EU-BREXIT - Page 12 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

Wandering the information superhighway, he came upon the last refuge of civilization, PoFo, the only forum on the internet ...

Political issues and parties in Europe's nation states, the E.U. & Russia.

Moderator: PoFo Europe Mods

Forum rules: No one line posts please. This is an international political discussion forum, so please post in English only.
By Atlantis
#14871205
The Brits have been the primary drivers for neo-liberal policies in the EU (without the UK, the EU will become much more social democrat). To blame others for their own faults is in line with the deviousness of the Albion. Since this is exactly what everyone expects of the Brits, Michel Barnier and the EU will have defined their negotiating strategy accordingly.
User avatar
By Beren
#14871210
hartmut wrote:But any way, I cant see "plenty of time left".

It depends on whether what "plenty of time left" means. To me it means I don't expect any referendum to take place next year, however, another snap election seems possible in 2018.
User avatar
By Potemkin
#14871218
As for revolutions, those are 1ns in a century events if not longer.

Hmm... looks like we're about due for another one then, eh...? :)
User avatar
By Beren
#14871226
It's revolutionary indeed that the bondage between the Continent and Britain seems competitive with the Special Relationship. ;)
User avatar
By Potemkin
#14871239
It's revolutionary indeed that the bondage between the Continent and Britain seems competitive with the Special Relationship. ;)

Don't worry, Beren - once we have had our Revolution and become Airstrip One under the benevolent guidance of the Great Helmsman Comrade Corbyn, we will return to liberate Europe from the vile tyranny of Juncker and his evil Eurocrat minions. :)
User avatar
By Beren
#14871242
Potemkin wrote:Don't worry, Beren - once we have had our Revolution and become Airstrip One under the benevolent guidance of the Great Helmsman Comrade Corbyn, we will return to liberate Europe from the vile tyranny of Juncker and his evil Eurocrat minions. :)

Airstrip One is the last thing Corbyn wants, and I wonder if he prefers the Special Relationship at all. In my opinion he'd pull Britain out of NATO, if he could, and would transform the UK into something like Sweden I guess.
User avatar
By Potemkin
#14871244
Airstrip One is the last thing Corbyn wants, and I wonder if he prefers the Special Relationship at all. In my opinion he'd pull Britain out of NATO, if he could, and would transform the UK into something like Sweden I guess.

Agreed. But let me dream, Beren. Let me dream.... ;)
By Decky
#14871283
Europe will be introduced to socialism or it will be introduced to Trident, and in the long run they would be grateful for either. We will save Europe from the EU just as we saved it from Napoleon. Violence is the the only language the fascists in Brussels understand. Paratroopers will be dropped into the low countries and a Peninsular army will march through Spain, it will be exactly like a cross between a bridge too far and Sharpe except we will be fighting an even eviller enemy this time.
By Atlantis
#14871312
Decky wrote:Europe will be introduced to socialism or it will be introduced to Trident ...

Ah Decky, the empire is rearing its ugly head again.

You know the maxim of the empire? "Better dead than red!"

But we will fight this side by side, Decky. We won Brexit together and now we will crash open the doors of No. 10 for comrade Corbyn together. You can have the right wing, I'll take the left. :lol:
User avatar
By Potemkin
#14871727
Oh no! Please Decky, please Nigel, you must not let this happen. There must be no backsliding now. At least not before March 2019.

It's good to see that you, too, have joined the ranks of the accelerationists, Atlantis. :up: ;)
User avatar
By Beren
#14871767
Potemkin wrote:It's good to see that you, too, have joined the ranks of the accelerationists, Atlantis. :up: ;)

He wants to accelerate (Western-)European integration and acts like a good French rather than a good German. However, after the British change their minds, self-criticise ;), and return, I don't think they will be the same kind of obstacle as they were.
By Atlantis
#14872326
So even before the UK has left the EU, the referendum result is costing the UK government more than can possibly be recovered by ending net contributions to Brussels.

Economists for Brexit, a forecasting group, predicted that after a leave vote growth in GDP would expand 2.7 per cent in 2017. The Treasury expected a mild recession. Neither proved correct. The 2017 growth rate appears likely to slow to 1.5 per cent at a time when the global economy is strengthening.

According to economists such as Robert Chote, chairman of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, which produces the official government forecasts, a more pressing question is to assess the impact compared with what would have happened had the vote gone the other way. “Many PhDs are going to be written on the impact of Brexit over the years to come,” he says.

This work has started, and includes a range of estimates calculated by the Financial Times suggesting that the value of Britain’s output is now around 0.9 per cent lower than was possible if the country had voted to stay in the EU. That equates to almost exactly £350m a week lost to the British economy — an irony that will not be lost on those who may have backed Leave because of the claim made on the side of the bus.

[...] In October, the International Monetary Fund highlighted Britain as a “notable exception” to an improving global economic outlook, while the OECD, the Paris-based club of mostly rich nations, has raised concerns about “the ongoing slowdown in the economy induced by Brexit”.

Thomas Sampson and colleagues at the London School of Economics have examined the direct effect of sterling’s depreciation since the EU referendum on prices and living standards. With the pound falling about 10 per cent following the June 2016 result, inflation has risen more in Britain than in other advanced economies. It started with petrol prices and spread to food and other goods, pushing overall inflation up from 0.4 per cent at the time of the referendum to 3.1 per cent last month.

When looking at prices, depending on the level of import exposure of different goods and services, the LSE study estimates that the Brexit vote directly increased inflation by 1.7 percentage points of the 2.7 percentage-point rise in the 12 months after the referendum. And with wage inflation stuck at just over 2 per cent, “the increase in inflation caused by the Leave vote has already hurt UK households”, Mr Sampson says.

He calculates that “the Brexit vote has cost the average worker almost one week’s wages”, but adds the figure could be higher or lower if a complete evaluation of the economic impact was applied rather than just the initial squeeze on incomes from leaving the EU.
[...]
The results vary according to the comparisons made, but all show the UK economy has been damaged even before it formally leaves the EU on March 29 2019.
[...]
Geographical comparisons produce a similar conclusion. Britain’s year-on-year growth rate tended to be close to the G7 upper range of outcomes over the past 25 years. Had that performance continued, British GDP would have grown 2.9 per cent since the referendum. The statistical algorithm produces a significantly larger estimate of what would have been possible, suggesting Brexit has already removed 1.3 per cent from GDP since the vote.

In the referendum campaign the big red bus was making a different comparison, an incorrect one, about the budgetary costs of the EU to Britain. It suggested Britain contributes almost £18bn a year to the budget, when the net cost in 2016 was calculated by the Treasury to be £8.6bn. And this leaves one last comparison that it is possible to make.

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, says that “for every 1 per cent of GDP you lose, that’s getting on for £10bn a year of foregone tax revenues”. If 0.9 per cent of GDP has been lost over the five quarters for which data exists, there has already been a £9bn hit to the public finances. So even before the UK has left the EU, the referendum result is costing the UK government more than can possibly be recovered by ending net contributions to Brussels.


The mere referendum vote is costing the UK more than it's net EU contributions. Knowing the Tories, the NHS will get 350 million/week less and not more. When the UK actually leaves the single market the impact will be a lot worse.

From being the best performing OECD economy before the referendum, the UK now has the slowest growth of any of the major OECD economies and that despite improved growth for the EU.
Last edited by Atlantis on 19 Dec 2017 10:37, edited 2 times in total.
By Atlantis
#14872528
Potemkin wrote:It's good to see that you, too, have joined the ranks of the accelerationists, Atlantis. :up: ;)


You read me wrong Pot. I'm not talking about creative destruction. Failing the dissolution of the United Kingdom, Corbyn is the best bet for dealing the death blow to imperialism. Corbyn, like Tsipras, like Le Pen and all the rest of the motley crowd will in due course be tamed by the civilizing force of the great European Union.

Michel Barnier: Financial services excluded from Brexit trade deal EU chief negotiator says no existing EU trade deal includes financial services.

The EU will not do a post-Brexit trade with the U.K. that includes financial services, its chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier told a group of European newspapers.

Barnier said that the loss of access for the City of London was a consequence of the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU single market. “There is no place [for financial services]. There is not a single trade agreement that is open to financial services. It doesn’t exist,” Barnier told the Guardian.


[It is the consequence of] the red lines that the British have chosen themselves. In leaving the single market, they lose the financial services passport.

The U.K.’s Brexit Secretary David Davis has said that he is seeking a “Canada plus plus plus” trade deal including services which make up the bulk of the U.K. economy.

Barnier has previously said that a full trade deal will be impossible to strike before the U.K.’s exit date of March 2019. But in the interview, he acknowledged it would be possible to hammer out a deal in a subsequent two-year transition period. But he said that all 35 EU national and regional parliaments will have to ratify it. He also said that the U.K. can negotiate its own trade agreements during the proposed two-year transition period — but will have to wait until the period is over before the agreements can come into force.

Barnier also said that the U.K. must follow EU rules during the proposed transition period, even new laws passed after March 2019, when the U.K. formally leaves the EU.

Asked about Barnier’s interview on BBC Radio 4’s Today program, Irish ambassador to the U.K. Adrian O’Neill said: “Mr Barnier is the chief EU negotiator and what he says I think has to be listened to with great attention and care.” He said Ireland wanted the “closest relationship possible” with the U.K. after Brexit but would not elaborate on what they entailed.

Earlier, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May appeared to dismiss Barnier’s assessment that the U.K. cannot a bespoke trade deal after the chief negotiator was seemingly contradicted by his senior adviser Stefaan De Rynck at a speech at British think tank Chatham House.


The service industries represent about 80% of the British economy. There is no free market for services outside the single market. By leaving the single market the UK has chosen to cripple its own economy. Continental economies will do fine trading goods under WTO. Moreover, after dealing with an initial disruption to the supply chain, continental economies will benefit from companies relocating from the UK to the single market.

Therefore, there is very little incentive to give the UK a special deal, especially since it would undermine the integrity of the single market and would give third countries the right to demand the same favors.
By hartmut
#14872680
Atlantis wrote:We can't take British politicians at face value.

....
The UK will most likely still be in the limbo of the transition phase during the next election. Meaning, nothing will have changed. If Corbyn can hold on until then, he'll use a referendum or some other device to stay in the single market so that nothing changes.
..

This kind of staying in a "single market" would stand for the folly of simply staying without a voice, loud enough to be heard, in that very market.
But even this could easily be the best outcome in the wake of foolish behaviour. Namely to follow the loudest speakers.
User avatar
By Beren
#14872710
Politico wrote:Barnier has previously said that a full trade deal will be impossible to strike before the U.K.’s exit date of March 2019. But in the interview, he acknowledged it would be possible to hammer out a deal in a subsequent two-year transition period.

Politico wrote:UK government may not put fixed leaving date in exit bill

Theresa May preparing to back away from promises to include March 29, 2019 in the legislation.

By SAIM SAEED AND TOM MCTAGUE 12/19/17, 2:30 PM CET Updated 12/19/17, 6:10 PM CET

British Prime Minister Theresa May is preparing to back down from promises to include the date when the U.K. officially leaves the EU — March 29, 2019 — in the country’s European Union (Withdrawal) Bill, according to two senior U.K. officials.

The officials said the government will include language in the bill that will allow for flexibility on the exact date when the U.K. leaves the bloc, a key demand of the opposition and a few Tory MPs opposed to a hard Brexit.

The move is aimed at avoiding another defeat like the one the government experienced last week when MPs voted in favor of a key amendment that will allow parliament to have a say on a final divorce deal. The author of that amendment, former Attorney General Dominic Grieve, warned another such defeat was likely if the government went ahead with putting in a fixed date for departure.

So Brexit won't have an exact date and parliament will have a say on a final divorce deal. What if they don't approve of it?
User avatar
By noemon
#14872712
Not even the Brexiteers can approve of Brexit now.
User avatar
By Rugoz
#14872717
They should negogiate a deal and when it's done put it to a popular vote. Maybe that will stop all the stupid drama in the meantime. :roll:
User avatar
By Beren
#14872754
It's like a three-sided game of the cabinet, parliament, and the people. The people weakened the cabinet by the last election and parliament took the weakened cabinet under its own patronage. Parliament seems like the most sensible player in the game, which strengthens my belief in representative democracy.
User avatar
By Rugoz
#14872836
Beren wrote:It's like a three-sided game of the cabinet, parliament, and the people. The people weakened the cabinet by the last election and parliament took the weakened cabinet under its own patronage. Parliament seems like the most sensible player in the game, which strengthens my belief in representative democracy.


The parliament is sovereign in Britain. Everything happening is the consequence of its actions.
  • 1
  • 10
  • 11
  • 12
  • 13
  • 14
  • 328

Isn't oil and electricity bought and sold like ev[…]

@Potemkin I heard this song in the Plaza Grande […]

Russia-Ukraine War 2022

The "Russian empire" story line is inve[…]

I (still) have a dream

Even with those millions though. I will not be ab[…]