Drlee wrote:You are right and it is a huge advantage for him. His group is very reliable and easily malleable. The problem is that they are terrible coalition partners. The key to his reelection is certainly with his base which makes him a shoo-in for the nomination. The problem comes in trying to find winning votes among independents and traditional republicans. (And there still are a significant number of us though many have fled to the democrats.)
An example of one. My brother was also a life long republican. He did not vote for Hillary nor did he vote for Trump. We wrote in somebody and threw his vote away rather than vote for her. (Trump was out.) But he remained a loyal republican. A week ago my brother called me and said he had changed his registration to democrat. Why? Not Trump. He did it because the party lacked the moral center and courage to oppose Trump when he was just wrong. Or lying.
So that is what will happen in 2020. If the democrats can keep up the pressure Trump will be gone. Huge loss. Maybe lose the senate too.
What is dangerous for republicans is that if the democrats take all three, they will not hesitate to use the republican's own tactics against them. IF the democrats take even more state offices the republicans artificial power through gerrymandering will cease. I can seriously see a day when the republican party might simply become a third party with some organized independent party arising.
You overestimate your value to Trump or Trump like politics. The issue is that Trump rhetoric is eating in to classical democratic votes: Unions, Latinos, African Americans. While his rhetoric is loosing him the business and national security votes.
Ultimately this is a trade that he can make with ease. There is far more Unions and Latinos/Hispanic vote. He is struggling with African-American votes because there is an issue with prior racism regarding African Americans but their political ideology is more or less in line with what Trump says. Trump had a 8-1 disadvantage with Hispanics in pre-election polling BUT nobody asked if all of the 1st generation hispanics can vote. So the real numbers ended up around 2-1 to Trumps disadvantage.
Unions like the close the border politics for obvious reasons. Same thing goes for Hispanics(You will consider this absurd). But reality is that 2nd generation Hispanics and beyond are for shutting the border. Their only interest is family reunification. As long as 2nd happens then they go to Trump camp easily. So as long as Trump keeps this up and more 1st generation Hispanics who can't vote turn in to 2nd generation Hispanics that can vote then it is ultimately a big advantage for Trump like politics. (Voter disenfranchisement works)
If Trump manages to cut down on the anti-black racist rhetoric in the party then in 5 years African Americans will be a solid Trumpite vote. This is not a far fetched prediction actually. Religious African Americans do not vote for Republicans right now for obvious race baiting reasons but otherwise they are within his ideological sphere of sorts especially with trump ditching the business electorate.
This is also the reason why AOC is being targeted right now. She represents a sort of alternative narrative that democrats can present to the Hispanics instead of the Trumps close the border. Also this is the reason why Democrats are hammering on the "Child seperation" at the border. They want to protect their 2nd generation Hispanic/Latino electorate.