China's Wuhan shuts down transport as global alarm mounts over virus spread - Page 10 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15062336
There are 3 more confirmed infections in Germany, which brings the total to 4. All 4 are colleagues of the Chinese woman from Wuhan who visited Germany for company training and who never showed any symptoms herself.


Very concerning if accurate. We just don't know at this point what the deal is. It may be that China has fed so much disinformation that we won't know for sometime.

@JohnRawls I would not dispute your numbers. The US could spend a trillion dollars on this. My suspicion is that it would not bankrupt the country but rather that some sort of wartime scenario would ensue. What form that would take I just don't know at this point. I could even see the government nationalizing the health care industry for a time.

Would lots of people be financially ruined? Just our labor system could see to that. So many of our people could not afford to lose any income to speak of.

What do I think will happen? As this is evolving so quickly I simply do not know. It all relies on three things as I see it.

First is how widespread this actually is. This will be a function of how contagious the virus really is and the actual time between exposure and infection.

Secondly, whether it is essentially a bad cold for most people with just some exhibiting severe complications.

Third. Whether it stays like it is or mutates into something more infectious.

I am personally concerned that what we are hearing is not the real deal. I hope the truth comes out soon. For the time being I would favor an outright travel ban on anyone from China at all. That should get the truth out more quickly.
#15062411
Drlee wrote:I will never eat at a Chinese Restaurant again.


Yes you will.

Chinese Restaurants in western countries mostly still serve almost exclusively Cantonese food. Or Mandarin food cooked to the Cantonese version of the recipe. Peking Duck and rice... Still amazing. Don't worry, your HK-expat cook has been here for decades already.

No reason to stop eating Chinese food. It's an overreaction. Especially if you hear them speaking in Guangdong Wah.

It's mainlanders known for still eating this stuff.

Just wandering around this suburb today, it's the westerners not wearing any medical masks and not washing hands properly.
#15062426
My father had forwarded an image, allegedly from someone in Japan, that Japan has blocked access of both Chinese and Hongkongers.

IMHO Carrie Lam administration should be violently overthrown just for this single defiance against border lock-down.

Now other nations punish us for our inability to "burn this bitch down"...

#15062442
British Airways has suspended all direct flights to and from mainland China due to the coronavirus outbreak. Britain advised against “all but essential” travel to mainland China due to the coronavirus outbreak. This is going to be much worse than SARS and I would estimate that more than 3 million people will be infected with the coronavirus and the death toll would surpass 10,000 by the end of this summer. It was just over 800 for SARS.

23 Since the SARS outbreak 18 years ago, a large number of severe acute
24 respiratory syndrome related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoV) have been discovered
25 in their natural reservoir host, bats1-4. Previous studies indicated that some of
26 those bat SARSr-CoVs have the potential to infect humans5-7. Here we report the
27 identification and characterization of a novel coronavirus (nCoV-2019) which
28 caused an epidemic of acute respiratory syndrome in humans, in Wuhan, China.
29 The epidemic, started from December 12th, 2019, has caused 198 laboratory
30 confirmed infections with three fatal cases by January 20th 2020. Full-length
31 genome sequences were obtained from five patients at the early stage of the
32 outbreak. They are almost identical to each other and share 79.5% sequence
33 identify to SARS-CoV. Furthermore, it was found that nCoV-2019 is 96%
34 identical at the whole genome level to a bat coronavirus. The pairwise protein
35 sequence analysis of seven conserved non-structural proteins show that this virus
36 belongs to the species of SARSr-CoV. The nCoV-2019 virus was then isolated
37 from the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid of a critically ill patient, which can be
38 neutralized by sera from several patients. Importantly, we have confirmed that
39 this novel CoV uses the same cell entry receptor, ACE2, as SARS-CoV.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf
#15062445
ThirdTerm wrote:This is going to be much worse than SARS and I would estimate that more than 3 million people will be infected with the coronavirus and the death toll would surpass 10,000 by the end of this summer. It was just over 800 for SARS.


As of just now, the CFR is holding at just above 2
6,073 confirmed cases, 132 dead = 2.17%

If your estimation of 3 million people infected will prove to be correct, and the CFR stays the same, we are looking at 60,000+ dead.

@ThirdTerm are you assuming that the infection can be contained ? Or will it run wild and extinguish by itself ?
#15062450
Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible sustained global spread

Some infectious disease experts are warning that it may no longer be feasible to contain the new coronavirus circulating in China. Failure to stop it there could see the virus spread in a sustained way around the world and even perhaps join the ranks of respiratory viruses that regularly infect people.

“The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able to be controlled with public health measures,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, a Toronto-based infectious disease specialist who contracted SARS in 2003 and who helped Saudi Arabia control several hospital-based outbreaks of MERS.

If that’s the case, she said, “we’re living with a new human virus, and we’re going to find out if it will spread around the globe.” McGeer cautioned that because the true severity of the outbreak isn’t yet known, it’s impossible to predict what the impact of that spread would be, though she noted it would likely pose significant challenges to health care facilities.


If it is true that the virus can't be contained, then a vaccine is our only hope, or the grim reaper will have his work cut out for him.

There are speculations that a vaccine will take at least 6 months to develop. As far as I know, there is still no vaccine for SARS, or if there is, it hasn't been tested yet.

There haven't been any confirmed cases from Africa yet, but considering that more than a million Chinese live and work in Africa, that's probably just a matter of time.
#15062451
Atlantis wrote:Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible sustained global spread



If it is true that the virus can't be contained, then a vaccine is our only hope, or the grim reaper will have his work cut out for him.

There are speculations that a vaccine will take at least 6 months to develop. As far as I know, there is still no vaccine for SARS, or if there is, it hasn't been tested yet.

There haven't been any confirmed cases from Africa yet, but considering that more than a million Chinese live and work in Africa, that's probably just a matter of time.


There is a vaccine is HK for both Sars and this. The problem is that it has never been tested so can't be used. And clinical trials will take time.
#15062455
Zionist Nationalist wrote:They should test it on animals


If you test it only on animals then you can't be sure of the result on humans you know. That is not how it fully works. Animals are not exactly the same as humans.
#15062457
@JohnRawls and others who might benefit from this text.
It seems to be aimed at a Chinese audience but I think it is useful.

from the Financial Times:

Report
The Wuhan Virus: How to Stay Safe
As China’s epidemic continues to spread, things may seem scary. Here are 10 simple precautions that can protect you from contracting the coronavirus.

As the new Wuhan coronavirus has spread not only all over mainland China, but also worldwide, panic is rising. Inside China there is a growing sense of helplessness, as the government is compelled to take drastic measures to stop the virus, including introducing some travel restrictions in Beijing. I have received panicked queries from journalists and public health workers in China, asking, “How can we protect ourselves and our families?”

The epidemic could have been controlled fairly easily three weeks ago had there been more openness, swift action, and no attempted cover-up. But now it’s too late, and this virus is spreading globally. Because there is no vaccine or treatment for nCoV2019—the Wuhan pneumonia—and infection has spread throughout China, the government is forced to turn to its 2003 SARS playbook. And that means entire cities must be cut off, and the population of the nation must be restricted in its movements and potential disease-spreading behavior. It is not surprising then that travel out of Beijing may be forbidden; the entire mainland could go on lockdown soon.
I know people are very frightened. And I expect panic will rise in the coming days. But very simple measures can protect you.
During the SARS epidemic, I traveled all over China and Hong Kong, interviewed people infected with the virus, doctors and nurses treating the disease, government officials, police—everybody. I was never concerned that I would become infected, despite being in the room with sick individuals. And that’s because I knew what precautions to take. Here are the most important ones to know:

1. When you leave your home, wear gloves—winter mittens or outdoor gloves—and keep them on in subways, buses, and public spaces.

2. If you are in a social situation where you should remove your gloves, perhaps to shake hands or dine, do not touch your face or eyes, no matter how much something itches. Keep your hands away from contact with your face. And before you put your gloves back on, wash your hands thoroughly with soap and warm water, scrubbing the fingers. Put your gloves on.

3. Change gloves daily, washing them thoroughly, and avoid wearing damp gloves.

4. Masks are useless when worn outdoors and may not be very helpful even indoors. Most masks deteriorate after one or two wearings. Using the same mask day after day is worse than useless—it’s disgusting, as the contents of your mouth and nose eventually coat the inside of the mask with a smelly veneer that is attractive to bacteria. I rarely wear a face mask in an epidemic, and I have been in more than 30 outbreaks. Instead, I stay away from crowds, and I keep my distance from individual people—a half meter, about 1.5 feet, is a good standard. If someone is coughing or sneezing, I ask them to put on a mask—to protect me from their potentially contaminated fluids. If they decline, I step a meter (about 3 feet) away from them, or I leave. Don’t shake hands or hug people—politely beg off, saying it’s better for both of you not to come in close contact during an epidemic.

5. Inside your household, remove all of the towels from your bathrooms and kitchen immediately, and replace them with clean towels that have the names of each family member on them. Instruct everybody in your home to only use their own towels and never touch another family member’s. Wash all towels twice a week. Damp towels provide terrific homes for viruses, like common colds, flus, and, yes, coronaviruses.

6. Be careful with doorknobs. If it’s possible to open and close doors using your elbows or shoulders, do so. Wear gloves to turn a doorknob—or wash your hands after touching it. If anybody in your home takes sick, wash your doorknobs regularly. Similarly, be cautious with stairway banisters, desktops, cell phones, toys, laptops—any objects that are hand-held. As long as you handle only your own personal objects, you will be ok—but if you need to pick up someone else’s cell phone or cooking tools or use someone else’s computer keyboard, be mindful of not touching your face and wash your hands immediately after touching the object.

7. If you share meals, do not use your personal chopsticks and utensils to remove food from a serving bowl or plate and, of course, tell your children to never drink out of anybody else’s cups or from a container of shared fluid. It is customary in China to prepare several dishes for a meal and then allow everybody at the table to use their personal chopsticks to pull food from the common dishes: Don’t do this until the epidemic is over. Place serving spoons in each dish and instruct everybody at the table to scoop what they want from the serving dishes onto their personal plates or bowls, return the serving spoon to the main dish, and then use their personal chopsticks only to pick food from their personal plate or bowl into their mouth. Wash all food and kitchenware thoroughly between meals and avoid restaurants that have poor hygiene practices.

8. Absolutely do not buy, slaughter, or consume any live animal or fish until it is known what species was the source of the virus.

9. When the weather allows, open your windows at home or work, letting your space air out. The virus cannot linger in a well-ventilated space. But of course, if it is cold or the weather is inclement, keep warm and close those windows.

10. Finally, if you are caring for a friend or family member who is running a fever, always wear a tight-fitting mask when you are near them, and place one on the ailing person (unless they are nauseated). When you replace an old, dirty mask from the face of your friend or loved one be very, very careful—assume, for the sake of your protection, that it is covered in viruses, and handle it while wearing latex gloves, place it inside of a disposable container, seal it, and then put it in the trash. While wearing those latex gloves, gently wash the patient’s face with warm soap and water, using a disposable paper towel or cotton swab, and seal it after use in a container or plastic bag before placing it in your household trash. Wear long-sleeved shirts and clothing that covers your body when you are caring for your ailing friend or relative. Clean everything your patient wears or touches very thoroughly in hot soapy water, including sheets, towels, and utensils. If you have space, isolate the sick person in your household in a room, or a corner of a room, where they are comfortable, but separated from the rest of the household. If the weather is tolerable, open a window that is on the opposite side of the room, so that air gently blows past the patient’s face and then outdoors. Of course, don’t do this if it is very cold, as your friend or loved one will be made sicker if uncomfortably cold.
The Chinese government will take very drastic actions over the next few weeks, and this will be a time of hardship for the Chinese people. As the virus spreads in other countries, similarly draconian measures may be invoked to slow the epidemic. But with these simple precautions, if taken by everybody in your household, building, office, and school, you will dramatically reduce the spread of the virus and bring the outbreak to its knees.
Be safe. Do not panic. Take commonsense precautions. As frightening as this time is, you will get through it.
#15062659
JohnRawls wrote:There is a vaccine is HK for both Sars and this. The problem is that it has never been tested so can't be used. And clinical trials will take time.


If you can't use it, it doesn't exist as vaccine. Anyways, I doubt that the vaccine developed for SARS can also be used for the Wuhan virus.


Saeko wrote:There are now 6000 cases worldwide.


That was this morning. The official numbers tonight are 7,781 confirmed infections for China, 12,167 suspected infections, 124 recovered, 170 death.

Of the 7,781 confirmed cases, 1,370 are in critical condition.

The real infections are likely to be between 40,000 and 100,000 cases by now.

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