Donna wrote:So if Trump is re-elected, we can see this as a reaction to it? While electing Biden would be a repudiation of Trump's attempt to manufacture a reaction? Is this what you're saying?
In some ways that's what it would be. The first time Trump was elected, it was
already a mild reaction to this, along with the populist moment it was and an
expression of the frustration of rural and small town America over its economic decline (indeed, although the American economy was strong overall, rural America has had a rough time
and particularly so in 2015-2016 when it was in many ways facing a recession).
But now I think culture will be an even more prominent issue in the election, which is better for Trump than making it about his COVID-19 response or the trade war with China (China's measures were specifically directed at farmers and other Trump constituencies). So yes, if he were elected we would be seeing the Thermidorian Reaction on November.
But even if Trump doesn't win, this issue doesn't just end there. The Democrats' key constituencies seem on the way to be divided as this cultural revolution goes on, the far left wing of the party that voted for Bernie - along with those who are farther to the left of him and the Party itself - may stand behind it but the moderate wing does not, even if it may share some key sentiments such as believing the cops are too aggressive or even biased against African Americans, I doubt they agree with proposals like defunding the cops (see the survey evidence above) and also don't appreciate the behavior by some protesters such as rioting, shouting elected officials and pretty much all dissent down or the looting (particularly if they have been directly affected by it) - along with their ever increasing fanaticism.
So I wouldn't interpret a Biden win as a support for it either, but as you said a repudiation of Trump and not just of his behavior now but throughout his Presidency (the Russian and Ukrainian investigations, his constant attempts to divide Americans by appealing to identity politics in his own way, his general inconsistency, his COVID-19 response, not getting along with traditional allies in Western Europe, etc).
If Biden wins, you may also see something that's actually revolutionary in the sense of fulfilling the cycle. Taking the schematic proposed by Crane Brinton in
The Anatomy of Revolution, often, the very first government that replaces the Ancien Regime is a moderate one, which in turn gets overthrown by a hardline revolutionary one, and then the Thermidorian Reaction happens. The Reaction is either carried out by the hardline revolutionary government itself as it decides to act in a more practical manner to be able to consolidate its authority or the said government gets overthrown. An example of the former is essentially what the Bolsheviks did with the Purges and was deepened by Stalin and the Great Purge - both Lenin and specially Stalin eventually became concerned about the actual process governing than about developing the theoretical and ideological aspects of bolshevism, and as such they simultaneously engaged in the purging of the opposition, the purging of the ideologues within their ranks, the monitoring of the population and also about raising the overall living standards of the population by means of forced industrialization to increase economic output as much as they could - and after the Great Purge there was a gradual yet clear repudiation of some aspects of Marxism such as its opposition to nationalism, one beyond the idea of internationalizing the Revolution since that became a non-starter early on and was likely interpreted as evidence of the fragility of the newly established Bolshevik regime, encouraging the change that amounted to the Reaction. Examples of the latter is what happened to the revolutionary regime headed by Robespierre in the original Thermidorian Reaction, what happened to the French Revolution of 1848 with the repression of the June Days Uprising and then the election of Napoleon III a few months later, and also what happened (but in a different, more peaceful manner) with the end of the Confederation Period of the US and the replacement of the Articles of Confederation by the Constitution.
Biden being elected would be the moderates getting to power, but he won't be overthrown, I doubt so, if elected I think the division within the Democrats' key constituencies will become more apparent and, while at the beginning he may be super conciliatory and open to demands the far left wing of the Party in an attempt to keep it united, at some point it will make a demand he and the moderate wing he represents can't consent to. Maybe it will be a demand to federalize policing in the US or otherwise get the Federal Government way more involved in it than it is now. Maybe it will be a demand for Medicare for All, along with the taxation necessary for it. Maybe it will be all of that and an attempt to turn him into Bernie Sanders. Either way, he and the moderates will not consent to the demands, and the Party will end up dividing itself - and this will in itself be a Thermidorian Reaction of sorts, particularly if they start to bring moderate Republicans into the fold (say pretty much all the never trumpers) and it translates in a heightened resolve by local Democratic elected officials to resist similar pressures at the local level
as a result of a Party-level decision to do so.
It would be a very dysfunctional, and failed, administration since it would be unable to control Congress in any meaningful way, but such failure would result in a necessary realignment of the American political spectrum. Maybe it could go from a two party system to a three party system, with the GOP being Trumpist in nature, the Democrats being a centrist party and a super progressive party being formed. Or maybe the GOP would purge Trumpism out of the Party, since it remains to be seen up to what extent is Trump's control of the Party sustainable if he isn't the US President and how large is his constituency in this scenario, and maybe the American two party system survives but both parties emerge having changed in many ways (and perhaps the cultural issues become the largest difference between both, rather than economic or foreign policy).