[Doug64]

... and last but not least …. groping women and waving your penis in their face is no big deal.

It might be a bigger deal to all reasonable people if the accusers were more credible.

[jimjam]

It might be a bigger deal to all reasonable people if the accusers were more credible.

first off, thank you very much for the work you do on this thread. it is very well done.

I do not know the accusers and am unable to evaluate their credibility. Reasonable people? Certainly a rare commodity these days. I tend to believe them but in this day and age when lies are the norm (much more so than in my memory) and abound on all sides it is strictly "buyer beware". Assuming the accusers are telling the truth, we certainly cannot expect His Honor to say, "Gosh, I almost forgot but yup now I remember humping her leg." A lie in this circumstance is guaranteed.

[Doug64]

first off, thank you very much for the work you do on this thread. it is very well done.

I do not know the accusers and am unable to evaluate their credibility. Reasonable people? Certainly a rare commodity these days. I tend to believe them but in this day and age when lies are the norm (much more so than in my memory) and abound on all sides it is strictly "buyer beware". Assuming the accusers are telling the truth, we certainly cannot expect His Honor to say, "Gosh, I almost forgot but yup now I remember humping her leg." A lie in this circumstance is guaranteed.

Thank you, it's always nice to be appreciated.

As for the accusers, you have one accuser that didn't say anything to anyone in three decades and now can't remember when or where the party was but is absolutely certain it was Kavanaugh that attacked her; according to her husband she first mentioned Kavanaugh as the attacker in the context of him ending up on the Supreme Court; according to her therapists' notes first mentioned four men attacking her but she later said no, it was two men with another two at the party, then made it a man and a woman; and all three men and the woman have denied ever being at such a party, the woman denies ever even knowing Kavanaugh while in High School, and Kavanaugh has a calendar from 1982 marked with all sorts of events but no such party -- and he was gone most of that summer.

For the second accuser you have another event three decades ago, and the woman says at the time she was drunk to the point she ended up on the floor, foggy, was slurring her words, and has serious memory issues for that night, but is absolutely convinced Kavanaugh was the one that exposed himself -- but only after spending a week thinking about it and discussing it with her lawyer. Oh, and when the New York Times contacted several dozen of her classmates fruitlessly looking for an eyewitness, they found that she had also been calling her classmates asking if they remembered anything about that party and mentioned to some of them that she wasn't sure it was Kavanaugh. And all those she says were there say it never happened.

So yeah, I wouldn't call either of them credible.

[Torus34]

We're closing in, uproar by uproar, on the November elections. The pundits are having a field day, their positions secured by the short memories of their adherents. The politicians are busily gathering in 'campaign contributions' and keeping track of the major donors to be 'thanked' should they win election or re-election.

As the rhetoric heats up, the public responds in a more and more visceral manner, leaving facts and logic strewn on the floor to be trampled underfoot. Voters, those people who are expected by idealists to vote for the country's and their own best interests will, instead, vote their prejudices and fears.

"It is not necessary to put the people into shackles. It can be accomplished by helping them to forge their own chains out of their emotions, ignorance and prejudices." A Beginner's Guide To Government, Aloysius Goldpen.

[Doug64]

Here's Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, updated on the 4th. It'll be interesting to see how these change going forward after the Kavanaugh confirmation:

Senate
Republican Safe, Likely, and not up for a vote: 47
Republican Leans: 2
Republican Toss-Ups: 2

Democrat Safe, Likely, and not up for a vote: 43
Democrat Leans: 2
Democrat Toss-Ups: 4

House
Republican Safe and Likely: 173 (-3)
Republican Lean: 23 (+1)
Republican Toss-Up: 26
Democrat Lean (Republican): 15 (+2)
Democrat Likely (Republican): 0 (-2)
Democrat Safe (Republican): 3 (+2)

Democrat Safe and Likely: 188
Democrat Lean: 4
Democrat Toss-Up: 2
Republican Safe (Democrat): 1

Governors
Republican Safe, Likely, and not up for election: 17 (+1)
Republican Lean: 3 (-2)
Republican Toss-Up: 7 (+1)
Democrat Lean (Republican): 1
Democrat Likely (Republican): 2

Democrat Safe, Likely, and not up for election: 14
Democrat Lean: 5 (+1)
Democrat Toss-Up: 0 (-1)

Independent Leans Republican: 1

So again, almost all the movement in the Democrats' direction, mostly in the House (now a gain of 29 seats with the toss-ups split, three over the average). The only bright spot for the Republicans is one of the Governors' races moving into safe territory from Leans Republican.

[Doug64]

And the latest update from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, as of Oct. 11:

Senate
Republican Safe, Likely, and not up for a vote: 47
Republican Leans: 2
Republican Toss-Ups: 2

Democrat Safe, Likely, and not up for a vote: 43
Democrat Leans: 2
Democrat Toss-Ups: 3 (-1)
Democrat Leans Republican: 1 (+1)

The shift in the Senate is Heidi Heidkamp in North Dakota. Right now, looking at the average of polls on RCP for September and October, Republican pick up three of the toss-ups for a net gain of one ... but the margins of all three of those toss-ups (Arizona, Missouri, and Nevada) are razor-thin, so theoretically the Democrats could still squeak out a win here.

One thing that might be seriously damaging to Sinema in Arizona are some video clips and texts that have surfaced in the last week. She's going to need at least some Republican support to win, and that's less likely when it turns out you've called Republicans crazy and said other states don't want to become like your state, called your state the meth lab of Democracy, and said that stay-at-home mothers are leeching off their husbands or boyfriends.

House
Republican Safe and Likely: 173
Republican Lean: 23
Republican Toss-Up: 26
Democrat Lean (Republican): 15
Democrat Likely (Republican): 0
Democrat Safe (Republican): 3

Democrat Safe and Likely: 188
Democrat Lean: 4
Democrat Toss-Up: 2
Republican Safe (Democrat): 1

And the Republicans seem to have halted the bleeding in the House, with no shifts at all.

Governors
Republican Safe, Likely, and not up for election: 16 (-1)
Republican Lean: 4 (+1)
Republican Toss-Up: 7
Democrat Lean (Republican): 1
Democrat Likely (Republican): 2

Democrat Safe, Likely, and not up for election: 14
Democrat Lean: 5
Democrat Toss-Up: 0

Independent Leans Republican: 1

No movement in the Governors' races either. It'll be interesting to see if these and the House races remain in stasis until November 6th.

[Doug64]

So far Orson Scott Card has been avoiding political commentary, at least in his weekly review/excerpt emails, but he just came out with his views of the election:

In the blood feud between the Insane Far Left and the Lunatic Far Right, each of them a ridiculously small portion of the body politic, it's easy to lose track of what is actually at stake in the current election.

As we watch Democrats encourage acts of violence and intimidation against Trump administration officials and continue to assert that Trump is impeachable because of fake evidence of collusion with Russia (a nation we are not at war with), it is easy to think that our choice this election is between Trump on one side and the Democrats on the other.

During the primary elections, the Trumpicle candidates vilified incumbent Republican senators and congressmen because they were not sufficiently subservient to Trump and his agenda. They talked as if genuine statesmen like Paul Ryan and John McCain were evil because they weren't Trump's puppets.

So they, too, would like you to regard this election as a referendum on Donald Trump.

It isn't.

Almost every time Trump speaks or tweets, he reminds us of why most Republicans preferred other candidates during the primaries in 2016. If you remember, Trump ran against the Republicans in Congress.

When he was elected with no popular groundswell of public support, the congressional Republicans owed him exactly nothing.

So why should it surprise anybody that the only parts of the Trumpicle agenda that have made it through Congress are the ones that Republicans would have supported with or without Trump?

A stronger military. Federal judges who don't believe they have the right to legislate from the bench. Less federal regulation of businesses. A robust, pro-American foreign policy.

This is a congressional election. Trump is not on the ballot.

So when you look at the ballot, and you see a candidate in the Democrat column and a candidate in the Republican column, a vote for the Democrat is not a vote against Trump, and a vote for the Republican is not a vote for Trump.

Republicans in Congress are not the dutiful soldiers that the Democrats are. While Democrats almost never vote against their party leadership -- because they know that if they do, the party leaders will put up a primary election challenger, as they did with Lieberman -- Republicans have the ability to think for themselves.

I know, that's almost unthinkable -- and if Trump had his way, they would all be obedient little soldiers -- but in fact, Republicans can be fairly moderate and sane, compared to the lunatics on the Far Right. John McCain stayed in office as long as he wanted, voting against the party line when he felt that was the right way to get the job done -- and every Republican knows he or she has that option.

When you look at the name in the Republican column, you are not seeing someone whose vote will be controlled by the Tweeter-in-Chief. Even those who got the Republican nomination by convincing primary voters that they were true-blue Trumpicles will still have the ability to look at legislation and make up their own minds.

So if Trump demands that they do something that violates their conscience or that will hurt their chances of reelection or that will waste tax money, they have the option of voting as they see fit. They might even listen to their constituents.

They might actually bother to read legislation before they vote for or against it -- something that Democrats don't feel a need to do, as they proved with Obamacare.

And when you think back over hearings about Supreme Court nominees, please remember that Republicans never tried to smear Clinton's or Obama's nominees. In fact, many of them voted for Obama's nominees because they were excellent judges and because the Constitution, which Republicans have actually read, says that the Senate doesn't choose the Supreme Court, they are merely supposed to advise and consent.

Contrast that with how the Democratic mob behaved over Kavanaugh. Just as with Clarence Thomas, a judge of unquestioned integrity was attacked by a person of obviously faulty memory -- at best. She will probably be able to make a career of her vaporous accusations, because the Far Left will insist that she must be believed.

But the American people know better. A sexual predator repeats his offenses -- you know, like noted sexual predator Bill Clinton, whose support staff all knew they had to watch out for "bimbo eruptions" all the time. Likewise, Bill Cosby is going to jail for a pattern of behavior that met his weird predatory needs, and which lasted for decades.

But neither Clarence Thomas nor Brett Kavanaugh ever had a single credible witness against them. In both cases, they were being accused by a woman who was apparently the only one whom they treated in a predatory manner.

Which is why, despite the smear campaign, we knew that these good men did not do what they were accused of doing. (And if you instantly thought, "There's no such thing as a 'good man,'" then you are in the lunatic fringe I've been talking about.)

When you consider voting for the Democratic candidate for a congressional seat, please think about how no Democrat has spoken out against the behavior of the Left in those confirmation hearings (though one Democrat in a red state was allowed to vote for Kavanaugh's confirmation, since it was going to happen anyway).

Not one congressional Democrat has spoken against the mobbing, beatings, vandalism, slanders, and other misbehaviors of the anti-Trump "resistance."

Where were the Republican riots during Obama's administration? If there were any, you can be sure many Republican leaders would have spoken out against them -- and if they didn't, the Leftist media would have demanded loudly to know why.

I found Donald Trump repulsive and annoying before he ran for President. I found him appalling with everything he did during the 2016 campaign. But when the Democrats offered a completely corrupt, dishonest candidate -- the worst their party had to offer -- to oppose him, I have to admit I was relieved when the Electoral College gave the presidency to the Republican.

That's because I trusted the Republican majority in Congress to slow-walk his most insane proposals, and I trusted the Supreme Court to block any of his actions that were actually unconstitutional.

I figured that even though Trump got into office as a populist, running against both Democrats and Republicans, the congressional Republicans would act with integrity and independence -- or at least with an eye toward reelection -- to give us something approaching a moderate federal government.

And even though I am as embarrassed and disgusted by Trump as ever, I must say several things about him that might actually border on praise:


1. He has actually tried to fulfil his campaign promises. Now, I really hate most of his campaign promises, but please keep in mind that this guy actually remembered what he promised and has tried to carry out that agenda.
   
2. He has turned out to be somewhat better at international relations than his tweety record would suggest. He's no diplomat -- ever -- but he seems to be able to work out reasonable deals sometimes. And he never humiliated us by duplicating Obama's international apology tour. Trump isn't ashamed to be American, the way Michelle Obama declared herself to be.
3. He actually noticed that without the cooperation of Congress, he can't get anything done, and when he tries to bully senators and representatives, it always backfires. So over the past year and a half, he's actually been trying to work out compromises with Republicans in Congress -- something Obama never even attempted.

But the fact that his administrative record has been more in line with moderate Republican principles than his rhetoric ever suggested is owed entirely to the Republican majority in Congress.

If we lose that majority, then the insane lynch mob mentality of the Democratic Party will cause us to face a two-year nightmare of attempts to enact their insane agenda -- including the impeachment of the lawfully elected President.

In other words, the choice is not between Trump and those who don't like Trump.

The choice is between a surprisingly moderate government balanced between Trump and congressional Republicans, or a radical Democratic Congress that believes every accusation against any Republican and punishes everybody who doesn't bow to every ridiculous demand of the politically correct.

I stopped identifying as a Democrat during the 2016 party convention, when a woman got thunderous applause for declaring that she aborted her baby for no better reason than her personal convenience.

At that moment, I knew that the great moderate Democratic tradition of Daniel Patrick Moynihan was dead, replaced by a mob of mindless conformity, following the stupidest ideology ever to be espoused by a large number of American grownups since the end of slavery.

But I didn't become a Republican, either, because I would immediately fit Sean Hannity's definition of a RINO -- a Republican In Name Only.

So I'm going into that voting booth as a nonmember of any political party -- not because I don't want to join a political party, but because there is no political party that speaks for moderation in, well, anything.

Like you, I will vote without knowing much more about any of the candidates than (a) their party affiliation and (b) whatever lies their opponents have told about them during the campaign.

I will cast my ballot to maintain a Republican majority in Congress, not to support Donald Trump in anything.

I think that is important for our country, because I know what happens to our national defense when Democrats set the budget, and I know what happens to our courts when Democrats get to decide which people will be the politically correct dictators and lawmakers from the bench.

If the Lunatic Far Right actually came to power, they would be every bit as scary as the Insane Far Left. But right now, and for the foreseeable future, that's not our choice.

The Republican column still represents a defense of American culture, not the made-up rage-filled dogmas of the politically correct mob.

The Republican column still represents a strong national defense.

It still represents at least an attempt at public civility instead of mouth-frothing violence and intimidation.

And it still promises congresspersons who are free to make up their own minds about what they believe will best serve the interests of our nation.

That's what's really on our ballot this time. Not Donald Trump.

[Hong Wu]

Trump is totally in the ballot. Appreciate that Card is smart enough to make a cogent argument for why he shouldn't be if people were smart enough but he is.

[One Degree]

Perhaps we should pay more attention to the establishment Republicans and establishment Democrats about their repeated references to how friendly they are on a social basis? They both know their public persona is pure bullshit. They both work for the same masters. So, this election is absolutely about Trump. If you are tired of total control by the wealthy, then he is the only possible choice. Both parties hate him and it is not because of his character. He is a populist. Why can’t you understand the implications of that?

[Doug64]

Trump is totally in the ballot. Appreciate that Card is smart enough to make a cogent argument for why he shouldn't be if people were smart enough but he is.

Card is smart enough to make a cogent argument why voting a straight Republican ticket is a vote for sane, Right-Moderate government rather than a vote for Trump.

Perhaps we should pay more attention to the establishment Republicans and establishment Democrats about their repeated references to how friendly they are on a social basis? They both know their public persona is pure bullshit. They both work for the same masters. So, this election is absolutely about Trump. If you are tired of total control by the wealthy, then he is the only possible choice. Both parties hate him and it is not because of his character. He is a populist. Why can’t you understand the implications of that?

You are right, Trump is a Populist. But most Republicans in Congress are not, and Trump is smart enough to know he has to work with them if he wants to accomplish anything substantial that the next president can't overturn with the stroke of a pen--just as he's done with so many of Obama's accomplishments. OTOH, he's certainly given future presidential candidates a roadmap to possible victory that could pull the Republican Party towards Populism over time.

And the latest update from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, as of Oct. 19:

Senate
Republican Safe, Likely, and not up for a vote: 47
Republican Leans: 2
Republican Toss-Ups: 2

Democrat Safe, Likely, and not up for a vote: 43
Democrat Leans: 2
Democrat Toss-Ups: 3
Democrat Leans Republican: 1

No change in the Senate. The RCP No Toss-Ups map had Republicans at 54 for a few days with Republicans winning Florida, but that's flipped back to Democrat with the latest poll. That's how close the race is.

House
Republican Safe and Likely: 172 (-1)
Republican Lean: 27 (+4)
Republican Toss-Up: 21 (-5)
Democrat Lean (Republican): 15
Democrat Likely (Republican): 2 (+2)
Democrat Safe (Republican): 3

Democrat Safe and Likely: 190 (+2)
Democrat Lean: 2 (-2)
Democrat Toss-Up: 1 (-1)
Democrat Leans Republican (+1)
Republican Safe (Democrat): 1

Definite shifts this week, that favor both parties. Democrats have had two of their Leans shift into Likely Safe territory, but one of their Toss-Ups is slipping toward the Republicans. And while the Republicans have had a seat drop out of Likely Safe territory and two shift to Likely Lost, they've also had three shift from Toss-Up to Leans Republican. So splitting the toss-ups, the likely outcome is around Democrats 223, Republicans 212--a shift of one toward the Republicans, and less room for a wide swing.

Governors
Republican Safe, Likely, and not up for election: 16
Republican Lean: 4
Republican Toss-Up: 7
Democrat Lean (Republican): 1
Democrat Likely (Republican): 2

Democrat Safe, Likely, and not up for election: 14
Democrat Lean: 5
Democrat Toss-Up: 0

Independent Leans Republican: 1

No movement in the Governors' races either. But this was before the Independent candidate running for re-election dropped out and gave his nod of approval to the Democrat. At this late date his name can't be removed from the ballot and several thousand absentee ballots have already been mailed out, so the likelihood is that he probably isn't going to prevent Republican Dunleavy from winning, but who knows? Here's an article for anyone curious about it: Why did Alaska’s governor abruptly drop out of the race?

[Hong Wu]

Poll is by a reputable group, the Washington Examiner. Guy is up +12 in the average polls right now; are we looking at a red wave? It's an interesting election cycle to be sure.

I'll take a chance here and say that we're looking at a Republican win. If early voting trends continue throughout election day (and they usually do, particularly in the midterms if R's are ahead) then when we combine this with the polls being full of liars lately and the fact that many of these elections are regional, Republicans should increase their Senate seats and keep congress.

The only wildcards are how desperate the Democrats are willing to get (all of these bombs, not one of which have gone off, getting mailed to them in late October looks pretty October surprise-y to me) and how the late night joke men will be shamelessly reminding all of the NPCs to go vote right before election day, so their usual poor performance on midterm election days may not happen.

[Torus34]

As we reach the end of a long period of decreasing unemployment and rising economic indicators and as the chickens loosed abroad by the Administration come home to roost one by one, we can reasonably expect a downturn in the fortunes of the average American. It is part of the cycle we can chart in any number of ways. The popularity of the Administration may be in for a downturn as well.

"One's level of popularity follows a curve. The down slope can be precipitous, most especially when the up slope has been achieved through increasing sensationalism." On Politicians and Others, Clifton Snape

This ancient armchair observer finds wry humor in the description of our present point in the economic cycle as 'getting back to normal.' Reference to the historic chart of unemployment* demonstrates clearly that the bottom of a cycle lasts but a short time compared to the total. It is anything but normal.

* https://www.macrotrends.net/1316/unempl ... ical-chart

[Doug64]

And the latest update from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, as of Oct. 25, one more update before Election Day!

Senate
Republican Safe, Likely, and not up for a vote: 47
Republican Leans: 2
Republican Toss-Ups: 2

Democrat Safe, Likely, and not up for a vote: 43
Democrat Leans: 2
Democrat Toss-Ups: 3
Democrat Leans Republican: 1

Again, no change in the Senate, and the RCP No Toss-Ups map again has Republicans at 54--three pick-ups and not losing a single state to the Democrats--only this time because the Indiana race has flipped.

House
Republican Safe and Likely: 167 (-5)
Republican Lean: 33 (+6)
Republican Toss-Up: 20 (-1)
Democrat Lean (Republican): 15
Democrat Likely (Republican): 2
Democrat Safe (Republican): 3

Democrat Safe and Likely: 190
Democrat Lean: 2
Democrat Toss-Up: 1
Democrat Leans Republican 1
Republican Safe (Democrat): 1

Some more shifts for the Republicans, though not necessarily any that will hurt them if the undecideds split. If too high a percentage break to the Democrats, Republicans are going to be really hurting, though.

Governors
Republican Safe, Likely, and not up for election: 16
Republican Lean: 2 (-2)
Republican Toss-Up: 9 (+2)
Democrat Lean (Republican): 1
Democrat Likely (Republican): 2

Democrat Safe, Likely, and not up for election: 15 (+1)
Democrat Lean: 3 (-2)
Democrat Toss-Up: 1 (+1)

Independent Leans Republican: 1

More shifts mostly in the Democrats' favor, though one Democrat governorship has shifted to Toss-Up. RCP's Governor Toss-Up map has the Democrats picking up eight and not losing any, while the Republicans pick up Alaska from the current Independent governor, for a final balance of 24 Democrats / 26 Republicans.

[Hong Wu]

RCP averaged house polls have the house as a toss-up for the first time. Democrats would average a gain of 24.5 seats (they need 23 to win).

I don't think they're going to take the house at this rate. Every sign other than the averaged national polls suggests that Republicans are going to clean up. As we get closer to election day the polls have been tightening which is a bad sign for Dems.

I also wonder if there isn't "October surprise fatigue." What started with the migrant caravan being pushed forward by leftists in South America (and basically called an October surprise by both sides) got further inflamed when a (presumably) gay male stripper with a long criminal history but who is somehow registered as a Republican sent out like ten not-working pipe bombs the size of Pez dispensers, then a synagogue shooting by a guy who's mad at Trump for not being right-wing enough, who knows what else is going to happen. It's probably possible to give people burnout if there is too much drama.

[jimjam]

Republican "leadership" at it's pathetic worst. The piece of shit lightweight on the left wants to be governor of Florida and the billionaire on the right wants to purchase one of Florida's senate seats. (note the cute little map of Florida on his lapel )

[Kaiserschmarrn]

RCP house and senate maps:

[Rancid]

I casted my votes early. It was an early cast, but a very good cast.

[Albert]

Who did you vote for?

[Torus34]

Who did you vote for?

I'll reply with how I shall vote.

We are, as far as I can tell from the actions and rhetoric of the two major political parties, seeing the results of a 'winner takes all' mindset. It's fed by the vilification of 'them' -- that is, those in the other party.* It can result in excesses which will not be good for we, the people.

So I shall be voting to reduce the possibility of a single political party taking control of all three divisions of government, whether it be at the federal, state or local level. This will mean, in some instances, voting for this or that party. My vote will, as needed, cross con/lib red/blue and Dem/Rep boundaries.

* The vilification of other groups, though beneath contempt, I see as a side issue.

[Rancid]

Who did you vote for?

Given I'm in Texas, it's a given that Republicans will win. I voted against Ted Cruz (he'll win anyway), and I voted against our current governor (he'll win anyway). Everything else I voted on was local elections and various bond proposals and city ordinances (these are the only things that might go the way I voted).

I also voted against the current mayor of Austin. I actually agree with much of his ideas, but the way he totally mishandled a project in the city called "CodeNEXT" pissed me off. He basically started to blame city residents for not understanding it, yet, he could never explain any part of it in detail when he was asked detailed questions about it. He would always just brush questions off as "Just trust us, it's good for the city." The guy was total dick about it, fuck him. It was a multi-million dollar waste of money paid out to some consultancy firm. HE didn't even understand it himself. Fucking douche... ANyway, he will likely get re-elected anyway.