late wrote:1) You just compared a whale to a guppie and didn't notice the size difference. You don't know enough to talk about this.
Following this epidemic, there will be serious efforts to rebalance the economy and diversify the supply chain. What is obvious is that the efficiency gains of single sourcing have significant strategic risks. For example, it's ludicrous to have persistent shortages of N-95 masks, but that has more to do with having outsourced so much of the production to China, and regulatory bifurcation of markets between medical and industrial use such as mining, textiles, construction or other trades that involve the need to filter fine particulate matter. A similar realization occurred after oil hit $147 a barrel in 2007. Today, the US is effectively energy independent. In 10 years, you will see a dramatic difference in US supply lines. It won't happen overnight, but it will happen.
late wrote:2) You are pursuing an insane fantasy.
Diversification is bog simple and routine for investment managers. It's going to become common for supply chain managers too. They will have to calculate political, geographic and other risk factors into their decision making.
late wrote:3) That's managing trade, and it's already started. But that's a long ways from abrogating thousands of treaties and agreements.
Abrogating treaties happens all the time. The UK is pulling out of the EU for example. Emmanuel Macron is freaking out now about a potential end of the Schengen system. Ideology is nice for its simplicity, but when it comes into contact with reality, the ideology rarely seems as well thought out.
Truth to Power wrote:Zero interest is what they are paying, not what they are charging.
Banks are making their money on credit cards right now. Look what has happened to credit card stocks. If unemployment reaches 30%, they will see massive credit card defaults. There will be no moral stain for bankruptcy when the government orders businesses to shut down. There are even fears of a renter revolt, where people are simply not going to pay rent until the crisis is over. That will impact landlords, and their relationship with banks. Look what has happened to so many REITs.
-- Joe Biden to DJ Charlamagne tha God