annatar1914 wrote:The Tariffs will not bring the manufacturing back, they will result in WWIII.
I don't think China will declare war on the US. Killing your customer isn't good for business. China doesn't have the naval forces to do too much to the US on a conventional scale. If they use nukes against the US, that would be a huge problem for China. The US could easily defeat China in a naval war, but on land it would be pointless for the US to try to do anything to China. The US would simply get its ass kicked in China, and China would get its ass kicked in the United States. The reality is that it isn't in the interest of either side to go to war on land. So the only possible wars would be naval, air, space and cyber.
annatar1914 wrote:He's playing brinksmanship, I know, I've been telling the hysterics that in somewhat more words than that. But it's not going to bring the manufacturing jobs back. Those got outsourced and automation completed the ruin of a real middle class. Stronger measures will be taken.
There is no comparative advantage to outsourcing automated manufacturing. So maybe some of the jobs don't come back, but some of the production will come back.
jimjam wrote:You can't push on a string as the saying goes. Monetary policy cannot supplant poor fiscal policy or terrible trade policy. Trump thinks everything in the world boils down to simple transactional, bilateral "deals" where one entity dominates and "wins" over the other. That's not how an integrated, globalized economy functions. All economies are sailing on the one ship of the global economy. Some have better cabins, but can all sink together. Trump is sinking that ship. The U.S. and world economy stands at a precipice. Will Trump push us over?
You purport to support Trump on his actions against China. Has something changed, or is this just your evening constitutional rant?
Rugoz wrote:Trump is panicking because if the US enters a recession before his first term is over he will not get a second term.
That's not in the bag. A soft landing wouldn't necessarily be the end for Trump. You have to remember that in 2007, oil hit $147 a barrel. The yield curve inverted, and real estate was massively over-inflated.
Rates are not nearly as high now as they were in 2007-2008. Oil is not nearly as expensive. Unemployment is not nearly as high. Real estate is only inflated in blue-state areas like San Francisco and New York City. Things would have to change pretty drastically given the current state of the Democratic party. People like Trump, because he fights. They hated George W. Bush for just taking it on the chin day after day, and he won a second term without a particularly hot economy. John Kerry's personality made that possible. Right now the Democrats are a mess. It's still early. If they can nominate people who aren't completely batshit crazy, like Tulsi Gabbard or Steve Bullock, they might actually have a chance. However, they do not appear to be headed in that direction.
Rugoz wrote:There's little the FED or Trump can do about it though.
The Fed is going to have to cut again to address the yield curve. That's the main thing in monetary policy right now.
[quote='annatar1914']It's not like people will be blaming him, he's already blamed what's coming on his political enemies and the looming trade war with China, thus blaming China too.[/quote]
He already ran on this, and voters responded. Voters understand the problem with China. To be fair, so do his detractors, but they just don't give two shits about the working class in the United States. They are hoping they can keep drowning us in the fruit salad of gender and racial identities ad infinitum
Atlantis wrote:Trump is a bully, and like every bully he's a coward at heart.
And what are Xi Jinping, Kim Jong Il, or Teresa May during her reign? What about Vladimir Putin? Are none of these people bullies? Are they all just full of courage and resolve?