China's Wuhan shuts down transport as global alarm mounts over virus spread - Page 3 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15061380
From recent discussion I have had with the younger generation, I have the impression that Sinophiles in the West are a lot more into that sort of traditional superstition than present day Chinese on Weibo.


A stereotype propagated by westerners you think? That’s perfectly plausible.
#15061422
Patrickov wrote:According to my father (who read Facebook feeds), the lock-down includes cutoff of INTERNET -- this would mean things like ALIPAY (which is equivalent to CASH there) unusable, i.e. they will NOT have access to FOOD, WATER, ELECTRICITY, COMMUNICATIONS, etc.

It seems the citizens of Wuhan is actually being treated as flu chickens.


Call me an old fart, but this is why you should never embrace a complete cashless society. Countries like India and China are basically completely cashless now. They pay with their smartphones. They think it's convenient, which is why it is so dangerous. People often don't think things through.
#15061426
Code Rood wrote:
1720: The plague of Marseille
1820: Cholera Outbreak
1920: Spanish Flu
2020: Wuhan coronavirus

Hmm...



Comes down to mortality rates.

We won't know that for a while, but it looks like 5%. The 'Spanish' flu was 10%.

Then it comes down to how good the disease is at spreading. We really don't know that yet.

But you can expect this to fall on a normal curve, which means a moderate rate of transmission is likely.

So with a 5% mortality, and moderate rates of transmission, it's nasty, but manageable.

I hope.
#15061433
Just a reminder of how SARS spread in 2003 from around 150 infected on March 17th to about 8,000 on August 7th, with about 800 deaths.



By comparison, as of today, officially about 900 have been infected by the Wuhan virus and 26 have died; however, a UK research paper estimates that only about 5% of the infections are public and that the number of infections will exceed 250,000 within the next two weeks in Wuhan city alone. The paper also suggests the travel restrictions won't have any effect in halting transmissions across China.

Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions - Lancaster University - Jan. 24

In Hubei province, most major cities with about 35 million residents are now under lockdown.

Instead of providing basic sanitary assistance to the people affected, the Chinese authorities spent the first few days locking up citizens who reported about the virus and threatening journalists.

China spent the crucial first days of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak arresting people who posted about it online and threatening journalists

There is video footage from Wuhan of chaotic conditions in hospitals, with corpses (or sleeping patients?) lying in the corridors among hundreds a patients waiting to be treated in crowded conditions. Staff lack basic sanitary equipment.



There is also footage of rural roads and even dirt tracks being dug up to stop circulation, military personal in protective closing and tanks moving into the city. It's hard to tell how much of that is authentic.



Image

It appears that many infected patients don't ever have fever, which will make detecting very difficulty.

On the bright side, the Chinese won't loose their sense for business opportunities whenever they present themselves. With the scarcity of sanitary equipment and protective masks, there seems be a market for used second hand masks. :knife:
Not that the masks do much good since you'll also need goggles to protect your eyes.



If you want a taste of the scary or hilarious or both, have a look at Harry Chen PdD twitter feed:

https://mobile.twitter.com/IsChinar

No, the world is not ready for China yet, definitely not.
#15061451
Atlantis wrote:It's unfortunate that it seems impossible to have a rational discussion, unaffected by emotional bias, on the pros and cons of the Chinese system. This is even more disastrous because it will affect all our lives, at least for the younger generation. We are once again plunging into an unpredictable future like headless chickens in a Chinese wet market. The outcome of that is totally predictable.


Antinatalism should be part of the climate conversation. Is it moral to bring children into a world that is experiencing a potentially irreversible climate crisis?
#15061487
Informative BBC podcast

Can China stop the killer virus from spreading?

The numbers are doubling on a daily basis. The latest "official" figures are over 1,000 infected and 41 deaths. But the real figures are probably higher. There are persistent stories about people declared dead due to "pneumonia" under suspicious circumstances. Chinese official probably have a hard time not to give in to the immediate instinct to cover up.

As families tell of pneumonia-like deaths in Wuhan, some wonder if China virus count is too low

BEIJING — Chen Min was healthy when she and her husband boarded a train from Hankou station in Wuhan at the end of December, headed for a trip to the southern coastal city of Xiamen. When the 65-year-old developed a persistent cough and fever a week later, she assumed it was just a common cold.

But the cold didn’t get better, and the fever didn’t break. So she visited Wuhan Tongji Hospital again and again until she was isolated in the infectious diseases unit on Jan. 15. She was dead within six hours.

Although Chen had all the symptoms of the coronavirus that is spreading across China and beyond, she is not counted on the official list of those who have died as a result of the infection. Her death certificate, which her family showed to The Washington Post, reads “severe pneumonia.”

But hospital staff told her stepson, Kyle Hui, that they strongly suspected she had “that” kind of pneumonia. At the crematorium, where the workers were in hazmat suits, Chen’s body was immediately incinerated without a proper farewell, and the vehicle it arrived in was disinfected.
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“My stepmother was warmhearted, and she was generous in helping people,” Hui, a 40-year-old architect who lives in Shanghai, told The Post. “She had many friends everywhere. How pitiful that in the last mile of her journey, she had only a dozen family members saying goodbye to her in such a hurry.”

Hui and his siblings believe their mother had the coronavirus.

Tellingly, the family has received no bill from the hospital — consistent with the authorities’ pledge to cover the costs of all those infected with the mysterious virus, which started in a food market where wild and exotic animals were being sold for consumption.

Chen had never been to the market, Hui said, but she did go to the nearby station to catch the train to Xiamen.

She was never given a test to categorically confirm whether it was the virus. Nor was her daughter-in-law, who cared for Chen and now has low-grade symptoms. Her husband and elder son have not been tested, either. Now Hui, having returned to Shanghai, has quarantined himself from his wife and son, lest he also be infected.

Hui’s account, along with others that have emerged in recent days, suggest that the coronavirus could be far more prevalent than Chinese health authorities have acknowledged.

China’s National Health Commission said Wednesday that more than 470 people have been infected by the virus. The authorities in the province around Wuhan said Wednesday that 17 had died.

After playing down the prospects of the pneumonialike virus being transmitted between humans, authorities have now said that the infection of people who have never been to the market at the epicenter of the outbreak shows that it is being passed among people.
As the coronavirus has progressed, the National Health Commission has been making an effort to put out daily updates, although they often come after midnight.

But many here are wondering if the government is being as transparent about the virus as it claims to be.

Memories of the attempts to play down and cover up the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002 still linger. The official response to more recent health scandals, including a contaminated milk scandal in 2008 and a tainted vaccine scandal in 2018, have not engendered greater confidence in the system.

China has learned the lessons of the SARS epidemic, said Mao Shoulong, a renowned professor and director of public administration at Renmin University.

“China paid a steep price during the SARS crisis due to bureaucracy and red tape and can’t afford to go through that again,” Mao said. “Rather than relying on a sloppy system centered around government officials, we need one that gives priority to patients, doctors and public health in an emergency like this.”

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has also become involved in the response effort, on Monday issuing a directive to “put people’s safety and health as the top priority and take effective measures to curb the spread of the virus.” This order was emblazoned across state media.
“With the strong leadership of the Communist Party of China Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core,” experts were confident that they could control the epidemic, National Health Commission Vice Director Li Bin told reporters Wednesday.

Xi’s association with the response marked a sharp contrast to the official response to the swine flu outbreak that erupted last year and caused pork prices to spike ahead of politically sensitive holidays. At that time, that crisis was handled by the prime minister and other economic officials.

Yan Jirong, a professor at Peking University’s Institute of Political Development and Governance, said it was not surprising that Xi has put his name on the response.
“It has become too massive and grave an issue to be ignored,” Yan said. “We have learned a lesson [from SARS] so many years back, so now we could draw from that experience and get more transparency. There’s no denying that the Chinese government has made progress and managed to get sustained trust from the people.”
Still, there is plenty of evidence that the Communist Party is trying to control the narrative.

Chinese media have said that the first case of viral pneumonia in Wuhan was reported on Dec. 8, but the local government did not put out an official notice about it until Dec. 31.
Then, local authorities appear to have delayed further announcements underscoring the danger of the virus until after Hubei province, whose capital is Wuhan, had wrapped up a political meeting held from Jan. 11 to Jan. 15.


Some local journalists have said they were stopped from reporting about the virus, and even social media posts from government departments were deleted within hours.
There have also been other reports of people, in addition to Chen, who appear to have died in the coronavirus outbreak but are not included in the official tally.
Both of Xu Xinlei’s parents died nine days apart in Wuhan from “lung infections” that she believes were coronavirus.


Her 72-year-old mother was hospitalized in mid-December for a heart problem and developed a fever while admitted. She was moved to the respiratory department, then quarantined. She died on Jan. 12, Xu told Beijing News.

Xu’s father, who had been visiting his wife in the hospital, then grew short of breath. When a scan showed he had a lung infection, doctors told Xu to move him to one of “those” hospitals, she said, referring to the institutions treating patients with coronavirus.

He died Tuesday. Neither of them were tested for the virus. Both, like Chen, were cremated immediately.

This outbreak is extremely sensitive for Xi and the ruling Communist Party. Not only is the coronavirus spreading, but it comes on the heels of rising food prices overall and a slowing economy, in the midst of continuing frictions with the United States, and as Beijing faces political challenges in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

That means it could have political ramifications.
“People are getting very angry in Wuhan, but before, it was a local issue,” said Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago. “Now that the virus has escaped Wuhan, it has become a national issue. So, given how centralized the system is, Xi has to act decisively and put his imprimatur on this.”

Xi’s involvement could hearten some people, Yang said, and help local leaders ensure social stability. But this could backfire on him if the situation turns out to be worse than thought, or if it has a big economic impact.

Some of this impact may take time to see.

China’s local governments, including Wuhanand surrounding Hubei province, are being crushed by huge debt loads, and the financial toll of this outbreak could push them over the edge.

Beginning early Thursday, all outbound travel was banned from Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, in an unprecedented action by China to try to contain the virus. The People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, reported that “no people in Wuhan … will be allowed to leave the city.”

Hubei authorities on Wednesday asked the central government for emergency assistance of 40 million surgical masks, 5 million protection suits and 5,000 infrared thermometers.

“If the disease was spread to some of the poor provinces that are heavily indebted, it would mean substantial additional outlays for local governments, especially at the municipal and county level where the budget is really, really strapped,” said Victor Shih, an expert on China’s political economy at the University of California at San Diego.s
That may mean that promised bridges and roads will not be built, he said, adding to percolating discontent about the slowing economy.

“Even if people are unhappy, they’re obviously not going to rise up or anything,” Shih said.

The increasingly iron-fisted Xi, who has scrapped term limits so he can theoretically rule this one-party state for the rest of his life, has put in place strict controls and surveillance to make sure there is no dissent.

“But if the disease continues to spread in China, and if we see clear signs of policy failures to deal with this kind of virus,” Shih said, “I think the educated public will be very disappointed and disillusioned about the effect of concentrating so much power in the hands of one person.”


The Washington Post confirms what I said in earlier post, almost quoting me verbatim, about learning from the SARS case but controlling the narrative even tighter than before.
#15061489
https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-c ... tos-2020-1

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10812276/ ... -bat-soup/

Dear China.....

STOP EATING BATS, DOGS, CATS, MICE, SCORPIONS, SNAKES, SPIDERS, BUGS AND OTHER CRAZY SHIT.

Last edited by colliric on 25 Jan 2020 01:56, edited 1 time in total.
#15061493
Code Rood wrote:
Call me an old fart, but this is why you should never embrace a complete cashless society. Countries like India and China are basically completely cashless now. They pay with their smartphones. They think it's convenient, which is why it is so dangerous. People often don't think things through.
I don't blame them. The cash there are full of counterfeit.
#15061494
colliric wrote:https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-chinese-wet-market-photos-2020-1

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10812276/ ... -bat-soup/

Dear China.....

STOP EATING BATS, DOGS, CATS, MICE, SCORPIONS, SNAKES, SPIDERS, BUGS AND OTHER CRAZY SHIT.

As long as they die themselves and do not harm us I am fine. But there are always assholes who will run at the first opportunity.
#15061501
Donna wrote:
Antinatalism should be part of the climate conversation. Is it moral to bring children into a world that is experiencing a potentially irreversible climate crisis?


The society must continue somehow. Or is it that we should kill ourselves immediately when the situation is unsatiable?
#15061535
I expect this pandemic to reach Bangladesh any time now.
We have thousands of Chinese working on big Chinese projects and thousands of Chinese in the garments industry travelling up and down constantly. And plenty of Bangladeshi business men travelling to and from China. I am pretty sure the virus is already here but the Authorities are not aware of it.
As usual, there are no preparations, no pre-stocking meds or protective clothing, no instructions to medical personnel.

So we will be on our own.
I arranged a pile of cash, food, medicines, face masks, sanitiser, disinfectants and whatever else.
During my shopping expeditions yesterday I saw nobody else obviously shopping to prepare for the corona virus.

I also advise all pofo posters to be careful, wherever you are, because that virus is about everywhere now.
Yes, also you, @JohnRawls
#15061536
Donna wrote:Bush meat has a low carbon footprint...


It's also healthier than chlorine chicken or hormone-pumped beef.

The problem is not eating meat from wild animals, as long as it's properly cooked. The problem are wet markets where life animals (domestic or wild) are kept in cramped cages and slaughtered under unhygienic conditions in front of the customers with blood and intestines dispersed all around.
#15061547
Atlantis wrote:The problem are wet markets where life animals (domestic or wild) are kept in cramped cages and slaughtered under unhygienic conditions in front of the customers with blood and intestines dispersed all around.


According to some viral videos, some Chinese probably think properly processed meat kills the fun. That's why wet markets are so rampant there.

Again, as long as they do not harm us in the process of dying, from having their karma for such kind of "fun", I am not against them having fun themselves.
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