Where did all the a-flu-is-worse commentators go? Are they still in hiding or have they become turncoats already?
Political Interest wrote:This is most likely going to become a pandemic. The real question is, how fatal is it and what is it we do not know?
It's the combination of a relatively high mortality and a very rapid spread that's the danger. Experts estimate that 60% of the population could be affected IF it goes unchecked, in other words, if governments don't take adequate measures to stop the spread.
That would mean 4.2 billion infections. With a death rate of 3% that would be 126 million deaths. If 20% get severely ill, that would mean 840 million severely ill, which would increase the death rate because many wouldn't get medical treatment.
Thus, it all depends on the measures taken by governments. A number of regimes could be toppled over this.
There is a good chance that this will become a before/after event. Posterity will view history before and after COVID19.