China's Wuhan shuts down transport as global alarm mounts over virus spread - Page 33 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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Provision of the two UN HDI indicators other than GNP.
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#15070274
Crantag wrote:This pandemic could lead to an interesting cross country study of health care systems, about the personal financial burden of coronavirus treatment for people in different countries.


That will be interesting. HOwever, even if the results show the US system is complete shit, nothing would change. There's just too much money being made by all of the racketeers that run the system.
#15070284
Australia's PM: "While the WHO is yet to declare the nature of the coronavirus and its move towards a pandemic phase, we believe that the risk of a global pandemic is very much upon us."

Based on the cases popping up across Europe, almost all linked to Italy, there are likely many more cases in Italy than currently confirmed and official numbers should go up shortly.
#15070287
I recently learned about the World Bank's 'Catastrophe Bonds'. Apparently the bonds stop paying out as soon as the WHO declares a pandemic. Moreover, the bonds, which were issued in 2017, mature in July.

No big surprise in this age that the World Bank would use a financial derivative as its financial preparation strategy for disease preparedness. And when have things ever gone wrong or not played out according to plan when it comes to financial derivatives.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... ic-by-june

$425M in World Bank catastrophe bonds set to default if coronavirus declared a pandemic by June
by Spencer Neale

| February 26, 2020 12:16 PM

Investors betting big against catastrophic diseases are watching the World Health Organization closely as insurance bonds tied to whether the organization labels COVID-19 a pandemic are set to mature in June.

In 2017, the World Bank designed a new way to raise money: Pandemic Emergency Financing bonds. Over $425 million worth of such bonds, which bet against a global outbreak of infectious diseases and will default if WHO declares the coronavirus a pandemic, were sold by the World Bank in its first-ever issuance of catastrophe bonds. In the event of no pandemic, investors would be paid a healthy annualized return. Meanwhile, the World Bank could use the bonds to insure itself against the risk of a global outbreak.

“As an investor, we do not want to lose money,” said Chin Liu, a portfolio manager at Amundi Pioneer, a Boston-based firm that purchased the bonds as a way to diversify the company's $1 billion catastrophe fund. “But then, we also understand if it’s unfortunately triggered, it benefits every single person, including ourselves, to keep the virus controlled.”

For large-scale investors looking for above-average returns in a bloated market, the bonds were the next logical place to hedge against disaster. At the time of issuance, then-World Bank President Jim Yong-Kim heralded the bonds as an opportunity to leverage "capital market expertise to serve the world’s poorest people."

The bonds were administered in two tranches, with Class A bond investors receiving a return of 6.9% annually. Class B bond investors received 11.5% annually. The World Bank raised $225 million in Class A bonds and $95 million in Class B bonds.

The investors, mainly endowments and pension funds, have long bet against natural disasters such as hurricanes, but the 2017 issuance of the bonds marked a shift in the market. Before, investors were betting on the wind speed of hurricanes, but now, they were betting on the likelihood of an infectious disease that could tear through nations across the globe.

"This marks the first time that World Bank bonds are being used to finance efforts against infectious diseases, and the first time that pandemic risk in low-income countries is being transferred to the financial markets," read a statement from the World Bank at the time of issuance.

The conditions under which the payout on bonds will default are staggered based on how rapidly the disease spreads, the number of deaths associated with the illness, and whether the virus crosses international borders.

As of Wednesday, the coronavirus has claimed the lives of more than 2,500 people and infected more than 80,000, with most cases contained to mainland China. This week, the illness has begun to spread outside of China — with more than 100 cases reported in Iran and a run on stores in Italy after the number of infected patients increased 45% on Tuesday alone.


And here is a Quartz article from 2017 about the bonds themselves.

https://qz.com/1017805/the-world-bank-i ... -outbreak/

The World Bank’s “pandemic bonds” are designed so investors pay in the event of an outbreak
June 29, 2017
By Eshe Nelson & John Detrixhe

From our Obsession
Future of Finance

New technology is upending everything in finance.

When the Ebola epidemic broke out in West Africa in 2014, in took several months to get large amounts money (around $100 million) to the countries that needed it, according to the World Bank. In that time, thousands of people died. In an effort to fight the next pandemic faster, the World Bank has turned to global financial markets, issuing $425 million in “pandemic bonds” and related derivatives to pay for emergency relief.

The money raised comprises the bulk of a $500 million Pandemic Emergency Financial Facility that will provide funds for poor countries in case of outbreaks of infectious diseases over the next five years. The bonds are designed to transfer the risk of a health crisis in low-income countries to the global financial markets. World Bank president Jim Yong Kim said this will help move away from “the cycle of panic and neglect” that has characterized recent pandemics.

The pandemic bonds work like this: Investors buy the bonds and receive regular coupons payments in return. If there is an outbreak of disease, the investors don’t get their initial money back. There are two varieties of debt, both scheduled to mature in July 2020. The first bond raised $225 million and features an interest rate of around 7%. Payout on the bond is suspended if there is an outbreak of new influenza viruses or coronaviridae (SARS, MERS). The second, riskier bond raised $95 million at an interest rate of more than 11%. This bond keeps investors’ money if there is an outbreak of Filovirus, Coronavirus, Lassa Fever, Rift Valley Fever, and/or Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever. The World Bank also issued $105 million in swap derivatives that work in a similar way.

These bonds are similar to catastrophe bonds, a $90 billion market used by insurance companies to shift risks of hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural disasters onto the financial markets. The World Bank’s bond sale was 200% oversubscribed, with investors eager to get their hands on the high-yield returns on offer. The majority of buyers were from Europe and included dedicated catastrophe-bond investors, pension funds, and asset managers.

Despite recent innovations, such as a genetic tool that maps how viruses spread in real-time, the world remains unprepared to deal with an epidemic on a global scale. The World Bank estimates that the annual cost of “moderately severe to severe” pandemics is roughly $570 billion, or 0.7% of global GDP. If—or when—there is another severe outbreak, these new bonds are meant to cut the cost, in terms of both human lives and financial resources, of fighting infectious diseases. Ebola killed more than 11,000 people and reduced GDP in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone by $2.8 billion.
#15070288
Crantag wrote:I recently learned about the World Bank's 'Catastrophe Bonds'. Apparently the bonds stop paying out as soon as the WHO declares a pandemic. Moreover, the bonds, which were issued in 2017, mature in July.

No big surprise in this age that the World Bank would use a financial derivative as its financial preparation strategy for disease preparedness. And when have things ever gone wrong or not played out according to plan when it comes to financial derivatives.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... ic-by-june


$425M vs thousands of lives... are lives that cheap nowadays?
#15070294
Atlantis wrote:According to the local health authority, about 14 per cent of patients who recovered from the novel coronavirus and were discharged from hospitals in southern China's Guangdong province were tested positive again in later check-ups.

14% of recovered coronavirus patients in China's Guangdong tested positive again

2nd infections can be worse if the 1st infection has caused organ damage.


This has been confirmed by a case of a woman in Japan, who tested positive again after having been cured. Either people take much longer to cure or there is no immunity, or the tests are useless.

Japanese woman confirmed as coronavirus case for second time, weeks after initial recovery

Kaiserschmarrn wrote:Based on the cases popping up across Europe, almost all linked to Italy, there are likely many more cases in Italy than currently confirmed and official numbers should go up shortly.


Damn it @Kaiserschmarrn, why didn't you close the Brenner? Always when we need the nationalists they fail us. :lol: To think that the Hapsburgs used to be our last line of defense ...

The virus exposes the pathology of each country, the Chinese are suffering from the CCP-induced cover-up, the Koreans are suffering from religious cults, the Japanese are suffering from intellectual inbreeding and behind the scenes dealing, the Iranians are suffering from religious fanatics, the US is suffering from an imperial president gone rogue, the Italians are suffering from a tendency to avoid facing the facts and Europe is suffering from complacency.

It's ironic that while cover-ups due to censorship are at the root of the problem in China and the Chinese are calling for free press, Italians are calling for the media and social media to be censored to avoid negative reporting that could damage the tourist industry or impact the dolce vita.
#15070299
@Drlee , ahem....people are dropping dead in the streets in S Korea and Iran. See about 22 min mark. Why?


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1oKV5MK2bdw



Also, the narrator reckons two to three months of supplies. I have that for non food items like toiletries and medicine, but not yet cleaning supplies. Food will reach 4 weeks for me and four weeks food for the cats. So the shopping goal for this weekend is clear.


Rancid wrote:Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck,

one of the bag tore open. I have gasoline all over my kitchen floor.



No big deal. Just relax. Light up a cigarette.
#15070322
So, its starting to happen in Italy too, people collapsing in public places like in Wuhan.



People suddenly collapsing seems to be a feature of the virus.

Tourism industry or not, the Italian authorities won't be able to play this down, even if some are calling for just that. An Italian member of the WHO even said it was a mistake to test asymptomatic people in Italy.

"A mistake to swab asymptomatics," says Walter Ricciardi
#15070330
Atlantis wrote:Damn it @Kaiserschmarrn, why didn't you close the Brenner?

Unfortunately, I was overruled after stopping all train traffic from Italy.

Atlantis wrote:The virus exposes the pathology of each country, the Chinese are suffering from the CCP-induced cover-up, the Koreans are suffering from religious cults, the Japanese are suffering from intellectual inbreeding and behind the scenes dealing, the Iranians are suffering from religious fanatics, the US is suffering from an imperial president gone rogue, the Italians are suffering from a tendency to avoid facing the facts and Europe is suffering from complacency.

But German armchair psychology is still the greatest menace.

Atlantis wrote:It's ironic that while cover-ups due to censorship are at the root of the problem in China and the Chinese are calling for free press, Italians are calling for the media and social media to be censored to avoid negative reporting that could damage the tourist industry or impact the dolce vita.

Give us a break. Regular Italians want transparency and accurate information like everybody else.

--------------------------------

Italy reports 75 new cases today for a total of around 500.
#15070331
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:Give us a break. Regular Italians want transparency and accurate information like everybody else.


Than why did they stop testing asymptomatic cases?

That may improve the figures of confirmed infections in the short term, but will lead to an explosion of cases in a couple of weeks.

At this point, Italy is worse than Korea and most Chinese provinces. But I guess Iran is still worse than Italy, if that's a consolaton.
#15070352
Atlantis wrote:Than why did they stop testing asymptomatic cases?

I suspect regular Italians are not in charge of testing protocols.

Atlantis wrote:At this point, Italy is worse than Korea and most Chinese provinces. But I guess Iran is still worse than Italy, if that's a consolaton.

I don't know what's happening in China in terms of testing, but Korea seems to also, quite reasonably, concentrate on testing people who display symptoms. The only exception I've come across are the members of the sect all of whom they plan to test.

Italy has tested around 10,000 people so far which is not exactly low. I'd wait how other European countries handle this before gleefully pointing fingers.
#15070364
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:I don't know what's happening in China in terms of testing, but Korea seems to also, quite reasonably, concentrate on testing people who display symptoms. The only exception I've come across are the members of the sect all of whom they plan to test.

Italy has tested around 10,000 people so far which is not exactly low. I'd wait how other European countries handle this before gleefully pointing fingers.


No, Korea is testing more than 1,000 a day. They now have 28,000 pending tests. When the Italians started to do tests, the number of infections exploded. That's why they changed protocol to only test people with symptoms. Ie., they won't know if contact persons caught the virus until it's too late. Since people typically don't have symptoms for 2 weeks or even longer, that means the Italians are now letting the virus spread out of control. There are now about a dozen countries with infections that can be traced back to Italy.

The pandemic will be a lot worse outside of China than in China, because people aren't taking it seriously due to dumb-wits who keep on saying that influenza is worse.

Soon China will be the safest place on the planet. The world wasted 2 months to form an adequate response and utterly failed.

#15070365
So the video suggested that there's a trade off between

1 The Economy
2 Keeping the hospitals open
3 Saving lives

As long as there's a chance we should prioritise containment. However if and when containment has failed, then we should prioritise the economy over keeping the hospitals open over minimising loss of life.
#15070369
Rich wrote:So the video suggested that there's a trade off between

1 The Economy
2 Keeping the hospitals open
3 Saving lives

As long as there's a chance we should prioritise containment. However if and when containment has failed, then we should prioritise the economy over keeping the hospitals open over minimising loss of life.


This is not unreasonable. I'm willing to roll the dice.
#15070375
We have a rumor going around in the tech community in Austin. The rumor is an employee of IBM (they have a large site in Austin) is infected.

It's here! I'll let you guys know if I start feeling sick.

That said, the SXSW festival is in a few weeks, I'm sure we are going to see a massive spike in infections. That festival brings 400,000 people to Austin over the course of 2 weeks. :eek:
#15070380
Zionist Nationalist wrote:Pope Francis falls ill day after supporting people with coronavirus

https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/27/pope-fra ... 14029/amp/


Coronavirus has an incubation period of at least a week. Falling ill the very next day means the Pope was probably infected by something else.

May things turn out for the better. Praise the Lord.
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