[SolarCross]

Why do you think the UK, a jurisdiction outside the European Economic Area (EEA) after Brexit, is somehow special and should be treated differently to any other 'third country'?

The issue isn't the UK it is NI. The circumstances of NI are unique and so wise and reasonable governors should deliver bespoke governing solutions adapted to those unique circumstances. The UK gov to its credit is more than capable of that level of reasonableness, seemingly the EU and its fanboys are less mature. If this were a divorce you are basically trying to use the equivalent of child custody as a weapon of spite, in complete disregard for what is best for NI.

It is exactly this kind of odiousness which justifies brexit. Who would want to be married to such a vile banshee?

[Beren]

Is it possible that reunification with Ireland would be the best for NI @SolarCross?

[SolarCross]

Is it possible that reunification with Ireland would be the best for NI @SolarCross?

Sure, but it isn't Westminster that needs to be convinced of that, it's the people who live there.

[ingliz]

The UK gov to its credit is more than capable of that level of reasonableness, seemingly the EU and its fanboys are less mature.

Reasonable? The Conservative gov, putting party before country, rejected the only reasonable solution (NI stays within the SM & CU) at the behest of the DUP.

[Atlantis]

@Rugoz, in case of a total collapse of UK/EU trade, the UK would lose 44% plus of its export earnings while most other EU member would lose between 7 and 9% of their export earnings. You can't fool anybody with your creative accounting. And the Brexitters only fool themselves.

Sure, but it isn't Westminster that needs to be convinced of that, it's the people who live there.

They will be convinced once the Brexit economy goes over the cliff while the South of the boarder springs into bloom.

[SolarCross]

Reasonable? The Conservative gov, putting party before country, rejected the only reasonable solution (NI stays within the SM & CU) at the behest of the DUP.

Party politics will force its compromises, but taking in account the wishes of the DUP seems eminently reasonable, given they are the duly elected representatives for NI, lol.

I have to wonder on your definition of "reasonable" but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if holodomor was reasonable in your eyes.

[ingliz]

they are the duly elected representatives for NI, lol.

Wrong.

Note:

NI has its own parliament anyway

The 2017 Assembly election marked a significant shift in Northern Ireland's politics, being the first election since Ireland's partition in 1921 in which unionist parties did not win a majority of seats.

[Seeker8]

So what's everyone's predictions on the outcome?

I think brexit will be aborted. It's just too idiotic.

[B0ycey]

So what's everyone's predictions on the outcome?

I think brexit will be aborted. It's just too idiotic.

I'm still hoping you're right, but it does seem Westminster is determined to take a road of stupidity.

As for the Irish border problem, the UK doesn't have to police the border and there is a sea between them and the mainland. I don't understand the problem. If Eire wants to create a hard border that is up to them. But entry into NI can easily be free if that is the will of the Northern Irish.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

Party politics will force its compromises, but taking in account the wishes of the DUP seems eminently reasonable, given they are the duly elected representatives for NI, lol.

In this case, it's actually a good thing that the elections led to the Tories needing the DUP. As for this NI issue, if you want to know how much respect the EU and its members have for national sovereignty and integrity look no further.

I hope that more fault lines will open within the EU, similar to Catalonia, in the future.

[hartmut]

So what's everyone's predictions on the outcome?

I think brexit will be aborted. It's just too idiotic.

Stupid ideas do not bear an inherent handicap to spread.

[ingliz]

the UK doesn't have to police the border

WTO rules it is then.

[B0ycey]

WTO rules it is then.

At this rate, I expect it will be WTO rules anyway. But the way I see it, the UK does not have to police anything, and any deal (or no deal) perhaps needs to realize this.

[Beren]

I'm still hoping you're right, but it does seem Westminster is determined to take a road of stupidity.

As for the Irish border problem, the UK doesn't have to police the border and there is a sea between them and the mainland. I don't understand the problem. If Eire wants to create a hard border that is up to them. But entry into NI can easily be free if that is the will of the Northern Irish.

So you would check people crossing the Irish Sea anyways, even if they come from NI? Because if you come from NI, then you come from the same country, right?

[B0ycey]

You wouldn't do any checks, except the European mainland border perhaps. But to be honest Beren, the UK should just try to adopt as much of the four movements anyway (if they can). The only thing they need to change in order to keep leavers happy is restrict the labour element of it. Keeping movement of people across borders doesn't prevent that. Customs in terms of duty and tariffs perhaps justifies a border at Dover though.

[Atlantis]

So you would check people crossing the Irish Sea anyways, even if they come from NI? Because if you come from NI, then you come from the same country, right? :?:

It's easier to check people/goods at a ferry terminal than at a land crossing where people want to move freely back and forth. Passengers have to show their ticket anyways. Showing a passport together with the ticket doesn't make so much difference. The problem is political. The Unionists and some people in the UK wouldn't want an internal border in the United Kingdom, as this could be seen as the first step towards Irish reunification.

[Beren]

The problem is political. The Unionists and some people in the UK wouldn't want an internal border in the United Kingdom, as this could be seen as the first step towards Irish reunification.

That's what I meant actually, they would treat people the same regardless of whether they come from Ireland or NI.

[JohnRawls]

@Beren
@ingliz
@Atlantis
@B0ycey
@Kaiserschmarrn
@Rugoz

Its hard to quote everybody.....

Anyways, what i wanted to tell you all, is that you are discussing the "bare" minimum requirements to even start the negotiations. This is only 1-5th of the problem to get a trade deal. It will be FAR more harder to convince all of the 27 member states to actually agree to it and vote yes in every parliament.

The bare minimum are there because everybody understand that there is 0% chance of a deal if there is no solution to those 3 questions. But even if they are resolved then chances are still near 0% because next thing that you will need to tackle will be:

1) How do you convince Spain regarding Gibraltar (They have been quite because they probably think you won't even pass the bare minimum)?
2) How do you please all of your neibhours regarding trade?
3) How do you please our foreign partners if you want to use some of the EU-Other country trade agreements at least for the time being?

Because if you guys haven't forgotten. Trade deal with Europe is 1 thing, but you will loose access to our trade deals with other nations because you are leaving.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

The issue isn't the UK it is NI. The circumstances of NI are unique and so wise and reasonable governors should deliver bespoke governing solutions adapted to those unique circumstances. The UK gov to its credit is more than capable of that level of reasonableness, seemingly the EU and its fanboys are less mature. If this were a divorce you are basically trying to use the equivalent of child custody as a weapon of spite, in complete disregard for what is best for NI.

It is exactly this kind of odiousness which justifies brexit. Who would want to be married to such a vile banshee?

I couldn't agree more. If anything, this has hardened my conviction that leaving the EU was the right decision.

Nobody in their right mind can be under the illusion any longer that the EU is a project for Europeans, at least if we include people in countries which are geographically in Europe but outside the EU as European.

[B0ycey]

@JohnRawls, I don't believe anyone disagrees with you - or has said the contrary. Anyone with half a brain knows that either talks extend well beyond two years or it's going to be no deal. It appears Westminster still thinks if they can get a deal done within a timeline. They can't. So my money will be on no deal at this point in time. As this appears to be the case, both sides needs to look into this scenario seriously. The alternative (and more sensible approach) of course is to cancel Brexit or at least have another referendum on the issue (because I do believe opinion is changing in the UK). But for some unknown reason Westminster is determined to cut its nose of despite its face.

Nonetheless, whatever occurs in these talks, The UK should adhere to the Good Friday Agreement. They do not have to police the border and shouldn't even consider this a possibility no matter what the EU does on its side. If Eire wants to do this (and it seems they don't), that is up to them and shouldn't be the UKs concern.