Rancid wrote:Really? I'm not sure I believe that. I think CCP and government has the winning hand here. They just need to play the long game and be more patient.
If we compare it to France then the core what people are fighting for is different. In France there is trust in the institutions but there is no trust in the course. In Hong Kong there is no trust in both the institutions and the course.
There is a difference if you trust somebody to do something when says it. But perhaps don't like what he says.
A whole different matter is if you do not trust somebody to do what he says and you also don't like what he says.
More real life example is Trump. You might not like his course or his rhetoric but you still trust the institutions to do what they are supposed to. To limit his power when needed and be on their merry way doing what they have done for centuries.
On the other hand there is Hong Kong. People are really mad at the institutions and the course. The same institutions that supposed to protect them from growing Chinese influence are being undermined by the CCP and are a tool against themselves. Not to mention the course to One Country One system basically.
It is not a situation that can be fixed by providing minor concessions and then waiting it out like Macron did. So CCP is in a place where it needs to provide large consessions for Hong Kong to be happier than it is right now or use another mean to forcefully pacify them.
The simple reason that Macron or Trump can get away with that is because people are not mad at the institutions. They are mad at them or politicians for their course and small concessions in the course help to make the people happier. Its a different story when the people consider the institutions to be anti-people. Here a change of course still doesn't solve anything.
I do not deny that the protest can die out eventually. It obviously can happen but i just think that the situation is different and it is ultimately less likely to happen than compared to France. And France already was a massive protest in itself and took many months. If you look at the scale also. What is the number? 25% of the population of Honk Kong? 40%? This is a massive number. Usually 3%-5% of the population taking part in a protest is enough for a revolution. (Don't remember where i read it. I think Ukraine had like 3% or 4%)