[foxdemon]

No twitter account...


But what Putin said also means he wants Iran out of Syria. The Israelis will want to kiss him.

[Rich]

Looks like Erdogan got played by Putin; and nobody is going to feel sorry for him.

Erdogan got played by The West, Israel and Saudi Arabia. But really all he needed to do was read my posts on PoFo. I said before the war, even started when removal of Assad was just an abstract possibility, that when it came to the crunch that Israel would veto the removal of Assad. A unitary majority rule Sunni Arab state in Syria, with any kind of legitimacy would be a nightmare for Israel in the long term. It could easily lead to the fall of Jordan to Sunni Arab radicals.

One thing that I didn't I predict was that the Saudis number one priority would be screwing over the Muslim Brotherhood. And of course after the fall of Morsi that also become the number one priority of the Egyptian government, not that Egypt was ever a significant player in Syria. Even so the Assad regime was incredibly weak, and despite the support of Iran and various Shia militias and despite the oppostion of Israel and Saudi to a Muslim Brotherhood victory, it looked like Assad was about to collapse. They didn't even seem to be able to secure Latakia.

So at that point Russia came in with Israel's blessing. Anyone who thinks Russia's initial air deployments were made without Israel's blessing, hasn't been paying attention. So at some point it dawned on Erdogan that Assad wasn't going to fall. I mean even the Sunni Arab fighters on the ground were more interested in fighting each other than Assad. So Erdogan remembered Turkey's overriding interest which was of course stopping the Kurds. This is why Assad says he wants to recapture every inch of Syrian territory. This is not domestic propaganda but a promise to Erdogan that he if victorious he will not allow de-facto Kurdish independence.

So understand this Erdogan has long given up on removing Assad, eradicating the de-facto PKK State in North Eastern Syria is his now his sole goal. But Assad has tried to play both sides, allowing the Kurds de-facto independence, militarily allying with them, attacking the Sunni Arab rebels while promising Erdogan that he will eliminate the Kurds. Erdogan knows full well that Assad is trying to play him, hence his various incursions and guarantees to the Sunni Arab rebels including Al Qaeda.

As I said Russia did try to take back some of the large non Kurdish areas grabbed by the PKK with massive western air support, but suffered heavy losses in very short space of time. Turkey, Assad, Russia, Iran, the Iraqi government all want the SDK out of Syria's western oil fields. The idea that the West can protect this position long term, using a supply route through Turkey, using planes flying from Turkish airbases is for the birds.

[Beren]

Well, it seemed to work that way when America invaded Iraq and Afghanistan. Isn’t NATO based on “all for one and one for all”?

It certainly didn't work that way when America invaded Iraq, and Article 5 was invoked and NATO went to Afghanistan as a response to 9/11, not because America decided to go to war. Turkey has to deal with the Kurds alone for sure.

[Atlantis]

No twitter account...


But what Putin said also means he wants Iran out of Syria. The Israelis will want to kiss him.

No, he said he wants all foreign troops out of Syria that aren't there by the invitation of the Syrian government. So far, Assad has always welcomed the Iranians.

Euronews reports that Turkey uses Arab militias including Al Qaeda and ISIS fighters for its invasion of Syria. If even mainstream media now admit that Turkey is on the side of Al Qaeda and ISIS, Erdogan is out there on his own.

Kurds strike deal with Syrian regime as US prepares to withdraw troops in Syria

@Rich, Ergodan got played by Putin not by the West. Putin let him believe that he wouldn't oppose the Turkish invasion in order to get the Americans out of Syria. But now it looks like Putin will support Assad in retaking the whole of Syria, including Turkish-held territory. The deal between Assad and the Kurds was even brokered by Putin's man in Syria.

If Assad wanted to repay Erdogan in kind, he would now empower the YPG to help the PKK fight for independence.

[Beren]

Ergodan got played by Putin not by the West.

The West can't play anyone anyway since Trump's president.

[Atlantis]

The West can't play anyone anyway since Trump's president.

True, with Trump, the West can only play against itself.

[jimjam]

Ah, the New York Times, flagship Capitalist paper of the Elites for ''all the news that's print to fit''

Their ''investigation'' didn't obtain any information independently as they slyly try to suggest to the credulous reader, but relied on anonymous network of sources (who are absolutely counted on to be members of some countries State Intelligence Services and/or Private Intelligence contractors) upon which to base this nothingburger of a story, almost on the level of the fake chemical warfare attacks in the Syrian conflict earlier, or the famous Kuwaiti ''babies pulled out of incubators by Iraqi soldiers'' bullshit story.

Come on, are you going to pass along stories to benefit the head-choppers and liver eater Islamists fighting in Syria but planning on conquering the world eventually? Is this what Liberalism is reduced to, carrying water for Islamic reactionaries because you want to bring down your own decaying civilization and replace it with their barbarism?

They know we're soft. They know we have our heart strings pulled by these tales of callous and cruel Moscovites bombing the shit out of entirely innocent brown skinned civilians. Don't buy it.

Oh My! A NYT hater. If they see NYT ……………. it's automatically wrong. Stick with the Make America Great Again Tribune my friend. You will be more at ease. And ………….. don't forget to take your meds ……. you seem a tad over excited.

[Beren]

True, with Trump, the West can only play against itself.

Since Trump's president the West is like caught with its pants down.

[JohnRawls]

And you're the filling in said sandwich with the stuff you wrote, it's disgusting and wrong, but the worst part is YOU KNOW it's wrong because you're smarter, and better than that... what can I say? Just being honest..

Sacrifices need to be made to turn the situation around as a plus for Europe. If we support the Kurds then we will simply create another failed state in the face of Turkey eventually. Europe is not obliged to flagellate itself for the benefit of others. There are significant downsides for us if we support the Kurds. We are not also on the Erdogans side either because he is merely a tool right now that can't be fully trusted. This is just the reality of the situation that came out of his previous and present behaviour.

Since an opportunity presented itself, we need to make sure that the refugees get moved out from Turkey to the northern Regions of Syria. Preferably all of them even those that don't come out of Syria. Hell, we can even start repatriating some ourselves. Funnily enough Assad is probably our ally with this. Erdogan can be forced while Putin can be bargained with. We have serious leverage in Ukraine on him and Erdogan can be forced with sanctions or political support depending on how the situation develops or how fucked he will be in the next couple of weeks.

[Drlee]

It is a hard world and though I do not entirely agree with @JohnRawls from an American perspective I can certainly see the wisdom of his position from a European one.

"Those" folks are going to go somewhere and the somewhere where they would rather go is Europe. If the EU fails it will, in all likelihood, be because of its absurd immigration policies. From day one of the EU the virtual open borders policy has placed the union in jeopardy. Certainly it is the overwhelming reason the UK (an extremely important player) has decided to leave. Yes I know that these refugees are "other" people but it does not matter. The countries of Europe are getting very tired of poorly controlled immigration and rightfully so.

The US and the republican party's inability/unwillingness to control its president is the reason this is happening now. I see no reason why Europe should feel compelled to clean up the mess we (Americans) caused. Or, for that matter, choose to profit by it.

[Beren]

It is a hard world and though I do not entirely agree with @JohnRawls from an American perspective I can certainly see the wisdom of his position from a European one.

I agree with this. Erdogan is a useful tool for Europe, but I don't see how Trump's move serves US interests in the region. Even if he only cares about pulling out of Syria, he's doing it in an un-American way letting down and selling out utmost loyal and worthy allies for nothing, and he's explaining it with such a nonsense as they weren't there with them in Normandy while yelling empty threats at Turkey.

[Zionist Nationalist]

I think it may eventually turn out to be a good move at least from Israeli perspective
Assad army is now moving to the north hopefully at some point there will be clashes between SAA and Turkish army/FSA
From the Turkish perspective the operation makes sense I would the same if I was Erdogan
after the operation will be complete Turkey will move in alot of Sunni refugees who oppose Assad thus ensuring that the war will go on and that Assad will not take hold of north Syria at least in some of it

[Beren]

I think it may eventually turn out to be a good move at least from Israeli perspective
Assad army is now moving to the north hopefully at some point there will be clashes between SAA and Turkish army/FSA
From the Turkish perspective the operation makes sense I would the same if I was Erdogan
after the operation will be complete Turkey will move in alot of Sunni refugees who oppose Assad thus ensuring that the war will go on and that Assad will not take hold of north Syria at least in some of it

So maybe everyone benefits except for the US, the Kurds, and Syria that becomes a battlefield again.

[Atlantis]

"Those" folks are going to go somewhere and the somewhere where they would rather go is Europe.

@JohnRawls, please stop taking Erogan's lies at face value.

Just to spell it out:

- The Turkish invasion will not reduce the number of refugees.

- The Turkish invasion will bring the war to a region in Syria that has been relatively peaceful.

- The Turkish invasion will create 1 to 2 million new refugees.

- Ethnic cleansing and the forced resettlement of Sunni Arabs in Kurdish territory by the occupier will not work and violates every international law imaginable.

- Erdogan with his Jihadist proxies always was the biggest single problem and the reason for the Syrian civil war and the refugee crisis.

- The Turkish invasion will lead to a revival of ISIS and Sunni terror in the ME and in Europe.

- Erdogan's plan from the very beginning was to use the refugees for territorial expansion and for making Europe pay.

Just stop spreading Erdogan's lies.

[Atlantis]

deleted

[foxdemon]

No, he said he wants all foreign troops out of Syria that aren't there by the invitation of the Syrian government. So far, Assad has always welcomed the Iranians.

Assad wants Iran out because they are too strong relative to his Syrian forces and he wants control of his country back. The Russians will want them out also because Syria will never be stable while they remain. Assad is Russia’s only real ally in the region and they want to keep their naval base to support their eastern med activities. Two is company, three is a crowd, as they say.

Euronews reports that Turkey uses Arab militias including Al Qaeda and ISIS fighters for its invasion of Syria. If even mainstream media now admit that Turkey is on the side of Al Qaeda and ISIS, Erdogan is out there on his own.

That has been obvious for years. Historically, various Turkish dynasties have made good use of religious fanatic warriors. Why would they change now?


Anyway, it remains to be seen if Putin will pull of his peacemaking. As I pointed out in an earlier post, the Turkish war machine is locally stronger than Russian and their allied forces. Russia has commitments in Ukraine and those Far East Islands that Japan wants back and so the Russians can’t bring all their military power to bear. The Turks are operating from their home base and can use everything they have got. If Erdogan decides to just fight it out, the Turks will win.

[Sivad]

I love how the liberals are attacking Trump for taking the country out of an unnecessary and immoral war.

[Atlantis]

Assad wants Iran out because they are too strong relative to his Syrian forces and he wants control of his country back. The Russians will want them out also because Syria will never be stable while they remain. Assad is Russia’s only real ally in the region and they want to keep their naval base to support their eastern med activities. Two is company, three is a crowd, as they say.

I don't know the Assad regime well enough to tell if this is true. I think Iran is a valuable ally to Assad because the Shia militias can do on the ground what the Russians can't do and because Syria has precious little allies in the greater ME.

That has been obvious for years. Historically, various Turkish dynasties have made good use of religious fanatic warriors. Why would they change now?

Yes, but Western propaganda supported by mainstream media has always endorsed Erdogan's narrative because Turkey is a Nato ally. If they start to openly report about Turkish links with ISIS, that represents a significant change.

Anyway, it remains to be seen if Putin will pull of his peacemaking. As I pointed out in an earlier post, the Turkish war machine is locally stronger than Russian and their allied forces. Russia has commitments in Ukraine and those Far East Islands that Japan wants back and so the Russians can’t bring all their military power to bear. The Turks are operating from their home base and can use everything they have got. If Erdogan decides to just fight it out, the Turks will win.

Japan isn't going to take the Northern Islands back by force and the resources Russia uses to support the separatists in Ukraine are relatively minor. Putin's greatest price is a geopolitical role in the ME. Since the time of the Czars, the Russians have dreamed about extending their influence into the ME. By a clever combination of limited but effective military missions and intelligent diplomacy, Putin has achieved more than any previous Russian leader.

Russia is still a military superpower. Turkey wouldn't stand a snowball's chance in hell in a military conflict with Russia. Even Erdogan isn't mad enough to even try. Putin is going soft on Erdogan because easing Turkey out off Nato is even more important to him than helping Assad capture a few more villages.

[noemon]

@JohnRawls, please stop taking Erogan's lies at face value.

Just to spell it out:

- The Turkish invasion will not reduce the number of refugees.

- The Turkish invasion will bring the war to a region in Syria that has been relatively peaceful.

- The Turkish invasion will create 1 to 2 million new refugees.

- Ethnic cleansing and the forced resettlement of Sunni Arabs in Kurdish territory by the occupier will not work and violates every international law imaginable.

- Erdogan with his Jihadist proxies always was the biggest single problem and the reason for the Syrian civil war and the refugee crisis.

- The Turkish invasion will lead to a revival of ISIS and Sunni terror in the ME and in Europe.

- Erdogan's plan from the very beginning was to use the refugees for territorial expansion and for making Europe pay.

Just stop spreading Erdogan's lies.

Precisely, I can only assume that its naivety on John’s behalf to assume that Erdogan is going to solve the migrant problem instead of make it 10 times worse. But even if he were to do that, the West cannot let him ethnic cleanse her allies to achieve that. Thats is quite hilarious from the get go. Military sanctions are not enough either, full economic sanctions should be imposed across the board against Turkey for his invasion of EU territorial waters in Cyprus and his invasion of Syria. Erdogan is currently occupying EU territory and some here are actually talking about letting him carry on...that is the same as arguing that you should let your wife's rapist carry on what he’s doing and hopefully kill her so that you don't have to live with the shame of looking at her.

[Atlantis]

Precisely, I can only assume that its naivety on John’s behalf to assume that Erdogan is going to solve the migrant problem instead of make it 10 times worse.

I don't really understand John's position on this, I can only speculate that it has something to do with East Europeans liking for autocrats and dislike of refugees.

Erdogan is currently occupying EU territory ...

Turkish-occupied Cyprus never joined the EU. Greek Cypriots made sure of that.