- 24 Jun 2019 15:08
#15013979
It isn't. US strategy would be to prevent the rise of a regional hegemon.
Generally, Trump is highly critical of neoconservatives. He defeated neoconservatives Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio in the 2016 primaries. John Bolton is a neocon. Pompeo was part of the Tea Party movement. Trump's team is not primarily neoconservatives. Mike Esper is currently the acting SecDef and he's allied with the Heritage Foundation--paleo conservative not neoconservative.
The US has the first amendment. Nobody needs to hide racist motives. It's perfectly legal for an American to join a neo-nazi party here. It's just not a popular sentiment in America. Bush and Obama said they would move the embassy too. Trump just did it. That's hardly a meaningful reason to start a war. As for Iran, Trump ran on cancelling the Iran nuclear deal. It was not some sort of thing he said he was going to uphold and then somehow changed his mind once he got elected. Racists would be looking for someone who is serious about racism. Trump isn't a racist. He has a long history of working with and hiring people of all races, and maintaining personal relationships with people of all races too. For example, he is a friend of Kanye West, which led among other things to prison sentencing reform.
Who is cheerleading war with Iran?
U.S. Imposes Sanctions on Turkish Officials Over Detained American Pastor
U.S. threatens to cut Turkey from F-35 program over deal with Russia
Trump considers something like that a fig leaf. Congress called for it ages ago, and Obama and Bush promised to do that but didn't. Again, Trump ran for president in opposition to the nuclear deal. It wasn't something that could be construed as a position he decided on after a bunch of Israeli lobbying.
If you are talking about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, perhaps. However, that type of analysis only applies to someone trying to operate as a peace broker and trying to appear indifferent. The US is not indifferent. It takes Israel's side for the most part. Every now and then, you get a US president like Obama that will be harshly critical of Israel, but it's not the norm in US politics.
This is a reality that exist inside of your head. Preventing a regional hegemon is US policy. Israel is not going to support normalizing relations with a country that calls for pushing Israel into the sea.
What war has Trump started?
The alliance with Saudi Arabia is clearly about oil security for Western Europe. It used to play a significant role in the US too as we used to import about 15% of our oil from Saudi Arabia. There are significant factions in the US who don't want to be allied with Saudi Arabia.
Iraq had a French and Soviet military footprint. SCUD missiles are Soviet. MiGs are Soviet. Mirage F1s are French. AMX-30s are French. T-60s and T-72s are Soviet. Mi-24s are Soviet. AK-47s are Soviet. Iraq produced its own artillery. On the contrary, it was Iran that had an American-made air force consisting of F-4 Phantoms and F-14 Tomcats, which were sold to the Shah's government. The Gulf Arab states provided most of the funding. The US provided loans for non-military uses, mostly agriculture.
It's this sort of ideological blindness that makes noemon's analysis so weak.
For people who constantly claim that Trump is a liar, etc., he's actually very transparent about what he believes. He's pro-Israel and unashamedly so.
Inspections only involve monitoring stated sites. Countries that want to build nuclear weapons won't be stopped by the IAEA.
If you are analyzing whether or not the US is going to go to war with Iran, it's a very relevant point of analysis. Iran is huge and clearly on the other side of the planet. It's also mountainous. It's very difficult to fight in mountainous terrain. @anasawad is quite correct about that.
They could take out reactors for sure. Reactors require cooling. So hitting cooling towers is an easy military strike. They just don't want to cause a meltdown if they can avoid it, so they proceed with caution.
Iran is not as cohesive a country as you think it is. One aspect of mountainous countries is that the tribal systems will create lots of small factions. Additionally, it would not be as hard as you think to foment civil strife in Iran. Again, Western powers have not done so, because they had other plans in place--like for example, keeping the Kurds divided since WWI. The US doesn't want to do something like that right now, because it could destabilize Iraq and Turkey.
Sanctions against Turkey appear to be producing political change. Erdogan Loses Istanbul to Opposition Candidate — Again If Turkey were to drop NATO and become hostile to the West, it wouldn't be long before the West was considering a push for a Kurdish state to deprive Turkey and Iran of some territory.
noemon wrote:Why is Saudi hegemony preferable to Iranian one?
It isn't. US strategy would be to prevent the rise of a regional hegemon.
noemon wrote:Trump and his team are neocons.
Generally, Trump is highly critical of neoconservatives. He defeated neoconservatives Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio in the 2016 primaries. John Bolton is a neocon. Pompeo was part of the Tea Party movement. Trump's team is not primarily neoconservatives. Mike Esper is currently the acting SecDef and he's allied with the Heritage Foundation--paleo conservative not neoconservative.
noemon wrote:They needed excuses to hide their racist motives for electing a racist and that is why people kept claiming that they were voting for Trump to allegedly prevent "Killary" from escalating issues with countries in the Middle-East while those very same people have been cheerleading Trump's policy in the Middle-East making things 10 times worse with Jerusalem and Iran.
The US has the first amendment. Nobody needs to hide racist motives. It's perfectly legal for an American to join a neo-nazi party here. It's just not a popular sentiment in America. Bush and Obama said they would move the embassy too. Trump just did it. That's hardly a meaningful reason to start a war. As for Iran, Trump ran on cancelling the Iran nuclear deal. It was not some sort of thing he said he was going to uphold and then somehow changed his mind once he got elected. Racists would be looking for someone who is serious about racism. Trump isn't a racist. He has a long history of working with and hiring people of all races, and maintaining personal relationships with people of all races too. For example, he is a friend of Kanye West, which led among other things to prison sentencing reform.
noemon wrote:These cheerleaders make it transparent therefore that "Killary's" supposed warmongering was just an excuse and not an actual reason.
Who is cheerleading war with Iran?
noemon wrote:He does not appear to be interested in fighting/sanctioning Turkey, despite the fact that Turkey is threatening US and western interests directly by betraying NATO's rules and by openly harassing American, French and Italian drilling operations in Cyprus but he does seem interested in fighting Iran who is not affecting western interests in any way and who was abiding with the deal it made with the west.
U.S. Imposes Sanctions on Turkish Officials Over Detained American Pastor
U.S. threatens to cut Turkey from F-35 program over deal with Russia
noemon wrote:Trump is the only US or western President that has given Israel 2 major concessions by recognising Jerusalem and abandoning the Iran nuclear deal without even taking a concession from Israel for the Palestinians or the Iranians.
Trump considers something like that a fig leaf. Congress called for it ages ago, and Obama and Bush promised to do that but didn't. Again, Trump ran for president in opposition to the nuclear deal. It wasn't something that could be construed as a position he decided on after a bunch of Israeli lobbying.
noemon wrote:It has never happened before for a major power to make concessions to another country without asking that country to make similar concessions to the other parties in the dispute.
If you are talking about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, perhaps. However, that type of analysis only applies to someone trying to operate as a peace broker and trying to appear indifferent. The US is not indifferent. It takes Israel's side for the most part. Every now and then, you get a US president like Obama that will be harshly critical of Israel, but it's not the norm in US politics.
noemon wrote:If what you claim were really true, that Israel has fear instead of outright hatred, then Israel would support the normalisation of relations with Iran instead of supporting the escalation of tensions.
This is a reality that exist inside of your head. Preventing a regional hegemon is US policy. Israel is not going to support normalizing relations with a country that calls for pushing Israel into the sea.
noeomon wrote:Warmongers like Trump do not honour pieces of paper indeed.
What war has Trump started?
noemon wrote:The alliance with Saudi shows this argument to be rather ridiculous and yet another excuse to underplay the fact that Trump is just a warmongering Israeli puppet.
The alliance with Saudi Arabia is clearly about oil security for Western Europe. It used to play a significant role in the US too as we used to import about 15% of our oil from Saudi Arabia. There are significant factions in the US who don't want to be allied with Saudi Arabia.
noemon wrote:It was US money and weapons that bankrolled the invasion of Iran by Iraq and once again it is the US that has withdrawn from the Iranian deal.
Iraq had a French and Soviet military footprint. SCUD missiles are Soviet. MiGs are Soviet. Mirage F1s are French. AMX-30s are French. T-60s and T-72s are Soviet. Mi-24s are Soviet. AK-47s are Soviet. Iraq produced its own artillery. On the contrary, it was Iran that had an American-made air force consisting of F-4 Phantoms and F-14 Tomcats, which were sold to the Shah's government. The Gulf Arab states provided most of the funding. The US provided loans for non-military uses, mostly agriculture.
Hindsite wrote:I resent the fact that people like you seem to always attribute racism as the motive for disagreeing with the left-wing radicals or voting for a Republican candidate instead of someone like crooked Hillary. Racism has nothing to do with the fact that I prefer to vote for someone that is against open borders and unlimited abortions.
It's this sort of ideological blindness that makes noemon's analysis so weak.
Hindsite wrote:Trump had already stated that the Iran nuclear deal was a bad deal while running for president. Recognizing the Golan heights as Israeli territory was a common sense action that was not even request by Israel.
For people who constantly claim that Trump is a liar, etc., he's actually very transparent about what he believes. He's pro-Israel and unashamedly so.
Rugoz wrote:No, it's based on IAEA inspections Iran had to subject to.
Inspections only involve monitoring stated sites. Countries that want to build nuclear weapons won't be stopped by the IAEA.
Rugoz wrote:That's beside the point.
If you are analyzing whether or not the US is going to go to war with Iran, it's a very relevant point of analysis. Iran is huge and clearly on the other side of the planet. It's also mountainous. It's very difficult to fight in mountainous terrain. @anasawad is quite correct about that.
Rugoz wrote:The question is whether a) air strikes could reliably destroy an Iranian nuclear program, the answer to that is no, according to military experts*
They could take out reactors for sure. Reactors require cooling. So hitting cooling towers is an easy military strike. They just don't want to cause a meltdown if they can avoid it, so they proceed with caution.
Rugoz wrote:b) whether air strikes/economic sanctions could lead to the toppling of the current regime, the answer to that is no as well.
Iran is not as cohesive a country as you think it is. One aspect of mountainous countries is that the tribal systems will create lots of small factions. Additionally, it would not be as hard as you think to foment civil strife in Iran. Again, Western powers have not done so, because they had other plans in place--like for example, keeping the Kurds divided since WWI. The US doesn't want to do something like that right now, because it could destabilize Iraq and Turkey.
Sanctions against Turkey appear to be producing political change. Erdogan Loses Istanbul to Opposition Candidate — Again If Turkey were to drop NATO and become hostile to the West, it wouldn't be long before the West was considering a push for a Kurdish state to deprive Turkey and Iran of some territory.
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