[QatzelOk]

Opinions are like assholes; everybody's got one.

Another similarity: if you don't have an asshole, you die.

Same with opinions. And we rich Westerners live in societies where very few people have well-grounded opinions that might be useful to their peers.

And to compare the thinking of the common man to the hole where crap comes out of, shows a real disdain for your fellow man and democracy - and ultimately, your own inner voice.

[Donna]

Is he the President of the United States?

Every leader, every official, every doctor and scientist and every nurse and health care worker in this fight should be supported. Resume any argument with them after this is done.

That's kind of the point of the public health policy that myself and others have been supporting against denialists who spread dangerous misinformation that COVID-19 is like the seasonal flu. So it's just bewildering that you would interject on Sivad's behalf in that context if this is the point you're trying to make. People like him are going to get my parents killed, and you want us to...what, reconcile? You're overstepping here, @annatar1914.

[Pants-of-dog]

Because you don't possess the means and the tools necessary to determine from your temporal vantage point whether they are making the epidemic worse or not. It's possible, even probable, that some officials are making things better, some worse, some having little direct effect, but it's likely that none of this will be known until after this threat subsides.

We do have those means and tools.

We can see which communities have more deaths. We can look at their polices and create logical chains of causation that show how policies can lead to or avoid more deaths.

It is obvious that a country with the means to easily test, isolate, and treat large portions of their citizens is going to be more effective at stopping his viral outbreak than a country that does not have the means.

If a politician decides to, for example, massively cut health funding, fire a whole bunch of health workers, defunds the lab doing Coronavirus testing, and cut essential lab staff, should that politician be supported?

[BeesKnee5]

Another example of how contagious and deadly this is.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/st ... r-outbreak

60 people with no symptoms go to choir practise. They use hand sanitizer and avoid personal contact.

Within days members were dropping like flies and in the three weeks since, 45 found to be infected, three seriously ill and two dead.

[annatar1914]

We do have those means and tools.

We can see which communities have more deaths. We can look at their polices and create logical chains of causation that show how policies can lead to or avoid more deaths.

It is obvious that a country with the means to easily test, isolate, and treat large portions of their citizens is going to be more effective at stopping his viral outbreak than a country that does not have the means.

If a politician decides to, for example, massively cut health funding, fire a whole bunch of health workers, defunds the lab doing Coronavirus testing, and cut essential lab staff, should that politician be supported?

All these things are debatable under the rubrics of governmental policy and political life in more or less secure times. At this point now, we are in a time of emergency, and I can't for the life of me figure out what you and the rest of the gang want to do (unless it's just impotent screeching) except to think it's to carry out some sort of seditious rebellion on top of a pandemic.

Not that you would...

I swear, in less than four years three-fourths of you will likely be singing President Trump's praises.

[Donna]

All these things are debatable under the rubrics of governmental policy and political life in more or less secure times. At this point now, we are in a time of emergency, and I can't for the life of me figure out what you and the rest of the gang want to do (unless it's just impotent screeching) except to think it's to carry out some sort of seditious rebellion on top of a pandemic.

Not that you would...

I swear, in less than four years three-fourths of you will likely be singing President Trump's praises.

[colliric]

Another example of how contagious and deadly this is.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/st ... r-outbreak

60 people with no symptoms go to choir practise. They use hand sanitizer and avoid personal contact.

Within days members were dropping like flies and in the three weeks since, 45 found to be infected, three seriously ill and two dead.

Hand Sanitizer needs to be 60%-80% alcoholic to be effective, and they needed to use it all night(the article says a "greeter"/usher gave it to them at the beginning). And they may have avoided personal contact, but that doesn't mean they were socially isolating(keeping two metres apart). Also they were mostly elderly.

I'm just playing Devils Advocate, don't shoot me, lol.

[Sivad]

you've invented a magic forcefield to protect pensioners until the majority of the public are infected.

So you're saying that the operational protocols of hospitals and care facilities are just magical thinking? They don't actually protect anyone by reducing vectors and they're just the silly superstitions of medical science? So how is coronavirus spreading then? Ethereal vapors?

Please, just give your head a wobble.

My head is screwed on straight but you might want to dislodge yours.

Sivad wrote:
Is the Imperial model peer reviewed? Is the code available to the research community?

Did I say it was?

Didn't you make a big deal in the other thread about how the Oxford model wasn't peer reviewed? I could swear that was you?

I don't really give a shit about peer review because peer review is a fucking joke(in medical science it's an absolute travesty) but I just thought I should point out the smug dishonesty.

[annatar1914]

Some great news I hope;

https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/0 ... ronavirus/

I've got two elderly parents, neither of whom are easy to keep indoors. I have been exhausted by months of caring for them and a sick friend and his children before the Coronavirus epidemic happened, and it is nice to hear that people are coming together and doing something to help people who have the virus survive.

[Ter]

Some great news I hope;

Yes, it is great news.

The benefit of hydroxychloroquin was already known for sometime.
(I managed to buy a couple of boxes before the pharmacies ran out. Strange how fast people get to know about such matters and act on it)

It is pretty laughable that so many authorities keep on warning about the dangers of this medicine.
That is just a formidable and transparent hoax in order to stop people from purchasing it because they want to reserve it for themselves and their patients.

Just like they kept on saying that wearing masks was unnecessary for people who were not sick. They said that to keep the masks available for themselves.

About chloroquin : it was the prophylaxis of choice against malaria at least till the 1980s. I and my family also took it on a weekly basis in Africa at that time. Yes, we were aware that there were possible side effects but those were absolutely not as common as they try to convince people about them these days.

I am not telling anyone what to do and which meds to take but if I or anyone from my family gets the Chinese virus I will give them (or myself) hydroxychloroquin combined with Azythromycyn and Zinc. Until I hear otherwise.

[Sivad]

how contagious and deadly this is.

just to put it in perspective, 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year. And that's excluding tuberculosis.


SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data

Comparison of incidence and mortality rates of four common coronaviruses circulating in France with those of SARS-COV-2 in OECD countries.

In OECD countries. the mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 (1.3%) is not significantly different from that for common coronaviruses identified at the study hospital in France (0.8%; P=0.11).

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 7920300972

@BeesKnee5 you might want write the authors to inform them of your retarded objection to "lumping" different coronaviruses together.

[BeesKnee5]

Didn't you make a big deal in the other thread about how the Oxford model wasn't peer reviewed? I could swear that was you?

I don't really give a shit about peer review because peer review is a fucking joke(in medical science it's an absolute travesty) but I just thought I should point out the smug dishonesty.

I also pointed out that at this time neither model is reliable due to the lack of data.

That your last response was to me saying how high the level of uncertainty is in the Imperial model shows me you are more interested in defending your box than taking notice of what is being said.

just to put it in perspective, 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year. And that's excluding tuberculosis.


SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data

Comparison of incidence and mortality rates of four common coronaviruses circulating in France with those of SARS-COV-2 in OECD countries.

In OECD countries. the mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 (1.3%) is not significantly different from that for common coronaviruses identified at the study hospital in France (0.8%; P=0.11).

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 7920300972

@BeesKnee5 you might want write the authors to inform them of your retarded objection to "lumping" different coronaviruses together.

How is comparing, 'Lumping together'?

It's the complete opposite.

So you're saying that the operational protocols of hospitals and care facilities are just magical thinking? They don't actually protect anyone by reducing vectors and they're just the silly superstitions of medical science? So how is coronavirus spreading then? Ethereal vapors?

My head is screwed on straight but you might want to dislodge yours.

How many care homes insist on hand washing on entry or face masks. Check temperature on entry or reject anyone if they cough. Let alone those who are infectious without symptoms.

Your trust in the hygiene control at care homes is completely misplaced. They are not hospitals, they are effectively a home from home with lots of staff and family coming and going.

This is of course completely ignoring the point that the majority of pensioners aren't in care homes or hospitals anyway.

[Sivad]

You've probably heard that COVID-19 is far deadlier than the flu. But it could turn out to be more akin to a severe flu season. Surprisingly, both of those assessments come from the same authority at the same time: Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's chief infectious disease specialist.

Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has repeatedly cited more jarring figures in public. For instance, Fauci declared in March 11 congressional testimony that the current coronavirus “is 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu,” which would be about 1 percent. His testimony generated news headlines that blared across the internet and television news, and it remains frequently cited today.

But among his learned colleagues in academia, he has provided the more conservative analysis.

“[T]he case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%,” Fauci wrote in an article published in the New England Journal of Medicine on March 26. “This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”

A day after the NEJM article was published, Fauci was back to repeating the higher fatality number in public rather than “considerably less than 1%.”

“The mortality of [COVID-19] is about 10 times [flu],” Fauci told Comedy Central host Trevor Noah on March 27.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy ... blic-virus

How is comparing, 'Lumping together'?

It's the complete opposite.

exactly.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

How is comparing, 'Lumping together'?

It's the complete opposite.

They also rarely talk about hospital admission and ICU usage. This virus has Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in its name for a reason. It will zoom in on your lungs (although it has been found in other tissue as well) and thrives there, hence the need for ventilation.

This is of course completely ignoring the point that the majority of pensioners aren't in care homes or hospitals anyway.

Talking about care homes, France added around 900 deaths to their numbers today to account for people having died in care homes. They usually only count people who have died in hospital.

On April 2, France reported 884 additional deaths that have occurred in nursing homes over the past days and weeks [source]. The French Government did not include these deaths in their official count, as their count only takes into consideration deaths of hospitalized patients. Following international standards of correct inclusion, our statistics will include these deaths, and will add them to the April 2, 2020 count following the attribution criteria of date of report.

-------------------------------------------
This graph is from an Economist article which I can't access, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if we'd be seeing excess deaths that are not (yet) counted and/or from other conditions because of overwhelmed healthcare systems in the hardest hit regions.

[Sivad]

but I wouldn't be at all surprised if we'd be seeing excess deaths that are not (yet) counted

Yeah, the death count has been wildly inflated, they're counting everyone who tests positive regardless of whether they died from corona:

Prof. Walter Ricciardi, scientific advisor to Italy's minister of health said, and I quote, "The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus. ... On re-evaluation by the NIH," he says, "only 12% of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88% of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many two or three."

[Kaiserschmarrn]

Yeah, the death count has been wildly inflated, they're counting everyone who tests positive regardless of whether they died from corona:

Yeah, you and I have already had an exchange about this, which you abandoned for some reason, so no need for you to repeat the same talking points and links over and over.

[Godstud]

Yes, @Sivad , we know you don't give a fuck about anyone but yourself. You don't need to keep repeating the same tired and deceitful shit!

Everyone knows people with pre-existing conditions are dying, but also people with NO pre-existing conditions. perfectly health people are dying, as well, or getting so sick that they need to be hospitalized, which causes other problems.

[Sivad]

Yeah, you and I have already had an exchange about this, which you abandoned for some reason

I didn't abandon anything, I explained the different causes of death(immediate, intermediate, and underlying) and why it's difficult to determine CoD and you went deliberately obtuse. I'm pretty sure you even said something like "I couldn't care less".

[Godstud]

@Sivad Do you even have a fucking clue what a pre-existing condition IS?

I fucking doubt it!


5 Preexisting Conditions That Can Make It Harder to Fight Coronavirus
If you have certain physical health issues or a mental health disorder, you may be more susceptible to COVID-19.

Depression and anxiety
COVID-19 doesn’t only affect people with pre-existing physical conditions—it can have a serious impact on those with mental health issues, like anxiety and depression, even if you are not infected with the coronavirus.

“Fear of the virus and all the changes it’s causing are driving anxiety levels up for everyone, but for people who have an anxiety disorder it’s so much worse,” Gail Saltz, MD, associate professor of psychiatry at the NY Presbyterian Hospital Weill-Cornell School of medicine and host of the upcoming Personology podcast from iHeartRadio, tells Health. Dr. Saltz warns that people who have managed their disorder may relapse, and those actively struggling may be much more symptomatic.

“Anxiety also worsens depression, particularly those whose depression is of the ‘agitated’ variety, a subtype of the illness characterized by jittery, anxious, irritable behavior,” she adds.
https://www.health.com/condition/infect ... conditions

[Kaiserschmarrn]

I didn't abandon anything, I explained the different causes of death(immediate, intermediate, and underlying) and why it's difficult to determine CoD and you went deliberately obtuse. I'm pretty sure you even said something like "I couldn't care less".

I replied to your obfuscation at which point you stopped responding to me. If you can't keep track of your conversations because you post all over the place, that's not my problem, but the last thing I need is your robotic replies with exactly the same points which I have already noted and discarded as nonsense.