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By Baff
#14955194
B0ycey wrote:
I suspect you're right. Although a revolt in parliament won't mean we leave without a deal. The government will be forced to continue negotiations as there aren't that many MPs or public voices that want to just walk away with nothing. And I am sure the EU are happy to extend the transition period until at least the next prime minister comes into power.

So for you, the only hope for a swift no deal Brexit is through another referendum, where the choice specifically states we leave with what has been agreed so far and that is it or we remain in the EU. Otherwise the UK will just remain in limbo.



I am fully aware that the NI border isn't really a problem at all Baff. I know that the border will be open just as it is today for everyday users even under Hard Brexit. And I also know that customs checks won't be done at the border either. But that doesn't mean there isn't an issue. Checks on goods are required under WTO rules and if you don't have shared standards in goods, these checks will also need to be done somewhere near the border to prevent illegal goods from entering your market. And that is where the problem lies. The EU wants all this done at the Irish sea with NI in the customs union and the UK wants minimal checks by saying the will oblige to EU standards without signing up to these standards and all additional checks to be done by technology. I don't know if the UK has suggested land ports for goods that near the NI border yet, but ultimately this is what they will have to built under Hard Brexit if they want to keep the GFA in place so perhaps they should.

The law has already been passed.
We leave on 29th of March.

Unless parliament can pass something different, your extension for example, a deal or a second referendum.
It's a no deal exit.


We are perfectly able to check goods near the border. And so are they.
By B0ycey
#14955196
Baff wrote:The law has already been passed.
We leave on 29th of March.

Unless parliament can pass something different, your extension for example or a second referendum.
It's a no deal exit.


The PM doesn't have the support in her own party to just leave the EU without a deal Baff. She will just be ousted out of power or cross party supporting MPs will bring forward an election before March and the EU will allow article 50 to be extended as it is in their interest to do so. Hence why May has said that unless her MPs support her chequers plan they risk no Brexit at all.

Keep eating and buying your popcorn throughout spring and summer.
By Baff
#14955198
Seeker8 wrote:So what exactly would you consider grounds for invasion Baff? like, what is the least action the E.U could take?

BTW i thought one of the main points of brexit was securing our borders. But it's not secured if there is no border in Ireland is it.

Invasion?

That would be in support of our allies.
For them to invade us? In support of their allies.

However of we deemed them to be promoting terrorism in Ireland, we can just Bomb the EU itself. It's in artillery range.
Gunboat diplomacy. A Cruise missiles. A laser guided bomb. Naval artillery.

Or we might act covertly. Assassinate. Fund terrorism there. Stop tipping them off to terrorist attacks planned in their countries.
Stop supporting their troops deployed abroad. Stop patrolling their sea borders and let those migrants through. Perhaps even help them. Set up some NGO's.
Support and antagonise their separatist movements ourselves.

We could equally act financially aggressively.
Sanction, embargo and punitively tariff.

Trade war.

These people's position with us is very weak.

If we ban lending from the city of London, pretty much every EU government collapses in the same year.

We are in a power relationship.
Tiger vs flock of sheep.




There is a border in Ireland.
It seems secure enough to me.
If you feel it is insecure, petition your government accordingly.
I would prefer no free movement with the Irish myself. Traveller's are a real problem in my region.
I'd like Brexit to address this. I don't think it is going to.

Nor do I deeply believe they will stop migration from the EU now they have no one else to blame for it.
But you never know.
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#14955233
Baff wrote:Invasion?

That would be in support of our allies.
For them to invade us? In support of their allies.

However of we deemed them to be promoting terrorism in Ireland, we can just Bomb the EU itself. It's in artillery range.
Gunboat diplomacy. A Cruise missiles. A laser guided bomb. Naval artillery.

Or we might act covertly. Assassinate. Fund terrorism there. Stop tipping them off to terrorist attacks planned in their countries.
Stop supporting their troops deployed abroad. Stop patrolling their sea borders and let those migrants through. Perhaps even help them. Set up some NGO's.
Support and antagonise their separatist movements ourselves.

We could equally act financially aggressively.
Sanction, embargo and punitively tariff.

Trade war.

These people's position with us is very weak.

If we ban lending from the city of London, pretty much every EU government collapses in the same year.

We are in a power relationship.
Tiger vs flock of sheep.




There is a border in Ireland.
It seems secure enough to me.
If you feel it is insecure, petition your government accordingly.
I would prefer no free movement with the Irish myself. Traveller's are a real problem in my region.
I'd like Brexit to address this. I don't think it is going to.

Nor do I deeply believe they will stop migration from the EU now they have no one else to blame for it.
But you never know.


Baffs reality right now:

[youtube]sVOzMZ4IrMA[/youtube]
By Baff
#14955283
I think we are at that time.
I think we are looking for a leader who will take a stand instead of Theresa the Appeaser.

No sign of one, however.

My top debate this week.
User avatar
By Kaiserschmarrn
#14955344
Tory MPs are now trying to prevent NI backstop via legislation. Very welcome, as it just moves forward the choice the UK has to make anyway. Via ITV:





-----------------------------------------------------------------

Seeker8 wrote:Did even one brexiter argue before the referendum that Norway was in the E.U? Cause if they did, i didn't see it. Norway is not in the E.U. It didn't say anything about leaving the CU and SM on the ballot paper, therefore the solution to all this crap is just to stay in them.

People on both sides of the debate said the UK would leave the single market. Start at 1:40 of this video:



As for the CU, just remember all the talk about the UK having an independent trade policy after Brexit by pretty much everybody on the Brexit side.
By Baff
#14955434
B0ycey wrote:The PM doesn't have the support in her own party to just leave the EU without a deal Baff. She will just be ousted out of power or cross party supporting MPs will bring forward an election before March and the EU will allow article 50 to be extended as it is in their interest to do so. Hence why May has said that unless her MPs support her chequers plan they risk no Brexit at all.

Keep eating and buying your popcorn throughout spring and summer.


There is no cross party support and they have had plenty of opportunity to oust her.
A new leader in the Conservative party can't get support for a deal either.
Why sacrifice your career?

Anything is possible but as it stands I see impasse.
And I see nothing on the horizon to break it.

No new leader and no new deal on offer that cross party unites leavers with remainers.

This is a polarised debate.
I'm not listening to remainers, and they aren't listening to me.

There is no compromise option.
That's why we put it to a vote.



Before the referendum, when it looked like Remainers would win, I suggested that either way, this would result in a very divided country and asked them in the event of their win what compromises would they offer to the vast millions of leavers.

I raised this on all UK forums.
And I got the same answer from all of them.

"None".

So that's the way it is.
Vote's done. We leave the EU. No compromise.

The laws passed. You dream of the conservative party uniting to depose their leader and confound Brexit, but they don't need to.
The leavers simply have to vote down any new motions and they have the numbers to do so.


Afterwards, May fails to get a deal and so must resign or be pushed and then a new leader gets his chance with the party breaking stuff all behind him. It's a Churchill moment from then on. Once the country has been committed, all the remain argument is gone from the debate. We are able to move on.
User avatar
By ingliz
#14955436
Baff wrote:We are able to move on.

So you are looking forward to joining the 'shirkers' on the dole?

'No-deal' Professor Patrick Minford, Rees-Mogg's favourite economist wrote:If we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing.

Carolyn Fairbairn, CBI director general wrote:The situation is now urgent. Unless a withdrawal agreement is locked down by December, firms will press the button on their contingency plans. Jobs will be lost and supply chains moved.


:lol:
Last edited by ingliz on 21 Oct 2018 11:14, edited 2 times in total.
By B0ycey
#14955438
Baff wrote:There is no cross party support and they have had plenty of opportunity to oust her.
A new leader in the Conservative party can't get support for a deal either.
Why sacrifice your career?

Anything is possible but as it stands I see impasse.
And I see nothing on the horizon to break it.


Just under half of the MPs in parliament will definately vote for a general election today. What percentage of Tory MPs will vote for one if the end result is clearly "No Deal"? Remember, Brexit supporters/remainers aren't party politics. It crosses all parties. So yes, a general election before March is indeed possible as I suspect the super majority will be achieved after Christmas when urgency becomes paramount.

Nonetheless why do you think May isn't on thin ice? It is amazing she is still standing... or that she wants to remain as PM at all actually. And that is the crux. Her Brexiteers opponents are even less likely to achieve anything either if they replace her. And perhaps even a Tory remainer who will give the people a vote will get into power instead. Although MP support for a People vote would actually pass through parliament today if May actually decided that she has only that left as a course of action to get out of this mess so perhaps the 700,000 protectors shouldn't give up hope just yet.

The leavers simply have to vote down any new motions and they have the numbers to do so.


You don't get it Baff. The leavers are not leavers at all cost. And that is the problem with a no manifesto referendum. The promises cannot be achieved as they promised everything to please everyone within every ideology. The UK divide is not just remainers vs leavers after all. The leavers divide is just as divisive.

Afterwards, May fails to get a deal and so must resign or be pushed and then a new leader gets his chance with the party breaking stuff all behind him. It's a Churchill moment from then on. Once the country has been committed, all the remain argument is gone from the debate. We are able to move on.


May is still in fantasy Baff. She thinks she can still get a deal. And despite her out face, she won't just leave without a deal. The question isn't whether we can leave on a no Brexit term but when May will finally give in and grant the people's vote. I suspect it will happen when MPs vote down whatever agreement she comes back with and her only option then is a peoples vote actually.

Keep eating popcorn.
Last edited by B0ycey on 21 Oct 2018 12:48, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
By Seeker8
#14955454
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:-----------------------------------------------------------------


People on both sides of the debate said the UK would leave the single market. Start at 1:40 of this video:



As for the CU, just remember all the talk about the UK having an independent trade policy after Brexit by pretty much everybody on the Brexit side.


Yes, your video only shows torys. I know they are liars, you don't need to convince me of that. :lol: I remember Alex Salmond who is very pro EU, saying before the referendum that Cameron and Osbourne were over-exaggerating and scaremongering, because it was true.

People on both sides of the debate also said we wouldn't be leaving the single market. That wasn't what i said though. Show me someone saying Norway is IN the EU. I can show you the brexiters including the most prominent one Farage using Norway as an example of a successful country outside the E.U.



What is on the voting paper is what matters and the SM and CU were not on there. Quite simple. It's a massive con trick by the rich so they can continue to evade tax.
By Baff
#14955503
B0ycey wrote:Just under half of the MPs in parliament will definately vote for a general election today. What percentage of Tory MPs will vote for one if the end result is clearly "No Deal"? Remember, Brexit supporters/remainers aren't party politics. It crosses all parties. So yes, a general election before March is indeed possible as I suspect the super majority will be achieved after Christmas when urgency becomes paramount.

Nonetheless why do you think May isn't on thin ice? It is amazing she is still standing... or that she wants to remain as PM at all actually. And that is the crux. Her Brexiteers opponents are even less likely to achieve anything either if they replace her. And perhaps even a Tory remainer who will give the people a vote will get into power instead. Although MP support for a People vote would actually pass through parliament today if May actually decided that she has only that left as a course of action to get out of this mess so perhaps the 700,000 protectors shouldn't give up hope just yet.



You don't get it Baff. The leavers are not leavers at all cost. And that is the problem with a no manifesto referendum. The promises cannot be achieved as they promised everything to please everyone within every ideology. The UK divide is not just remainers vs leavers after all. The leavers divide is just as divisive.



May is still in fantasy Baff. She thinks she can still get a deal. And despite her out face, she won't just leave without a deal. The question isn't whether we can leave on a no Brexit term but when May will finally give in and grant the people's vote. I suspect it will happen when MPs vote down whatever agreement she comes back with and her only option then is a peoples vote actually.

Keep eating popcorn.


No one in parliament able to call an election is willing to.
Essentially Labour wants to, but can't.

It's a pipe dream.

No deal is very popular with the Tory's and also with the country.
More popular if polls are to be believed, than Chequers. Way more popular.

I am amazed May is still standing too, so much so that I no longer believe anyone will remove her.
What would be the point, she can't get Chequers passed anyway.



The referendum had no manifesto, the election that followed had manifesto commitments from Labour and Tory parties to deliver a full Brexit.
They voted this through.

Now they have 6 more months to agree a deal between themselves and the EU.
Not going to happen in my opinion.
Last edited by Baff on 21 Oct 2018 16:18, edited 2 times in total.
By Baff
#14955505
ingliz wrote:So you are looking forward to joining the 'shirkers' on the dole?




:lol:

I'm not an EU employee.
They will be crying all on their own.

Image
User avatar
By Seeker8
#14955526
This is an Interesting read.

IT’S easy to become overwhelmed by all the Brexit confusion but just occasionally Brexit still throws up something so bizarre it requires closer examination.

A case in point is Ruth Davidson and David Mundell threatening to resign if Northern Ireland gets a deal to stay in the single market. At first I thought “good for them, standing up for Scotland and demanding that if Ireland gets special treatment after Brexit, Scotland should as well” – but not a bit of it.

What they were actually saying was that they would resign if Northern Ireland were offered a deal because they don’t want to give Scotland’s government the right to demand the same.

Essentially Scotland’s two leading Conservatives are trying to stop Remain-voting Scotland getting a deal that protects it from the worst extremes of Brexit and will threaten to resign to ensure that Scotland gets as bad a deal as possible from Brexit.

Why? It’s not as though they want a no-deal Brexit or were even remotely doubtful about the EU prior to the Leave vote.

Davidson famously campaigned for a 2014 No vote predicting disaster as Scotland would be out of the EU. During the EU referendum she was a vocal Remainer and more recently stated that she wants to “Make sure that we’ve got a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU” … and to “trade within the single market”.

Mundell waxed lyrical on the benefits of staying in the EU: “We will be stronger, safer and better off by remaining in a reformed European Union”. That our first priority must be the single market and “we are better off – because British businesses will have full access to the single market, bringing jobs, investment and lower prices”.

So why is special treatment for Northern Ireland such a big deal that resigning becomes an option? Well negotiations with the EU and the growing possibility of a no-deal scenario hinge on the Irish border issue. The Good Friday Agreement insists on no borders, largely to stop smuggling-funded terrorist activity. The EU says there is no need for a border on the island of Ireland; just have it between Northern Ireland and the UK.

The DUP and Scotland’s extreme British nationalist Tories say “over my dead body” because it would undermine the integrity of the UK. The UK Government has been unable to come up with a solution. Largely because there isn’t one.

So what’s the big deal? A few customs checks on the ferry as it arrives in Stranraer, some extra paper work at Liverpool docks for containers from Northern Ireland. We can all manage that can’t we? Well no, because if that is the cost of leaving the European Union there is a much older union that expressly forbids it.

Article IV of the Act of Union 1707 states “That all the Subjects of the United Kingdom of Great Britain shall from and after the Union have full Freedom and Intercourse of Trade and Navigation to and from any port or place within the said United Kingdom.”

There was an amendment in 1800 which put subjects of Great Britain and Ireland on the same footing (Article Sixth).

It restates the necessity of freedom of trade but it also goes a little further stating “that in all treaties made by his Majesty, his heirs, and successors, with any foreign power, his Majesty’s subjects of Ireland shall have the same privileges, and be on the same footing as his Majesty’s subjects of Great Britain.”

Ok, so if there was any border and restriction on trade between Northern Ireland and other parts of the UK, Scotland and other parts of the UK would in effect null and void the Act of Union, thus technically dissolving the nation of The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland into its constituent parts.

That would mean a new Act of Union and a new Good Friday Agreement were needed and fast – no big deal, nothing to see here, move along.

A bunch of Lords have been cobbling together a suggested new Act of Union but there is nothing in their disjointed ramblings to solve the trading problems of Brexit, borders or the democratic imbalances in the UK. So that explains the DUP/Mundell/Davidson panic stations.

The fun begins however when you recall that both Holyrood and Westminster have confirmed Scotland as a sovereign nation.

Thus, if there were to be a new Act of Union then the old Union would cease to exist and some mechanism would have to be found to allow sovereign Scotland to sign up to the new Act for it would not be a union if forced upon us.

Ironically, then, saving the Good Friday Agreement would lead to a Brexit transition period, and a new technically independent Scottish Government would then retain its recourse to European Court of Justice and ask it to rule on whether the rUK can annex Scotland against its will.

It’s rather amusing therefore to think that this also raises the prospect of a referendum to ratify a new Act of Union or remain an independent nation.

How would Unionists sell that? Do you Scotland want to join a nation that will be run by a distant, dysfunctional and disinterested government that you didn’t vote for? Have your wealth invested outside your country but be burdened with debt that your nation didn’t create, and have those that did create it call you scroungers and subsidy junkies?

And have your ability to trade, travel and work abroad severely restricted because the new Union will operate outside the EU, even though you voted remain?

Do you want Westminster to roll back devolution, so Scotland’s parliament can’t protect you from the free trade deals we want to strike with nations like the US who will want their healthcare companies to be able privatise the Scottish NHS?

Thinking about it, that wouldn’t really be different to the offer they will have to make during an independence referendum – bring it (or at least one of them) on.

By B0ycey
#14955530
I wouldn't worry about Scottish Tory resignations Seeker. It is clear that NI being treated differently to the rest of the UK is one red line everyone is agreeing to. :roll:
By hartmut
#14955581
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:The island is already split. There exists a border right now between NI and RoI with respect to VAT and excise duty for example.

..


That is a typical Kaiserschmarrn-mixing of important and important facts to create a nebula to obscure facts.
If VAT and excise duties (latter are the best example :D ) were signs for being "split", there would be no point for any Brexit.
Because both differ within Europe (EU) anyway. "Excise duties" even differ within Germany as Bavaria has got an own "excise duty" (did anyone realise what that is?) on beer. ..Little surprise..... and there was no outbreak of hostilities.
Ireland is very different, and the smoldering bloody civil war was not about VAT or any of similar kind of such.
User avatar
By One Degree
#14955587
Our super advanced and enlightened civilization stymied by what profit loss is acceptable to allow self government?
It’s a real head scratcher.
By Baff
#14955594
hartmut wrote:That is a typical Kaiserschmarrn-mixing of important and important facts to create a nebula to obscure facts.
If VAT and excise duties (latter are the best example :D ) were signs for being "split", there would be no point for any Brexit.
Because both differ within Europe (EU) anyway. "Excise duties" even differ within Germany as Bavaria has got an own "excise duty" (did anyone realise what that is?) on beer. ..Little surprise..... and there was no outbreak of hostilities.
Ireland is very different, and the smoldering bloody civil war was not about VAT or any of similar kind of such.


Did you think Brexit was about money mate?

This is the stuff of world wars.


The Good Friday agreement prevents military watch towers being placed on the Irish border.
No one is suggesting that under any circumstance.
So we aren't expecting Paddy to beginning start shooting holes again in towers that aren't there.

The point with Ireland is it is being used as leverage in a cynical attempt to fuck with the UK.
And everyone in the world knows the dilemma being offered the UK is a false one and ultimately not the UK's problem at the end of the day what border regime the EU implements on the EU's side.

This is a farce. And The EU thinks it has something to gain from it, and Theresa May thinks she has something to gain from it.
But our businesses are planning for no deal now. So are our governments.
And for those who want to leave the EU, this is the preferred solution. The people fucking around this way have only been hurting themselves.
User avatar
By Kaiserschmarrn
#14955595
Seeker8 wrote:Yes, your video only shows torys. I know they are liars, you don't need to convince me of that. :lol: I remember Alex Salmond who is very pro EU, saying before the referendum that Cameron and Osbourne were over-exaggerating and scaremongering, because it was true.

People on both sides of the debate also said we wouldn't be leaving the single market. That wasn't what i said though. Show me someone saying Norway is IN the EU. I can show you the brexiters including the most prominent one Farage using Norway as an example of a successful country outside the E.U.

What is on the voting paper is what matters and the SM and CU were not on there. Quite simple. It's a massive con trick by the rich so they can continue to evade tax.

I'm not trying to convince you of anything - you specifically mentioned the single market and customs union in your post and it's possible to be opposed to the UK staying in either while recognising that Norway isn't an EU member.

When it comes lying or tricking people, there are plenty of videos showing those who now advocate for a second vote stating that the first referendum will be the only one and/or explicitly opposing a second one, and this is certainly not restricted to the Tories.

But regardless, even the Norway option, if it was feasible, would come with the NI backstop attached and as such is unacceptable. There's really no point in debating any options.

hartmut wrote:That is a typical Kaiserschmarrn-mixing of important and important facts to create a nebula to obscure facts.
If VAT and excise duties (latter are the best example :D ) were signs for being "split", there would be no point for any Brexit.
Because both differ within Europe (EU) anyway. "Excise duties" even differ within Germany as Bavaria has got an own "excise duty" (did anyone realise what that is?) on beer. ..Little surprise..... and there was no outbreak of hostilities.
Ireland is very different, and the smoldering bloody civil war was not about VAT or any of similar kind of such.

I'm not sure why anybody would expect hostilities on the Bavarian border. As you say, the NI border is quite different, not least because it is to a large extent the turf of (former) IRA members who to this day engage in lots of smuggling there. If any country is equipped in dealing with a politically sensitive border, then it is the UK, and the last thing that is needed is the misguided brinkmanship by the EU/Ireland which, as mentioned before, does nothing but rile up hardliners and extremists. Again, anybody on the EU side who would like to take the moral high ground and lecture the UK on peace in NI deserves nothing but derision.
User avatar
By ingliz
#14955696
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:anybody on the EU side who would like to take the moral high ground and lecture the UK on peace in NI deserves nothing but derision.

You seem to be forgetting that NI voted by 11 constituencies to 7 to "Remain" (56% to 44%) and the DUP did not take the majority of Northern Irish votes in the 2017 UK general election, receiving just a smidgen more of the vote than Sinn Féin (34.1% to 33.1%).
Last edited by ingliz on 22 Oct 2018 12:39, edited 2 times in total.
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