China's Wuhan shuts down transport as global alarm mounts over virus spread - Page 8 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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Provision of the two UN HDI indicators other than GNP.
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#15061910
Atlantis wrote:Where are all the people who said that a common flu is worse than the Wuhan coronary virus?

As of now, the official figures are 2,840 infected, 5,794 suspected infections, 57 cured, 81 dead:

Open Tencent News

The numbers of infected increase each time I renew the screen.

There are already 16 major cities with more than 10 infections, each, and 6 cities with more than 50 infections, each. According to some estimates, the actual figures of infections could be already over 100,000.

This has all the hallmark of becoming a global pandemic IF it cannot be contained in China. If there are major clusters of infections in 3rd world countries, we are fried. There are thousands of people that cross into India from China on a daily basis. What would happen if there are major outbreaks in India or Africa?


Well, this would mean that Europe and US will close all borders with Africa, Asia, Mexico etc. Both on land, air and on Sea. Alt-right dream come to life.
#15061911
JohnRawls wrote:You might not have any trust in the CCP but surely there is some trust left between the regular people.


In the case of a pandemic, national or international, it is every man or women for him/herself and god against all.

You see that in the reckless behavior of people trying to get out of Wuhan by reducing their fever with medication. They don't care if they spread the virus to the whole of China or to the whole of the world, as long as they can get out themselves.

With a virus spreading that rapidly, every day counts. The Wuhan authorities could have stopped the virus by taking action just a week earlier, instead of waiting for the big political meeting and subsequent banquet to close. By the time they admitted H2H transmission, it had already spread abroad.

The incompetence of the local city officials was graphically demonstrated in a press conference, where the provincial governor repeatedly mistook the number of face mask available (1 billion instead of 1 million). He wasn't wearing any face mask, while others were wearing their face mask upside-down or with the nose exposed. We could laugh at the incompetence of these political schemers if it wasn't so dramatic.

They thought their place on the gravy train was safe and that they didn't have to handle any actual problem.

Wuhan mayor admits failure as premier Li Keqiang takes charge
#15061913
Atlantis wrote:With a virus spreading that rapidly, every day counts. The Wuhan authorities could have stopped the virus by taking action just a week earlier, instead of waiting for the big political meeting and subsequent banquet to close. By the time they admitted H2H transmission, it had already spread abroad.

The incompetence of the local city officials was graphically demonstrated in a press conference, where the provincial governor repeatedly mistook the number of face mask available (1 billion instead of 1 million). He wasn't wearing any face mask, while others were wearing their face mask upside-down or with the nose exposed. We could laugh at the incompetence of these political schemers if it wasn't so dramatic.


This ultimately comes down to Chinese culture. Even I, in daily life, sometimes do not want to take risk by making a decision that might put my job in jeopardy.
#15061914
JohnRawls wrote:As for solidarity being based on trust i will agree fully. I do not think though that regular people = CCP. Currently the places being attacked are for regular people who are suffering or will be suffering from disease. You might not have any trust in the CCP but surely there is some trust left between the regular people. I mean CCP treats both HK people and Mainlanders as crap, so you have some common ground there. I understand that some of them are "brainwashed" but not all of them. You can show them the error of their ways while you are helping them.



Seriously, I do not think myself heeding this advice is sufficient to make a difference.

1. In a semi-recent post under the Hong Kong protest thread (specifically, post #15057547), I have stated that it is absurd to assume Chinese themselves are brainwashed by CCP into supporting them. It seems more reasonable to believe it is a positive feedback loop. To put it more directly, some Chinese actually find their government brings them glory and benefits, OR do things in ways they agree, so they give their support. Even for those who are anti-CCP, they simply do not think the way some of us do.

The problem is so deep that, some probably will not even trust whatever government established if CCP falls.


2. In post #15061872 I have mentioned a conspiracy theory that I heard, i.e. China, or at least local administrators, purposefully threw (potential) patients down to Hong Kong so as to "force" us to find a cure for them. This action, if true, is a complete disregard of our well-being. Given the recent restrictions in approving Individual Visit Scheme, any patient who has taken up the offer probably knows what they are up to.

3. The sheer number of Mainlanders means it is very hard for Hongkongers (at least the anti-China ones) to distinguish who to trust and who not to.

4. The attitude of the Carrie Lam administration is, of course, NOT helping the matter.
#15061955
Atlantis wrote:No, it's how all authoritarian regimes work, Turkish just as much as Chinese. If you report something the government doesn't like, you'll end up in prison:

Turkey remains ranked 157 among 180 countries in press freedom index

It's just human nature. People will cover up negative news. It's instinctive. They don't even have to think about it. In totalitarian regimes, to cover up is systemic. The CCP and our resident China apologists can extol Chinese anti-corruption measures and transparency until they are blue in the face, without freedom of press this sort of thing will repeat itself into all eternity. If you imprison dissidents (in China or Turkey) you will always squash critical voices that alert you to problems.

I don't know anyone prisoned for political thoughts or opposing the administration under our government.

Do you realize that Erdogan survived a coup attempt 4 years ago? Your source is linked to a recognized terrorist organization.

We still have free elections despite Europe and America's coup attempts to Erdoğan.
#15061962
@Rancid asked: How does getting the regular old flu shot help against this new virus? :?:

BTW, I got the flu shot back in October...


Rancid is wise to have gotten the flu shot. He may have saved his own life or the life of a family member or stranger.

You are correct that the flu shot has no effect on Corona Virus. BUT. The point I was making is that since less than 40% of Americans get the flu shot, flu hospitalizes three quarters of a million people every year. That is a serious load on our hospital system and, during this potential pandemic, puts serious demand on the very same services that corona virus does... And then there is the added issue of knowing the difference. The two diseases have very similar symptom sets. How do you decide what to do? And should a flu patient and CV patient be in the same "wards" when the hospitals, being overwhelmed, have to stack up patients? It is not indulging in hyperbole to say that every person on a respirator, flu or CV, in a worst case scenario, could cost someone else their life. So that simple flu shot could not only save you, your family and a considerable number of strangers a very uncomfortable illness, it might even save lives.

Herd immunity is a difficult subject but is a real thing. And it is especially important for those who really can't take vaccines for medical reasons. For them their best hope is to rely on the intelligence and kindness of strangers. But some special snowflakes do not care about them as long as they don't have to get an owie.
#15061967
Istanbuller wrote:I don't know anyone prisoned for political thoughts or opposing the administration under our government.

Do you realize that Erdogan survived a coup attempt 4 years ago? Your source is linked to a recognized terrorist organization.

We still have free elections despite Europe and America's coup attempts to Erdoğan.



IMHO the above post demonstrates how good Erdoğan and his aides has worked on their nation's people's minds. China, on the other hand, failed miserably.
#15061970
Patrickov wrote:
IMHO the above post demonstrates how good Erdoğan and his aides has worked on their nation's people's minds. China, on the other hand, failed miserably.



What you would need to do, to make a comparison demonstrating which was more repressive, would be to measure how much freedom there is on the internet to speak out against their regimes.

PFI: Turkey 157, China 177.

In both cases, the answer is damn little.
#15061981
late wrote:What you would need to do, to make a comparison demonstrating which was more repressive, would be to measure how much freedom there is on the internet to speak out against their regimes.

PFI: Turkey 157, China 177.

In both cases, the answer is damn little.


My previous post should not be regarded as entirely genuine.

However, I am interested to know what PFI means in the above quote.
#15062035
Patrickov wrote:IMHO the above post demonstrates how good Erdoğan and his aides has worked on their nation's people's minds. China, on the other hand, failed miserably.


It's called "nationalism", Patrickov, the Caliph of Ankara has his people fired up in a nationalistic frenzy to pursue his imperialist expansion projects.

But make no mistake, China's means of digital mind control (or good old repression) are those of a high tech country with cutting edge technology, while Turkey is a backward 3rd world country that can't do much more than pull the plug if TSHTF.

Atlantis wrote:Just a reminder of how SARS spread in 2003 from around 150 infected on March 17th to about 8,000 on August 7th, with about 800 deaths.



While SARS took nearly 5 months to reach 8,000 infections, MARS took about 6 years to infect less than 2,000 people. The Wuhan corona virus has already infected about 3,000, or according some estimates 100,000, in the first month.

#15062101
Atlantis wrote:As of now, the official figures are 2,840 infected, 5,794 suspected infections, 57 cured, 81 dead:


Those were the figures this morning, tonight they suddenly went up. I think they update the figures during the night (or early morning hours in China).

The official figures from Tencent news are now: 4,275 infected, 5,796 suspected, 60 cured, 106 dead.

The figures for infected people have almost doubled each day.

There are now 4 cities with more than 100 confirmed infections.

Open Tencent News

#15062110
I paid over $4000 in various medical services as well as
Atlantis wrote:
Those were the figures this morning, tonight they suddenly went up. I think they update the figures during the night (or early morning hours in China).

The official figures from Tencent news are now: 4,275 infected, 5,796 suspected, 60 cured, 106 dead.

The figures for infected people have almost doubled each day.

There are now 4 cities with more than 100 confirmed infections.

Open Tencent News


Fuck only 57 have recovered? This thing sounds like a slow burn. :hmm:
#15062155
@JohnRawls asked:

Well the HK head and most knowledgable person about coronaviruses says the R0 is 2.12 if methods are not implemented to stop the spread. Also says that Wuhan link to other major cities means that all 5 large city clusters in CHina will highly likely have an epidemic depending on the containment measures with it peaking in April-May. Wuhan will be a bit faster. Without any preventive measures a doubling of infected cases is expected every 6 days.

The epidemic might turn global depending on what happens to intentional mobility etc and containment measures. Advises draconian movement restrictions.

Not sure how bad that R0 is? May be Drlee can clarify. Spanish flu had R0 of 1.8 so we are fucked or something? (R0 is spread rate of sorts as i understand which basically means that 1 carrier is expected to infect 2.12 individuals on average)


Well John I am not comfortable making predictions or offering advice. I will leave that to the CDC.

What does the R0 mean? Let me put the numbers into perspective. To understand R0 you have to bear in mind that is measures spread among susceptible populations. Those are populations where everyone is susceptible. No one has been vaccinated, no one has had the disease before, there’s no way to control the spread of the disease.

If R0 is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.
If R0 equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.
If R0 is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will spread between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic.


So we know now that this disease is spread by droplets and contact. That is bad.

It has a period of up to 14 days where the infected person is contagious and presents no symptoms. That is bad. (Chinese officials say this but the CDC is not ready to endorse this yet. My uninformed guess is that there is at least some period of no symptoms but contagious.

We have cases increasing at a rapid pace in China. That is bad.

So this is no Measles R18. No Mumps R8. But it is a nasty bastard that is not finished with us yet.

There are some companies working on vaccines. They could be ready for human study in about three months. This is lightning fast in historical terms but three months from now, with these vaccines just starting human study does not make me feel much better. A lot can happen in three months.

Here is what I am doing as a precaution.

I am washing my hands like Lady Macbeth. 20 seconds of brisk soap and water. I use 70% hand sanitizer when I don't have access to a sink. I clean environmental surfaces with dilute bleach. I wear a mask and gloves when around patients with respiratory symptoms. I am not traveling. I am not kissing Chinese people unless they are simply irresistible.

I have stashed a supply of face masks, alcohol, Tylenol and Ibuprofen. The cars are full of gas and there is plenty of food in the house.

I watch the progress of this disease carefully. I can tap my friends at CDC is necessary.

I go to the clinic and let sick people cough on me. Sigh...
#15062192
Drlee wrote:It has a period of up to 14 days where the infected person is contagious and presents no symptoms. That is bad. (Chinese officials say this but the CDC is not ready to endorse this yet. My uninformed guess is that there is at least some period of no symptoms but contagious.


There is one confirmed case in Germany. The man was infected on Jan. 21st by a Chinese woman coming from Wuhan on Jan. 19th for training at her company's HQ. The Chinese woman still didn't show any symptoms when she returned to China after the training. This suggests that it's possible for patients not to experience any symptoms throughout the infection. Or perhaps the symptoms are so mild that it doesn't present any inconvenience.

I have stashed a supply of face masks, alcohol, Tylenol and Ibuprofen. The cars are full of gas and there is plenty of food in the house.


My wife went around all pharmacies she could find in Lisbon a couple of days ago, but she couldn't get a single mask, even though we haven't had a single confirmed case in Portugal yet. Apparently the Chinese are buying up all stocks.

I managed to get some masks at a hardware store nearby which are really for protection against dust when working. I also have a few chirurgical masks still laying around. For how long is it possible to use the same mask if there are no new supplies? Is it possible to sterilize used mask? Oven? Boiling? Which masks are best? N95?
#15062195
Atlantis wrote:There is one confirmed case in Germany. The man was infected on Jan. 21st by a Chinese woman coming from Wuhan on Jan. 19th for training at her company's HQ. The Chinese woman still didn't show any symptoms when she returned to China after the training. This suggests that it's possible for patients not to experience any symptoms throughout the infection. Or perhaps the symptoms are so mild that it doesn't present any inconvenience.



My wife went around all pharmacies she could find in Lisbon a couple of days ago, but she couldn't get a single mask, even though we haven't had a single confirmed case in Portugal yet. Apparently the Chinese are buying up all stocks.

I managed to get some masks at a hardware store nearby which are really for protection against dust when working. I also have a few chirurgical masks still laying around. For how long is it possible to use the same mask if there are no new supplies? Is it possible to sterilize used mask? Oven? Boiling? Which masks are best? N95?

@Drlee
@Ter
Hmmm. Masks are one thing but what medications would you stock up for this. Painkillers like ibuprofen is understandable but what about anti-virals?

May be I have underestimated this.

Might as well stock up on things. If it will continue spreading then in 3-4 weeks we should have similar situation to China but just in Europe and US.
#15062198
Drlee wrote:So we know now that this disease is spread by droplets and contact. That is bad.


Chinese coronavirus dangerous at 2 meter distance, expert says

The expert noted the virus might be transmitted by contact, if it gets in human eyes or on mucous membranes

JohnRawls wrote:Might as well stock up on things. If it will continue spreading then in 3-4 weeks we should have similar situation to China but just in Europe and US.


I think it's still possible to stop the spread in the West. I'm most worried about the 3rd world.

The good news is that many cases seem to be light infections that don't seem to cause severe inconvenience.

The bad news is that there are also a substantial number of severe infections with patients in a critical state.

Around 4,515 cases of the illness have now been recorded across China, with almost 1,000 people in critical condition, according to state media.

The Guardian

The total number of confirmed infections is now at 4,622 with an additional 6.937 suspected infections.

Image
#15062199
Atlantis wrote:Chinese coronavirus dangerous at 2 meter distance, expert says

The expert noted the virus might be transmitted by contact, if it gets in human eyes or on mucous membranes



I think it's still possible to stop the spread in the West. I'm most worried about the 3rd world.

The good news is that many cases seem to be light infections that don't seem to cause severe inconvenience.

The bad news is that there are also a substantial number of severe infections with patients in a critical state.

Around 4,515 cases of the illness have now been recorded across China, with almost 1,000 people in critical condition, according to state media.

The Guardian

The total number of confirmed infections is now at 4,622 with an additional 6.937 suspected infections.

Image


I see you read R Chinaflu. Well the 3rd world is always in a problematic situation with situations like this. But anyways, European healthsystems will be able to cope with this. I mean if our systems don't cope then literally nobody elses will basically.

I wonder if this spreads everywhere then this epidemic will literally bankrupt most of the America.
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