The Wuhan virus—how are we doing? - Page 11 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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Provision of the two UN HDI indicators other than GNP.
Forum rules: No one line posts please.
#15107717
BeesKnee5 wrote:I'm making no assumptions.

The evidence is that labs only reported positive tests. Not that they reported every test they carried out as positive.


From the FOX 35 Orlando article.

"FOX 35 News went on to speak with the Florida Department of Health on Tuesday. They confirmed that although private and public laboratories are required to report positive and negative results to the state immediately, some have not. Specifically, they said that some smaller, private labs were not reporting negative test result data to the state. "

Your link has misrepresented this as though the number of positive tests is much lower.


The article is about hospital reporting.
#15107721
Wulfschilde wrote:How did you manage to agree with me that they'll get subsidized but also agree with him when he's saying that I'd be making a bad call to invest in Intel?


The investment depends on the time horizon. Generally speaking, Intel is in trouble, but I don't think they are in danger of going out of business or anything. That's my point.

Also, generally speaking, I agree that for the vast majority of people, investing in individual companies is a bad idea.
#15107724
Finfinder wrote:
The article is about hospital reporting.
Yep,
Which makes the claim in your link a lie.

"In recent weeks, the mainstream media has attempted to paint Florida as the new epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, citing such numbers as the alleged increase in positive cases. However, in addition to this new research debunking those numbers"
#15107736
My parents good friends in Florida have also tested positive in the last few days. Wife is asymptomatic, and husband feels mild symptoms thus far.

My mom still has a lingering cough, but she feels fine.

We do not believe they got it from my parents as they haven't seen my parents since well before my parents caught it. It's certainly getting around the block in Florida.
#15107743
Finfinder is not interested in facts. He is looking for some shred of cover for his hero Trump. As he is a Trump drone there is no requirement for him to even give lip service to the truth.

On edit. @Rancid I hope your parents make a complete recovery. Sounds good so far.
#15107860
An interesting chart, though as a national average it doesn't show regional variation:

Image
#15107863
Are you capable of understanding that deaths are a trailing indicator? It seems not.

Further. Your numbers are not separated by age, comorbidity and other factors that affect deaths such as improved treatment.

Since you are not an epidemiologist you do not understand that raw data WRT deaths does not tell the whole story. For example. Yesterday Florida experienced a reported 133 deaths. This is a very bad number. But if one 18 year old, who nobody worries about, gets a mild case of covid and then visits grandpa, who visits grandma in a nursing home, then as much as two months later we could see a devastating spike.

I totally get that people are looking for good news. Trump supporters are desperate for it. That is understandable. I am looking for good news too. But here is the deal @Doug64 . Right now there is very little good news to be had. The government has well and truly fucked the pooch and the Trump administration is just making it worse and worse. Republican governors are making policies that are murderous. Republican legislatures and governors are taking the ability of local authorities to act to protect their communities away from them. Murderous.

So what is the height of pigheadedness. The Republican governor of Oklahoma, a man with the IQ of a moth, has been diagnosed with Covid. He well could have gotten it from the Trump rally, but who knows. He has not been wearing a mask. Go figure. And even with this wake up call, he refuses to order mandatory masks in Oklahoma. Now I could not care less what happens to this arrogant piece of shit. What is a shame though, is that we do not know how long he has been contagious. We do not know how many hundreds of people he has glad handed, not wearing a mask, since he has been contagious. And that is the deal Doug. He has been out potentially killing hundreds of people for no other reason than his fuhrer, Trump, does not like masks because it reminds people that he is incompetent, apathetic or probably both. So governor. I would not piss on you if you were on fire but for the love of God learn something and require masks. You may be the one who dies of your own political crime.

But you go ahead doug. You won't lose your temple recommend over supporting politicians who you know, in your heart, are killing their constituents for votes. You will pull the Trump button on election day. It should be shaped like a trigger.
#15107865
Drlee wrote:Are you capable of understanding that deaths are a trailing indicator?

Yes, about a two week trailing indicator. It has been about a month since the number of cases began to skyrocket, and so far the number of deaths hasn't followed suit. Though we can probably expect at least a bump due to the Independence Day holiday.
#15107866
Yes, about a two week trailing indicator.


Wrong

It has been about a month since the number of cases began to skyrocket, and so far the number of deaths hasn't followed suit.



Wrong. I explained this to you before.
Though we can probably expect at least a bump due to the Independence Day holiday.


Source?

You are fixated with the current death toll. You are not an epidemiologist and, it appears, do not know any other than here on POFO.

I could explain again why you are wrong but I did it once. If you really want to understand I will explain to you what the numbers probably mean and what you should expect from this disease in this stage of pandemic and the future. But you do not want to hear it because it will not feed your desire to alibi Trump and the Republican party in general.

But please stop fishing in the shallow end of the pond.
#15107878
Yesterday was the first time in 5 weeks that the US reported more than 1000 deaths.

The 7 day rolling average reached a low of 515 on 5th July, it's now 760, if deaths are over 1000 today then the rolling average will continue to rise.

Dougs chart using 1st April as a weighted 100 value is laughably transparent.
Why not use 1st March when cases and deaths were close to zero instead of a multiplier based on a single day to distort the chart? The reason is because it allows genuine data to be misrepresented.
#15107881
The 7 day moving average for deaths in West Virginia dropped back to 0 on July 14th. Remember West Virginia is supposed to be full of ignorant White racist, Trump supporters hanging on his every word. These people should be dropping like flies according to the Liberals, the fact they're not is total and utter humiliation for the international Western Liberal establishment.

Some people have pointed out that the Liberal shit hole sanctuary cities, where most of the dying takes place have a higher population density than West Virginia. That's exactly our point, Liberals have been trying to ramp up the population density for decades by flooding our countries with immigrants. They particularly love immigrants from Muslim [rule 3 violation deleted - Prosthetic Conscience] cultures with high birth rates. Liberals then have the audacity to whine on about the consequent fall in quality of life for the indigenous inhabitants.
#15107901
Drlee wrote:I could explain again why you are wrong but I did it once.

As is the case with Trump, I’ve long since stopped giving your posts more than a cursory glance due to the vitriol and invective you regularly spew. It’s not really worth wading through the garbage looking for the gems.

BeesKnee5 wrote:Dougs chart using 1st April as a weighted 100 value is laughably transparent.
Why not use 1st March when cases and deaths were close to zero instead of a multiplier based on a single day to distort the chart? The reason is because it allows genuine data to be misrepresented.

Please back up your assertion.
#15107917
late wrote:He doesn't need to.

You need to show why his assertion is wrong, exaggerated or irrelevant.

Nope, @BeesKnee5 is the one that made an unsupported assertion, he’s the one that needs to back it up.
#15107922
Doug64 wrote:Nope, @BeesKnee5 is the one that made an unsupported assertion, he’s the one that needs to back it up.
Its not unsupported, it's supported by your chart.

I will try a very simple example.

If on a given day the number of deaths is 50 and I use that as a 100 baseline then an increase to 200 would give a result of 400. Which is meaningless except as a function of a single date. Especially if I am comparing it to another figure where I have used a different value as a function of 100.

If however I base a chart on the start of the outbreak and give exact figures rather than a function of 100 the chart is easy to understand and not misleading.
#15107933
@BeesKnee5 I will try a very simple example.


Note that none of the Trump supporters, such as Doug64 have a clue about epidemiology. To them it is just the source of some google charts they can misunderstand and use to support their fallacious opinions.
#15107936
@BeesKnee5 No, the chart shows exactly what has happened.

Image

Since April 1st the number of cases increased by about 50%, gradually decreased to slightly below the previous level, the skyrocketed to two and a half times over the course of around four weeks.

Meanwhile the number of deaths skyrocketed to almost triple their April 1 count, dropped down to their previous level at about the same time as the number of cases about four weeks ago, kept dropping before bumping up for a bit, then dropped further to less than 3/4 their April 1 count before beginning to climb again.
#15107938
Doug64 wrote:@BeesKnee5 No, the chart shows exactly what has happened.

Image

Since April 1st the number of cases increased by about 50%, gradually decreased to slightly below the previous level, the skyrocketed to two and a half times over the course of around four weeks.

Meanwhile the number of deaths skyrocketed to almost triple their April 1 count, dropped down to their previous level at about the same time as the number of cases about four weeks ago, kept dropping before bumping up for a bit, then dropped further to less than 3/4 their April 1 count before beginning to climb again.


How many deaths were there on the 1st April?

How many cases on 1st April?

If I used a different day as my basis for 100, how would that impact the chart?

Why is 1st April more relevant than any other day?

Think very carefully why someone would give you this chart as opposed to the actual figures given by John Hopkins.

The only time converting a value to a standardised 100 is sensible is if you are trying to show the effects of compound interest over time.

I'd love to see where you got your chart from.
#15107942
@BeesKnee5

I get it, you don’t like the difference in the rates of change the chart shows. You might want to consider why that is such a problem for you.
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