Atlantis wrote:Looks like Erdogan got played by Putin; and nobody is going to feel sorry for him.
Erdogan got played by The West, Israel and Saudi Arabia. But really all he needed to do was read my posts on PoFo. I said before the war, even started when removal of Assad was just an abstract possibility, that when it came to the crunch that Israel would veto the removal of Assad. A unitary majority rule Sunni Arab state in Syria, with any kind of legitimacy would be a nightmare for Israel in the long term. It could easily lead to the fall of Jordan to Sunni Arab radicals.
One thing that I didn't I predict was that the Saudis number one priority would be screwing over the Muslim Brotherhood. And of course after the fall of Morsi that also become the number one priority of the Egyptian government, not that Egypt was ever a significant player in Syria. Even so the Assad regime was incredibly weak, and despite the support of Iran and various Shia militias and despite the oppostion of Israel and Saudi to a Muslim Brotherhood victory, it looked like Assad was about to collapse. They didn't even seem to be able to secure Latakia.
So at that point Russia came in with Israel's blessing. Anyone who thinks Russia's initial air deployments were made without Israel's blessing, hasn't been paying attention. So at some point it dawned on Erdogan that Assad wasn't going to fall. I mean even the Sunni Arab fighters on the ground were more interested in fighting each other than Assad. So Erdogan remembered Turkey's overriding interest which was of course stopping the Kurds. This is why Assad says he wants to recapture every inch of Syrian territory. This is not domestic propaganda but a promise to Erdogan that he if victorious he will not allow de-facto Kurdish independence.
So understand this Erdogan has long given up on removing Assad, eradicating the de-facto PKK State in North Eastern Syria is his now his sole goal. But Assad has tried to play both sides, allowing the Kurds de-facto independence, militarily allying with them, attacking the Sunni Arab rebels while promising Erdogan that he will eliminate the Kurds. Erdogan knows full well that Assad is trying to play him, hence his various incursions and guarantees to the Sunni Arab rebels including Al Qaeda.
As I said Russia did try to take back some of the large non Kurdish areas grabbed by the PKK with massive western air support, but suffered heavy losses in very short space of time. Turkey, Assad, Russia, Iran, the Iraqi government all want the SDK out of Syria's western oil fields. The idea that the West can protect this position long term, using a supply route through Turkey, using planes flying from Turkish airbases is for the birds.