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By Presvias
#15041486
Atlantis wrote:Absolutely, :up:

It's the death rattle of the Empire, music to my ears.


Agreed, now sort out the Orbanist trash and other populist far rightists and you'll be golden.

Oh wait, you think we should copy populist policies... maybe not the death rattle of the Empire; but it might be the death of the EU if you had your way.

Thankfully, others in power in the EU know much better.
By Rich
#15041492
So what is going to happen? What indeed is happening now. I have no crystal ball, but I can't see how Liesohn can get away with doing a May. Talking tough then at the last minute revealing a total surrender. I doubt the EU is going to fold, could be wrong about that, but I doubt it. in which case its a positivity contest, both sides competing to appear the most committed to getting a deal. Both sides wanting to offer as a big a compromise as possible that they trust the other side will not accept.

I think that after becoming leader Liesohn sought to run down the clock, but since Liesohn made his proposals that its the EU that is now trying to run down the clock. What will happen when the clock runs out, I don't know, but I'm cautiously optimistic that this is going to be fun.
By B0ycey
#15041493
Rich wrote:So what is going to happen? What indeed is happening now. I have no crystal ball, but I can't see how Liesohn can get away with doing a May. Talking tough then at the last minute revealing a total surrender. I doubt the EU is going to fold, could be wrong about that, but I doubt it. in which case its a positivity contest, both sides competing to appear the most committed to getting a deal. Both sides wanting to offer as a big a compromise as possible that they trust the other side will not accept.

I think that after becoming leader Liesohn sought to run down the clock, but since Liesohn made his proposals that its the EU that is now trying to run down the clock. What will happen when the clock runs out, I don't know, but I'm cautiously optimistic that this is going to be fun.


You're forgetting that the Tories had already agreed to the Irish Sea border, we're just about to sign it off and then the DUP expressed their disdain and everything went south.

If the DUP sign this off it wasn't the Tories who uturned actually. Although I don't know why it has taken the idea of Irish approval to remain in the CU to break the impasse. Seems a simple solution that should have been brought forward last year.
By Atlantis
#15041496
Presvias wrote:Agreed, now sort out the Orbanist trash and other populist far rightists and you'll be golden.


The Empire made the mistake of suppressing segments of the popular will. That might appear appealing because it saves you the discomfort of having to deal with these people in parliament. Brexit was their revenge. Much better to let them embarrass themselves in parliament so they are confined to the dustbins of history, not by Imperial order but by popular will.

@Rich, I don't think Johnson knows what will happen. Remember, the Brexocritters don't have a plan. He just plays it by ear. Yes, the good ship Britannia drifts in the open sea without a helmsman at the wheel, unless you think of the other helmsman on the other shore of the big pond, who stands ready to gobble you all up.

Image
By Presvias
#15041498
Atlantis wrote:The Empire made the mistake of suppressing segments of the popular will.


No, they went along with it, just like you propose.. :roll:

That might appear appealing because it saves you the discomfort of having to deal with these people in parliament. Brexit was their revenge. Much better to let them embarrass themselves in parliament so they are confined to the dustbins of history, not by Imperial order but by popular will.


..Just like hypocritical neoliberals who complain about immigrants re aping far right policies, then complain about others incl in the UK doing same. Yes, you're right, their place is embarrassment in the dustbin where the Blairs of the world are concerned. Or Cameron. Or May. Or loads of other Europeans on the Continent.

The definition of madness...
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By Beren
#15041507
Rich wrote:I can't see how Liesohn can get away with doing a May.

An NI-only backstop wouldn't be such a high price Leavers and Brexitters wouldn't pay when the whole thing seems to hang on a thread, they'd even sacrifice the whole UK for it actually, which is the point here. But even if Corbyn won or became PM somehow, they'd undermine and overthrow his government by any means necessary, like it happened in Chile with Allende.
By Presvias
#15041508
Beren wrote:An NI-only backstop wouldn't be such a high price Leavers and Brexitters wouldn't pay when the whole thing seems to hang on a thread, they'd even sacrifice the whole UK for it actually, which is the point here. But even if Corbyn won or became PM somehow, they'd undermine and overthrow his government by any means necessary, like it happened in Chile under Allende.


That is exactly true actually, but they're not the only ones hanging on a thread, or worse, it's pretty sad really; it could seriously hurt Ireland and the EU too if this happens.

What can we do? Hopefully, soon your country will be shot of far right scum in govt as well... it is sad to see your great country subjugated under thar little creep Orban..
User avatar
By Beren
#15041510
Presvias wrote:That is exactly true actually, but they're not the only ones hanging on a thhread, it's pretty sad really; it could seriously hurt Ireland and the EU too if this happens.

What can we do? Hopefully, soon your country will be shot of far right scum in govt as well... it is sad to see your great country subjugated under thar little creep Orban..

Subjugated like that is nothing special in case of Hungary unfortunately, but the Allende treatment would be a brand new experience to the Brits for sure. Even Brexit should be revealing.
By Rugoz
#15041514
Beren wrote:An NI-only backstop wouldn't be such a high price Leavers and Brexitters wouldn't pay when the whole thing seems to hang on a thread, they'd even sacrifice the whole UK for it actually, which is the point here. But even if Corbyn won or became PM somehow, they'd undermine and overthrow his government by any means necessary, like it happened in Chile with Allende.


Wut? :lol:
User avatar
By Nonsense
#15041533
B0ycey wrote:The difference this time is that NI would be able to opt out of it. Although someone needs to tell Johnson that even if the DUP are on board with this along with the ERG he doesn't hold a majority and so this optimism will be short lived. This will be voted down in Westminster and so he will have to request an extention. Nonetheless at least their is hope for a deal if the Tories win a general election.


Labour are in the same camp as the Lib Dems, they oppose Brexit,in effect, their last manifesto pledge to implement the referendum result was a blatant lie.

Now, even at this moment in time, they are being dragged against their will into accepting BoJo's deal,yet still want to overturn that by demanding a 'final say' referendum, be put back to the people-before-an election.
Well, the people voiced their 'final say' back in 2016,when they instructed the government(not parliament)to take us out of europe, that instruction is as valid today, as it was then & it will be so even if there were an election tomorrow.

Their BENN Act, is simply a ransom note to the government in it's present circumstance, to get it to do their(Labour's)bidding , for which they could never get through parliament any other way, certainly not by an election & if the demands in that note are not met then their abuse of parliament to force a punishment of BoJo will end in failure.
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By BeesKnee5
#15041543
Nonsense wrote:Labour are in the same camp as the Lib Dems, they oppose Brexit,in effect, their last manifesto pledge to implement the referendum result was a blatant lie.

Now, even at this moment in time, they are being dragged against their will into accepting BoJo's deal,yet still want to overturn that by demanding a 'final say' referendum, be put back to the people-before-an election.
Well, the people voiced their 'final say' back in 2016,when they instructed the government(not parliament)to take us out of europe, that instruction is as valid today, as it was then & it will be so even if there were an election tomorrow.

Their BENN Act, is simply a ransom note to the government in it's present circumstance, to get it to do their(Labour's)bidding , for which they could never get through parliament any other way, certainly not by an election & if the demands in that note are not met then their abuse of parliament to force a punishment of BoJo will end in failure.


Three observations,
If the referendum instructed the government then they are out of luck as no government can tie the hands of a subsequent government. As soon as the government changed then any validity is lost.

Parliament are sovereign, a government that cannot command a majority in parliament loses the ability to implement and control policy. The Benn act is simply a manifestation of this, it's not Labour dictating terms as they also do not command a majority.

Anyone who thinks the Tory party care about getting the best deal are missing the point. The pressure isn't to get labour to accept, it's too ensure they are seen as rejecting it to strengthen the Tory position in an election. It's what the Tories want and they are succeeding.
By Presvias
#15041605
Support grows for a new Brexit poll amid fears over Johnson’s plan

The Observer Brexit
Support grows for a new Brexit poll amid fears over Johnson’s plan
DUP raises doubts on customs union, while Labour says it will whip MPs to support a second referendum
Toby Helm and Michael Savage

Sat 12 Oct 2019 21.06 BST Last modified on Sun 13 Oct 2019 00.00 BST
Edinburgh University students campaigning for a second referendum. Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian
Pro-remain MPs predicted on Saturday that they were gaining sufficient cross-party support to secure a second Brexit referendum as fresh doubts were raised over whether Boris Johnson can secure a deal with the EU that can pass through parliament.

No-deal Brexit will wreck Tories’ reputation as party of business, says Lidington

The push for a second vote appeared to be gaining momentum before what promises to be a dramatic “super Saturday” showdown in parliament next weekend. That emergency House of Commons sitting, called by Johnson, will be held after a critical EU summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. It will coincide with a pro-referendum march through London, which organisers say a million people could join.

On Saturday the chances of Johnson securing a deal that will win the crucial support of the 10 DUP MPs appeared to be in growing doubt as Nigel Dodds, the party’s leader in Westminster, questioned key elements of the proposed deal – including the idea of Northern Ireland being in some form of post-Brexit customs partnership with the EU.

“Northern Ireland must stay in a full UK customs union, full stop,” Dodds said. Asked if the ideas that are reportedly being discussed behind closed doors by the UK government and the EU could work, he added: “No, it cannot work because Northern Ireland has to remain fully part of the UK customs union.”

For Johnson to stand any chance of getting a deal through parliament, he will need the DUP to be firmly behind it. Many Tory MPs in the hardline pro-Brexit European Reform Group say they will take their lead from the DUP.

Nigel Dodds and Arlene Foster
Nigel Dodds and Arlene Foster’s support for any Brexit deal will be crucial to the prime minister. Photograph: Rebecca Black/PA
With the hopes of securing any deal on a knife edge, Labour is understood to be ready to whip its MPs to back a second referendum. “We believe we are getting closer to the majority it needs,” said a source involved in the effort. “The task now is maximising that majority and seeing whether Johnson finally concedes that it is a way out for him too.”

While there is likely to be more support from Tories and ex-Tories for a second referendum if the government fails to secure a deal, and the alternative is a no-deal Brexit, key figures say plans for a referendum on any deal the prime minister returns with is also gaining support.

On Saturday night the Labour MP Peter Kyle said the signs were that a Johnson deal would be bad for the economy and that sufficient MPs would insist on it being subject to a confirmatory public vote. “If Johnson brings back a deal that would deliver less frictionless access to European markets than Theresa May’s deal offered – and that seems to be precisely what is on offer – the idea of that getting through the Commons on its own two feet would be akin to a suicide mission,” he said.

“If a deal like that is offered we will amend it so it can only come into effect after a confirmatory referendum in which the options would be to leave on those terms or Remain. I have no doubt from soundings I have taken that an amendment to secure a confirmatory vote would be successful.”

Pro-referendum MPs are also examining other possibilities including reviving May’s deal and making that subject to a second referendum.

Nick Boles, the former Tory MP who quit over Brexit, said he would back any deal that the EU accepted but made clear that should no deal emerge from the EU council, a second referendum would be needed. “I have been very reluctant to accept that a referendum might be necessary to break the logjam,” he said. “But if Johnson is unable or unwilling to agree a deal with the EU next week, we will be left with no alternative. A snap election will resolve nothing and could prolong the agony.

“Instead we should hold a referendum which offers people the choice between a soft Brexit deal and remaining in the EU. Parliament should pass all the necessary legislation to implement the deal so, if people vote again to Leave, Brexit would happen immediately and require no further votes in parliament.”

Keir Starmer says he will insist on a confirmatory vote. Photograph: Sean Smith/The Guardian
Paul Masterton, a Scottish Tory MP, said: “My instinct on this is the numbers are there for a second referendum if [Johnson] doesn’t bring back a deal, but they aren’t if he does.”

Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, told a conference on Saturday: “If Johnson does manage to negotiate a deal… then we will insist that it is put back to the people in a confirmatory vote. If he can’t – or I should say won’t – get a deal … we will take whatever steps are necessary to prevent our country crashing out of the EU without a deal.”

If Johnson has not secured a deal by 19 October, he is obliged under the Benn act to ask the EU for an extension to UK membership until 31 January. Starmer said Labour would ensure he complied with the law. “I have heard some cabinet ministers suggest that Johnson could send a second letter to the EU saying he doesn’t want an extension. That’s the equivalent of attaching a Post-it note to divorce papers saying ‘only kidding’! It’s a ridiculous idea. So, let me be clear: if no deal is secured by this time next week, Boris Johnson must seek and accept an extension.”

Johnson is expected to update the cabinet on Sunday afternoon. A Downing Street source said: “We’ve always wanted a deal. It is good to see progress but we will wait to see if this is a genuine breakthrough. We are a long way from a final deal. The weekend and next week remain critical to leaving with a deal on 31 October. We remain prepared to leave without a deal on 31 October.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rs-pm-plan
By Presvias
#15041609
noemon wrote:Spelman amendment has passed, no-deal has been rejected.



All of the amendments except for Grieve's and Cooper's are political instead of legal amendments apparently since they do not set out parliamentary dates and timelines.


It is important to remember this from months ago..
By B0ycey
#15041614
Nonsense wrote:Labour are in the same camp as the Lib Dems, they oppose Brexit,in effect, their last manifesto pledge to implement the referendum result was a blatant lie.

Now, even at this moment in time, they are being dragged against their will into accepting BoJo's deal,yet still want to overturn that by demanding a 'final say' referendum, be put back to the people-before-an election.
Well, the people voiced their 'final say' back in 2016,when they instructed the government(not parliament)to take us out of europe, that instruction is as valid today, as it was then & it will be so even if there were an election tomorrow.

Their BENN Act, is simply a ransom note to the government in it's present circumstance, to get it to do their(Labour's)bidding , for which they could never get through parliament any other way, certainly not by an election & if the demands in that note are not met then their abuse of parliament to force a punishment of BoJo will end in failure.


Labour understand that Brexit is a colossal fuck up and will vote it down because it violates their red lines (which are impossible to achieve) that were in their last manifesto pledge FYI. Therefore I cannot see this passing parliament as why would they want to associate themselves to such a clusterfuck?

The only solution now is a general election. However this time there is a deal that the Irish nationalists support so should the GE lead to a leave parliament gaining power, a path forward to break the impasse is visible. And for that we all should be grateful.
By B0ycey
#15041617
Beren wrote:But even if Corbyn won or became PM somehow, they'd undermine and overthrow his government by any means necessary, like it happened in Chile with Allende.


The army isn't going to overthrow a Corbyn government. You have been reading too many SolarCross posts. Although sure the Brexiteers will undermine his government like he does to the Tory government today. Which is why after the next GE the forecoming government needs to have a working majority. And the only way Corbyn is going to achieve that is by coalition with the Lib Dems.

Corbyn needs to be better and more diplomatic than his PoFo supporters. I doubt he is going to woo Swinson by calling her a Yellow Tory with Twitter feeds every chance he gets.
User avatar
By Beren
#15041640
B0ycey wrote:The army isn't going to overthrow a Corbyn government. You have been reading too many SolarCross posts.

I don't mean that and I was laughing at SC when he suggested that. I meant the UK would get regime-changed and it's being regime-changed actually.
User avatar
By Nonsense
#15041641
B0ycey wrote:Labour understand that Brexit is a colossal fuck up and will vote it down because it violates their red lines (which are impossible to achieve) that were in their last manifesto pledge FYI. Therefore I cannot see this passing parliament as why would they want to associate themselves to such a clusterfuck?

The only solution now is a general election. However this time there is a deal that the Irish nationalists support so should the GE lead to a leave parliament gaining power, a path forward to break the impasse is visible. And for that we all should be grateful.



You are beginning to think logically BOycey,but Labour are in the thick of that situation,just as much as the SNP or Lib Dems, you are correct though, a general election should have been called sooner,of course A50 would still be on the law books.

STARMER is still thinking they can demand a 'confirmatory' referendum,for a party that has opposed the 2016 referendum, it's sickening hypocrisy, not only for their denial of that result, but because of their stance on parliamentary 'sovereignty', for which any confirmatory' vote,according to that doctrine, should only be held by MP's in parliament.
Also, where do they think. other than the ballot box, can they obtain a mandate for such a phoney 'referendum', which, in effect, would be a 2nd referendum with a 'remain' option, therefore, it would not be a 'confirmatory' referendum, but a repeat one, in order to revoke the 2016 referendum & then with those political gymnastics they would also have to revoke the A50 Act of Parliament.

In short, they,or the current political makeup in the Commons has no legitimacy of of it's own accord, which is why you are correct in calling for an election,that is the only democratic route in which to alter the direction in which the referendum result made an imperative.
Last edited by Nonsense on 13 Oct 2019 11:22, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
By Beren
#15041643
Rugoz wrote:Wut? :lol:

I don't mean it would literally happen as it happened in Chile with Allende, it's just an analogy. It would rather happen in a way fitting Britain, of course, but it still would be a coup basically.

Presvias wrote:What are your thoughts on the short lived Hungarian 'uprising' in 56 just out of curiousity?

I think it was a good thing at the beginning, but it got screwed due to improper leadership later. In my opinion most of the country got relieved when it was over finally and they were pleased with later developments under János Kádár.
User avatar
By Potemkin
#15041649
Beren wrote:I don't mean it would literally happen as it happened in Chile with Allende, it's just an analogy. It would rather happen in a way fitting Britain, of course, but it still would be a coup basically.

A Very British Coup ;)

I think it was a good thing at the beginning, but it got screwed due to improper leadership later. In my opinion most of the country got relieved when it was over finally and they were pleased with later developments under János Kádár.

Kadar, for all his personal deficiencies, turned out to be one of the greatest leaders Hungary has ever had. He was probably as astonished at that as everybody else was. Lol.
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