China's Wuhan shuts down transport as global alarm mounts over virus spread - Page 116 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15082825
AFAIK wrote:Trump won the primary because the base was sick of technocrats and elites. Then the Democrats thought Hillary could just ride Obama's coattails into office. Michael Moore predicted her loss saying demos would vote for her but without enthusiasm, which means they won't push their friends to vote for her and she lost the electoral college.

How well do you think biden can do then?
#15082832
Atlantis wrote:Mass graves in New York, in the richest city in the most powerful country in the world. Posterity will continue to study forever how Trump was able to mismanage the pandemic. It defies comprehension, and yet it is crystal clear in view of Trump's personality.

@Sivad, is it deadly enough now or do you want more corpses?

NY's Cuomo, de Blasio Delayed Distancing, Increasing Death Toll

Early inactions by New York’s leaders could have contributed to a higher death toll in the coronavirus crisis.

The New York Times reports that initial efforts by the state’s officials to combat the coronavirus outbreak were delayed and could have led to the city becoming the epicenter of the pandemic.

The first confirmed coronavirus case in New York City took place on March 1. A woman traveling home from Iran on Flight 701 from Doha, Qatar to John F. Kennedy International Airport in late February tested positive.

The next day, Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Bill de Blasio held a news conference promising to track down everyone on that flight. They didn’t.

A day later a lawyer from New Rochelle, who had no travel history, tested positive indicating the community spread of the virus was underway. Health officials now know the virus likely was already in New York prior to the first confirmed case.

On March 5, de Blasio was telling the public not to worry and to go about their normal activities. New York leaders touted having the best hospitals in the world and that plans to contain the spread were in place.

Several days before that Gov. Cuomo expressed a similar standpoint.

“Excuse our arrogance as New Yorkers — I speak for the mayor also on this one — we think we have the best health care system on the planet right here in New York,” Cuomo said on March 2 during a press conference. “So, when you’re saying, what happened in other countries versus what happened here, we don’t even think it’s going to be as bad as it was in other countries.”

But that wasn’t the case and New York’s cases continued to grow. New York reported back-to-back record numbers of deaths this week with 731 deaths announced on Tuesday and 779 announced Wednesday. The overall death toll in New York is 6,268 people.

Dr. Thomas Frieden, the former head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and former commissioner of the city’s Health Department told The New York Times if the state and city had adopted widespread social-distancing measures a week or two earlier, including closing schools, stores and restaurants, then the estimated death toll from the outbreak might have been reduced by 50 to 80 percent.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/cuomo-de-Bla ... /id/961976
#15082869
Early inactions by New York’s leaders could have contributed to a higher death toll in the coronavirus crisis.
Seeing as Americans look to their President for action(even Mayors and Governors), I don't see how this is relevant, seeing as Trump was sitting on his fat ass telling everyone it wasn't a big deal.

Fuck, you right-wingers sure have a short memory. :knife:
#15082870
AFAIK wrote:I get the impression that Democrats lose as much as Republicans win. They seem determined to elect the worst candidate available during their primaries.



This is true, and completely baffling. The DNC actually do have some worthwhile people but they seem to insist on putting their most unlikable people to the fore. There must be some toxic internal party cultural issues.


Meanwhile, yet more reports of coronavirus induced xenophobia in India and China toward foreigners.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-30/indias-coronavirus-lockdown-turns-ugly/12102032


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-09/coronavirus-intensifies-anti-foreigner-sentiment-in-china/12128224


There remains a lot of reports of xenophobia toward people of Asian decent in the west.

Thanks to certain fancy Chinese soups, the world has gone quite batty.


@Kaiserschmarrn

I have been trying to make sense of Australian statistics. There is a very low death rate and a very high recovery rate compared to world averages.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-04/what-is-recovering-from-coronavirus-like/12119282


This article claims 600 recovered, but the ABC stats claim almost 3000 recovered. Almost half of all cases. Overseas have much lower recovery rates. Do other countries only count those released from hospital as recovered rather than anyone who tested positive and now tests negative?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704

I really don’t know why the death rate in Australia is so low. Maybe the pandemic is at an earlier stage and more critical cases will not recover?
#15082877
foxdemon wrote:I really don’t know why the death rate in Australia is so low. Maybe the pandemic is at an earlier stage and more critical cases will not recover?


Viruses generally struggle to spread in Australia due to our hotter climate and low population density even in our capital cities. The death rate depends on the viral load too(how much of the virus succeeded infecting it's host and how quickly it duplicates) and Australians may be getting infected with generally lower viral loads(once again due to our hot climate and low population density).

Australia is the lucky country from that point of view. Also I guess the government's social distance measures are indeed mostly working.

Tasmania has shut it's borders to the mainland and whatnot.
#15082895
colliric wrote:Viruses generally struggle to spread in Australia due to our hotter climate and low population density even in our capital cities. The death rate depends on the viral load too(how much of the virus succeeded infecting it's host and how quickly it duplicates) and Australians may be getting infected with generally lower viral loads(once again due to our hot climate and low population density).

Australia is the lucky country from that point of view. Also I guess the government's social distance measures are indeed mostly working.

Tasmania has shut it's borders to the mainland and whatnot.



Stats are actually difficult to correctly interpret. Another possibility is that many cases are young people. The highest groups are females between 20 and 30. They travel a lot and most cases are from overseas. Young females are at the lower end of the risk spectrum.

But it is the fact that our stats come from testing returning travellers that most worries me. Those stats reflect what is happening in Europe and America (sources of most infections aside from cruise ships). It really shows us how social distancing is working in those places.

What I really want to know more about is local transmission. At present 10% of cases are local with no known source of infection. But testing until recently has been heavily focused on returned travellers. How much confidence can we have that local stats accurately reflect the real situation?

Typically hospital admissions would indicate under testing. But critical cases only seem to be around the 500 mark and deaths are at 50 or so. Either there isn’t much local transmission not detected or it is still too early for cases to show up in hospital. Usually people go bad after 10 days or so, if they are going to take a turn for the worse. If there isn’t a surge in hospital cases in the next week, we just might have the virus under control.

Unfortunately the rest of the world, with a handful of expeditions mainly in Asia, haven’t done so well. It isn’t clear what the next step is if the rest of the world can’t get their acts together.
#15082956
@Atlantis

That guy in the video can’t be serious about trusting commies. :lol:

Second point, Australia is a federation just like America. We haven’t had the same problems thus his thesis that different systems would explain America’s problems is not valid.


More on the unfolding spectacle of America’s dysfunctional response on the latest Peak Prosperity video. Feds seizing supplies from hospitals. Don’t ask me why :?:


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aEubPR36pzk


Also more technical stuff on odd immune system behaviour. Young people don’t seem to be developing much if any specific immunity. There is variation in older cohorts, many developing detectable levels of anti bodies, but some not doing so. This has implications for vaccine development and offers a potential explanation of the reported reinfection and sudden deaths in Asia (that @Drlee still doesn’t believe).
#15082965
foxdemon wrote:@Atlantis

That guy in the video can’t be serious about trusting commies. :lol:

Second point, Australia is a federation just like America. We haven’t had the same problems thus his thesis that different systems would explain America’s problems is not valid.


I remember an exhibition of modern art at the Palais Chaillot in Paris back in the 80s. Most exhibits were really far out, except for the official Chinese contribution, which looked like some fairyland scene from Disneyland. Ie. they do things differently.

The Chinese presentation from the video seems naive by Western standards, but it's infinitely more mature than anything we get from the white house. Unfortunately, he is right, people in the West still didn't understand what worked in China. They are prevented from understanding by a mix of hubris and geopolitical instincts.

Regarding the benefits of the federal or central system, he is right too. Beijing ruled by a strong hand to concentrate resources where needed, while a dysfunctional and weak administration in Washington managed to invalidate the advantages of the federal system by a botched approach of the central power. The Americans got the worst of both systems.

Germany has a true federal system, which worked very well with coordination from the center in Berlin. Health is the competence of the 16 States and not the federal government. They developed a test in early January before the first case was imported and made that test available to the world. 400 local health authorities rolled out a broad diagnostic approach with hundreds of labs, universities and clinics. They don't count negative tests, but they must have done a lot more testing than Korea. There was no central body like the CDC in the US that prevented testing. The Southern states were able to implement measures earlier than the Northern states, which had fewer cases due to their distance to Italy.

Immunity and a vaccine are the last two straws the West is clinging to. If they snap too, we'll have to start from scratch by importing Chinese systems wholesale.
#15082967
@Atlantis the guy in the video is saying we should trust his government’s number or we are prejudice. Sorry, they have been too shonky in the past. I will wait and see just how effective China’s response has been.

A better source of information is S Korea. We have no reason not to trust their numbers. When they match what China is saying, then maybe we can trust that part of information from China.

There is also HK, SG and Taiwan. Still waiting to see what happens in Japan.

Germany does seem to be more effective than the average in Europe. The peak prosperity guy seems to like what the Czechs are doing. Western Europe in general though, hasn’t really impressed. What do you think went wrong with those other European governments?


AFAIK there never was a coronavirus vaccine. Usually vaccines take a few years to develop. So to get a vaccine for this virus would require two impressive feats, developing the first coronavirus vaccine ever and doing it is record time (18 months). It does sound a lot like wishful thinking.

And there seems to be poorly understood complexities with the way it interacts with the immune system. First there was evidence to suggest it disrupted singling associated with active parts of the innate immunity, resulting in a slow response and asymptomatic cases. And now it seems there is some sort of non-specific way young people suppress the virus. Oh, and it might have a latent stage, like herpes, so it can reactivate.

It is a nasty little virus. Also it’s high RO. Maybe around 4. Luckily it isn’t as lethal as SARS 1 or MERS. Unless it mutates.... :eek:
#15082989
@foxdemon, the guy in the video tries to strike a balanced by saying that different countries use different approaches and that we should not reject learning from each other on ideological grounds.

An Air France airplane that was meant to pick up millions of masks in China for France and Germany got stuck in China because the pilot tested positive in China. He had to fly all the way to China to get tested because in France they only test severe cases. Mongolia imported its first case from France and not from neighboring China. Italy exported more cases than China.

Except for Germany, most countries in Europe still don't do enough testing. In Italy, the virus was misdiagnosed and spread undetected for over a month, as in the US. Instead of warning, governments downplayed the danger, which deprived them of the means to restrict freedom of movement at an early stage. In March, tourists still visited Italy and sky resorts in the Alps, where small villages like Ischgl in Austria spread the virus across all of Europe. The East of Europe is in greater danger than the West because health systems are underdeveloped. The virus spread there later because they are still not as integrated with the global economy as the West. The virus first spread by business travelers and tourists.

We can learn most from China even if we don't use the same methods. An attempt to set up a small nation state as example because we have ideological blinkers is absurd. People need to grow up.
#15082993
Many people get spooked by a selective reading of scientific research. If a research finds that in one case a virus survived on a surface for 17 days, that doesn't mean that anybody gets infected because of it.

Mr Streeck is a professor for virology and the director of the Institute of virology and HIV Research at the University Bonn. He explained the methodology of his new study in Heinsberg, the “epicentre” of Germany’s COVID-19 outbreak, and talked about potential plans for a country to move forward gradually in getting back to a “normal” life.

During recent weeks, his team completed substantial research conducted through surveys and investigations in homes across the Heinsberg region - where more than 1,400 confirmed cases had been reported. Heinsberg has an approximate population of 250,000 inhabitants and has confirmed 46 coronavirus-related deaths.

These research findings have already provided some indication on how the virus works, as Streeck clarified:

There is no significant risk of catching the disease when you go shopping. Severe outbreaks of the infection were always a result of people being closer together over a longer period of time, for example the après- ski parties in Ischgl, Austria.” He could also not find any evidence of ‘living’ viruses on surfaces. “When we took samples from door handles, phones or toilets it has not been possible to cultivate the virus in the laboratory on the basis of these swabs….”

To actually 'get' the virus it would be necessary that someone coughs into their hand, immediately touches a door knob and then straight after that another person grasps the handle and goes on to touches their face.” Streeck therefore believes that there is little chance of transmission through contact with so-called contaminated surfaces.

The fact that COVID 19 is a droplet infection and cannot be transmitted through the air had previously also been confirmed by virologist Christian Drosten of Berlin's Charité. He had pointed out in an interview that coronavirus is extremely sensitive to drying out, so the only way of contracting it is if you were to “inhale the droplets.”


However, there are different findings on how the coronavirus spreads. Experts from the US Institute of Health CDC and NIH had come to the conclusion that the virus can survive 24 hours on paper, three hours in aerosols and up to three days on plastics and stainless steel. As the Robert Koch Institute states on their website, however, scientific studies like this are realised under experimental conditions, which is why they are not very representative for the risk of transmission in daily life.

Heinsberg will now be the centre for conducting another study, which goes deeper, aiming to further evaluate how the virus spreads and how it can be contained. The study will follow a representative sample of 1,000 people.

“The results from this more detailed study could then serve as a basis for recommendations for national exit strategies out of the lockdowns,” offers Streeck.

“It is important to obtain this data in order to make sure that decisions are taken based on facts rather than assumptions. The data should serve as a basis of information for the government so they can then think about their further course of action,” he continues.


https://today.rtl.lu/news/science-and-e ... 98185.html
#15083121
Atlantis wrote:Except for Germany, most countries in Europe still don't do enough testing.


I don't think it is appropriate to glorify Germany given that facts disprove the above statement. One only needs to look at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ column tests per 1M population to see there are many European countries now that do similar number of tests per 1M population as Germany does (column is sortable). The UK and France remain a problem.

Btw is Germany still holding up protective equipment on German border that Austria and Switzerland bought?

Atlantis wrote:The Chinese presentation from the video seems naive by Western standards, but it's infinitely more mature than anything we get from the white house. Unfortunately, he is right, people in the West still didn't understand what worked in China. They are prevented from understanding by a mix of hubris and geopolitical instincts.

Immunity and a vaccine are the last two straws the West is clinging to. If they snap too, we'll have to start from scratch by importing Chinese systems wholesale.


If Germany wants to follow Chinese methods, go for it. We value freedom and democracy.

foxdemon wrote:Germany does seem to be more effective than the average in Europe. The peak prosperity guy seems to like what the Czechs are doing. Western Europe in general though, hasn’t really impressed. What do you think went wrong with those other European governments?


AFAIK there never was a coronavirus vaccine. Usually vaccines take a few years to develop. So to get a vaccine for this virus would require two impressive feats, developing the first coronavirus vaccine ever and doing it is record time (18 months). It does sound a lot like wishful thinking.

It is a nasty little virus. Also it’s high RO. Maybe around 4. Luckily it isn’t as lethal as SARS 1 or MERS. Unless it mutates....


The whole western EU screwed it up. Especially the European commission has proved itself to be completely useless in time of a crisis. V4 countries are doing fine. They are the safest place to be in the EU. Medical personnel is not overloaded and seriously ill people can expect to get good treatment. Most of these countries don't even have expert well known virologists. But they have common sense to apply solutions from the past to keep the infection at manageable level.

I'm doubtful about the vaccine, by the time it will be developed the virus will have infected millions of people so there is chance it will not work against all mutations and we will keep getting a new vaccine every year.

It will likely be never eradicated as many people will be unable to afford a vaccine. It will be a major problem to produce it in sufficient numbers too.
#15083188
fokker wrote:I'm doubtful about the vaccine, by the time it will be developed the virus will have infected millions of people so there is chance it will not work against all mutations and we will keep getting a new vaccine every year.

It will likely be never eradicated as many people will be unable to afford a vaccine. It will be a major problem to produce it in sufficient numbers too.

I am 76 years old and there is no way at my age that I would ever take one of those virus vaccines. I am not that stupid. You young people can have at it if you wish.
#15083200
I am 76 years old and there is no way at my age that I would ever take one of those virus vaccines. I am not that stupid. You young people can have at it if you wish.


This is an unintelligent decision to make.

I sincerely hope you are not an anti-vaxer. They are profoundly stupid people.
#15083205
Drlee wrote:This is an unintelligent decision to make.

I sincerely hope you are not an anti-vaxer. They are profoundly stupid people.


Trumpers are having a hard time living with the coronavirus. They will take the vaccine because they don't wanna get sick or die. But let us have a trip down the memory lane:

#15083207
Drlee wrote:This is an unintelligent decision to make.

I sincerely hope you are not an anti-vaxer. They are profoundly stupid people.

I am not against people taking vaccines. I have had my share. I just have serious side effects with flu vaccines. So I am not going to take a chance with another anti-viral vaccine at my age. I've already had the pneumonia vaccine several years ago with no problems, so I think I am good to go. My doctor is fine with that.
Praise the Lord.
#15083223
I just have serious side effects with flu vaccines.


For the bazillionth time....Corona Virus is not influenza.

So I am not going to take a chance with another anti-viral vaccine at my age.


What chance is that? What happened before?
I've already had the pneumonia vaccine several years ago with no problems, so I think I am good to go.


Yes. If you get CV-19 at your age you will certainly be good to go....and go pretty quickly.

My doctor is fine with that.


Is she? Well you should always do what she says. If she does not believe it is safe for you to take the new vaccine then that is that. Of course there is no vaccine at this point so she could not know whether you would be affected poorly or not but if you have a doctor you trust you should always follow their advice. Certainly you should not put your medical decisions into an internet presence that could be a 15 year old in his mom's basement.

I on the other hand, would take the experimental vaccine today.

Praise the Lord.


And when you pray, do not be like the hypocrites. For they love to pray standing in the synagogues and on the street corners to be seen by men. Truly I tell you, they already have their full reward. 6But when you pray, go into your inner room, shut your door, and pray to your Father, who is unseen. And your Father, who sees what is done in secret, will reward you
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