Patrickov wrote:You underestimated how much some of the Chinese want to "avenge" their ancestors of the "humiliation" in these 200 years (from what I see now, they still totally deserve it).
The Commies primarily were somewhat born out of this semtiment, feeded on this, and now have no choice but to serve this. Many of their supporters see Hongkongers as traitors and will eagerly annihilate us even if that means they have to go through turmoil again.
I don't think they can be stopped by anything short of a good spanking (or even worse, annhilation), if such persecution happens that is.
Soviet Union was stopped by Finland. Now you need to understand that you don't need to win. You just need to not loose which in modern terms means cause more problems than the benefit that can be extracted.
The time is not bad, China is at its weakest in 2 decades. It wants stability but can't afford being isolated right now when it needs to reform the economy from 1 model to another. Do not forget, ultimately this was one of the main causes why the USSR collapsed. The reform itself could have been sucessful in USSR but global isolation made sure it wasn't.
Now having said that, what about everything else? I mean preferably HK wants this to be as bloodless as possible but is it possible? I do not think a war/military conflict is something HK will ever consider but in worst case Chinese crackdown can be pretty brutal. Will it be though? They can't realistically start jailing people in mass and hope that the region will remain pro-Chinese long term unless it reaches Mao/Stalin level. (Which again, is hardly possible for China not to be a Pariah)
So as much as i see it, Chinese options are pretty non-existant against HK if you openly rebel. Small acts they can cover up or jail/remove politicians. But in case of a bigger action there is simply no good way they can react without suffering massive losses. And this is how you basically not loose. And i am not talking about independance or joining back to the UK. There can be measures between the the extremes of bowing down to the Chinese government and fully mocking it.
You need to find the most painful mocking/protest that you can think off and push it down their throat using your local government. You can make China look like a really bad country and make it in to a pariah over time like this. In a sense you want them to backlash but you want to control the size of the backlash not to push them to far in to bloodshed.
Too put it in to simpler words. Marching against a law is fine and dandy but you are playing on the defensive. Take the lead and start causing trouble for the Chinese government by saying something like "We are not represented by the Chinese government", "We ain't gonna pay taxes because of your backwards system", "Chinese government is violating the agreement with the UK", "Come visit us Winie the Pooh" or whatever else what HK people can think of better than me probably.
I do not think that any nation is hopeless to change; however, I think that some nations do require a lot more effort than others to become changed. - Verv