anasawad wrote:@noemon
The only way to do business with Iran at the moment is through Lebanese banks, primarily Med Group and Iran imports bank.
Most others don't do transactions to Iran at the moment.
From a personal view, I would say the sanctions have been a positive rather than a negative.
As far as my sister tells me, the sanctions, especially when now there are sanctions on several types of food and medicine, have been forcing local industries and production to expand their production.
There is currently several projects, some operational and others in preparation, in the Seman river valleys to increase food production. (It's near Damghan where my family is from actually)
The vertical farming model which the university of Tehran ,where my sister works, is working on is starting to gain grounds as the administration is trying to utilize all available farm lands at the most efficient means.
The valley is one of most fertile lands in Iran, and for several years now it's been unused due to political disputes between provincial governments ( food production is shared, so there are quotas on how much each province puts into the market), but now it's being used again.
Local manufactoring, both public and private, has been receiving lots of incentives to expand production. There are several financing solutions being offered for small private businesses and workshops to open up and operate to service the market.
So it's might not be a very pleasant time under blockade, but the path it's putting Iran on is actually very good.
And Iran is not alone, Since the deal was broken, Iranian diplomats have been going all over to their allies to increase investment in Iranian industries and markets.
Baalbek alone have been seeing a near monthly visit by Iraninan diplomats, and offering incentives and tax breaks for the Baalbek tribes to invest, which they are responding to.
So the future looks better.
As far as war goes, the middle east is our region, and we have the defenders' advantage present in the topography of the land where any conflict will take place.
Along with heavy build up inside mountains and in fortified buildings ( a simple look at how thick the average factory walls in Iran would tell you what they're built to withstand), so the industry is safe.
And most Iranian cities, like Baalbek, have large networks of underground bunkers and shelters, built primarily in the 80s in fear of chemical attacks, that were expanded and maintained over the years, So the civilian population is also safe.
There will be damages incurred from a war, obviously, and that's why it's preferable for a war not to take place. But Iran, and all of its allies, are prepared for a war if one was to be forced on it, it's been preparing for years now.
EDIT:
For the political situation inside of Iran, it's actually going the exact opposite of what the Americans wished it would.
The hardliners, moderates, reformists, and the various socialist and liberal movements are actually uniting with each other at the moment.
A couple of years ago when peace seemed guaranteed, the political situation was actually very tense since once the deal was made, everyone freed up to fight over other internal issues.
Since the sanctions are back on, the deal was broken, and now a war seemingly imminent, everyone is getting back together and letting go of their differences.
Heck, even the tribes, usually living in their own world, are uniting with the various political factions.
Necessity is the mother of invention, sanctions force countries to innovate & circumvent sanctions.
it's why, to be effective first time around, they have to hit hard & be enforced.
None,of which helps though in the end,unless the behaviour changes, it isn't because America, as usual, is acting as the world's policeman on it's own, as opposed to gathering support abroad, rather, it is it's lack of 'friends' that is the problem.
It's easy to declare war on a country, more difficult to end it, even more difficult to win people's hearts & minds in a country.
America, for all of it's power or might, finds itself, all too often, impotent when it comes to nurturing friendship in international relationships & it's that power-might that is it's problem.