[late]

[Rancid]

posted in

Well, this thread is too long, I'm not gonna go searching for it.

[fokker]

As far as I can tell, Western Europe is going for herd immunity which means that Eastern and Central Europe will probably follow in due course.

The eastern EU is taking a more careful approach as it doesn't want to end up in blind alley. But it's been communicated here already that the government won't attempt to stop the pandemic. This buys them time to better prepare for rise of cases. It's expected eventually most people will get it, but without overloading the healthcare system. The number of new cases is slowly accelerating despite all restrictions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc

China isn't going to be successful, we are going to re-infect them for what they have done

[Pants-of-dog]

@Sivad

Are you claiming that people in power are deliberately making this virus seem deadlier than it is?

[Prosthetic Conscience]

Mod note: Off-topic replies that were just ad hominem attacks and replies deleted. Try to put at least one phrase relevant to the topic in each post you make. And if I see another "oh no they're not --- oh yes they are" exchange, that'll go in the bin too. This is not a pantomime.

[Sivad]

German Network for Evidence-Based Medicine is an association of German scientists, researchers and medical professionals.

The network was founded in 2000 to disseminate and further develop concepts and methods of evidence-based and patient-oriented medicine in practice, teaching and research, and today has around 1000 members.

What they say:

In the majority of cases, COVID-19 takes the form of a mild cold or is even symptom-free. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that all cases of infection are recorded, in contrast with deaths which are almost completely recorded. This leads to an overestimation of the CFR.

According to a study of 565 Japanese people evacuated from Wuhan, all of whom were tested (regardless of symptoms), only 9.2% of infected people were detected with currently used symptom-oriented COVID-19 monitoring [5]. This would mean that the number of infected people is likely to be about 10 times greater than the number of registered cases. The CFR would then only be about one tenth of that currently measured. Others assume an even higher number of unreported cases, which would further reduce the CFR.

The widespread availability of SARS-CoV-2 tests is limited. In the USA, for example, an adequate, state-funded testing facility for all suspected cases has only been available since 11.3.2020 [6]. In Germany as well, there were occasional bottlenecks which contribute to an overestimation of the CFR.

As the disease spreads, it becomes increasingly difficult to identify a suspected source of infection. As a result, common colds in people who unknowingly had contact with a COVID-19 patient are not necessarily associated with COVID-19 and those affected do not go to the doctor at all.

An overestimation of the CFR also occurs when a deceased person is found to have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, but this was not the cause of death.

[…]

[T]he CFR of 0.2% currently measured for Germany is below the Robert Koch-Institute’s (RKI) calculated influenza CFRs of 0.5% in 2017/18 and 0.4% in 2018/19, but above the widely accepted figure of 0.1% for which there is no reliable evidence.

[…]

Beyond the (rather questionable) conclusions drawn from the historical example, there is little evidence that NPIs for COVID-19 actually lead to a reduction in overall mortality. A Cochrane Review from 2011 found no robust evidence for the effectiveness of border control screenings or social distancing.

[…]

A systematic review from 2015 found moderate evidence that school closures delay the spread of an influenza epidemic, but at high cost. Isolation at home slows down the spread of influenza but leads to increased infection of family members. It is questionable whether these findings can be transferred from influenza to COVID-19.

It is completely unclear how long the NPIs must be maintained and what effects could be achieved depending on their duration and intensity. The number of deaths might only be postponed to a later point in time, without any change in the total number.

[…]

Many questions remain unanswered. On the one hand, the media confronts us daily with alarming reports of an exponentially increasing number of ill and dead people worldwide. On the other hand, the media coverage in no way considers our required criteria for evidence-based risk communication.

The media is currently communicating raw data, for example, there have been “X” infected persons and “Y” deaths to date. However, this presentation fails to distinguish between diagnoses and infections.

– “Covid19: Where is the evidence?”, statement on their website, March 20th 2020

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10- ... rus-panic/

[foxdemon]

Even if 1% of cases require hospitalisation it's enough to tip most healthcare systems over the edge. Once that happens then the death rate rockets because there is insufficient capacity to save lives.

I love the way @Sivad avoids this sentence but addresses everything else.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/inside-a-new-york-city-hospital-system-battling-coronavirus/2020/03/28/38561d22-7071-11ea-a3ec-70d7479d83f0_story.html


Oh look! Another world class health system tumbles before Corona-chan. But hey, it’s just the flu, right bro?

[ThirdTerm]

In the majority of cases, COVID-19 takes the form of a mild cold or is even symptom-free. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that all cases of infection are recorded, in contrast with deaths which are almost completely recorded. This leads to an overestimation of the CFR.

According to a study of 565 Japanese people evacuated from Wuhan, all of whom were tested (regardless of symptoms), only 9.2% of infected people were detected with currently used symptom-oriented COVID-19 monitoring [5]. This would mean that the number of infected people is likely to be about 10 times greater than the number of registered cases. The CFR would then only be about one tenth of that currently measured. Others assume an even higher number of unreported cases, which would further reduce the CFR.

It took three chartered flights to evacuate 565 Japanese people from Wuhan and each flight had a number of people who tested positive for the coronavirus. There is a new study on the case fatality ratio (CFR). According to the study, only 6% of COVID-19 cases are reported in Japan, while it is 22% officially.

Aim
To estimate the percentage of symptomatic COVID-19 cases reported in different countries using case fatality ratio estimates based on data from the ECDC, correcting for delays between confirmation-and-death.

Methods Summary
In real-time, dividing deaths-to-date by cases-to-date leads to a biased estimate of the case fatality ratio (CFR), because this calculation does not account for delays from confirmation of a case to death, and under-reporting of cases.

Using the distribution of the delay from hospitalisation-to-death for cases that are fatal, we can estimate how many cases so far are expected to have known outcomes (i.e. death or recovery), and hence adjust the naive estimates of CFR to account for these delays.

The adjusted CFR does not account for under-reporting. However, the best available estimates of CFR (adjusting or controlling for under-reporting) are in the 1% - 1.5% range. We assume a baseline CFR, taken from a large study in China, of 1.38% (95% crI: 1.23–1.53%)[1]. If a country has an adjusted CFR that is higher (e.g. 20%), it suggests that only a fraction of cases have been reported (in this case, 1.3820=6.9% cases reported approximately).

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/ ... mates.html

[foxdemon]

Sometimes I think some PoFo members are too kind. If some members' eccentricities don't lead to harm to anybody innocent around them we probably do not need to care.

Since you are from HK, and thus might not be familiar with American expressions, I will explain. When one says “I am concern for that person’s well being”, what that means is that the speaker believes the subject is going mad.

As in: “I am concerned for that person’s well being and hope that they receive suitable psychiatric help as soon as possible.”

Though in the context of this thread it could be taken as an ad hominem attack. But Prosthetic Conscience didn’t delete it.

[Patrickov]

Since you are from HK, and thus might not be familiar with American expressions, I will explain. When one says “I am concern for that person’s well being”, what that means is that the speaker believes the subject is going mad.

As in: “I am concerned for that person’s well being and hope that they receive suitable psychiatric help as soon as possible.”

Though in the context of this thread it could be taken as an ad hominem attack. But Prosthetic Conscience didn’t delete it.

I understand that fully. What I mean is that what people say on PoFo may not be accurate reflections of their real-life sanity.

[blackjack21]

I'm pretty sure China is lying about the case load, but this seems a bit too high: The Closing of 21 Million Cell Phone Accounts in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll. I've heard that a whole lot of urns are appearing in Wuhan as well.

[annatar1914]

I'm pretty sure China is lying about the case load, but this seems a bit too high: The Closing of 21 Million Cell Phone Accounts in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll. I've heard that a whole lot of urns are appearing in Wuhan as well.

If I recall, the original story comes from the Falun Gong and one of their papers they own. Somewhat biased. I also seem to have read somewhere that many Chinese have more than one phone, and a lot of numbers got switched off when people were ordered home for a variety of reasons.

[blackjack21]

If I recall, the original story comes from the Falun Gong and one of their papers they own. Somewhat biased. I also seem to have read somewhere that many Chinese have more than one phone, and a lot of numbers got switched off when people were ordered home for a variety of reasons.

Yes. That article is directly from a Falun Gong news outlet. However, I'm seeing plausible numbers like this:

Delivery of 5,000 URNS to funeral home in coronavirus epicentre Wuhan raises fears China is underplaying nation's official 3,300 death toll
It would not surprise me if China is simply outright lying about cases right now.

[Sivad]

I'm pretty sure China is lying about the case load, but this seems a bit too high: The Closing of 21 Million Cell Phone Accounts in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll. I've heard that a whole lot of urns are appearing in Wuhan as well.

and blackjack is now MAGAing for the flulag.

[Sivad]

don't MAGA for the flulag, blackjack, that's gay as fuck.

[annatar1914]

Yes. That article is directly from a Falun Gong news outlet. However, I'm seeing plausible numbers like this:

Delivery of 5,000 URNS to funeral home in coronavirus epicentre Wuhan raises fears China is underplaying nation's official 3,300 death toll
It would not surprise me if China is simply outright lying about cases right now.

Oh sure, I think you're probably right about that. However I don't think it serves them well to exaggerate too much, that could bite them in the ass later as well.

[ness31]

its like the poor Chinese people have been microchipped with their phones. I’m so sad for them

[B0ycey]

Perhaps unwise. It certainly is political suicide if goes wrong going by global public opinion. But will be interesting test case once everything eases off.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52076293

[BeesKnee5]

Germany

348.619 Tests, 6,8 % positive

This is with them actively testing those most likely to be infected.

[BeesKnee5]

How covid deaths in New York compares to flu.