather than North Korea, Russia or Iran. There's no logical reason in terms of economy to say, China has to be against the west. The inconsistency here as you pointed out raised a question: whether or not China would accept the deal, to join our western bloc against North Korea or even Russia, and there's no harm to China if they do, theoretically.

From my understanding, the fundamental reason for China to persist with their anti-west stance is the fear of the collapse of the regime. Everything seems good to them if they accept westernization both economically and politically except the established class would lose power thus they never wish that happens one day.

Knowing what they want and fear, on the other hand, we have to be clear of what we want. We don't actually care if China is democracy to be honest even if the communist regime is arresting dissents everyday and people there can't access Internet, that's totally not our business. What we do care is, they shouldn't be against us. Being a pro-US nation doesn't necessarily conflict with dictatorship, just see Saudi Arabia, do we mind if people there enjoy their freedoms?

A possible deal to change the political face of China may be, China joins US-led bloc like other East Asian neighbors, in return we respect their dictatorship and promise not to interfere anything within China.

I agree the US gains nothing directly from the disappearance of North Korea (no oil etc). But don't forget here, it's not us who wish to destroy them but they constantly pose a threat to us. We need nothing but safety. We don't want liberate anybody, to be clear.
#14832183
ThirdTerm wrote:The Pentagon has a specific plan to bomb two dozen North Korean missile-launch sites. If North Korea is stupid enough to launch missiles towards Guam or go through the motions of doing so, these missile-launch sites would be demolished accordingly. Unless it's a full-scale invasion aiming at a regime change, China would not intervene.


I reckon the situation may be more complicated if Kim does strike first. As long as we fight back, they are very likely to attack South Korea which is no more than 50KM away from their border. What should we do then? nothing but watch them conquering the South? That'll be the toughest situation the US has to face then.
#14832190
One Degree wrote:The North can not conquer the South. The South is superior in every area and has twice the population. It is just fear of casualties that is a problem.

Well, twice the population doesn't mean twice the military force. In your words the South can handle the invasion North themselves need no help from the USA? I doubt.
#14832191
Sasa wrote:Well, twice the population doesn't mean twice the military force. In your words the South can handle the invasion North themselves need no help from the USA? I doubt.


On paper, the North appears to have an advantage but all their equipment is outdated. It was reported that in 2014 everyone of their planes were grounded for part of the year. The South has top of the line military equipment and could easily overwhelm the North on their own. This is why North Korea went all out on the nuclear option. They see it as their only choice for defense.
#14832193
One Degree wrote:On paper, the North appears to have an advantage but all their equipment is outdated. It was reported that in 2014 everyone of their planes were grounded for part of the year. The South has top of the line military equipment and could easily overwhelm the North on their own. This is why North Korea went all out on the nuclear option. They see it as their only choice for defense.

<< The South has top of the line military equipment and could easily overwhelm the North on their own.>> I hope you are right. That is to say the US never need to fear the potential attack on the South and can simply remain "neutral" then, which is good.
#14832195
Well, you still have the problem of a possibly insane dictator in the North with biological and nuclear weapons.

Edit: Don't forget there are 28,000 American troops in South Korea and they are an ally. Being neutral is not an option, since we are officially still at war.
#14832198
One Degree wrote:Well, you still have the problem of a possibly insane dictator in the North with biological and nuclear weapons.

Edit: Don't forget there are 28,000 American troops in South Korea and they are an ally. Being neutral is not an option.

Oh, that's right, no way for US to keep neutral.
Even in the "best" scenario (as most wishes), which is nothing happens, the US has already lost diplomatically, while being threatened by both North Korea & China, unable to do anything. The only "positive" impact of this event, is to warn the leftists, China is still ruled by communist, it's not never modernized politically, and they are the real boss of North Korea. We lied to us "the cold war ended" but that's not true. The business trades with China haven't made it our friend either. Similarly, that North Korea would one day ruined by its people is no more than a unrealistic dream. The threats to the Free World are just increasing, sad to say.

The only theoretical way to effectively improve the situation is, to destroy North Korea this time and by the way make China pro-West. I know it's not easy.
#14832212
lol @ NK is a threat to US au contraire US is a massive threat to the very existence of NK. But don't worry US is not going to attack someone who can actually fight back.

And as per economy, it cuts both way, why the hell US will want to deteriorate her economical relations with China for a stupid stunt?

And finally China may be anti-west but west is far more anti-china than other way round, its the west who gives noble prize to a Chinese who wishes colonization and genocide of entire Chinese people.
#14832216
Pffft, it isn't like China owns a huge chunk of our deb - owait.

We have a symbiotic (at the time being) relationship with China. That won't last, as China develops. But antagonizing them may prove a very bad idea.
#14832220
Nothing is really going to happen except for more posturing. A permanent solution can be created but only when all parties, China, US and South Korea are on board and don't expect China to be on board because you are going to give them moral lectures about the evilness of North Korea. China will obviously want something "big" in return for ditching NK and for that itself NK is too big of a bargaining chip to be ditched just like that.
#14832223
Zagadka wrote:Pffft, it isn't like China owns a huge chunk of our deb - owait.

We have a symbiotic (at the time being) relationship with China. That won't last, as China develops. But antagonizing them may prove a very bad idea.


This reminds me Marco Rubio's words when Obama just started relationship with Cuba last year, he likened that to the "diplomatic success" with communist China in 1970s. Yes we thought we would gradually make China our ally by stop containing them. Truly China did change, much stronger thanks to our policy change, but remains a regime against the west (especially since Xi Jinping took power). In other words we fostered an enemy successfully. That's the lesson we've learned for the last 30 years. Now it's the North Korea, fostered by China.

I wonder if we just keep a blind eye saying, easy, things would be fine tomorrow (dream of China/North Korea one day becomes our friends automatically) as usual? My belief is things would never be solved unless we manage to do something. Everyone agrees that US is no longer the superpower as it used to be.

skinster wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ugJZhL-cbc

This video justifies the fact that US deserves the downfall, due to so many ignorant citizens?
Yes time for China (if not Russia) to lead the world, OK?

fuser wrote:Nothing is really going to happen except for more posturing. A permanent solution can be created but only when all parties, China, US and South Korea are on board and don't expect China to be on board because you are going to give them moral lectures about the evilness of North Korea. China will obviously want something "big" in return for ditching NK and for that itself NK is too big of a bargaining chip to be ditched just like that.

Having said that, NEVER expect China to accept political westernization, cos their rulers desperately stick to authoritarianism. North Korea is just a puppet totally maintained by China, who could make it die anytime if they wish. There's no North Korea issue, but China issue.

The only possible solutions would be either:
convince China that we fully respect and support their dictatorship within China, so that they may consider becoming our ally. That's not easy.

or:

defeat both North Korea & China militarily so that clear off concerns in East Asia permanently. That's not easy either.
#14832230
This is a headache for China I can assure you.

They undoubtedly would rather have either a complete regime change in NK (but would never admit this) or a U-turn in NK attitude on world relations and policies. Everything is about economics and defense to them. It would be very difficult to trade with the East during a war. And a huge drop in the dollar is not in their interest either. Plus they don't want US troops at their border (the same reason Russia doesn't want Ukraine in NATO). So the best solution for them is the status quo.

Nonetheless should NK attack Guam (which I think is very unlikely), the US would then have justification to destroy all of North Korean silos and military factories. But they would also take out power stations and government buildings whilst doing so. China would no doubt not like this but couldn't really prevent it or condemn it either. So perhaps they would remain neutral to begin with and should the US be in the position of a ground offensive, then actually offer their troops to assist so they then can control strategic territory in NK.

Like everything about politics, China will be considering everything wisely to their best interests.
#14832519
The US is a powerful and insular nation. Its biggest problem today is the destruction of its middle class. American politicians are not especially concerned about anything other than that. Any distraction from that is OK.

If Kim launches a nuke, of course, all bets are off. We will nuke him back and in a big way. Any president who did not do that would be toast and so would his "cowardly" party.

China and the US are joined at the hip. Besides. What nation could oppose our response if we were nuked first.

What about threats? OK. Here is what the US "ought" to do. Pay close attention to what I say. If you misquote me consider yourself an asshole without my telling you....

The US should declare for all of the world to hear that it believes that the DPRK has ICBMs that can reach the US mainland and has miniaturized nuclear warheads to fit on them. The US should announce this from every hilltop. Now look folks. It does not matter one whit whether they have them or are just getting close. If the US announces this to the world, every nation in the world will expect the US to prepare to counter the threat. We already are prepared of course but after the announcement our preparedness would clearly be seen as self-defense. Why do this?

1. Any launch toward the US or one of its allies would naturally be assumed to be an attack. And an attack with a nuclear weapon. After all, Kim has endlessly threatened it and now we "know" he has the means.

2. China would know this. So would Russia. They would know that any launch by the DPRK could legitimately be met with a counter strike (using the quite normal and expected "launch under attack" option) from the US using nuclear weapons. Neither China nor Russia would risk a nuclear war with the US over a third world shit hole like the DPRK. Besides. Some might think we are doing them a favor getting rid of this hell-hole.

3. The calculus in the DPRK would change the day after the announcement. It would not be wise for Kim to keep up his threats. As a nuclear power threatening nuclear war the world would be required under treaties now in effect to destroy the DPRK before it could use nukes on another state.

Nope. The US should declare North Korea a state with ICBMs capable of carrying nuclear weapons and the game will change instantly.

Would the US use nuclear weapons on the DPRK? Yes. Remember that we already have used them. Twice. And they had exactly the effect we wanted them to have. Would China try to stop us? How would they do that? Threaten nuclear war with a nation that could obliterate them out of hand and that is one of their largest trading partners to boot? Over what? A petulant gordo with a bad hair cut? What China just might do is take out the DPRKs weapons themselves.

I say North Korea already has nuclear weapons capable of reaching us territory, its allies and the mainland. Now go ahead Kim. Make my day.

Just so others may understand.

One Ohio class submarine can carry 24 Trident II missiles. Each missile can carry up to 12 MIRV warheads. Each of those warheads could be configured to provide just under 1/2 megaton yield. 1/2 megaton is 32 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. So that is (in theory) 288 warheads that could be delivered on North Korea in just a few minutes. And they are completely defenseless against them. The DPRK only has 27 cities with populations greater than 100,000. So to put it succinctly, it would be beyond easy to utterly destroy the DPRK in minutes.

Or to think about this another way. Each Ohio class boomer could carry a nuclear arsenal about equal to the entire stockpile of nuclear weapons possessed by China.

(It may be of some comfort to the DPRK to know that under current treaty with Russia, we are supposed to only put 8 warheads on each missile so unless we do a teency-weency bit of cheating or task more than one boat with defeating them (we have 18 of them you know) they would only face 192 warheads with a theoretical yield of a mere 6144 times that of the Hiroshima strike. This would be what in Korean would translate to "a bad day in Black Rock.)
#14832535
Would China try to stop us?

No, but once the US launches its missiles, China will launch theirs. Its ICBMs are computer controlled, under a fail-safe automatic Dead Hand "launch under attack" system, as are Russia's.

wiki wrote:In the early 1990s, several former high-ranking members of the Soviet military and the Central Committee of the Communist Party, in a series of interviews to the American defense contractor BDM, admitted the existence of the Dead Hand.

If the system is switched on, as one would expect it to be (It was designed to be switched on, in a time of crisis.), the decision to launch will be made by a machine. The 'button' untouched by human hands.


:)
#14832592
I see the smiley face Ingliz. I assume you do not actually believe that stuff.

China is an imminently predictable country. It makes very good decisions. We have little to fear from them militarily. Besides. I suspect they would like to be rid of the irritating little man.

By the way. A moderator ought to do something about the title of this thread. It has no resemblance to the subject.
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