China's Wuhan shuts down transport as global alarm mounts over virus spread - Page 36 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15070661
late wrote:Interesting, do you have a source for that?



Seasonality of viruses is discussed a few times in those videos we have been posting. Go through the peak prosperity videos. There was data presented showing cold/wet, cold/dry, hot/wet all have long viral survival times outside the body, but hot/dry tends to kill them off quickly. Another showed infection rates of the covid-19 were higher in cold areas. So seasonality seems to be a factor. Trump might get lucky and summer will slow infection rates in N America over the next few months.


Rancid wrote:
Sure, and hopefully there's a vaccine around then too.

As for teh farmers and truck drivers, give them all hazmat suits. Done and done, everyone is fed and protected.



There is a promising new type of vaccine currently entering the early stages of testing. It uses a neat new method of introducing viral RNA into B cells. That will bestow an immunity much faster than the old antigene vaccine method. But it needs to be tested properly, so maybe next year, assuming it works as intended.


See, the thing is, though this virus might only have mild symptoms in 80% or cases (at least that is current wisdom, we really don’t know everything about this virus), it is highly contagious and so will infect the majority of the population. Deaths will be in the millions by the end of the year simply because such a large proportion of the population gets infected. Hospitals get overwhelmed, so more people die of other diseases due to lack of care they would otherwise received. Governments lose legitimacy due to so many people losing relatives to disease.


There is some good news. Children, for the most part, don’t seem to get the worst symptoms. Even infants seem to recover successfully. Other good news is that these corona viruses don’t mutate at anything like the mutation rate of rhinoviruses (eg: influenza). The Spanish flu was a rhinovirus that mutated at least twice during it’s spread across the world. The corona virus might not mutate. Certainly SARS and MERS didn’t.


I could offer some bad news about the possibility of genetic recombination of covid-19 with remnant DNA left behind in human genomes after MERS infections. Could this explain higher death rates in Iran? Only sequencing the Iran covid-19 virus will answer that.

@Atlantis there you go. Something to worry about.
#15070688
JohnRawls wrote:
Yeah we do. At 20+ it already has issues surviving. It can live on surfaces for days but in temperatures above 20+ it has problems while 30+ and higher it can't live longer than an hour. At 52 it dies straight away.


Buy the market!!

My wife was like "We need to drop 100k on this bitch!" I had to pull her back a little. That's a bit much. I'm all for buy buy buy, but not that much. :lol:
#15070694
Rancid wrote:Buy the market!!

My wife was like "We need to drop 100k on this bitch!" I had to pull her back a little. That's a bit much. I'm all for buy buy buy, but not that much. :lol:



Yeah, umm, no. :p


Be careful what you buy. There is some serious supply chain disruptions working their way through the system, flowing on from production tanking in China. Expect companies to go broke and drop like flies this year. Millions will lose their jobs.


3M (one of the companies that produces face masks) is considered a good investment at present. Might be worth it even though their stocks are going up. Th price is expected to go up for some Tim yet. The really good ones, surely, would be rock solid industries like Sims Metals (big scrap metal handler), that usual don’t see much change in stock prices. When those sort of stocks go way below historic values, buy what you can afford. But this might be later in the year. What other investment instruments can you take advantage off? You probably want something easy to turn over. Precious metals are going through the roof. Currencies will go all over the place. Toilet paper seems to be increasing valuable (no shit, ask @Patrickov ).

I won’t be buying shares in anything remotely associated with travel and tourism for a very long time. Especially not cruise ship companies. Shares in the company that is going to liquidate them might be ok. Or shares in the company that is going to scrap their ships could be another worthwhile buy. But you get the idea.
#15070695
foxdemon wrote:

Yeah, umm, no. :p


Be careful what you buy. There is some serious supply chain disruptions working their way through the system, flowing on from production tanking in China. Expect companies to go broke and drop like flies this year. Millions will lose their jobs.


3M (one of the companies that produces face masks) is considered a good investment at present. Might be worth it even though their stocks are going up. Th price is expected to go up for some Tim yet. The really good ones, surely, would be rock solid industries like Sims Metals (big scrap metal handler), that usual don’t see much change in stock prices. When those sort of stocks go way below historic values, buy what you can afford. But this might be later in the year. What other investment instruments can you take advantage off? You probably want something easy to turn over. Precious metals are going through the roof. Currencies will go all over the place. Toilet paper seems to be increasing valuable (no shit, ask @Patrickov ).

I won’t be buying shares in anything remotely associated with travel and tourism for a very long time. Especially not cruise ship companies. Shares in the company that is going to liquidate them might be ok. Or shares in the company that is going to scrap their ships could be another worthwhile buy. But you get the idea.


Of course of course. I'm not pouring my life savings into this, just money that if lost, I will not die over it. Further, this is money I do not intend to touch in 10-20 years, so I can sit on it.

I'm buying the whole market (S&P index) rather than companies. I'm betting on the entire economy to bounce in the longer term (5+ years from now)
#15070697
I don't have any stock, but I've been waiting for a collapse before I thought of possibly trying to buy any. It was glaringly obvious that the market was way overvalued, the only thing missing was a good global pandemic.

This moment the markets are down more than 18% from their mid February peak (2/12 or so), getting very close to bear territory.
#15070704
foxdemon wrote:Seasonality of viruses is discussed a few times in those videos we have been posting. Go through the peak prosperity videos. There was data presented showing cold/wet, cold/dry, hot/wet all have long viral survival times outside the body, but hot/dry tends to kill them off quickly. Another showed infection rates of the covid-19 were higher in cold areas. So seasonality seems to be a factor. Trump might get lucky and summer will slow infection rates in N America over the next few months.

This is surely preliminary at best?

foxdemon wrote:The local Asians have stopped wearing masks. They must have figured out the surgical masks only reduce the chance of an infected person spreading the disease (after we explained it to them).

This is what I read in every Austrian/German newspaper article, some of them accompanied by a photo of policemen wearing face masks, giving a somewhat mixed message.

GPs in NZ have been complaining that they are running out while the government is holding on to millions of them.

As far as I can establish, it depends on the type of mask and how well they fit.

foxdemon wrote:The local white Australians have no infection hygiene concept at all. A young idiot male was coughing away on the bus this morning, right over an old man. He should have had a surgical mask on to contain his muck spraying everywhere. The local governments need to start putting up posters on buses to educate idiots on hygiene. We need posters in public toilets too, about hand washing and closing toilet seats before flushing. If everyone is educated on hygiene and does their part, we can drop the R naught down. If we get it below 1, we win.

In Italy some people from the locked down villages escaped, were caught by police and brought back. One had a permit to go to hospital for a health condition, but he used it for visiting a friend. In Korea there's lots of anger at a female sect member who was apparently told repeatedly to get tested because of her symptoms but chose not to for a week or so, possibly spreading the virus far and wide.

It's usually a small minority who mess it up for everybody else and it's no different here.

-----------------------------------------------------

Have been trying to find some information on who tests and/or reports on asymptomatic cases. China has been criticised last week for not reporting those without symptoms who test positive and Korea doesn't seem to be reporting these cases either. Impossible to say how many asymptomatic people are tested by these countries or what the applicable guidelines are. Italy's case count is up to around 900.

The UK has started to take random samples from flu cases which seems useful.

Meanwhile, the CDC has come under criticism:
#15070722
Rancid wrote:Of course of course. I'm not pouring my life savings into this, just money that if lost, I will not die over it. Further, this is money I do not intend to touch in 10-20 years, so I can sit on it.

I'm buying the whole market (S&P index) rather than companies. I'm betting on the entire economy to bounce in the longer term (5+ years from now)



5 years might be optimistic. This could get as bad as the Great Depression. If I recall correctly, it took about 20 years for value to be restored in stocks from early 1930’s to mid 1950’s. But you are young and you have kids, so think in terms of a 25 year investment.

Crantag wrote:I don't have any stock, but I've been waiting for a collapse before I thought of possibly trying to buy any. It was glaringly obvious that the market was way overvalued, the only thing missing was a good global pandemic.

This moment the markets are down more than 18% from their mid February peak (2/12 or so), getting very close to bear territory.


Maybe there will be a short term rally giving an opportunity for some profit taking. But those supply chain disruptions will still be working their way through the system. I’d be expecting very bad economic conditions later in the year. Is it worth holding stocks for long early in the year? But this is more your territory, so I’ll leave it up to you to judge.


Kaiserschmarrn wrote:This is surely preliminary at best?


Yes and no. The basic stuff on viruses and moisture and temperature is older information with support. The stuff about this virus specifically hasn’t had time for peer review. This is one reason why I wrote to Rancid that we don’t yet completely understand this virus. So yes, it should be considered preliminary.





This is what I read in every Austrian/German newspaper article, some of them accompanied by a photo of policemen wearing face masks, giving a somewhat mixed message.

GPs in NZ have been complaining that they are running out while the government is holding on to millions of them.

As far as I can establish, it depends on the type of mask and how well they fit.



There are lots of different types of masks. The one commonly seen in photos is the surgical mask. It is designed to keep droplets in rather than keeping micro organisms outside. It protects from the wearer by preventing them spluttering muck everywhere.

Image


3M has a more advanced surgical mask, which in N95 rated, resistance to liquids, and has a filter material suitable for screening out bacteria and viruses. This one is intended for medical staff dealing with infectious patients and will protect the wearer. This is actually the technically correct mask for a pandemic situation but it needs to be reserved for medical staff.

https://www.3m.com.au/3M/en_AU/company-au/all-3m-products/~/3M-Flat-Fold-Particulate-Respirator-Surgical-Mask-1870-N95-P2-with-Fluid-Resistance/?N=5002385+8711017+3294348458&rt=rud


So, N95? What does it mean?

This is the American rating system. N is normal, P is oil solvent resistant, R is oil solvent proof. Can be 95, 99 or 100 rated filter. There can be activated carbon or similar features for dealing with orders and such like. Some have valve vents to make breathing easier.

For what most people want, a face mask to wear at the shopping centre during quarantine, an N95 with valve will do. These can be reused to a limited extent. But one needs to understand whatever virus particles are present will have been concentrated in the filter medium. Which is why they say don’t touch your mask while taking it off. Was hands throughly and avoid touching filter. Check CDC website for fuller explanation of mask use and reuse.

Europe has a different rating.

FFP1
FFP2
FFP3

I think the FFP2 is equivalent to the US N95.

Now Aust/NZ also have a rating system. P1, P2, P3.

P2 is an N95 on it’s own. Sealed face protection can push it up to P3.

So you will see P2/N95 rates masks in your shops in NZ (if there is any left). 3M masks with cool flow (ie: a valve) is what you want. Cambridge is another good brand of masks currently unavailable everywhere.


Medical staff will often have a face shield. This is to stop spilt and other body fluids landing on their respirator masks. That muck can compromise the filter medium. Also viruses can get in through the eyes, so goggles are typically worn.


There is a lot to know around masks. But hand cleaning really matters. A mask is all for nothing if the virus gets on your hands and then onto your face the moment you take the mask off.


In Italy some people from the locked down villages escaped, were caught by police and brought back. One had a permit to go to hospital for a health condition, but he used it for visiting a friend. In Korea there's lots of anger at a female sect member who was apparently told repeatedly to get tested because of her symptoms but chose not to for a week or so, possibly spreading the virus far and wide.

It's usually a small minority who mess it up for everybody else and it's no different here.


That is why those people in Wuhan videos are getting caught, thrown in a truck and taken to the quarantine hospitals. They were supposed to self quarantine at home but violated the quarantine so the authorities caught them and took them away.
#15070724
foxdemon wrote:Maybe there will be a short term rally giving an opportunity for some profit taking. But those supply chain disruptions will still be working their way through the system. I’d be expecting very bad economic conditions later in the year. Is it worth holding stocks for long early in the year? But this is more your territory, so I’ll leave it up to you to judge.


It's cool, I'm in no hurry. I'm pretty poor so this isn't really my casino, but when you do get a little savings they gotta go somewhere. However I'm certainly glad I did not buy any stocks over this past 6 months or so. I could have but I wasn't confident to put 1 nickel in that market, which has screamed bubble, you could argue since November 9 2016.
#15070726
Atlantis wrote:If you see Trumpets sweating profusely, it doesn't necessarily mean they have the corona already:

You are enjoying this in a strange kind of way, aren't you?

---------------------------------------------

foxdemon wrote:Yes and no. The basic stuff on viruses and moisture and temperature is older information with support. The stuff about this virus specifically hasn’t had time for peer review. This is one reason why I wrote to Rancid that we don’t yet completely understand this virus. So yes, it should be considered preliminary.

That makes sense.

foxdemon wrote:There are lots of different types of masks. The one commonly seen in photos is the surgical mask. It is designed to keep droplets in rather than keeping micro organisms outside. It protects from the wearer by preventing them spluttering muck everywhere.

The information you posted is pretty much what I found as well. The articles I mentioned don't make these distinctions (while people in accompanying photos wear the equivalent of N95 masks). Assuming it's not outright ignorance, which I find unlikely, there seems to be a deliberate ambiguity in the reporting which doesn't sit well with me.

foxdemon wrote:That is why those people in Wuhan videos are getting caught, thrown in a truck and taken to the quarantine hospitals. They were supposed to self quarantine at home but violated the quarantine so the authorities caught them and took them away.

I've seen some of those. It might seem draconian, but it has to be done.

Similarly, Singapore has stripped permanent residence off at least one person and Russia is deporting foreigners who violate quarantine directions.
#15070729
foxdemon wrote:5 years might be optimistic. This could get as bad as the Great Depression. If I recall correctly, it took about 20 years for value to be restored in stocks from early 1930’s to mid 1950’s. But you are young and you have kids, so think in terms of a 25 year investment.


That's fine too. I can ride for 30 years without touching this money. No problems.
#15070744
@foxdemon Thanks. Very scary. As I am approaching 70, I am not, of course, happy about this.

California reports its second community acquired case today distant from the first one. It is a 65 year old woman and for those who foolishly did not watch Foxdemon's video she exposed heath care workers at two hospitals.
#15070767
Rancid wrote:There are a lot of industry conferences that are still going to happen. I wonder at what point will they start to cancel more of them.

I'd say they should all cancel.


They need to be having more stakeholders conferences before they end up on stakes themselves.
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