[Beren]

Published: 19 May 2020

Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement

Corinne Le Quéré, Robert B. Jackson, Matthew W. Jones, Adam J. P. Smith, Sam Abernethy, Robbie M. Andrew, Anthony J. De-Gol, David R. Willis, Yuli Shan, Josep G. Canadell, Pierre Friedlingstein, Felix Creutzig & Glen P. Peters

Nature Climate Change (2020)

Abstract

Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world. Many international borders were closed and populations were confined to their homes, which reduced transport and changed consumption patterns. Here we compile government policies and activity data to estimate the decrease in CO2 emissions during forced confinements. Daily global CO2 emissions decreased by –17% (–11 to –25% for ±1σ) by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels, just under half from changes in surface transport. At their peak, emissions in individual countries decreased by –26% on average. The impact on 2020 annual emissions depends on the duration of the confinement, with a low estimate of –4% (–2 to –7%) if prepandemic conditions return by mid-June, and a high estimate of –7% (–3 to –13%) if some restrictions remain worldwide until the end of 2020. Government actions and economic incentives postcrisis will likely influence the global CO2 emissions path for decades.

[Godstud]

No surprise there, really.

Gas is cheap as heck, but there's simply nowhere to go, as most things are shut down. That really cuts down on the need to travel. Many people not commuting to work, also helps.

[late]

"On April 7, global carbon dioxide emissions plummeted to levels not seen since 2006, according to a study released yesterday that suggests the coronavirus pandemic might have led to the largest reduction in CO2 ever recorded.

But few scientists are cheering the sudden change.

But a deeper look shows that individual changes in behavior produce limited emission reductions. Much of the world stopped traveling, eating in restaurants and buying merchandise. It was an unmatched experiment and yet 80% of emissions were untouched.

“It shocked me at how much emissions have dropped temporarily and showed me how hard it is to reduce emissions annually for years,” said Rob Jackson, an earth scientist at Stanford University and a co-author of the study.

“I think what this really shows is that in order to meet the sort of ambitious decarbonization targets, we need really large structural shifts in our energy system,” she said."

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-co2-emissions-saw-record-drop-during-pandemic-lockdown/

[Beren]

I wonder if there's ever been such a great progressive pandemic like that. It's like a gift that can't stop giving.

[Godstud]

Manufacturing, electricity production, and many other things are not going to be affected significantly.

[Beren]

Nowhere to hide or run from coronavirus, no back to "normal" especially. It's going to chase us until we change for the better.

[Godstud]

Yes, and many countries are already embracing a "New Normal", until a vaccine or treatment is available.

In Thai, but you can get the "picture".
https://www.bbc.com/thai/thailand-52523035

[Beren]

You should get the picture too.

Lufthansa Bailout Deal in View After Airline Warns on Urgency

Grounded Deutsche Lufthansa AG aircraft at Munich Airport. Photographer: Michaela Handrek-Rehle/Bloomberg

Just no more flying around the planet like crazy, or else coronavirus gets you!

[Godstud]

Airlines and travelling aren't a problem. These can be safely dealt with. People can travel in safety.

I am pretty sure that countries are going to have people taking some extra insurance and precautions when they plan their itineraries.

Things like the existence of Cruise ships need to be seriously looked at. These ships were a petri dish of disease even before Covid-19.

[Beren]

Coronavirus hates airlines but likes sailing.

Dutch students sail home across the Atlantic due to coronavirus