What is happening in Iran? - Page 2 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15050084
JohnRawls wrote:Okay, i don't wanna argue with you about Venezuela economy and how the oil market shifted in the last 10 years. Essentially there were many factors but Venezuelan economy collapsed under standard conditions while the sanctions were non-existent. Sanctions were introduced later.


No. Sanctions preceded the wars on Venezuela in 2017 and 2019.

Iran on the other hand was fine even during those market conditions. Actually it was doing better and better when the deal was ongoing and Iran actually honestly stopped its nuclear development. The economy was even functioning under previous sanctions. So the current economic turmoil in Iran is the fault of sanctions and one sided caused by US. Does that give Iran the ability to slaughter people? Probably not but we have what we have. (If those reports are true which nobody is sure right now by the way)


Yes, the main cause of what's going on Iran is sanctions, as well as U.S. infiltration in the country which has been a thing for decades.

I understand that Iran runs proxy organisations but so does everybody else in the middle and even outside.


Indeed. The U.S. and its lapdogs in the region, Israel and Saudi Arabia, have been involved in and funding terrorism in the region for many decades. Zionists act like this isn't a thing, which is hilarious, mainly. They get hysterical when anyone stands up to their terrorism, which is really baby'ish considering what they do. Like a bully who starts crying, pointing fingers and demanding sympathy after finally getting that well deserved smack in the mouth.

Perhaps Yemen but its mostly not really Iran that caused it.


It is Saudi Arabia that started its war and genocide of Yemen and its people (which is ongoing) while being armed by the UK and US. The Houthis-are-controlled-by-Iran is a meme that for some reason continues to be a thing despite being false, as explained in this article.
#15050085
So far, I haven't been following up on Iran's local news as we're a bit busy here, but what I can say is that I'm with the revolution in Iran and it's about time.
We, the reformist movement (i.e the green movement in Iran which includes everyone from centrists, liberals, liberal conservatives, socialists, etc and many of my family in Iran are part of), tried enacting reforms through taking up local elections, city councils, local governments, and the parliament; However, after many years now, this has yet not shown success as the central federal government isolated and continuosly cut down the power of local governments, up to placing revolutionary gaurds' control over some district to stop social reforms ( primarily in Asfahan, Shiraz, Mashhad, and Golestan).
They continuously stopped our candidates from running parlimantary elections by force, shut down Ghalibaf and Khatami from pushing radical reforms to uplift the working class and the poor, reversed all policies targetted at improving living standards of the working class in opposition to all local governments, continuously shut down funding for development programs in service of their corruption and the support of foreign militias ruining other countries (like Hezbollah which we're fighting against here), and went as far as ignoring the constitutional limit for Khamenei this year (There should've been a new leader of the federal government this year in 2019, but they extended it a couple of sessions ago), and finally shut down all committees and movements fighting against corruption.
And even incroaching on tribal territories which remained as the last resort for a good life in the country till recently.

The current government in Iran lost any form of legitamcy it had, and it's time for it to go.

I, and we, don't give a damn about any foreigner coming here saying it's CIA and American imperialism and the regular bullshit, we're tired of these fuckers and they'll be removed.

We come from some of the wealthiest countries in the world with massive amounts of natural resources and potential for vast industrial and international sectors due to our location, yet we have to migrate to other countries to be able to secure a good life without having to go through loops to appease some corrupt fuckers in power.


Note, it's also about time we remove these Islamic laws once and for all and adopt secular liberty-based legal system.
#15050089
anasawad wrote:So far, I haven't been following up on Iran's local news as we're a bit busy here, but what I can say is that I'm with the revolution in Iran and it's about time.
We, the reformist movement (i.e the green movement in Iran which includes everyone from centrists, liberals, liberal conservatives, socialists, etc and many of my family in Iran are part of), tried enacting reforms through taking up local elections, city councils, local governments, and the parliament; However, after many years now, this has yet not shown success as the central federal government isolated and continuosly cut down the power of local governments, up to placing revolutionary gaurds' control over some district to stop social reforms ( primarily in Asfahan, Shiraz, Mashhad, and Golestan).
They continuously stopped our candidates from running parlimantary elections by force, shut down Ghalibaf and Khatami from pushing radical reforms to uplift the working class and the poor, reversed all policies targetted at improving living standards of the working class in opposition to all local governments, continuously shut down funding for development programs in service of their corruption and the support of foreign militias ruining other countries (like Hezbollah which we're fighting against here), and went as far as ignoring the constitutional limit for Khamenei this year (There should've been a new leader of the federal government this year in 2019, but they extended it a couple of sessions ago), and finally shut down all committees and movements fighting against corruption.
And even incroaching on tribal territories which remained as the last resort for a good life in the country till recently.

The current government in Iran lost any form of legitamcy it had, and it's time for it to go.

I, and we, don't give a damn about any foreigner coming here saying it's CIA and American imperialism and the regular bullshit, we're tired of these fuckers and they'll be removed.

We come from some of the wealthiest countries in the world with massive amounts of natural resources and potential for vast industrial and international sectors due to our location, yet we have to migrate to other countries to be able to secure a good life without having to go through loops to appease some corrupt fuckers in power.


Note, it's also about time we remove these Islamic laws once and for all and adopt secular liberty-based legal system.


Good points. The question is that can you realistically change the government even through protest? If yes then how will your policy differ compared to Khomeni and what structural reform you want to implement.

The current living standard decrease is mostly related due to the sanctions. I understand that Iranians want a better life but will the sanctions go away if you replace Khomeni and what are you willing to sacrifice to make them go away? As corrupt as the current regime is, it showed that it is not perhaps totally corrupt when the sanctions were not in place to the extent that they are now. Your industrial and resource base is kinda useless if you are under sanctions from US and de facto EU. Who will buy your stuff?

Basically my idea here is that simply removing Khomeni is not the answer. Sanctions are implemented by the US so US will be deciding on when to remove them. The problem is that they will ask a lot and nobody knows what really will they ask in the end. Is stopping the nuclear program fine? Removing support for Yemen and Hezbollah? Probably acceptable for you till this point. But what if they ask to privatise the oil sector?
#15050093
anasawad wrote:I, and we, don't give a damn about any foreigner coming here saying it's CIA and American imperialism and the regular bullshit, we're tired of these fuckers and they'll be removed.


I, and we, don't give a damn about any foreigner coming here saying it's not CIA and American imperialism, even when it is.

#15050105
@JohnRawls
The question is that can you realistically change the government even through protest? If yes then how will your policy differ compared to Khomeni and what structural reform you want to implement.

In Lebanon, it's almost there as the Parliament will soon fall due to losing a third of its members, so the presidency will fall. What is left is Hezbollah's militia to be disbanded, which most likely going to have some armed conflict.

In Iran, it depends, the government could fall due to massive uprisings as the movement is growing, but we will for sure see a number of revolutionary guards staying loyal and fighting any new government, so there will also be limited conflict taking place between them and the army.
Noting that the army in both Iran and Lebanon are with the people, not with the government.
And in both countries, the problem and the conflict comes from armed militias in the form of Hezbollah and the revolutionary guards.

And noting that the existence of both is counter to the constitution since in Lebanon, Hezbollah's militia should've began integration with the army as is the case with all militias in the post-civil war period, and in Iran, the revolutionary guards should've disbanded and began integrating with the general security forces of the country with the armed elements in the army and the security elements with the national security services.
(The revolutionary guards are the result of the Iran-Iraq war, and should've began integration afterwords).

The current living standard decrease is mostly related due to the sanctions.

The sanctions simply sped up the process. Corruption would've gotten the country there anyways.

The removal of these programs helping to improve living standards began before the sanctions, an example would be the various programs established in the late 90s to end homelessness across the nation by building state provided apartment complexes given out and maintained for free to homeless and poor people, those programs were being cut down all the way back since 2009 and became almost completely gone by 2016 with the excuse being funding the war in Syria and fighting ISIS.

So blaming everything on sanctions is nothing more than an excuse that doesn't stand ground in reality. The government has been underfunding various social programs and redirecting funds towards funding militias in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Libya, along with funding various political movements all across.

The oil sanctions doesn't justify the situation since the oil prices globally, which would remain low due to the oil boom in various countries (the US primarily), are not high enough to actually balance the budget between funding these programs and improving the country, all while funding all these arms outside.

I understand that Iranians want a better life but will the sanctions go away if you replace Khomeni and what are you willing to sacrifice to make them go away? As corrupt as the current regime is, it showed that it is not perhaps totally corrupt when the sanctions were not in place to the extent that they are now. Your industrial and resource base is kinda useless if you are under sanctions from US and de facto EU. Who will buy your stuff?


What sacrafices? It's all about diplomacy, and on the diplomatic front, the reformest movement has been pushing for peace with Saudi Arabia, the US, Israel, and Europe all the way back since the 90s.

And the people already have more than sufficient technical expertise to kick start an industrial revolution in the country.

Is stopping the nuclear program fine?

Nuclear weapons?yes, as they're counter to the principles and values we're pushing. Nuclear energy and research? No, but we already agreed on international monitoring and international cooperation nuclear tech research.



Removing support for Yemen and Hezbollah?

Hezbollah will fall before the clerical government.
And Yemen is already going through a peace process to establish a federal system in the country, the only obstacle is the Iranian pressure, once gone the houthis will have no choice but to be active in the peace process.

But what if they ask to privatise the oil sector?

Wont happen, but oil is an ineffective sector to rebuild the economy due to its prices as we're seeing in Venezuela, Russia, and Saudi Arabia; As such, once the industrial sectors are running (The basis already exist, only needing an expansion in the consumer goods part), then oil will become an even more minor part of the Iranian economy, meaning it's not going to be a problem negotiating on it.

Further noting that the Arab parts of Iran, Al Ahvaz which most of the oil is in, are also demanding full autonomy, which are part of the decentralized federal structures based on autonomy and self-governance in the various sections of Iran, that the movement is pushing for.
So even if oil came on the negotiating table, it won't be part of the central government's resources but rather part of the non-Iranian governments inside any future federation that has full self-governance due to them being mainly remnants of the empire and not an actual part of the country.

You can expect that the Arabs, Kurds, Balochis, Azaris, and many others to have full self-governance and be only part of Iran in terms of the army and intelligence services and as trading partners, but not under the same economic management or policy.
Basically, multiple systems, one country, similar to how Hong Kong was in China, that would be the state of Iran under any new system established since those are foundational demands to solve the long-running issues and disputes going on since the fall of the empire.
#15050112
I, and we, don't give a damn about any foreigner coming here saying it's not CIA and American imperialism, even when it is.


lol says the one who argue for the Iranian regime but never been to Iran
also you argue for the "Palestinians" but never been to the middle east :lol:

you have some chutzpah skinster :lol:
#15050117
Zionist arguments get weaker and weaker. :D

HEY EVERYONE, THE STATE THAT REGIME-CHANGED IRAN IN 1953 AND HAS BEEN ATTACKING IT ON AND OFF SINCE IT REVOLTED AGAINST THAT COUP, THAT SAME STATE THAT HAS BEEN THREATENING TO OBLITERATE IRAN FOR YEARS NOW HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS. :lol:
Last edited by skinster on 21 Nov 2019 21:37, edited 1 time in total.
#15050121
I don't care what you think, anasawad. If you want to deny Western involvement here even though it's quite obviously a thing, even at a minimum via sanctions, that's your problem.

I don't know why you think you're the oracle on talking middle eastern issues. If you have evidence of anything, present it. (Pro-tip: your opinion isn't evidence for anything).
#15050123
@skinster
The US placing sanctions is no excuse to the already existing corruption and illegitimacy.
A 5th grader child can understand this.

And 'm not presenting an opinion, those are either very well known historical events that have been discussed even here on this forum many times, or demands and events that anyone who even bothered to follow these protests and revolutions would know, the fact that you're not aware of them is a witness to the fact that you have no idea what you're talking about, nor that you've even followed what these protests are demanding through speakers in the streets.

If I came and said that the Lebanese parliament will fall very soon in a thread about Lebanon's protests, that won't be an opinion because anyone who even took a look at the news of these protests would know that the future movement, Lebanese forces, and the socialists progressive parliamentary blocks are planning to resign next Wednesday, meaning the parliament won't have enough members to function and thus an early election must be called. This won't be an opinion, this would be stating a piece of news circulating everywhere and a legal fact regarding that news.


The self-governance issue I mentioned in my last post isn't an "opinion", or just some random stuff I threw in, it's the main topic of countless protests, insurgencies, and even fucking wars taking place repeatedly over the past fucking century. Not knowing about itor ignoring it under the guise of CIA involved there for bad doesn't make you look smart or wiseass, it makes you look like someone who doesn't know anything not only about the current situation in Iran but even the history of the past century in Iran in general because these things are common knowledge and self-evident since Iran was an empire.

The peace offering with the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia isn't an opinion, it's an actual peace offer and a call for negotiations done under president Khatami in the late 90s and early 2000s and have resulted in active cooperation between all these countries and Iran that lasted for a few years before clerics re-asserted control and the current situation became a thing.
Not knowing this, again, doesn't make you look smart or cool, it only makes sure to show that you have no idea what you're talking about.
#15050130
If it was "supported by the vast majority of Iranians", then there won't be protests everywhere, nor would it continue over many years and elects many officials and presidents into office, nor would the state need to use force to shut it down.


It's also funny how you, a self-proclaimed left wing liberal progressive, are siding with theocrats and fascists in the middle east.
#15050131
I know Iranians who see this for what this is. I don't really care for your opinion about me since you're generally on the Zionist side of ME debates, but do keep trying.

NOTHING TO DO WITH THE U.S. TO SEE HERE, ALL ORGANIC PROTESTS TAKING PLACE IN A STATE THREATENED REPEATEDLY BY EMPIRE. AMERICA CARES ABOUT THE WELLBEING OF IRANIANS, etc.
#15050135
anasawad wrote:If it was "supported by the vast majority of Iranians", then there won't be protests everywhere, nor would it continue over many years and elects many officials and presidents into office, nor would the state need to use force to shut it down.


It's also funny how you, a self-proclaimed left wing liberal progressive, are siding with theocrats and fascists in the middle east.
He also sides with Chinese Communists. Basically he eagerly thinks both My Honourable Friend and Me deserve dying horribly because we essentially side with the West.
#15050225
This forum is the only ‘news-ish’ source I have about these occurrences in Iran. There’s nothing in the mainstream...except AlJazeera. That’s pretty appalling.
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