EU-BREXIT - Page 238 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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User avatar
By Nonsense
#15034008
Presvias wrote:Image
Image
Image
(^ politico.eu poll of polls)



Apparently, the Guardian publish a current Opinion\Observer Poll that shows the Tories are on 37%(+ 1%), Lab 25% Lib Dems 16%(- 1%) & Brexit Party 13%(no change), suggesting that the Lib Dems 'gains' are softening.

I would expect that the Tories could gain a significant, even if temporary increase in their share of the vote,if BoJo extricates the U.K from the E.U on 31 October.
Depending on how the public see that the opposition 'remain' parties have behaved in parliament in respect of leaving the E.U, that 'gain' may well harden & even increase somewhat.
User avatar
By Heisenberg
#15034014
Atlantis wrote:@Heisenberg, I now understand that you don't have any arguments. "Pearls before the swine."

:lol:

I love you too, Atlantis.
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#15034052
Lib dems are gonna HULK SMASH in the next election. Moderate tories are joining in drows, moderate labour are joining in drows. Massive exodus from Tory leadership. Lib Dems just proclaimed that they will cancel Brexit so this leaves Labour with only pro-Corbynists. Will it be enough to get 1st place? Probably because for all that Brexit support that Tories get, unless Brexit party doesn't campaign the vote will be split and they are starting to run short on leaders with the defections and exodus. So its complicated. Brexit might not campaign BUT the lack of leaders after the exodus will make it horrible for them. Especially in cases where the candidates didn't just quit but instead joined the Lib Dems.
By SolarCross
#15034057
JohnRawls wrote:Lib dems are gonna HULK SMASH in the next election. Moderate tories are joining in drows, moderate labour are joining in drows. Massive exodus from Tory leadership. Lib Dems just proclaimed that they will cancel Brexit so this leaves Labour with only pro-Corbynists. Will it be enough to get 1st place? Probably because for all that Brexit support that Tories get, unless Brexit party doesn't campaign the vote will be split and they are starting to run short on leaders with the defections and exodus. So its complicated. Brexit might not campaign BUT the lack of leaders after the exodus will make it horrible for them. Especially in cases where the candidates didn't just quit but instead joined the Lib Dems.



lol
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#15034058
SolarCross wrote:https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1172947113677926401

lol


Okay, and? I understand what the polls are right now. It doesn't mean that they won't change considering all the positive and negative factors. Lets be honest here. EP elections made all the parties equal basically including Brexit.

The main question is if Brexit will campaign also. If they will then Lib Dems have very high chance to get number 1. If they don't then probably Tories will be first. That is my opinion. It is obvious by now that both labour and tories will loose some of their current support even further. Tories can compensate with Brexit voters while labour have no way to compensate unless Lib Dems refuse to campaign which will not happen.

People laughed at me when I said Trump might win when he was 8-10 points behind. This is the same story again.
Last edited by JohnRawls on 15 Sep 2019 19:12, edited 1 time in total.
By B0ycey
#15034059
To be fair @SolarCross, your poll is a week old and the Lib Dems announced this policy today. No doubt to separate themselves from Labour who are becoming off the fence more and more everyday taking votes off them. Nonetheless whether they will "Hulk Smash" the next election is debatable. But as they perform better than the polls everytime there is a vote since Brexit means it isn't unthinkable that they could be the main party in coalition after the GE. Especially as Corbyn is divisive.

#InSwinsonWeTrust
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#15034060
B0ycey wrote:To be fair, your poll is a week old and the Lib Dems announced this policy today. No doubt to separate themselves from Labour who are becoming off the fence more and more everyday taking votes off them. Nonetheless whether they will "Hulk Smash" the next election is debatable. But as they perform better than the polls everytime there is a vote since Brexit means it isn't unthinkable that they could be the main party in coalition after the GE. Especially as Corbyn is divisive.

#InSwinsonWeTrust


Honestly irrelevant. Corbyn is not going to make a coalition with Tories under any circumstances. He might be able to negotiate with Lib Dems for some concessions for his support if they get 1st place. Lib Dems have their priorities straight, they outright said that they will cancel Brexit and to deliver it they will need Labour support probably. Corbyn can negotiate with Lib Dems but not with Tories. Greens and SNP will join Lib Dems to cancel Brexit without any conditions. About NI parties, i am not sure. (Probably)

So chances of Corbyn support Johnson in a no deal is 0% while chances of Corbyn supporting Lib Dems just depends on what Lib Dems can concede or help Corbyn with.
By B0ycey
#15034062
JohnRawls wrote:Honestly irrelevant. Corbyn is not going to make a coalition with Tories under any circumstances. He might be able to negotiate with Lib Dems for some concessions for his support if they get 1st place. Lib Dems have their priorities straight, they outright said that they will cancel Brexit and to deliver it they will need Labour support probably. Corbyn can negotiate with Lib Dems but not with Tories. Greens and SNP will join Lib Dems to cancel Brexit without any conditions. About NI parties, i am not sure. (Probably)

So chances of Corbyn support Johnson in a no deal is 0% while chances of Corbyn supporting Lib Dems just depends on what Lib Dems can concede or help Corbyn with.


Who mentioned a Corbyn/Johnson coalition???

The remain parties are the majority but only in coalition. The biggest party is the Tories and this will remain so in a GE as they are the 'only' major Brexit party with actual policies away from Brexit. So it is a Lib Dem/ Labour coalition that will occur and who leads that depends on who is the biggest party of the two. :roll:
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#15034066
B0ycey wrote:Who mentioned a Corbyn/Johnson coalition???

The remain parties are the majority but only in coalition. The biggest party is the Tories and this will remain so in a GE as they are the 'only' major Brexit party with actual policies away from Brexit. So it is a Lib Dem/ Labour coalition that will occur and who leads that depends on who is the biggest party of the two. :roll:


Unlikely, i think that they will also need SNP and Greens on board at least to cancel Brexit. But i think that it is doable. The main parties of such coalition in the face of Lib Dems and Labour is also not something that is inherently bad. A mix of their policies might be able to actually start fixing true problems.
By B0ycey
#15034067
SNP votes might be needed, but if they are it will be a confidence and supply agreement as they no doubt would ask for a IndRef2 if asked to be part of coalition.

The objective is to stop Brexit. Once that's done another GE could be needed again to form a functional government. If Corbyn steps down Labour could win big actually as he is divisive in public opinion.
By SolarCross
#15034078
B0ycey wrote:To be fair your poll is a week old and the Lib Dems announced this policy today. No doubt to separate themselves from Labour who are becoming off the fence more and more everyday taking votes off them. Nonetheless whether they will "Hulk Smash" the next election is debatable. But as they perform better than the polls everytime there is a vote since Brexit means it isn't unthinkable that they could be the main party in coalition after the GE. Especially as Corbyn is divisive.

#InSwinsonWeTrust

The illib undems just had guy vernosestud over saying europe needs to become an empire. I am not sure how well that will play with the illibs base when they finally put two and two together and realise that their children are in increasing danger of one day being conscripted by the 4th Reich for Operation Barbarossa 2.0.
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By JohnRawls
#15034080
SolarCross wrote:The illib undems just had guy vernosestud over saying europe needs to become an empire. I am not sure how well that will play with the illibs base when they finally put two and two together and realise that their children are in increasing danger of one day being conscripted by the 4th Reich for Operation Barbarossa 2.0.


Image
User avatar
By Nonsense
#15034084
SolarCross wrote:The illib undems just had guy vernosestud over saying europe needs to become an empire. I am not sure how well that will play with the illibs base when they finally put two and two together and realise that their children are in increasing danger of one day being conscripted by the 4th Reich for Operation Barbarossa 2.0.


Come election day, minds will suddenly adjust to the reality at that time.

The electorate will,at that point, polarise their thoughts as to how they vote.

All of the fractional politics will have reached the end of the process of rancour over leaving europe, the 'blame' game will commence in the approach to the election.

The electorate come to the fore,all the predictions by pollsters, pundits & self-styled 'experts' on the BBC will be proven wrong as usual.

There will be no new concensus, the divisions have always been there,always will be until the system changes, there's little incentive to be radical in the existing Westminster set up before that fundamental change happens.

People will, in the meantime, decide who was to blame, who is best to meet the challenges ahead with our new-found freedom & how that will be managed domestically.
I have to say that, spending wise, there's little policy difference, the Tories have vastly increased the national debt & Labour would vastly expand the deficit, along with higher taxes of every kind, including 'stealth' taxes, those in their little 'schemes' conjured up to benefit a few & make everyone else pay more.

Further austerity is the price the poor have to pay for these policies, which never affect the rich or better-off, the notion that, 'we are all in it together' is, quite frankly, a cynical lie.

On balance, although people have no negative thoughts on europeans, the E.U is a different matter, with the ambit towards creating a federal superstate within the grasp of the europhile elite, the 'dream' will eventually turn sour.
It promised much,but has delivered little over the time it has existed & most of that which has been accomplished most probably would have anyway without the E.U.

Only the national co-operation amongst members in a few areas have achieved modest success, the reality is, the gruel has been spread very thinly indeed among the poor & concentrated in too few hands.

I think any fool can make the apparition of a successful economy,by running huge deficits or by creating a crippling national debt, doing so without those negatives in a fair way, is impossible,so the poor must pay whilst the rest enjoy the life that their political appointees cook up for them.
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#15034147
Its funny how before Johnson i didn't really see a way to cancel Brexit but now he pulled out an unthinkable Brexyeet option :excited:
User avatar
By Nonsense
#15034207
SolarCross wrote:https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1172947113677926401

lol


Snap!! :lol: :lol:
By Presvias
#15034282
Nonsense wrote:Apparently, the Guardian publish a current Opinion\Observer Poll that shows the Tories are on 37%(+ 1%), Lab 25% Lib Dems 16%(- 1%) & Brexit Party 13%(no change), suggesting that the Lib Dems 'gains' are softening.

I would expect that the Tories could gain a significant, even if temporary increase in their share of the vote,if BoJo extricates the U.K from the E.U on 31 October.
Depending on how the public see that the opposition 'remain' parties have behaved in parliament in respect of leaving the E.U, that 'gain' may well harden & even increase somewhat.


Yeah but that's one poll vs a longer term poll of several polls isn't it.

And even they're far from accurate.

Idk what the future holds, ultimately I want what's best for the country as long as it doesn't hurt others, and I figure that no deal Brexit doesn't just hurt us, it effects our Irish neighbours and possibly the French too, plus it'll have lesser effects on most other EU27 countries.

Then there's the Falklands to think of. The EU funds cleanup operations to keep the world's largest penguin colony from getting covered in oil and stuff like that. There's no way the govt are going to continue that according to all the noises they've made.

Think of the penguins. :)

Seriously though, this whole mess is completely contrived by the nasty party and their infighting. There is absolutely no need for any of this utter rubbish.

Whilst a communist society isn't my first choice, I fully respect their valid and insightful comments on this mess. The fact is that an outsider's perspective can often yield a much more unbiased and poignant critique than we can, when we're stuck in our ideological trenches.
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